The Role of Technological Change in the Long-run Global Economy Forecasting

2013 ◽  
pp. 97-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Apokin

The author compares several quantitative and qualitative approaches to forecasting to find appropriate methods to incorporate technological change in long-range forecasts of the world economy. A?number of long-run forecasts (with horizons over 10 years) for the world economy and national economies is reviewed to outline advantages and drawbacks for different ways to account for technological change. Various approaches based on their sensitivity to data quality and robustness to model misspecifications are compared and recommendations are offered on the choice of appropriate technique in long-run forecasts of the world economy in the presence of technological change.

1967 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1164-1173

We joined the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) in 1964, because we are convinced that with the increasing interdependence of the economic communities of the world, a closer cooperation among the various national economies would contribute to the development of the respective economies and, in the long run, of the world economy itself and to the peaceful and cooperative relationship among the peoples of the world, and because we judged it was necessary for us, in the interest of the long-range development of our economy, to make efforts for creating a firm relationship of cooperation between our economy and those of other countries and for maintaining and expanding the freedom of capital movements as well as of current invisible operations.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 40-49
Author(s):  
E.V. Potekhina ◽  
◽  
A.D. Efremova ◽  

the article examines such topical problems of the world economy as the peculiarities of interaction between the subjects of the world economy, international trade, international monetary and financial relations, the role of the exchange rate for national economies. The issues of the national economy of the Russian Federation and the degree of the country’s participation in the international division of labor and its openness are considered. In this paper, using the example of Russia, the export of goods and services is analyzed, its relationship with a number of factors (exchange rate and oil price), where the main tools are methods of statistical and econometric analysis.


Author(s):  
Anna Zorska

The article aims at an analysis of changes in development of globalization which took place during the 2007-2008 crisis and the following years of the economic slowdown. The analysis is conducted against the background of the situation in the world economy and includes investigation of changes (dynamics and structures) in global flows of merchandise, exports of services and foreign direct investments. The structural transformation of global flows indicates the increasing share and role of China in the world economy. The significance of transnational corporations in the globalization process calls for portraying the evolution of their activity and relations with nation states and other groups of economic actors. Attention is drawn to changes in the set and forces of key globalization factors, including technological progress (in the age of information revolution), economic, social and demographic as well as political factors. The increasing impacts of evolving States' policies and socio-demographic situation on trends in the global economy are acknowledged. The transformation of globalization factors considerably affects the development and evolution (or metamorphosis) of the investigated process. Six signs of the initiated metamorphosis of globalization, which indicate possible intensification and direction of changes in the futurę development of the process, are discussed


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3A) ◽  
pp. 696-700
Author(s):  
Elena Ilyinichna Efremova ◽  
Natalia Alekseevna Prodanova ◽  
Kseniya Alexandrovna Kovaleva ◽  
Olga Vladimirovna Saradzheva ◽  
Galina Vladimirovna Glazkova ◽  
...  

At the present stage the world economy is characterized by the process of increasing the interdependence of national economies, which is due to the stagnation of commodity markets, economic crises around the world and the presence of negative financial trends. The process of increasing the interdependence of national economies is based, among other things, on national selfishness, which is manifested more and more often. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a temporary break in financial and economic ties and relations, which in turn leads to significant changes in both the Russian and global economy as a whole. At present, the question of the possible duration of the pandemic and the quarantine measures imposed because of it remains open, but it is obvious that the impact is not just an interruption of the activities of the national economy or an increase in the burden on budgets due to the increase in additional costs. We are talking about the formation of a new type of economy.


Author(s):  
Tetiana Marchenko ◽  
Vitalii Okhota

Introduction. Modern development of the world economy and especially the processes of globalization of the world economy, increasing the interdependence of economies, the formation of global commodity and financial markets have led to increased interest in the problem of increasing the competitiveness of countries involved in these processes. Issues of competitiveness at the level of the economy in the degree of urgency are among the issues of national importance, as they are closely linked to the achievement of dynamic economic development of the country and improving the living standards of its population. Methods. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study is the fundamental provisions of economics, the work of domestic and foreign economists to study the competitiveness of countries in the global economy. Materials of publications in periodicals, monographs on the researched problem are used in the article. Results. The main theoretical approaches to determining the competitiveness of countries in the global economy are considered in the article. The main functions of the state in strengthening the position of competitiveness of countries in the context of strengthening globalization are highlighted. Ukraine's positioning in the ranking of countries by the level of globalization is made and proposals are made to increase its competitiveness in the global economy. Discussion. The analysis of the positions of competitiveness of countries in the global economy provides an opportunity to deepen the theoretical and methodological foundations and development of practical recommendations for improving the competitiveness of Ukraine, which forms the prospects for further scientific research. Key words: competitiveness of countries, global economy, globalization, national economies, national interests, internationalization, economic development.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (72) ◽  
pp. 333-349
Author(s):  
Mircea COȘEA

