scholarly journals The world economy in the 1990s: a long-run perspective

2010 ◽  
pp. 21-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Crafts
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World

The Role of Technological Change in the Long-run Global Economy Forecasting

2013 ◽  
pp. 97-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Apokin
Keyword(s):  
Technological Change ◽  
Data Quality ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Qualitative Approaches ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
National Economies

The author compares several quantitative and qualitative approaches to forecasting to find appropriate methods to incorporate technological change in long-range forecasts of the world economy. A?number of long-run forecasts (with horizons over 10 years) for the world economy and national economies is reviewed to outline advantages and drawbacks for different ways to account for technological change. Various approaches based on their sensitivity to data quality and robustness to model misspecifications are compared and recommendations are offered on the choice of appropriate technique in long-run forecasts of the world economy in the presence of technological change.

FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION OF THE WORLD ECONOMY

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamara Makukh ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Credit System ◽  
Early Effect ◽  
Economic Productivity ◽  
Total Debt ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Debt Market

The article analyses the main trends in the world economy through the prism of the current global financial and credit system. Various forecasts for the development of the world economy were assessed and noted that they do not correspond to real trends and patterns. These forecasts cannot assess the conceptual principles of the structure of the financial and credit base of the economy. Such forecasting is carried out on the principles of the achieved indicators and the developed methods of estimation of disturbances in the financial markets. The specificity of the state of the debt market is indicated, which allows to develop the economy only by increasing the total debt obligations, which leads to a complete loss of profitability of debt securities. It is proved that no defaults and debt write-offs do not renew the economy; these instruments only restart the mechanism of holding the debt market. Such development is a direct consequence of liberal regulation and a departure from the full functions of money, which leads to a conceptual change in the paradigm of the financial system. The limitations of the dominant concept of the financial and credit system, which was based on the basic foundations of the Bretton Woods Conference, were revealed. Criteria for financial regulation of a market economy have been identified and substantiated, which have exhausted their effectiveness and do not guarantee an early effect, but are only immediate. It is noted that the global pandemic and financial infusions to overcome it are a tool for accumulating total debt in the long run. The primary measures for debt restructuring are indicated, namely the support of low-debt fundamental companies that will meet the objective basic needs of innovative companies. Factors of economic development are explained: growth of economic productivity, short-term and long-term credit cycles and political component. It is indicated that productivity determines the priority of society's development in the long run, and the element of its implementation is knowledge in the absence of political dictate, which will form a new financial and credit mechanism. High-tech knowledge is needed to ensure productivity development, so investing in education and knowledge without different dogmas can bring the world economy to a new level of efficiency.

scholarly journals Global Economic Meltdown: Greenspan�s Legacy

2009 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 9-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samir K Barua ◽  
Mahendra R Gujarathi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Fair Value Accounting ◽  
Cautionary Note ◽  
Monetary Expansion ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Insight Into

In the event of statedly the deepest global crisis ever since the Great Depression, with the world economy mired in a severe economic meltdown, Samir K Barua and Mahendra R Gujarathi identify the factors and the players that incubated and nurtured the meltdown. The policies of deregulation, monetary expansion, and fair value accounting are specifically addressed in a historical perspective. The authors offer an insight into how sequentially the lawmakers first created the potent environment for risk-taking through unrestrained deregulation, the Federal Reserve then set the stage for the crisis with a policy of unbridled monetary expansion, and the accounting standardsetter finally relaxed norms to provide support for hiding the losses incurred� thus together fuelling the crisis. Although several trillions of dollars have been pumped into the market to maintain the credit flow, it is yet uncertain as to how the crisis will impact in the long run, the authors conclude on a cautionary note.

scholarly journals GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE FOR BUSINESS UNDER CONDITIONS OF THE CHALLENGES OF THE 21ST CENTURY

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Оleksandra Viter ◽  
Oksana Kylyn ◽  
Natalia Sveleba
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Business Survival ◽  
Credit Lines ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The World

The article analyzes the current state of the tourism business market. Crisis phenomena in tourism caused by COVID-19 are considered. It is noted that the outbreak of coronavirus has caused a significant blow to the world economy and as a result it affects key sectors of the economy. According to experts, the current crisis has a much greater sudden financial impact than on September 11 and the crisis of 2009 combined. It was found that according to UN WTO forecasts in 2020 the number of international tourists due to the coronavirus pandemic decreased by 20-30% compared to 2019. According to the updated IMF forecast, in 2020 world GDP will shrink by 4.9%, the world economy will lose $ 12.5 trillion. The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) is calling for more funds to rehabilitate and support the tourism industry so that it can become a leader in economic recovery. The purpose of the measures implemented by governments during this difficult period can be divided into the following categories: to ensure a balance between the protection of tourists and the interests of tourism workers; provide conditions for business survival and targeted support and recovery of the tourism sector. Most countries focus on both approaches. Countries with more developed economies rely mainly on affordable credit lines which will restore the competitiveness of the national economy in a short period of time. Other countries are focusing on delaying tax and debt obligations, which could negatively affect the economy in the long run and lead to long-term budget deficits and general solvency problems. In order to stabilize the economic situation, governments adopt a range of both monetary and fiscal measures that can partially provide the conditions for business survival, as the tourism industry can become one of the drivers that helps the economy emerge from the crisis and can quickly create new jobs after crisis situations. Therefore, it is important that the measures taken by states to support the tourism business, the implementation of which will reduce the level of negative impact of the pandemic on the economy of the tourism industry.

