scholarly journals Are narrow-ranging species doomed to extinction? Projected dramatic decline in future climate suitability of two highly threatened species

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Dubos ◽  
Frederique Montfort ◽  
Clovis Grinand ◽  
Marie Nourtier ◽  
Gregory Deso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Threatened Species ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Dramatic Decline ◽  
Climate Suitability

scholarly journals Are narrow-ranging species doomed to extinction? Dramatic and generalised decline in future climate suitability of highly threatened species

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Dubos ◽  
Frederique Montfort ◽  
Clovis Grinand ◽  
Marie Nourtier ◽  
Gregory Deso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Threatened Species ◽  
Habitat Restoration ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Tropical Environments ◽  
Dramatic Decline ◽  
Climate Suitability ◽  
High Level ◽  
Occurrence Records

Narrow-ranging species are usually omitted from Species distribution models (SDMs) due to statistical constraints, which may be problematic in conservation planning. The recently available high-resolution climate and land use data enable to increase the eligibility of narrow-ranging species for SDMs, provided their distribution is well known. We modelled the distribution of two narrow-ranging species for which the distribution of their occurrence records is assumed to be nearly comprehensive and unbiased (i.e., the Critically Endangered Manapany day gecko Phelsuma inexpectata and the Endangered golden Mantella frog Mantella aurantiaca). We predict a dramatic decline in climate suitability in the whole current distribution area of both species by 2070, potentially leading to a complete extinction even in the most optimistic scenario. We identified the areas with the best climate suitability in the future, but these remain largely suboptimal regarding species climatic niche. The high level of habitat fragmentation suggests that both species likely need to be at least partly translocated. We propose to consider the use of spatially explicit guidelines for translocation and habitat restoration in order to leave the species a chance to adapt and persist. The effect of climate change remains understudied for the extreme majority of rare and highly threatened species. This study suggests that the level of threats of data-poor and narrow-ranging species already identified as threatened may be underestimated, especially in heterogeneous tropical environments. We stress the need to consider the option of implementing proactive actions for threatened narrow-ranging species.

scholarly journals Potential Impact of the Current and Future Climate on the Yield, Quality, and Climate Suitability for Tea [Camellia sinensis (L.) O. Kuntze]: A Systematic Review

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 619
Author(s):  
Sadeeka Layomi Jayasinghe ◽  
Lalit Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Tea Quality ◽  
Climate Suitability ◽  
Yield Quality ◽  
The Impact

Even though climate change is having an increasing impact on tea plants, systematic reviews on the impact of climate change on the tea system are scarce. This review was undertaken to assess and synthesize the knowledge around the impacts of current and future climate on yield, quality, and climate suitability for tea; the historical roots and the most influential papers on the aforementioned topics; and the key adaptation and mitigation strategies that are practiced in tea fields. Our findings show that a large number of studies have focused on the impact of climate change on tea quality, followed by tea yield, while a smaller number of studies have concentrated on climate suitability. Three pronounced reference peaks found in Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy (RYPS) represent the most significant papers associated with the yield, quality, and climate suitability for tea. Tea yield increases with elevated CO2 levels, but this increment could be substantially affected by an increasing temperature. Other climatic factors are uneven rainfall, extreme weather events, and climate-driven abiotic stressors. An altered climate presents both advantages and disadvantages for tea quality due to the uncertainty of the concentrations of biochemicals in tea leaves. Climate change creates losses, gains, and shifts of climate suitability for tea habitats. Further studies are required in order to fill the knowledge gaps identified through the present review, such as an investigation of the interaction between the tea plant and multiple environmental factors that mimic real-world conditions and then studies on its impact on the tea system, as well as the design of ensemble modeling approaches to predict climate suitability for tea. Finally, we outline multifaceted and evidence-based adaptive and mitigation strategies that can be implemented in tea fields to alleviate the undesirable impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals Clearing up the Crystal Ball: Understanding Uncertainty in Future Climate Suitability Projections for Amphibians

Herpetologica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 76 (2) ◽  
pp. 108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda J. Zellmer ◽  
Pavlina Slezak ◽  
Tatum S. Katz
Keyword(s):  
Future Climate ◽  
Crystal Ball ◽  
Climate Suitability

scholarly journals To Be Or Not to Be? Variable selection can change the projected fate of a threatened species under future climate

2013 ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca M. B. Harris ◽  
Luciana L. Porfirio ◽  
Sonia Hugh ◽  
Greg Lee ◽  
Nathan L. Bindoff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Variable Selection ◽  
Threatened Species ◽  
Future Climate

scholarly journals Predicting suitability of regions for Zika outbreaks with zero-inflated models trained using climate data

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha Roth ◽  
Miranda Teboh-Ewungkem ◽  
Ming Li
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Models ◽  
Birth Defect ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Climate Suitability

