scholarly journals Who’s Hot and Who’s Not? Factors Influencing Public Perceptions of Current Party Popularity and Electoral Expectations

2015 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 458-477 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Zerback ◽  
Carsten Reinemann ◽  
Angela Nienierza
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Public Perceptions ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Current Opinion ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Media Slant ◽  
Electoral Expectations ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
Public Opinion Perception

This study analyzes how perceptions of the popularity of political parties (i.e., the current opinion climate) and expectations about parties’ future electoral performance (i.e., the future opinion climate) are formed. Theoretically, the paper integrates research on the sources of public opinion perception and empirically draws on a representative survey carried out before the 2013 German federal election. We show that the perceived media slant and opinions perceived in one’s personal surroundings are closely related to perceptions of party popularity, whereas individual recall of poll results and personal opinions about the parties are not. However, poll results are shown to be the single most important predictor of expectations about the parties’ future electoral success.

scholarly journals A Matter of Supply and Demand: The Electoral Performance of Populist Parties in Three European Countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stijn van Kessel
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Comparative Studies ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Electoral Performance

This article assesses the electoral performance of populist parties in three European countries: the Netherlands, Poland and the United Kingdom. In explaining the electoral performance of the populist parties in the three countries, the article considers the agency of political parties in particular. More specifically, it examines the responsiveness of established parties and the credibility of the populist parties. Whereas the agency of populist parties, or other radical outsiders, has often been overlooked in previous comparative studies, this article argues that the credibility of the populist parties themselves plays a crucial role in understanding their electoral success and failure.

African Phoenix? Explaining the Electoral Performance of the Formerly Dominant Parties in Africa

2006 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 317-340 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Ishiyama ◽  
John James Quinn
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Democratic Transition ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Political Liberalization ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Dominant Parties ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Environmental Shocks ◽  
Electoral Performance

In this article we address the question: what explains the varying degrees of success of the formerly dominant political parties in African oneparty states following ‘democratic’ transition? Indeed, political liberalization and democratization pose strong environmental shocks to formerly dominant parties and radically change the environment in which these parties exist. Such parties are faced with great pressures to adapt to their new environment. Why are some more successful than others? To address this question, we examine the evidence from 22 sub-Saharan African countries over 53 legislative elections from 1990 to 2003. We find that the legacies of different previous regimes, party incumbency and (to some extent) the degree of ethnolinguistic fractionalization, impact on the relative electoral success of the formerly dominant parties.

The Troublesome “Paradox of Gender Quotas”: A Few Methodological Notes on the Margin of an Article by Michael Jankowski and Kamil Marcinkiewicz

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maciej A. Górecki
Keyword(s):  
Recent Article ◽  
Gender Quotas ◽  
Women Candidates ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Methodological Choices ◽  
Female Candidates ◽  
Paradoxical Effects ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Methodological Aspects ◽  
Electoral Performance

Abstract In a recent article published in Politics & Gender, Michael Jankowski and Kamil Marcinkiewicz (2019) study the effects of gender quotas on the electoral performance of female candidates in open-list proportional representation (OLPR) systems. On the empirical side, their study is a critical reanalysis of the Polish case, in particular the regularities demonstrated in a 2014 study that I coauthored. We argued there that at the micro level (candidate level), the effects of quotas were somewhat “paradoxical”: following the installation of quotas, women candidates tend to perform worse relative to their male counterparts than they did during the pre-quota period. Jankowski and Marcinkiewicz claim to demonstrate that those “paradoxical” effects are minor and thus practically negligible. In this note, I argue that their conclusion is largely a result of the particular methodological choices made by these authors. These choices seem unobvious, debatable, and potentially controversial. The note concludes that we need more reflection and debate on the methodological aspects of analyzing candidates’ electoral success in complex electoral systems, such as multidistrict OLPR. This would greatly facilitate future efforts aimed at an unequivocal examination of the contentious concepts such as the notion of “paradox of gender quotas.”

scholarly journals Prawo i Sprawiedliwość w polskim systemie partyjnym (przyczynek do dyskusji o systemotwórczej roli partii)

