Impact of climate and land use change on water availability and reservoir management: Scenarios in the Upper Aragón River, Spanish Pyrenees

As many local and state governments in the United States grapple with increasing growth pressures, the need to understand the economic and institutional factors underlying these pressures has taken on added urgency. From an economic perspective, individual land use decisions play a central role in the manifestation of growth pressures, as changes in land use pattern are the cumulative result of numerous individual decisions regarding the use of lands. In this study, the issue of growth management is addressed by developing a spatially disaggregated, microeconomic model of land conversion decisions suitable for describing residential land use change at the rural-urban fringe. The model employs parcel-level data on land use in Calvert County, Maryland, a rapidly growing rural-urban fringe county. A probabilistic model of residential land use change is estimated using a duration model, and the parameter estimates are employed to simulate possible future growth scenarios under alternative growth management scenarios. Results suggest that “smart growth” objectives are best met when policies aimed at concentrating growth in target areas are implemented in tandem with policies designed to preserve rural or open space lands.

Download Full-text

Aerial and surface rivers: downwind impacts on water availability from land use changes in Amazonia

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-22-911-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 22 (1) ◽

pp. 911-927 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Wei Weng ◽

Matthias K. B. Luedeke ◽

Delphine C. Zemp ◽

Tobia Lakes ◽

Juergen P. Kropp

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Water Availability ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Rainfall Runoff ◽

Runoff Changes ◽

Current Water ◽

Spatially Varying ◽

Land Water

Abstract. The abundant evapotranspiration provided by the Amazon forests is an important component of the hydrological cycle, both regionally and globally. Since the last century, deforestation and expanding agricultural activities have been changing the ecosystem and its provision of moisture to the atmosphere. However, it remains uncertain how the ongoing land use change will influence rainfall, runoff, and water availability as findings from previous studies differ. Using moisture tracking experiments based on observational data, we provide a spatially detailed analysis recognizing potential teleconnection between source and sink regions of atmospheric moisture. We apply land use scenarios in upwind moisture sources and quantify the corresponding rainfall and runoff changes in downwind moisture sinks. We find spatially varying responses of water regimes to land use changes, which may explain the diverse results from previous studies. Parts of the Peruvian Amazon and western Bolivia are identified as the sink areas most sensitive to land use change in the Amazon and we highlight the current water stress by Amazonian land use change on these areas in terms of the water availability. Furthermore, we also identify the influential source areas where land use change may considerably reduce a given target sink's water reception (from our example of the Ucayali River basin outlet, rainfall by 5–12 % and runoff by 19–50 % according to scenarios). Sensitive sinks and influential sources are therefore suggested as hotspots for achieving sustainable land–water management.

Download Full-text

Land-Use Conflicts as a Result of Land-Use Change in the Central Spanish Pyrenees: A Review

Mountain Research and Development ◽

10.2307/3673658 ◽

1993 ◽

Vol 13 (3) ◽

pp. 295 ◽

Cited By ~ 31

Author(s):

Jose M. Garcia-Ruiz ◽

Teodoro Lasanta-Martinez

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Land Use Conflicts ◽

Spanish Pyrenees

Download Full-text

Evaluation of effectiveness of the water management strategies with the focus on agricultural water use: A case study on Upper-Sakarya River Basin in Turkey

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-16055 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Beyza Özel ◽

Yasemin Demir ◽

Oğuz Başkan ◽

Emre Alp

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Availability ◽

Irrigation Water ◽

Cropping Pattern ◽

Management Scenarios ◽

Efficient Management ◽

Sakarya River ◽

Technical Measures

<p>Water, energy and food nexus is an integrated framework suggests that the security of one resource is inevitably linked to another&#8217;s. Water availability assures healthy food production whereas agriculture is the dominant user of global freshwater. Water stress due to population growth, climate change or malpractices threatens food security. Within the scope of water for food governance, the water efficiency of agricultural irrigation has to be improved to aid sustainable water and agricultural management. The study investigates water availability and withdrawals, evaluates water resources management scenarios in the agricultural sector in the Sakarya River Basin, Turkey&#8217;s third-largest river basin. Demand-oriented management scenarios propose a variety of technical measures which include improvements in irrigation technology, shifts in the cropping pattern and water-saving irrigation strategies. The effectiveness of scenarios was evaluated using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system developed for the upper sub-basin where significant agricultural activities are held with approximately 1 million ha of total effective arable land. WEAP is an integrated water resources system modeling that operates based on the principle of water balance accounting. A climate data set of precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were applied across each sub-basin, partitioned into land-use classes. A one dimensional, two-bucket model for each land-use class transmits water as surface runoff, interflow, percolation, baseflow and evapotranspiration components. The model was calibrated and validated for observed streamflow, reservoir volume, and irrigation water amount. The mean annual precipitation and evapotranspiration in the upper sub-basin are 387 mm/a and 245 mm/a respectively. Agriculture is the dominant user of both surface water and groundwater resources and accounts for the %88 of total water withdrawals in the upper sub-basin. Impacts of agricultural management on irrigation water supply and flow dynamics of streamflow gauges were evaluated upon each measure. When compared to a historic baseline scenario, efficient management measures can save irrigation water up to %10 by shifting crop patterns from sunflower to safflower, %6 by establishing drip irrigation instead of sprinkler, %4 by applying deficient irrigation on cereal cultivated areas. Furthermore, mean streamflow increases by %8 in June where deficient irrigation strategy is practiced on cereals, by %9 in October where cropping pattern is shifted from sunflower to safflower. After a review of various technical measures related to the efficient management of water resources, the study concluded that sustainable agricultural development is possible by adapting conservative agricultural practices that assure water and food security.</p>

Download Full-text

Trends in high flows in the central Spanish Pyrenees: response to climatic factors or to land-use change?