The Economics of Distortions and the Problem of Measurability: Evidence from Nigeria

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Lionel Effiom ◽  
Ubi Peter Samuel ◽  
Emmanuel O Okon
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Basis ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Perfect Competition ◽  
Incentive Systems ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World

The Nigerian economy has been characterized by various forms of distortions, mostly structural, arising from dysfunctional institutions and incentive systems. Distortions and imperfections generally mean any deviation from the assumptions of perfect competition. The degree to which a market or industry can be described as competitive depends in part on the ease with which new businesses can enter and exit a particular market in the long run. This paper therefore is burdened with the objective of examining the extent of this digression. Through a descriptive methodology, it provides a theoretical basis through which these distortions can be measured, and its findings establishes evidences of distortions in the Nigerian economy across various sectors including the power/energy, financial and the banking sectors. Specific and wider implications on the Nigerian as well as the world economy have been highlighted, namely the exportation of these distortionary tendencies to the rest of Africa and the world via the oil nexus.

Long-run growth scenarios for the world economy

2010 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romain Duval ◽  
Christine de la Maisonneuve
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World

The management of surplus capacity: or how does theory stand up to protectionism 1970s style?

1979 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 303-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Strange
Keyword(s):  
International Economic ◽  
Political Economy ◽  
Political System ◽  
Multinational Enterprises ◽  
World Economy ◽  
International Political Economy ◽  
State Involvement ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
The World

Contemporary trends toward protectionism seem not merely to represent a passing phase in the world political economy but reflect widespread resistance to deep-seated structural change. In three major sectors of the world economy characterized by surplus capacity—textiles, steel, and shipbuilding—state policies increasingly challenge liberal, market-oriented economic arrangements. The emergence of restrictive arrangements in these areas is still primarily organized nationally: multinational enterprises do not dominate economic activity. Conflict among firms over market shares is reflected, therefore, in conflict among governments. Such conflict may be temporarily resolved through market-sharing agreements, but these are inherently unstable. Increasing state involvement is likely in the long run to exacerbate the problems of capitalism and to increase conflict over international economic issues. These adverse developments will call further into question theories of international political economy that assume compatibility between a liberal, market-oriented international economic system and a state-oriented international political system.

scholarly journals Digital Franchising and Entrepreneurship:Effects of Digital Technology on the Relations of Business Process Participants

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 3892-3896
Keyword(s):  
Business Process ◽  
Digital Technology ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Operational Environment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
New Knowledge ◽  
The World ◽  
Operational Processes

One of the most popular forms of business in many industries of the world economy is franchising. The advance of franchising has changed the operational environment for economic entities and created the need to adjust operational processes, generate new knowledge and implement them in operations. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the potential of digital franchising and involved drivers of growth exploited by innovative franchisers in the long run. The paper provides an analysis and specifies the theoretical aspects of operating digital franchising by an entrepreneurial enterprise. The drivers of growth exploited by innovative franchisers in the long run are determined. Digital franchising trends are profiled against the backdrop of digitalisation of the world economy.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF NEW TRADE AGENDA TO MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF INDONESIA AND JAPAN IN SHORT AND LONG TERM

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-202
Author(s):  
Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Main Concern ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Unfavorable Condition ◽  
The Impact

The swings of global trade in recent decades have been resulted from the global economic crisis and unfavorable condition of global situation. Deterioration of private demand -- as a result of economic crisis and increase of unemployment – has been the main reason of worsening global trade. This condition has, of course, affected economic performance of countries through trade channels. Furthermore, the recent trade agenda following to Trump administration has created another uncertainty to the world economy. This paper studies the impact of new trade agenda, which is represented by Trump’s plan on trade policy, to the world economy as well as to Indonesian and Japanese economy in particular. The analysis is based on computable general equilibrium of GTAP model version 6, with two scenarios: (i) Trump Trade Agenda when implementing 45 and 35 percent tariff to China and Mexico; (ii) Trade Hit List when imposing tariff to the 16 countries in the trade hit list. Impacts of both scenarios are examined in short run and long run. The results suggest that both scenarios in the short run will not create any significant effect to global economy as whole nor to Indonesian and Japan in particular. However, their impacts to the global economy, Indonesia, and Japan will be substantial in the long run. Therefore, Indonesia and Japan in particular should concern on providing sound economic policies to reduce the risk of new trade agenda to these economies in the long run. Some policy recommendation provided in this paper are: (i) Japan should focus on improving technological innovation to realize the implementation of society 5.0 and industry 4.0 as scheduled; (ii) Indonesia should facilitate more investment to its economy and provide more government investment to induce accumulation of capital stock in the future. Furthermore, efficiencies and technological adoption should also be main concern of the Indonesian government to induce productivity of the economy and help mitigate the global risks in the long run.

Japan Liberalization of Policy on Foreign Investment

1967 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1164-1173
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Capital Movements ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Cooperative Relationship ◽  
National Economies ◽  
Relationship Of

We joined the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) in 1964, because we are convinced that with the increasing interdependence of the economic communities of the world, a closer cooperation among the various national economies would contribute to the development of the respective economies and, in the long run, of the world economy itself and to the peaceful and cooperative relationship among the peoples of the world, and because we judged it was necessary for us, in the interest of the long-range development of our economy, to make efforts for creating a firm relationship of cooperation between our economy and those of other countries and for maintaining and expanding the freedom of capital movements as well as of current invisible operations.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document