scholarly journals Nested conformal prediction and quantile out-of-bag ensemble methods

2021 ◽  
pp. 108496
Author(s):  
Chirag Gupta ◽  
Arun K. Kuchibhotla ◽  
Aaditya Ramdas
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Methods ◽  
Conformal Prediction

scholarly journals Assurance monitoring of learning-enabled cyber-physical systems using inductive conformal prediction based on distance learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-264
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Boursinos ◽  
Xenofon Koutsoukos
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Distance Learning ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Speaker Recognition ◽  
Deep Neural Networks ◽  
Cyber Physical Systems ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Traffic Sign ◽  
Conformal Prediction ◽  
Physical Systems

AbstractMachine learning components such as deep neural networks are used extensively in cyber-physical systems (CPS). However, such components may introduce new types of hazards that can have disastrous consequences and need to be addressed for engineering trustworthy systems. Although deep neural networks offer advanced capabilities, they must be complemented by engineering methods and practices that allow effective integration in CPS. In this paper, we proposed an approach for assurance monitoring of learning-enabled CPS based on the conformal prediction framework. In order to allow real-time assurance monitoring, the approach employs distance learning to transform high-dimensional inputs into lower size embedding representations. By leveraging conformal prediction, the approach provides well-calibrated confidence and ensures a bounded small error rate while limiting the number of inputs for which an accurate prediction cannot be made. We demonstrate the approach using three datasets of mobile robot following a wall, speaker recognition, and traffic sign recognition. The experimental results demonstrate that the error rates are well-calibrated while the number of alarms is very small. Furthermore, the method is computationally efficient and allows real-time assurance monitoring of CPS.

scholarly journals Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Rotation Forest Ensemble Technique with Different Decision Trees in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 238
Author(s):  
Zhice Fang ◽  
Yi Wang ◽  
Gonghao Duan ◽  
Ling Peng
Keyword(s):  
Decision Trees ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Ensemble Methods ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Three Gorges Reservoir Area ◽  
Ratio Method ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Rotation Forest ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Ensemble Technique

This study presents a new ensemble framework to predict landslide susceptibility by integrating decision trees (DTs) with the rotation forest (RF) ensemble technique. The proposed framework mainly includes four steps. First, training and validation sets are randomly selected according to historical landslide locations. Then, landslide conditioning factors are selected and screened by the gain ratio method. Next, several training subsets are produced from the training set and a series of trained DTs are obtained by using a DT as a base classifier couple with different training subsets. Finally, the resultant landslide susceptibility map is produced by combining all the DT classification results using the RF ensemble technique. Experimental results demonstrate that the performance of all the DTs can be effectively improved by integrating them with the RF ensemble technique. Specifically, the proposed ensemble methods achieved the predictive values of 0.012–0.121 higher than the DTs in terms of area under the curve (AUC). Furthermore, the proposed ensemble methods are better than the most popular ensemble methods with the predictive values of 0.005–0.083 in terms of AUC. Therefore, the proposed ensemble framework is effective to further improve the spatial prediction of landslides.

Prioritization of water erosion–prone sub-watersheds using three ensemble methods in Qareaghaj catchment, southern Iran

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Reza Pourghasemi ◽  
Fatemeh Honarmandnejad ◽  
Mahrooz Rezaei ◽  
Mohammad Hassan Tarazkar ◽  
Nitheshnirmal Sadhasivam
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Methods ◽  
Water Erosion ◽  
Southern Iran

scholarly journals ChemBioSim: Enhancing Conformal Prediction of In Vivo Toxicity by Use of Predicted Bioactivities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Garcia de Lomana ◽  
Andrea Morger ◽  
Ulf Norinder ◽  
Roland Buesen ◽  
Robert Landsiedel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Conformal Prediction ◽  
In Vivo Toxicity

scholarly journals Microcanonical and Canonical Ensembles for fMRI Brain Networks in Alzheimer’s Disease

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianjia Wang ◽  
Xichen Wu ◽  
Mingrui Li ◽  
Hui Wu ◽  
Edwin Hancock
Keyword(s):  
Alzheimer’S Disease ◽  
Alzheimer's Disease ◽  
Ensemble Methods ◽  
Brain Regions ◽  
Fmri Data ◽  
Thermal Systems ◽  
Network Construction ◽  
Network Characteristics ◽  
Network Entropy ◽  
Canonical Ensembles

This paper seeks to advance the state-of-the-art in analysing fMRI data to detect onset of Alzheimer’s disease and identify stages in the disease progression. We employ methods of network neuroscience to represent correlation across fMRI data arrays, and introduce novel techniques for network construction and analysis. In network construction, we vary thresholds in establishing BOLD time series correlation between nodes, yielding variations in topological and other network characteristics. For network analysis, we employ methods developed for modelling statistical ensembles of virtual particles in thermal systems. The microcanonical ensemble and the canonical ensemble are analogous to two different fMRI network representations. In the former case, there is zero variance in the number of edges in each network, while in the latter case the set of networks have a variance in the number of edges. Ensemble methods describe the macroscopic properties of a network by considering the underlying microscopic characterisations which are in turn closely related to the degree configuration and network entropy. When applied to fMRI data in populations of Alzheimer’s patients and controls, our methods demonstrated levels of sensitivity adequate for clinical purposes in both identifying brain regions undergoing pathological changes and in revealing the dynamics of such changes.

scholarly journals Analog Ensemble Methods for Improving Satellite-Based Intensity Estimates of Tropical Cyclones

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 830
Author(s):  
William E. Lewis ◽  
Timothy L. Olander ◽  
Christopher S. Velden ◽  
Christopher Rozoff ◽  
Stefano Alessandrini
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Ensemble Methods ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Intensity Maximum ◽  
The North ◽  
The University ◽  
Meteorological Satellite ◽  
Fold Cross Validation

Accurate, reliable estimates of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity are a crucial element in the warning and forecast process worldwide, and for the better part of 50 years, estimates made from geostationary satellite observations have been indispensable to forecasters for this purpose. One such method, the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT), was used to develop analog ensemble (AnEn) techniques that provide more precise estimates of TC intensity with instant access to information on the reliability of the estimate. The resulting methods, ADT-AnEn and ADT-based Error Analog Ensemble (ADTE-AnEn), were trained and tested using seventeen years of historical ADT intensity estimates using k-fold cross-validation with 10 folds. Using only two predictors, ADT-estimated current intensity (maximum wind speed) and TC center latitude, both AnEn techniques produced significant reductions in mean absolute error and bias for all TC intensity classes in the North Atlantic and for most intensity classes in the Eastern Pacific. The ADTE-AnEn performed better for extreme intensities in both basins (significantly so in the Eastern Pacific) and will be incorporated in the University of Wisconsin’s Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS) workflow for further testing during operations in 2021.

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