2018 ◽  
pp. 79-94
Author(s):  
Andrzej ANTSZEWSKI
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Party System ◽  
Political Competition ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Moral Foundations ◽  
Governance System ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
The Status ◽  
Law And Justice ◽  
The Government

Among the numerous functions of political parties, the role of creating the governance system is highly significant. It manifests itself in the ability of political parties to establish permanent relations with the other parties and in this way provides the essence of a party system. The purpose of the present paper is to demonstrate the role the Law and Justice party (PiS) plays in the creation of the governance system. Since 2005, PiS has been one of the two dominant political parties struggling to win the parliamentary and presidential elections. In order to determine the scope of this party’s influence on the shape of the party system, their achievements in elections, parliament and Cabinet activity need to be analyzed. Such a quantitative analysis allows us to grasp PiS’s development trends in political competition. The paper discusses the reasons for their electoral success in 2005 as well as their defeat in 2007 and the aftermath of both these elections for the party’s competition to the government. The achievements of PiS confirm that this party has won the status of a party that structures the political competition, a status that has not been lost irrespective of the five elections at different levels that the party has lost. PiS has successfully adopted the postulates of the Left in terms of the economy and social issues, whereas it has maintained the image of a right-wing party in terms of the shape of the state and its moral foundations. PiS has managed to form an electorate that differs from other parties’ electorates in terms of its social and demographic properties as well as its political attitudes, which reinforces the position of PiS in the electoral struggle. Yet PiS has failed to establish a permanent coalition government. The elimination of Self-Defence (Samoobrona) and the League of Polish Families (LPR) from the Sejm has practically deprived PiS of any coalition potential, or has at least significantly reduced this potential. This, coupled with a continuously growing negative electorate, may turn out to constitute the main obstacle to PiS regaining power.

Many losers – One winner? An examination of vote switching to the AfD in the 2017 German federal election using VAA data

2020 ◽  
pp. 135406882091495 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Constantin Wurthmann ◽  
Stefan Marschall ◽  
Vasiliki Triga ◽  
Vasilis Manavopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Single Issue ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Use Of Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
Strongly Connected

The German federal election of 2017 saw significant losses for the two German mainstream parties (Volksparteien) and governing coalition partners, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democrats (SPD). The major beneficiary was the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a right-populist party, which almost tripled its amount of votes received from the 2013 federal election. Making use of data from a Voting Advice Application, this article seeks to explore the AfD’s extraordinary electoral success with particular attention to the party’s capacity to attract voters from the two mainstream and traditionally powerful parties. Drawing on the literature on radical right-wing parties in Europe and tracking the route of AfD from a single-issue Eurosceptic party to a radical party with broader programmatic appeal, this work tests hypotheses regarding demographic, political and attitudinal determinants of voting for AfD, in general, and switching one’s vote to AfD from CDU/CSU or SPD more specifically. In line with previous literature, individual-level analyses show that voting for the AfD seems to be more tangentially related to demographic variables, such as sex, age and education and more strongly connected to political concerns, e.g. “conservative” self-placement and attitudes toward specific policies, immigration and Euroscepticism in particular.

Social Origin Is No Destiny: Background, Institutionalization, and Electoral Performance of New Political Parties in Slovakia

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 637-662 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marek Rybář ◽  
Peter Spáč
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Social Origin ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
European Democracy ◽  
The Social ◽  
Political Entrepreneur ◽  
Party Institutionalization ◽  
Political Entrepreneurs ◽  
Electoral Performance

The existing research suggests that socially rooted new political parties are more likely to be reelected to parliaments than parties emerging without links to preexisting social groups. It is argued that the two groups face different prospects of institutionalization: Rooted parties are more viable because their links to preexisting societal groups contribute to a higher sustainability of their electoral support and stronger institutionalization. We assess the link between the origin of parties, their level of institutionalization, and their electoral performance in the context of Slovakia, a new Eastern European democracy. We add to the existing state of knowledge in three ways. First, we empirically assess the link between the social origin of parties and their level of institutionalization. We also provide rich empirical material on the intraparty processes resulting in various levels of institutionalization. Subsequently, we assess whether rooted parties record better electoral performance than political entrepreneur parties. Second, we provide some illustration of the fact that agential factors, especially the decisions and activities related to leadership contestation, directly impact both party institutionalization and electoral performance. Third, we show that developing the links to a sociostructurally well-defined electorate may be a viable strategy to secure a parliamentary relevance for a prolonged period of time for some political entrepreneurs. Our findings suggest that parties with different levels of institutionalization are able to secure reelection, and that their electoral performance is not directly linked to their social origins.

