Forecasting peak smooth sunspot number of solar cycle 25: A method based on even-odd pair of solar cycle

2021 ◽  
pp. 105359
Author(s):  
Bharati Kakad ◽  
Amar Kakad
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Sunspot Number

Regression Analysis of Sunspot Numbers for the Solar Cycle 24 in Comparison to Previous Three Cycles

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 477-483
Author(s):  
Debojyoti Halder
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Sunspot Numbers ◽  
Solar Cycle 24 ◽  
Current Cycle ◽  
Cycle 24

Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the photosphere of the Sun which appear visibly as dark spots compared to surrounding regions. Sunspot populations usually rise fast but fall more slowly when observed for any particular solar cycle. The sunspot numbers for the current cycle 24 and the previous three cycles have been plotted for duration of first four years for each of them. It appears that the value of peak sunspot number for solar cycle 24 is smaller than the three preceding cycles. When regression analysis is made it exhibits a trend of slow rising phase of the cycle 24 compared to previous three cycles. Our analysis further shows that cycle 24 is approaching to a longer-period but with smaller occurrences of sunspot number.

Mid-term Periodicities in Solar Radio Emission Corresponding to Sunspot Number During Solar Cycle 23

Solar Physics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 296 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahender Aroori ◽  
Panditi Vemareddy ◽  
Partha Chowdhury ◽  
Ganji Yellaiah
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Radio Emission ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
Solar Radio ◽  
Solar Radio Emission ◽  
Solar Cycle 23

scholarly journals Seasonal, Diurnal, and Solar-Cycle Variations of Electron Density at Two West Africa Equatorial Ionization Anomaly Stations

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frédéric Ouattara ◽  
Doua Allain Gnabahou ◽  
Christine Amory Mazaudier
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Ultraviolet Radiation ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
Extreme Ultraviolet ◽  
Cycle Phase ◽  
Significant Variability ◽  
Equatorial Ionization Anomaly ◽  
Significant Difference

We analyse the variability of foF2 at two West Africa equatorial ionization anomaly stations (Ouagadougou and Dakar) during three solar cycles (from cycle 20 to cycle 22), that is, from 1966 to 1998 for Ouagadougou and from 1971 to 1997 for Dakar. We examine the effect of the changing levels of solar extreme ultraviolet radiation with sunspot number. The study shows high correlation between foF2 and sunspot number (Rz). The correlation coefficient decreases from cycle 20 to cycle 21 at both stations. From cycle 21 to cycle 22 it decreases at Ouagadougou station and increases at Dakar station. The best correlation coefficient, 0.990, is obtained for Dakar station during solar cycle 22. The seasonal variation displays equinoctial peaks that are asymmetric between March and September. The percentage deviations of monthly average data from one solar cycle to another display variability with respect to solar cycle phase and show solar ultraviolet radiation variability with solar cycle phase. The diurnal variation shows a noon bite out with a predominant late-afternoon peak except during the maximum phase of the solar cycle. The diurnal Ouagadougou station foF2 data do not show a significant difference between the increasing and decreasing cycle phases, while Dakar station data do show it, particularly for cycle 21. The percentage deviations of diurnal variations from solar-minimum conditions show more ionosphere during solar cycle 21 at both stations for all three of the other phases of the solar cycle. There is no significant variability of ionosphere during increasing and decreasing solar cycle phases at Ouagadougou station, but at Dakar station there is a significant variability of ionosphere during these two solar-cycle phases.

scholarly journals Solar Wind Helium Abundance Heralds Solar Cycle Onset

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin L Alterman ◽  
Justin C Kasper ◽  
Robert J Leamon ◽  
Scott W McIntosh
Keyword(s):  
Solar Wind ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
Cycle Length ◽  
Phase Lag ◽  
Helium Abundance ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Solar Wind Acceleration ◽  
Solar Cycle Length

Abstract We study the solar wind helium-to-hydrogen abundance's ( A He ) relationship to solar cycle onset. Using OMNI/Lo data, we show that A He increases prior to sunspot number (SSN) minima. We also identify a rapid depletion and recovery in A He that occurs directly prior to cycle onset. This A He Shutoff happens at approximately the same time across solar wind speeds ( v sw ) and the time between successive A He shutoffs is typically on the order of the corresponding solar cycle length. In contrast to A He 's v sw -dependent phase lag with respect to SSN (Alterman and Kasper, 2019), A He Shutoff's concurrence across v sw likely implies it is independent of solar wind acceleration and driven by a mechanism near or below the photosphere. Using Brightpoint (BP) measurements to provide context, we infer that this shutoff is likely related to the overlap of adjacent solar cycles and the equatorial flux cancelation of the older, extended solar cycle during solar minima.

