Does Heavy Turnout Help Democrats in Presidential Elections?

1986 ◽  
Vol 80 (4) ◽  
pp. 1291-1304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harvey J. Tucker ◽  
Arnold Vedlitz ◽  
James DeNardo
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Majority Party ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Conventional View ◽  
Dominant Party ◽  
Original Case

There is conventional political wisdom that high voter turnout in a U.S. presidential election advantages the majority party. Because the Democratic party has been the dominant party in recent decades, this turnout advantage is often believed to accrue to Democratic presidential candidates. In an article in the June 1980 issue of the Review, James DeNardo challenged this conventional view. Indeed, he claimed that the majority party was likely to suffer with increased turnout when the behavior of core and peripheral voters is taken into account. Harvey J. Tucker and Arnold Vedlitz take issue with DeNardo's reasoning and evidence, and DeNardo embellishes and underscores his original case.

scholarly journals The Need for an Established Senate Rule on Election-Year and Lame Duck Session Supreme Court Nominations

2021 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Jacob Weaver
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
American History ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Look Back ◽  
History Of ◽  
Lame Duck ◽  
Explicit Rule

In 2016, the Republican-held Senate refused to hold a hearing on President Barack Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, sparking outrage among the Democratic Party. Then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell justified his party’s actions based on what became known as the “McConnell Rule.” This controversial rule holds that during years of presidential elections, when the president and the Senate majority are of different parties, the Senate is not expected to confirm the president’s Supreme Court nominees; but, when the president and Senate majority are of the same party, vacancies may be filled. When the Senate applied this rule in 2020, the stakes were even higher. Revered liberal stalwart Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away only 46 days before the 2020 presidential election. Invoking the McConnell Rule, the Republican-held Senate moved forward with the confirmation of President Trump’s nominee Amy Coney Barrett. This contentious move again infuriated Democrats, and the presidential campaign. Now that Justice Barrett has been appointed and the presidential election has passed, it is useful to look back on the history of Supreme Court nominations during presidential election years. Such a review suggests that the so-called McConnell Rule is rooted in valid historical precedent. In fact, viewed in light of American history, even a Trump lame duck nomination and confirmation would have been valid. This blog post argues that the Senate should distill this historical precedent into an explicit Rule of the Senate that will govern the chamber going forward. The rule should obligate the Senate to either (1) hold a vote to confirm the election-year or lame duck nominee, or (2) hold a vote to postpone action on the nomination. If a vote to postpone action on the nomination fails, the rule should then compel the Senate to hold a vote to confirm the nominee. Such a rule removes all doubt about the Senate’s authority to act or refuse to act on election-year and lame duck nominees, exposes unfounded threats of retaliation by minority parties, and best conforms to the Constitution.

Presidential Institutions and Electoral Participation in Concurrent Elections in Latin America

2017 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 541-559 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Carreras
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Concurrent Elections

Previous studies of voter turnout in Latin America have found weak and inconsistent evidence for the link between political institutions and electoral participation. In this article, I use data from an expanded dataset of voter turnout in Latin America (1980–2016) to show that institutions do have an impact on citizens’ decisions on whether or not to participate in concurrent elections. Whereas previous studies analyzed the effect of legislative institutions on voter turnout, this article estimates a series of models that demonstrate the impact of presidential institutions and the political context surrounding presidential elections on electoral participation. The findings suggest that when first-order (presidential) and second-order (legislative) elections take place concurrently, electoral participation is influenced primarily by presidential institutions (term length, presidential powers, and electoral rules) and the electoral context in which the presidential elections take place (effective number of presidential candidates).

OTHER, UPPITY OBAMA

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 439-456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryann Erigha ◽  
Camille Z. Charles
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
American Identity ◽  
Presidential Candidates

AbstractUntil 2008, only White candidates represented either of the two major parties as presidential nominees. Hence, little is known about how race appeals are framed by or against non-White presidential candidates. Barack Obama's election as the Democratic Party nominee allows us to investigate this issue. In this article, we conduct a content analysis of over 160 advertisements from the 2008 U.S. presidential election to examine how race appeals were framed (or countered) by each campaign. We find that the Republican campaign employed implicit racial appeals that played upon stereotypes of non-Whites as “un-American” and “other” and Blacks as “dangerous,” “criminal,” “incompetent,” and “uppity.” In contrast, the Democratic campaign de-emphasized race, portrayed “other” as positive, reinforced American identity, and spoke out against negative advertisements.