Ideology, Identity, and the 2014 National Elections

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pradeep K. Chhibber ◽  
Rahul Verma
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Political Activity ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Regional Parties ◽  
The Status ◽  
Party Members

The 2014 national elections were an ideological showdown between the main political parties with distinctly different visions offered to Indian voters. The BJP advocated a de-emphasis on statism and recognition whereas the Congress and many regional parties favored the status quo. Voter surveys of the 2014 election provide clear evidence of this ideological divide both among party members and voters of particular parties. The divide was furthered by Narendra Modi, the chief campaigner for the BJP, whose personal appeal was important to the electoral success of the BJP. Consistent with theoretical expectations ideologically motivated voters were more likely to participate in political activity around election time. They are also able to distinguish between the ideological vision offered by the various parties and coalitions.

scholarly journals Electoral performance beyond leaders? The organization of populist parties in postcommunist Europe

2019 ◽  
pp. 135406881986362
Author(s):  
Sergiu Gherghina ◽  
Sorina Soare
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
The Political ◽  
Party Organization ◽  
Political Arena ◽  
Republic Of Moldova ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Party Organizations ◽  
Organizational Determinants ◽  
Electoral Performance

In spite of extensive research dedicated to the rise and development of fringe populist political parties in Eastern Europe, little attention has been paid to the organizational determinants of their electoral performance. This article aims to fill this void in the literature and analyzes the extent to which particular types of leadership and party organization could influence the electoral performance of three political parties from Bulgaria, Republic of Moldova, and Romania. The qualitative analysis is conducted for the period 2012–2015 and uses a combination of primary (party statutes) and secondary sources (party histories, electoral databases, and literature). The results indicate how the existence of underdeveloped party organizations has a negative influence on the electoral performance, while strong and charismatic leaders are an insufficient condition for ensuring survival on the political arena.

Who are President Trump’s Allies in the House of Representatives?

The Forum ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Clarke ◽  
Jeffery A. Jenkins
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Preliminary Analysis ◽  
Winning Coalition ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Comparable Group ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Study Committee ◽  
The Us ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
To Receive

AbstractWe conduct a preliminary analysis of the first 200 days of the Donald Trump presidency, to determine who his principal allies in the US House have been. We build our analysis around three groups of Republicans, based on caucus affiliations: members of the Republican Main Street Partnership (RMSP), the Republican Study Committee (RSC), and the House Freedom Caucus (HFC). We find that House Republicans, regardless off caucus membership, broadly support President Trump and largely shared in the his electoral success. Yet, we also uncover suggestive evidence that the HFC is maneuvering into a position of influence with President Trump. Freedom Caucus members are more closely tied to his electoral performance than members of other conservative groups, and they appear to receive more time with the President relative to a comparable group of House Republicans. While these results are interesting, they are also initial and more time is needed to assess how President Trump builds a winning coalition with Republican House members.

A Game-Theoretical Approach to the Results of Parliamentary Elections in Belgium between the Wars

1989 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 237-254
Author(s):  
Erik Buyst ◽  
Luc Lauwers ◽  
Patrick Uvtterhoeven
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Interwar Period ◽  
Theoretical Approach ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Game Theoretical Approach ◽  
Distribution Of Power

This paper deals with the distribution of power among Belgian political parties during the interwar period. In the 1930s Belgium, like most European countries, was confronted with the electoral success of extreme right- and left-wing parties that wanted to change the existing political system into an authoritarian one. Usually, historians draw attention to the rapidly growing share of seats in Parliament held by extreme parties as a sign of their increasing influence on Belgian politics. Among game theorists, however, it is widely accepted that the proportion of seats is a poor proxy for power relations (Schotter, 1979). It is indeed possible that a political party acquiring a higher proportion of seats in Parliament loses its capacity to influence the outcome of a vote, and vice versa.

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