Modeling future climate suitability for the western blacklegged tick, Ixodes pacificus, in California with an emphasis on land access and ownership

2021 ◽  
pp. 101789
Author(s):  
Micah B. Hahn ◽  
Shane Feirer ◽  
Andrew J. Monaghan ◽  
Robert S. Lane ◽  
Rebecca J. Eisen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Future Climate ◽  
Ixodes Pacificus ◽  
Land Access ◽  
Blacklegged Tick ◽  
Climate Suitability

scholarly journals Potential Impact of the Current and Future Climate on the Yield, Quality, and Climate Suitability for Tea [Camellia sinensis (L.) O. Kuntze]: A Systematic Review

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 619
Author(s):  
Sadeeka Layomi Jayasinghe ◽  
Lalit Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Tea Quality ◽  
Climate Suitability ◽  
Yield Quality ◽  
The Impact

Even though climate change is having an increasing impact on tea plants, systematic reviews on the impact of climate change on the tea system are scarce. This review was undertaken to assess and synthesize the knowledge around the impacts of current and future climate on yield, quality, and climate suitability for tea; the historical roots and the most influential papers on the aforementioned topics; and the key adaptation and mitigation strategies that are practiced in tea fields. Our findings show that a large number of studies have focused on the impact of climate change on tea quality, followed by tea yield, while a smaller number of studies have concentrated on climate suitability. Three pronounced reference peaks found in Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy (RYPS) represent the most significant papers associated with the yield, quality, and climate suitability for tea. Tea yield increases with elevated CO2 levels, but this increment could be substantially affected by an increasing temperature. Other climatic factors are uneven rainfall, extreme weather events, and climate-driven abiotic stressors. An altered climate presents both advantages and disadvantages for tea quality due to the uncertainty of the concentrations of biochemicals in tea leaves. Climate change creates losses, gains, and shifts of climate suitability for tea habitats. Further studies are required in order to fill the knowledge gaps identified through the present review, such as an investigation of the interaction between the tea plant and multiple environmental factors that mimic real-world conditions and then studies on its impact on the tea system, as well as the design of ensemble modeling approaches to predict climate suitability for tea. Finally, we outline multifaceted and evidence-based adaptive and mitigation strategies that can be implemented in tea fields to alleviate the undesirable impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals Clearing up the Crystal Ball: Understanding Uncertainty in Future Climate Suitability Projections for Amphibians

Herpetologica ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 76 (2) ◽  
pp. 108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda J. Zellmer ◽  
Pavlina Slezak ◽  
Tatum S. Katz
Keyword(s):  
Future Climate ◽  
Crystal Ball ◽  
Climate Suitability

scholarly journals Predicting suitability of regions for Zika outbreaks with zero-inflated models trained using climate data

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samantha Roth ◽  
Miranda Teboh-Ewungkem ◽  
Ming Li
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Models ◽  
Birth Defect ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Climate Suitability

AbstractIn recent years, Zika spread through the Americas. This virus has been linked to Guillain-Barré syndrome, which can lead to paralysis, and microcephaly, a severe birth defect. Zika is primarily transmitted by Aedes (Ae.) aegypti, a mosquito whose geographic range has expanded and is anticipated to continue shifting as the climate changes.We used statistical models to predict regional suitability for autochthonous Zika transmission using climatic variables. By suitability for Zika, we mean the potential for an outbreak to occur based on the climate’s habitability for Ae. aegypti. We trained zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression models to predict Zika outbreak suitability using 20 subsets of climate variables for 102 regions. Variable subsets were selected for the final models based on importance to Ae. aegypti survival and their performance in aiding prediction of Zika-suitable regions. We determined the two best models to both be ZINB models. The best model’s regressors were winter mean temperature, yearly minimum temperature, and population, and the second-best model’s regressors were winter mean temperature and population.These two models were then run on bias-corrected climate projections to predict future climate suitability for Zika, and they generated reasonable predictions. The predictions find that most of the sampled regions are expected to become more suitable for Zika outbreaks. The regions with the greatest risk have increasingly mild winters and high human populations. These predictions are based on the most extreme scenario for climate change, which we are currently on track for.Author Summary:In recent years, Zika spread through the Americas. This virus has been linked to Guillain-Barré syndrome, which can lead to paralysis, and microcephaly, a severe birth defect. Zika is primarily transmitted by Aedes (Ae.) aegypti, a mosquito whose geographic range has expanded and is anticipated to continue shifting as the climate changes. We used statistical models to predict regional suitability for locally-acquired Zika cases using climatic variables. By suitability for Zika, we mean the potential for an outbreak to occur based on the climate’s habitability for Ae. aegypti. We trained statistical models to predict Zika outbreak suitability using 20 subsets of climate variables for 102 regions. Variable subsets were selected for the final two models based on importance to Ae. aegypti survival and their performance in aiding prediction of Zika-suitable regions. These two models were then run on climate projections to predict future climate suitability for Zika, and they generated reasonable predictions. The predictions find that most of the sampled regions are expected to become more suitable for Zika outbreaks. The regions with the greatest risk have high human populations and increasingly mild winters.