ESTABLISHING SOLAR ACTIVITY TREND FOR SOLAR CYCLES 21 – 24

2021 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 100-106
Author(s):  
A.K. Singh ◽  
◽  
A. Bhargawa ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Lyman Alpha ◽  
Rate Versus ◽  
Alpha Index

Solar-terrestrial environment is manifested primarily by the physical conditions of solar interior, solar atmosphere and eruptive solar plasma. Each parameter gives unique information about the Sun and its activity according to its defined characteristics. Hence the variability of solar parameters is of interest from the point of view of plasma dynamics on the Sun and in the interplanetary space as well as for the solar-terrestrial physics. In this study, we have analysed various solar transients and parameters to establish the recent trends of solar activity during solar cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24. The correlation coefficients of linear regression of F10.7 cm index, Lyman alpha index, Mg II index, cosmic ray intensity, number of M & X class flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occurrence rate versus sunspot number was examined for last four solar cycles. A running cross-correlation method has been used to study the momentary relationship among the above mentioned solar activity parameters. Solar cycle 21 witnessed the highest value of correlation for F10.7 cm index, Lyman alpha index and number of M-class and X-class flares versus sunspot number among all the considered solar cycles which were 0.979, 0.935 and 0.964 respectively. Solar cycle 22 recorded the highest correlation in case of Mg II index, Ap index and CMEs occurrence rate versus sunspot number among all the considered solar cycles (0.964, 0.384 and 0.972 respectively). Solar cycle 23 and 24 did not witness any highest correlation compared to solar cycle 21 and 22. Further the record values (highest value compared to other solar three cycles) of each solar activity parameters for each of the four solar cycles have been studied. Here solar cycle 24 has no record text at all, this simply indicating that this cycle was a weakest cycle compared to the three previous ones. We have concluded that in every domain solar 24 was weaker to its three predecessors.

The Impact of Sunspots Number on Critical Frequencies foF2 for the IONOSPHERIC Layer-F2 Over Erbil Station During the Down Phase of Solar Cycle 24

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 157-168
Author(s):  
Wafaa H.A. Zaki
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
Critical Frequency ◽  
Radio Communication ◽  
Ionospheric Layer ◽  
Solar Cycle 24 ◽  
Critical Frequency Fof2 ◽  
Cycle 24 ◽  
The Impact

The ionosphere layer (F2) is known as the most important layer for High frequency (Hf) radio communication because it is a permanent layer and excited during the day and night so it is able to reflect the frequencies at night and day due to its high critical frequency, and this layer is affected by daily and monthly solar activity. In this study the characteristics and behavior of F2 layer during Solar cycle 24 were studied, the effect of Sunspots number (Ri) on the critical frequency (foF2), were investigated for the years (2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020) which represents the down phase of the solar cycle 24 over Erbil station (36° N, 44° E) by finding the critical frequency (foF2) values, the layer’ s impression times are determined for the days of solstice as well as equinox, where the solar activity was examined for the days of the winter and summer solstice and the days of the spring and autumn equinoxes for a period of 24 hours by applied the International Reference Ionosphere model IRI (2016). The output data for foF2 were verified by using the IRI-Ne- Quick option by specifying the time, date and Sunspot number parameters. Statistical analysis was caried out through the application of the Minitab (version 2018) in order to find the correlation between the critical frequency (foF2) of Ionospheric layer F2 and Sunspot number. It was concluded that the correlation is strong and positive, this indicate that critical frequency (foF2) increase with increasing Sunspots number (Ri) for solar cycle 24.

scholarly journals Solar Activity and Global Temperature

1994 ◽  
Vol 143 ◽  
pp. 339-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eigil Friis-Christensen ◽  
Knud Lassen
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
Cycle Length ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Energy Output ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Reconstructed Temperature ◽  
Solar Cycle Length

A major problem in the determination of the magnitude of a possible solar effect on climate is that no physical parameter of solar energy output exists that has been observed long enough to be used for long-term analyses. Therefore, a number of indirect parameters have been proposed, with the sunspot number as the most commonly used parameter. Recently it has been suggested that climatic effects may be more directly associated with the length of the solar cycle. Whereas the magnitude of the sunspot number is only believed to be reliable back to 1750, determination of solar activity minima may be based on other types of data. A recent reconstructed series of solar cycle lengths back to 1500 gives new information about solar activity in particular before and during the Maunder Minimum. A comparison with reconstructed temperature records has revealed that the good agreement between the solar cycle length and the global temperature found for the modern instrumental temperature record is also characteristic for the total series of reconstructed temperature data. A further result is that the response of the temperature during the pre-instrumental era is the same as for the modern temperature record. This finding confirms the close association beween terrestrial temperature and solar activity measured in terms of the solar cycle length.

scholarly journals Coronal mass ejections and sunspot number over solar cycle 24

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Preetam Singh Gour ◽  
Shiva Anon ◽  
Devangana Shyamlan Chaturvedi
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
Coronal Mass Ejections ◽  
Solar Cycle 24 ◽  
Cycle 24

scholarly journals Apparent solar diameter and variability

1997 ◽  
Vol 181 ◽  
pp. 265-273 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Vigouroux
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Sunspot Number ◽  
Solar Physics ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Solar Diameter ◽  
Total Irradiance ◽  
Pertinent Information

Philippe Delache brought me to solar physics in late June 1992. The first things he began with was the diameter of the Sun as it is measured at the “plateau de Calern”, and my first work was to analyze this time series in order to separate the “noise” from the pertinent information (section 2). Wet then applied the technique developed for this purpose to the study of the 11-year solar cycle as seen in the Wolf sunspot number (section 3) and I continued in collaboration with Judit Pap with the study of total irradiance and some other solar indicators which could help to understand its variations (section 4).

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