Ideological Vote and Electoral Performance of the Bolivian MAS, 2002–2014

2020 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 75-97
Author(s):  
Diego Luján
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Party System ◽  
Early Period ◽  
Location Decisions ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Signaling Device ◽  
Public Opinion Surveys ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Electoral Performance

ABSTRACTSince 2005, the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) has become a predominant party in the Bolivian party system. Despite its origin as a small, indigenous, and peasant-based party, the MAS has achieved an electoral performance unprecedented in Bolivian political history. What accounts for its electoral rise? Unlike available explanations based on sociostructural, institutional, or contextual factors, this article argues that ideological location decisions served as a signaling device that allowed the MAS to differentiate itself from its competitors. In so doing, the party managed to transcend the border of ethnic and regional cleavages, appealing to a broader electorate, which contributed decisively to its electoral success. Using data from public opinion surveys and based on statistical models, this article shows that ideology was pivotal in Bolivians’ decisions to vote for the MAS, particularly during the early period of its electoral takeoff.

scholarly journals Abrupt and Gradual Realignments: The Case of Costa Rica, 1958–2018

2020 ◽  
pp. 1866802X2096773
Author(s):  
Lucas Perelló ◽  
Patricio Navia
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Costa Rica ◽  
Party System ◽  
System Change ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Public Opinion Surveys ◽  
Election Cycles

Studies on party system change in Latin America commonly label similar processes as constituting dealignment or realignment. To clarify the boundaries between both concepts, we distinguish between abrupt and gradual realignments. While both imply change, they differ in the number of election cycles involved. Abrupt realignments occur in a single election cycle, while gradual realignments take place in two or more. We apply this conceptualisation to Costa Rica, Latin America’s longest-running democracy, and a country where the party system has decayed without collapsing. To better identify the type of change that has taken place, we use canton-level election data from 1958 to 2018 and public opinion surveys from 1978 to 2018. The evidence contests the notion of electoral dealignment. Instead, we show that the party system experienced an abrupt realignment in the 2002 election and gradual realignment in more recent election cycles.

scholarly journals How to Get Better Survey Data More Efficiently

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Mollie J. Cohen ◽  
Zach Warner
Keyword(s):  
Quality Control ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Control Processes ◽  
Public Opinion Surveys ◽  
Final Sample ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Small Set ◽  
Control Procedures ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Many

Abstract A key challenge facing many large, in-person public opinion surveys is ensuring that enumerators follow fieldwork protocols. Implementing “quality control” processes can improve data quality and help ensure the representativeness of the final sample. Yet while public opinion researchers have demonstrated the utility of quality control procedures such as audio capture and geo-tracking, there is little research assessing the relative merits of such tools. In this paper, we present new evidence on this question using data from the 2016/17 wave of the AmericasBarometer study. Results from a large classification task demonstrate that a small set of automated and human-coded variables, available across popular survey platforms, can recover the final sample of interviews that results when a full suite of quality control procedures is implemented. Taken as a whole, our results indicate that implementing and automating just a few of the many quality control procedures available can streamline survey researchers’ quality control processes while substantially improving the quality of their data.

scholarly journals Keeping power through opposition: party system change in Turkey

2020 ◽  
Vol 62 ◽  
pp. 27-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Düzgün Arslantaş ◽  
Şenol Arslantaş
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Party System ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
System Change ◽  
Spatial Distance ◽  
Party Government ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Public Opinion Surveys ◽  
Opposition Parties

AbstractThis paper re-evaluates the party system change in Turkey based on Sartori’s framework. It also explores the role of opposition parties in this. The paper suggests that, while a fragmented opposition may lead to the emergence of a one-party government and/or military intervention because of the high levels of polarization it induces, bilateral opposition prolongs one-party governments. The paper relies on an analysis of party programs and public opinion surveys in order to position the parties in terms of spatial distance and to understand the level of polarization.

Populism and Patronage

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul D. Kenny
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Instrumental Variables ◽  
Party System ◽  
Structural Features ◽  
System Stability ◽  
Hurdle Model ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Estimation Strategy ◽  
Iv Estimation ◽  
Electoral Performance

This chapter tests the theory through a quantitative analysis of populist electoral success. It conducts a statistical analysis of the performance of populist candidates in all democracies across Asia, Europe, the, and Australasia. This analysis shows that as subnational units gain autonomy, the electoral performance of populist politicians is enhanced in patronage democracies but not in non-patronage democracies. This finding suggests that there exists a pathway to populist success that is distinctive to patronage democracies. To deal with the high number of cases in which populists receive no votes, the main analysis is a “double-hurdle” model. To control for the endogeneity of these decentralizing processes to party-system stability, the chapter employs an instrumental variables (IV) estimation strategy, in which autonomy is instrumented for by a number of structural features of a polity (area, population, and territorial contiguity). The model also holds up to this IV estimation.