AbstractIn recent years, Zika spread through the Americas. This virus has been linked to Guillain-Barré syndrome, which can lead to paralysis, and microcephaly, a severe birth defect. Zika is primarily transmitted by Aedes (Ae.) aegypti, a mosquito whose geographic range has expanded and is anticipated to continue shifting as the climate changes.We used statistical models to predict regional suitability for autochthonous Zika transmission using climatic variables. By suitability for Zika, we mean the potential for an outbreak to occur based on the climate’s habitability for Ae. aegypti. We trained zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression models to predict Zika outbreak suitability using 20 subsets of climate variables for 102 regions. Variable subsets were selected for the final models based on importance to Ae. aegypti survival and their performance in aiding prediction of Zika-suitable regions. We determined the two best models to both be ZINB models. The best model’s regressors were winter mean temperature, yearly minimum temperature, and population, and the second-best model’s regressors were winter mean temperature and population.These two models were then run on bias-corrected climate projections to predict future climate suitability for Zika, and they generated reasonable predictions. The predictions find that most of the sampled regions are expected to become more suitable for Zika outbreaks. The regions with the greatest risk have increasingly mild winters and high human populations. These predictions are based on the most extreme scenario for climate change, which we are currently on track for.Author Summary:In recent years, Zika spread through the Americas. This virus has been linked to Guillain-Barré syndrome, which can lead to paralysis, and microcephaly, a severe birth defect. Zika is primarily transmitted by Aedes (Ae.) aegypti, a mosquito whose geographic range has expanded and is anticipated to continue shifting as the climate changes. We used statistical models to predict regional suitability for locally-acquired Zika cases using climatic variables. By suitability for Zika, we mean the potential for an outbreak to occur based on the climate’s habitability for Ae. aegypti. We trained statistical models to predict Zika outbreak suitability using 20 subsets of climate variables for 102 regions. Variable subsets were selected for the final two models based on importance to Ae. aegypti survival and their performance in aiding prediction of Zika-suitable regions. These two models were then run on climate projections to predict future climate suitability for Zika, and they generated reasonable predictions. The predictions find that most of the sampled regions are expected to become more suitable for Zika outbreaks. The regions with the greatest risk have high human populations and increasingly mild winters.

Corrigendum to: The threats to Australia’s imperilled species and implications for a national conservation response

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen G. Kearney ◽  
Josie Carwardine ◽  
April E. Reside ◽  
Diana O. Fisher ◽  
Martine Maron ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Invasive Species ◽  
Biodiversity Conservation ◽  
Threatened Species ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Environment Protection ◽  
Comprehensive Review ◽  
Dramatic Decline ◽  
Taxonomic Groups ◽  
Unique Species

Since European occupation of Australia, human activities have caused the dramatic decline and sometimes extinction of many of the continent's unique species. Here we provide a comprehensive review of threats to species listed as threatened under Australia's Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999. Following accepted global categories of threat, we find that invasive species affect the largest number of listed species (1257 species, or 82% of all threatened species); ecosystem modifications (e.g. fire) (74% of listed species) and agricultural activity (57%) are also important. The ranking of threats was largely consistent across taxonomic groups and the degree of species' endangerment. These results were significantly different (P

Incorporating future climate uncertainty into the identification of climate change refugia for threatened species

2019 ◽  
Vol 237 ◽  
pp. 230-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda J. Beaumont ◽  
Manuel Esperón-Rodríguez ◽  
David. A. Nipperess ◽  
Mareshell Wauchope-Drumm ◽  
John B. Baumgartner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Threatened Species ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Uncertainty

scholarly journals The threats to Australia’s imperilled species and implications for a national conservation response

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen G. Kearney ◽  
Josie Carwardine ◽  
April E. Reside ◽  
Diana O. Fisher ◽  
Martine Maron ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Development ◽  
Threatened Species ◽  
Species Conservation ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Dramatic Decline ◽  
Legislative Support ◽  
Taxonomic Groups ◽  
Unique Species ◽  
National Approach

Since European occupation of Australia, human activities have caused the dramatic decline and sometimes extinction of many of the continent’s unique species. Here we provide a comprehensive review of threats to species listed as threatened under Australia’s Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999. Following accepted global categories of threat, we find that invasive species affect the largest number of listed species (1257 species, or 82% of all threatened species); ecosystem modifications (e.g. fire) (74% of listed species) and agricultural activity (57%) are also important. The ranking of threats was largely consistent across taxonomic groups and the degree of species’ endangerment. These results were significantly different (P<0.01) from recent analyses of threats to threatened species globally, which highlighted overexploitation, agriculture and urban development as major causes of decline. Australia is distinct not only in the biodiversity it contains but also in the extent and mixture of processes that threaten the survival of these species. Notably, the IUCN threat classification scheme separates the numerous threats (e.g. urban development, agriculture, mining) that cause habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation, hence further research is required to quantify the net impact of these types of habitat change. We provide feasible suggestions for a more coordinated national approach to threatened species conservation, which could provide decision makers and managers at all levels with improved resources and information on threats and management. Adequate policy, legislative support and funding are critical for ensuring that on-ground management is successful in halting the decline of Australia’s threatened species.

Modeling future climate suitability for the western blacklegged tick, Ixodes pacificus, in California with an emphasis on land access and ownership

2021 ◽  
pp. 101789
Author(s):  
Micah B. Hahn ◽  
Shane Feirer ◽  
Andrew J. Monaghan ◽  
Robert S. Lane ◽  
Rebecca J. Eisen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Future Climate ◽  
Ixodes Pacificus ◽  
Land Access ◽  
Blacklegged Tick ◽  
Climate Suitability
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