Coronavirus has generated changes and mutations not only in the conduct of our daily lives, but also in the organization and functioning of the economic mechanism at national and global level.The rapid changes and shifts that are taking place in the economy are for the moment the result of the political mainstream, especially the governmental one, and of the system of internationalfinancial institutions. What is visible and certain is the elimination of some limits in giving up ideological principles and established rules of the functioning of the economic mechanism. Thus, the neoclassical ideology, the foundation of the whole scaffolding of the global economic policies, easily compromises by admitting that in the current conditions state interventionism has a more  important role than free market laws in counteracting the effects of the pandemic on the economy. This process easily went beyond the regulations of the liberalization of trade in goods, returning to protectionism with nationalist accents as well as to bans on food and medicine exports. The principle of European solidarity is being threatened by unilateral decisions taken by Member States, or by the abandonment of European agreements in order to replace them by national decisions. Globalization was based on the imperative to produce, sell and buy, move, circulate, move on. Its ideology of progress is based on the idea that the economy must definitely replace politics. The essence of the system was the abolishment of limits: more trade, more and more goods, more and more profits to allow money to circulate and turn into capital. This whole concept of development has ceased to be the guiding principle of economic growth and development, thecurrent trend being the return to national borders, if not in a strictly territorial sense, at least in an economic sense. That is why one of the important changes of recent months is the emergence of policies designedto change the meaning of supply chains. Rethinking supply chains is a consequence of border closures or of the sudden closure of transport. It is a critical point of pressure that weighs mainly on car manufacturers and capitalgoods. As a result, there will be a trend of relocating production to European or Maghreb countries where wages remain lower than the European average. Another quick and important change is the one related to the role of the state in the economy, neoliberalism successfully promoting throughout the global economy the idea of the need for the limited role of state decision and state interventionism in the economy. The current change consists precisely in reversing the role of the state from passivity to activity, considered as the only one capable of ensuring an efficient system for managing the pandemic and restarting the economy. For many analysts, the coronavirus crisis could lead to a profound change in the global economic model and in the individual economic behavior.This is an extremely important issue also from the perspective of Romania's future. We are at a turning point and will have to make quick and complex decisions, because Romania risks entering a post-crisis period in an economic stagnation difficult to overcome, due to the lack ofproductivity, innovation and modern management. The gaps between Romania and the vast majority of European countries will be maintained, condemning us to occupy a marginal and lower place in the hierarchy of the European economy, characterized by a high and dangerous degree of dependence on the evolution and dynamics of markets in the strong states of the European Union. The explanation of this situation lies in the type and functioning of the structure of the Romanian economy. The current structure of the Romanian economy lies on the last concentric circle of European integration, if its center is considered the western core of theEU. There is no doubt about this inevitability. The crisis caused by the pandemic already exists and despite the optimism of some international financial institutions it will profoundly affect the state of the world economy and the life of the citizens. There will be not only major changes in the paradigm of the neoliberal model of the global economy but also changes in the balance of power between the world's major economic and political actors. The trade war between the USA and China is also beginning to have important political aspects, as the fight for world leadership between these two superpowers is generating tensions over the entire world. These tensions will surely have many "collateral victims" through the direct and indirect damage that many national economies, even the European Union, will suffer, as a result of the economicand political consequences of the US and China entering a state that some Western analysts define as " a cold war but with a tendency to warm up". These elements will aggravate the pressure that the pandemic crisis will put on the state of the world economy, determining the extent and depth of the effects of the crisis not only on the economic field but also on the balance and stability of international relations.Keywords: coronavirus crisis; value chains; multilateralism-unilateralism; protectionism, neoliberal global economic model. 


2020 ◽  
pp. 251484862090238
Author(s):  
Nicholas Beuret

The only existing plans to arrest dangerous climate change depend on either yet to be invented technologies to keep us below 2°C or on crashing the world economy for decades to come. The political choice appears to be between doing what is scientifically necessary or what is politically realistic; between shifting to an entirely different kind of global socio-economic system or suffering catastrophe. We are thus in a moment of governmental impasse, caught between old and still-emerging political rationalities. Working through the liminal governmental role of environmental non-governmental organisations, this paper explores the shift from governmental regimes centred on biopower to ones that work through the register of geopower, from governing life to governing the conditions of life. Confronted with climate change as an irresolvable problem, what we find emerging are techniques that aim to contain the worst effects of climate change without fundamentally transforming the global economy.


1997 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 41-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
George E Johnson

That the relative demand for labor in the upper segment of the skill distribution has been shifting is a widely accepted ‘stylized fact’ in the literature on the increase in earnings inequality that has occurred since the late 1970s. Explanations of the causes of the relative demand shifts range from effects of increased integration of the world economy to skill-based technological change (reflecting, in part, the computerization of production processes). However, relative demand for skilled labor has been increasing fairly steadily since 1940, a fact having implications about the causes of both the demand shifts and recent increases in inequality.


Author(s):  
Yuriy Gumenyuk

The role of ensuring the economy of the country as factors of production for its competitiveness in the world markets of goods and services is substantiated. It is proved that the artificial reduction of the share in the production function of one of the factors leads to an increase in its price (share) in the national product. This gave a chance to scientifically and methodologically substantiate the position according to which emerging market countries must form an effective aggregate demand through the formation of the middle class and any slowing down in this direction leads to cur­tailment of economic development. Instead, the uneven distribution of the global economy is spreading and the death penalty is formed, which consumption costs are motivated by scientific and technological progress.


2008 ◽  
Vol 60 (4) ◽  
pp. 431-455
Author(s):  
Zaklina Petrac-Stepanovic

The US economy is facing the first big financial crisis in the 21st century. The author points out that the current crisis is much different from the previous ones by its characteristics, causes, consequences it produces on the world economy and international financial system in particular. The problems that were noticeable in the US loan market in the second half of 2007, which have escalated into a crisis of the financial system in 2008 creating instability in the world financial markets, were mostly caused by the losses on the American real estate market. For the fact that the highly integrated world economy has enabled rapidly and easily transmission the effects of real and monetary trends, reducing, on the other hand, the countries' prospects to protect their economies and populations from their effects it is evident that the way the US manages its financial system has the exceptional significance beyond USA, too. As the increasing number of countries is facing with direct or indirect effects of the current crisis it is in the interest of all those that undertaking actions to stop further negative repercussions on their national economies and ensure global economy growth. .


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