Hydrological Sciences Journal ◽

10.1623/hysj.51.6.1039 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 51 (6) ◽

pp. 1039-1050 ◽

Cited By ~ 78

Author(s):

J. I. LÓPEZ-MORENO ◽

S. BEGUERÍA ◽

J. M. GARCÍA-RUIZ

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Spanish Pyrenees ◽

High Flows

Download Full-text

System Dynamic Approach to Support Decision in Maintaining Water Availability (Case Study in Aek Silang Sub-Watershed, the Lake of Toba)

Forum Geografi ◽

10.23917/forgeo.v30i2.2719 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 30 (2) ◽

pp. 184 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Irwan Valentinus Sihotang ◽

S Sudarmadji ◽

Ig.L. Setyawan Purnama ◽

Muhammad Baiquni

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Population Growth ◽

Water Availability ◽

Dynamic Modelling ◽

Actual Condition ◽

Hydrological Process ◽

Availability Analysis ◽

Rainfall Change

Water availability is immensely affected by the correlation among land use change, rainfall change, and population growth. One of analysis tools to discover how the correlation goes on in a hydrological process is by dynamic modelling approaching. The dynamic modelling result can be used for a substructure in decisions making as supports to maintain water availability for fulfilling domestic needs, agriculture, and Micro-Hydro Power (MHP). The aims of this study are to evaluate water availability as a long-term impact on land use change, rainfall change, and population growth with dynamic modelling and as a scenario which is required as basic information to make decisions in maintaining water availability. Analysis method which is applied in this study is dynamic modelling to long term evaluate water availability and validate using Mean Average Percentage Error method (MAPE). The analysis showed that the combination of rainfall of 2312.09 mm/yr, rainfall intensity of 0.340 mm/h, population growth rate of 7.23%, declined forest area of 1.513 ha/yr, declined shrub/unproductive land of 318.113 ha/yr, increased agricultural land of 7.627 ha/yr, and increased settlement area of 0.473 ha/yr, yielded the estimation of the fail in sustaining water sources in 2090 or the next 79 years from 2011 since the water deficit has reached approximately 3,249,881.02 m3. The value of validation modelling with MAPE method is 8.90, it is a dynamic modelling which is managed nearly the same with actual condition.

Download Full-text

Modeling Future Land Use Development: A Lithuanian Case

Land ◽

10.3390/land10040360 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 360

Author(s):

Gintautas Mozgeris ◽

Daiva Juknelienė

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Ghg Emissions ◽

National Forest Inventory ◽

Policy Implications ◽

Co2 Absorption ◽

Management Scenarios ◽

Land Use Development ◽

Methodological Principles

Effective management decisions regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may be hampered by the lack of scientific tools for modeling future land use change. This study addresses methodological principles for land use development scenario modeling assumed for use in processes of GHG accounting and management. Associated land use policy implications in Lithuania are also discussed. Data on land uses, available from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and collected for GHG accounting from the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector in the country, as well as freely available geographic information, were tested as an input for modeling land use development in the country. The modeling was implemented using the TerrSet Land Change Modeler. Calibration of the modeling approach using historical land use data indicated that land use types important for GHG management in the LULUCF sector were predicted with an accuracy above 80% during a five-year period into the future, while the prediction accuracy for forest and built-up land was 96% or more. Based on several land management scenarios tested, it was predicted that the LULUCF sector in Lithuania will accumulate CO2, with the forest land use type contributing most to CO2 absorption. Key measures to improve the GHG balance and carbon stock changes were suggested to be the afforestation of abandoned or unused agricultural land and prevention of the conversion of grassland into producing land.

Download Full-text

Evaluation of land use change predictions using CA-Markov model and management scenarios

10.1016/b978-0-323-89861-4.00017-8 ◽

2022 ◽

pp. 105-115

Author(s):

Hassan Khavarian Nehzak ◽

Maryam Aghaei ◽

Raoof Mostafazadeh ◽

Hamidreza Rabiei-Dastjerdi

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Markov Model ◽

Management Scenarios

Download Full-text

Application of a Macroscale Hydrologic Model to Estimate Streamflow across Southeast Australia

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-11-0114.1 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 1233-1250 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

Fangfang Zhao ◽

Francis H. S. Chiew ◽

Lu Zhang ◽

Jai Vaze ◽

Jean-Michel Perraud ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Water Availability ◽

Hydrologic Model ◽

Estimation Methods ◽

Spatial Proximity ◽

Ungauged Catchments ◽

Southeast Australia ◽

Parameter Values ◽

The Impact

Abstract Reliable predictions of water availability and streamflow characteristics, and the impact of climate and land use change on water availability, are central to water resources planning and management. This paper assesses the application of the widely used macroscale hydrologic model, the three-layer Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC-3L), to estimate daily streamflow in 191 unregulated catchments across southeast Australia and evaluates the regionalization of model parameters to predict streamflow in ungauged catchments. The parameter values in the VIC-3L model are estimated using three methods: default values, optimized values based on model calibration, and regionalized values based on spatial proximity method. The modeled streamflows from VIC-3L are assessed against the observed streamflows from the catchments. The authors discuss the model performance based on different parameter estimation methods and the effects of rainfall regimes on streamflow prediction. Also the implication of using a priori estimates of parameter values versus optimizing parameter values against observed streamflow to predict the impact of climate and land use change on streamflow is discussed. The VIC-3L model can simulate the streamflow in the catchments across southeast Australia reasonably well, with comparable results to those reported for the same region using conceptual rainfall-runoff models. The model performed better in summer-dominant rainfall catchments and wet catchments than in other catchments. The regionalization based on spatial proximity method performed reasonably well, which demonstrated the potential of VIC-3L model to predict streamflow in ungauged catchments in Australia.

Download Full-text