scholarly journals American Youth and the Presidential Election -2020

2021 ◽  
pp. 0
Author(s):  
Aleksandra A. Golovko-Okhremenko
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Electoral Process ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Electoral Campaign ◽  
Age Cohort

The peak for the last 100 years voter turnout became one of the peculiarities of the 2020 presidential election. It revealed itself among every voter age cohort, among them traditionally absentee youth. Its electoral process participation growth can be linked with both its generational features and electoral campaign tactics of Democratic and Republican presidential candidates. A number of factors that helped democrats include personal antipathy of many young Americans towards D.Trump, mail voting expansion and sympathy of youth to J.Biden’s program social safety items.

scholarly journals Rekonstruksi Teori Komunikasi Politik Dalam Membangun Persepsi Publik

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahrotunnimah Zahrotunnimah ◽  
Nur Rohim Yunus ◽  
Ida Susilowati
Keyword(s):  
Political Communication ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Public Perception ◽  
Communication Theory ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Negative Perceptions

Abstract:Presidential elections are part of the democratic party event. However, the presidential elections in 2014 and 2019 were unique elections and took a lot of public attention. In addition to only being followed by two candidates, they also formed two big camps of supporters who shared high fanatics with each candidate. In this study, the extent to which political communication theory was built by the two candidates was examined, so as to convince potential voters. In various ways carried out to attract public sympathy for the feasibility of each candidate to become the leader of the country. Some people provide positive perceptions by giving appreciation, but others provide negative perceptions and consider their acts of political communication to be limited to mere imaging. Therefore, this study wants to answer these problems.Keywords: Political Communication, Public Perception, Presidential Election Abstrak:Pemilihan umum presiden merupakan bagian dari ajang pesta demokrasi. Akan tetapi pemilihan umum presiden di tahun 2014 dan 2019 merupakan ajang pemilu yang unik dan menyita banyak perhatian publik. Selain hanya diikuti oleh dua kandidat, juga membentuk dua kubu besar pendukung yang sama-sama memiliki fanatik yang tinggi kepada masing-masing kandidat. Dalam penelitian ini, dikaji sejauhmana teori komunikasi politik dibangun oleh kedua kandidat, sehingga dapat meyakinkan calon pemilihnya. Dengan berbagai cara dilakukan guna menarik simpati publik akan kelayakan masing-masing kandidat untuk menjadi pemimpin negeri. Sebagian masyarakat memberikan persepsi positif dengan memberikan apresiasi, akan tetapi sebagian lain memberikan persepsi negatif dan menganggap tindakan komunikasi politiknya hanya sebatas pencitraan belaka. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini ingin menjawab permasalahan tersebut.Kata Kunci: Komunikasi Politik, Persepsi public, Pemilu Presiden

scholarly journals Charismatic and Affective Rhetoric in a Presidential Campaign

2014 ◽  
pp. 120-137
Author(s):  
Sheilesha R. Willis ◽  
Gloria L. Sweida ◽  
Stephanie Glassburn ◽  
Cynthia L. Sherman ◽  
Michelle C. Bligh
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
2008 Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Emotional Language ◽  
Democratic Parties

Although prior research demonstrates that charisma and rhetoric are two determinants of voting behavior, few studies have examined the effects of charismatic rhetoric and affect as they pertain to the outcomes of presidential elections. Using DICTION software for content analysis, 432 pre-convention speeches from the 2008 presidential election were analyzed to explore the effects that charismatic rhetoric and affect have on presidential candidates’ success. Results indicate that there were more similarities than differences in the charismatic and affect-laden rhetoric of successful and unsuccessful presidential candidates in both the Republican and Democratic parties. Overall, the results demonstrate that both successful and unsuccessful presidential candidates used charismatic rhetoric and emotional language to motivate their followers in the 2008 presidential election.