scholarly journals Climate change and coffee: assessing vulnerability by modeling future climate suitability in the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico

2017 ◽  
Vol 146 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 175-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen J. Fain ◽  
Maya Quiñones ◽  
Nora L. Álvarez-Berríos ◽  
Isabel K. Parés-Ramos ◽  
William A. Gould
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Caribbean Island ◽  
Climate Suitability ◽  
The Caribbean

Assessing species reintroduction sites based on future climate suitability for food resources

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel C. Gomides ◽  
Talita M. Machado ◽  
Jôine C. Evangelista‐Vale ◽  
Angele Tatiane Martins‐Oliveira ◽  
João Carlos Pires‐Oliveira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Resources ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Species Reintroduction ◽  
Climate Suitability

Copernicus Sectoral Information System for the Biodiversity Sector

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koen De Ridder ◽  
Filip Lefebre ◽  
Eline Vanuytrecht ◽  
Julie Berckmans ◽  
Hendrik Wouters
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Information System ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Use Cases ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Climate Suitability

<p>Biodiversity is increasingly under pressure from climate change, which affects the habitat suitability for species as well as the efficiency of ecosystem services. Management of these issues, for instance through ecosystem restoration or species dispersal measures, is often hindered by a lack of appropriate information about (future) climate conditions.  To address this, an operational Sectoral Information System (SIS) for the Biodiversity sector (SIS Biodiversity) is designed within the Copernicus programme Climate Change Service (C3S). This new SIS provides tailored bio-climatic indicators and applications, and delivers novel evidence regarding impacts of past, present and future climate. As such, it provides support to decision making challenges that are currently facing unmet climate data needs.<br> <br>The new climate service for SIS Biodiversity will be demonstrated, including the outline, workflow and outcomes of the use cases. The service is built upon the Copernicus Data Store platform (CDS; ), and takes into account (1) the barriers in ongoing bio-climate assessments and (2) the user requirements of diverse stakeholders (e.g. researcher institutes, local NGO’s, the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN),…). These have been collected during workshops and bilateral meetings in 2019. A common barrier is the lack of reliable and high-resolution information about states and dynamics of the soil, sea, ice and air for the past and the future climate. Therefore, the service provides relevant bio-climatic indicators on the basis of a wealth of available variables from the latest ERA5 reanalysis datasets and the CMIP5 global climate projections available in CDS. In order to provide information at high resolution and minimize inconsistencies between observed and modelled variables, different downscaling and bias-correction techniques are applied. A common requirement is a universal and flexible interface to the bio-climatic indicators in an easy-to-use and coherent platform that is applicable for different fauna and flora species of interest. Therefore, different applications have been developed within CDS for generating bio-climate suitability envelopes from the high-resolution indicators and to evaluate climate suitability and impacts for the species under present and future climate. Finally, the service is currently tested and refined on the basis of specific use cases. Special attention is given to their transferability to other global and topical studies, hence maximizing external user uptake throughout existing research and policy networks.</p>

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