The Influence of Modern Party System on the Development of Parliamentarism in Russia: Institutional, Political and Psychological Aspects

2018 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. 266-273
Author(s):  
Ivan S. Palitai
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Party System ◽  
Psychological Aspects ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Processes ◽  
The People ◽  
Voting System ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Opinion Polls

The article is devoted to the modern Russian party system. In the first part of the article, the author shows the historical features of the parties formation in Russia and analyzes the reasons for the low turnout in the elections to the State Duma in 2016. According to the author the institutional reasons consist in the fact that the majority of modern political parties show less and less ability to produce new ideas, and the search for meanings is conducted on the basis of the existing, previously proposed sets of options. Parties reduce the topic of self-identification in party rhetoric, narrowing it down to “branded” ideas or focusing on the image of the leader. In addition, the author shows the decrease in the overall political activity of citizens after the 2011 elections, and points out that the legislation amendments led to the reduction of the election campaigns duration and changes in the voting system itself. The second part of the article is devoted to the study of the psychological aspects of the party system. The author presents the results of the investigation of images of the parties as well as the results of the population opinion polls, held by the centers of public opinion study. On the basis of this data, the author concludes that according to the public opinion the modern party system is ineffective, and the parties don’t have real political weight, which leads to the decrease of the interest in their activities and confidence in them. The author supposes that all this may be the consequence of the people’s fatigue from the same persons in politics, but at the same time the electorate’s desire to see new participants in political processes is formulated rather vaguely, since, according to the people, this might not bring any positive changes.

Public Opinion, Party Politics, and the Welfare State

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Lindvall ◽  
David Rueda
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Welfare State ◽  
Party System ◽  
Median Voter ◽  
Party Politics ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Party Positions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
The Welfare State

This chapter examines the long-run relationship between public opinion, party politics, and the welfare state. It argues that when large parties receive a clear signal concerning the median voter’s position on the welfare state, vote-seeking motivations dominate and the large parties in the party system converge on the position of the median voter. When the position of the median voter is more difficult to discern, however, policy-seeking motivations dominate, and party positions diverge. This argument implies that the effects of government partisanship on welfare state policy are more ambiguous than generally understood. The countries covered in the chapter are Denmark, France, Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom (going back to the 1960s). The number of observations is (necessarily) limited, but the diverse cases illustrate a common electoral dynamic centered around the position of the median voter.

The Troublesome “Paradox of Gender Quotas”: A Few Methodological Notes on the Margin of an Article by Michael Jankowski and Kamil Marcinkiewicz

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maciej A. Górecki
Keyword(s):  
Recent Article ◽  
Gender Quotas ◽  
Women Candidates ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Methodological Choices ◽  
Female Candidates ◽  
Paradoxical Effects ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Methodological Aspects ◽  
Electoral Performance

Abstract In a recent article published in Politics & Gender, Michael Jankowski and Kamil Marcinkiewicz (2019) study the effects of gender quotas on the electoral performance of female candidates in open-list proportional representation (OLPR) systems. On the empirical side, their study is a critical reanalysis of the Polish case, in particular the regularities demonstrated in a 2014 study that I coauthored. We argued there that at the micro level (candidate level), the effects of quotas were somewhat “paradoxical”: following the installation of quotas, women candidates tend to perform worse relative to their male counterparts than they did during the pre-quota period. Jankowski and Marcinkiewicz claim to demonstrate that those “paradoxical” effects are minor and thus practically negligible. In this note, I argue that their conclusion is largely a result of the particular methodological choices made by these authors. These choices seem unobvious, debatable, and potentially controversial. The note concludes that we need more reflection and debate on the methodological aspects of analyzing candidates’ electoral success in complex electoral systems, such as multidistrict OLPR. This would greatly facilitate future efforts aimed at an unequivocal examination of the contentious concepts such as the notion of “paradox of gender quotas.”

By Popular Demand: The Effect of Public Opinion on Income Inequality

2005 ◽  
Vol 4 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 261-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Andersen ◽  
Anthony Heath ◽  
David Weakliem
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Instrumental Variables ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Reciprocal Causation ◽  
Low Incomes ◽  
The World ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Distribution Of Income

AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between public support for wage differentials and actual income inequality using data from the World Values Surveys. The distribution of income is more equal in nations where public opinion is more egalitarian. There is some evidence that the opinions of people with higher incomes are more influential than those of people with low incomes. Although the estimated relationship is stronger in democracies, it is present even under non-democratic governments, and the hypothesis that effects are equal cannot be rejected. We consider the possibility of reciprocal causation by means of an instrumental variables analysis, which yields no evidence that income distribution affects opinion.

scholarly journals Who’s Hot and Who’s Not? Factors Influencing Public Perceptions of Current Party Popularity and Electoral Expectations

2015 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 458-477 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Zerback ◽  
Carsten Reinemann ◽  
Angela Nienierza
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Public Perceptions ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Current Opinion ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Media Slant ◽  
Electoral Expectations ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
Public Opinion Perception

This study analyzes how perceptions of the popularity of political parties (i.e., the current opinion climate) and expectations about parties’ future electoral performance (i.e., the future opinion climate) are formed. Theoretically, the paper integrates research on the sources of public opinion perception and empirically draws on a representative survey carried out before the 2013 German federal election. We show that the perceived media slant and opinions perceived in one’s personal surroundings are closely related to perceptions of party popularity, whereas individual recall of poll results and personal opinions about the parties are not. However, poll results are shown to be the single most important predictor of expectations about the parties’ future electoral success.

Has Anyone Seen It?

2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 189-212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dagmar Radin ◽  
Aleksandar Džakula
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Sentiment ◽  
Public Opinion Surveys ◽  
Health Care Performance ◽  
Policy Arena ◽  
Care Performance

Over the past decade, public opinion surveys have shown that Croats are deeply dissatisfied with their health care system and asses it to be one of the most important issues. However, health care hardly makes it into any political discourse in Croatia. This study analyzes the results of a public opinion survey conducted before the 2007 parliamentary elections to find out what the public sentiment on health care performance in Croatia is and to analyze the reasons why health care is not addressed by political actors. Evidence suggests that while health care is the most salient issue today, the public often understands it poorly. Thus, in a political environment of competing issues, and given the complexity of tacking health care in the policy arena, politicians strategically avoid discussing the issue.

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