The Mixed Effects of Candidate Visits on Campaign Donations in the 2020 Presidential Election

2021 ◽  
pp. 1532673X2110415
Author(s):  
Boris Heersink ◽  
Nicholas G. Napolio ◽  
Jordan Carr Peterson
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Mixed Effects ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Recent Scholarship ◽  
Weak Evidence

Recent scholarship on the effect of candidate visits in presidential elections has found that appearances by candidates appear to mobilize both supporters and opponents. Specifically, in the 2016 presidential election, donations to campaigns of the visiting presidential candidates increased, but—in the case of Republican nominee Donald Trump—so did donations to his opponent, Hillary Clinton. In this paper, we extend this research by assessing the effect of visits on campaign donations by presidential and vice presidential candidates in the 2020 election. We find evidence that visits by Donald Trump and Kamala Harris had strong mobilizing and counter-mobilizing effects, increasing donations to both campaigns. We find weak evidence that visits by Joe Biden increased contributions to his campaign, but we do not find evidence that his visits had a counter-mobilizing effect, and we find no evidence that visits by Mike Pence affected donations in either direction.

Internet Campaigning in an Unfamiliar Context: A Study of the Internet Campaigns of the Two Major Political Parties in the 2015 Nigerian Presidential Election

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Bibobra Aganaba
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Theoretical Perspective ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Empirical Perspective ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Elite Interviews ◽  
Organisational Dynamics

This thesis addresses the following research question: How can we best understand the effects of internet campaigning on the campaign practices of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2015 Nigerian Presidential election? This research represents an important contribution to the broader study of internet campaigning; widening the theoretical and empirical scope of the literature. From a theoretical perspective, three major approaches are deployed across the thesis: modernisation, Americanisation, and hybridisation. While all three lenses play an important part in understanding the effect of the internet on Nigerian campaign practices, the hybridisation perspective is particularly important – pointing towards a broader need in the literature to integrate this theoretical emphasis. From an empirical perspective, over 50 original, elite interviews in Nigeria were conducted with members of both parties’ campaign teams and campaign consultants. In analysing these data, the thesis unpacks three sub-questions: How was internet campaigning adopted and adapted by the campaign teams? What factors help to explain variations in the internet campaigns practices of the presidential candidates of the PDP and APC? How did the internet affect the intra-campaign organisational dynamics of the presidential candidates of the PDP and APC? The analysis across these questions concludes that the importance of the 2015 Nigerian online campaign should not be underestimated – it clearly impacted on campaign practices and organisation. However, the nature of this impact falls far short of a full realisation of the potential impact that the web could have exerted. Understanding this reality requires that close attention be paid to the national and party contexts within which internet campaigning was adopted – meaning that a hybridisation perspective is central to explaining how the internet impacts campaign practices in states such as Nigeria.

The Mobile Presidential Election

2015 ◽  
pp. 992-1002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramona McNeal ◽  
Lisa Dotterweich Bryan
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
The Internet ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Get Out The Vote

The Internet has been incorporated into political campaigns for a number of purposes including making direct appeals to citizens through the Internet to vote, volunteer their time or donate money. An important question is can the Internet be utilized to increase voter turnout? The Internet has been found to hold the most promise in increasing turnout when it is used to facilitate get-out-the-vote (GOTV) drives. The purpose of this article is to determine what the impact of including smartphones into a GOTV effort may have on voter turnout. To explore this question, voter turnout strategies were examined for the 2008 and 2012 U.S. presidential elections. The findings suggest that when smartphones are used as part of a mobilizing effort, they can help increase voter turnout. Nevertheless the findings also suggest that whether these GOTV drives increase turnout is dependent on which voters are targeted by mobilizing activities.

Critical Elections and Political Realignments in the USA: 1860–2000

2003 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norman Schofield ◽  
Gary Miller ◽  
Andrew Martin
Keyword(s):  
Civil Rights ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Dynamic Equilibrium ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Economic Rights ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Dominant Party ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Political Realignment

The sequence of US presidential elections from 1964 to 1972 is generally regarded as heralding a fundamental political realignment, during which time civil rights became as important a cleavage as economic rights. In certain respects, this realignment mirrored the transformation of politics that occurred in the period before the Civil War. Formal models of voting (based on assumptions of rational voters, and plurality-maximizing candidates) have typically been unable to provide an account of such realignments. In this paper, we propose that US politics necessarily involves two dimensions of policy. Whatever positions US presidential candidates adopt, there will always be two groups of disaffected voters. Such voters may be mobilized by third party candidates, and may eventually be absorbed into one or other of the two dominant party coalitions. The policy compromise, or change, required of the successful presidential candidate then triggers the political realignment. A formal activist-voter model is presented, as a first step in understanding such a dynamic equilibrium between parties and voters.

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