Estimating the Electoral Effects of Voter Turnout

2010 ◽  
Vol 104 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
THOMAS G. HANSFORD ◽  
BRAD T. GOMEZ
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
The United States ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Electoral Choice ◽  
High Turnout ◽  
Specific Factors

This article examines the electoral consequences of variation in voter turnout in the United States. Existing scholarship focuses on the claim that high turnout benefits Democrats, but evidence supporting this conjecture is variable and controversial. Previous work, however, does not account for endogeneity between turnout and electoral choice, and thus, causal claims are questionable. Using election day rainfall as an instrumental variable for voter turnout, we are able to estimate the effect of variation in turnout due to across-the-board changes in the utility of voting. We re-examine the Partisan Effects and Two-Effects Hypotheses, provide an empirical test of an Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis, and propose a Volatility Hypothesis, which posits that high turnout produces less predictable electoral outcomes. Using county-level data from the 1948–2000 presidential elections, we find support for each hypothesis. Failing to address the endogeneity problem would lead researchers to incorrectly reject all but the Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis. The effect of variation in turnout on electoral outcomes appears quite meaningful. Although election-specific factors other than turnout have the greatest influence on who wins an election, variation in turnout significantly affects vote shares at the county, national, and Electoral College levels.

scholarly journals Habit Formation in Voting: Evidence from Rainy Elections

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 160-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Fujiwara ◽  
Kyle Meng ◽  
Tom Vogl
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Habit Formation ◽  
County Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Social Spillovers ◽  
Consumption Value

We estimate habit formation in voting—the effect of past on current turnout—by exploiting transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on US presidential elections from 1952–2012, we find that rainfall on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current turnout by 0.6–1.0 points. Further analyses suggest that habit formation operates by reinforcing the direct consumption value of voting and that our estimates may be amplified by social spillovers. (JEL D72, D83, N42)

scholarly journals Political Economy Analysis of Voter Participation and Choices in National Elections in Ghana’s Fourth Republican Era

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Kwabena Asomanin Anaman ◽  
Gbensuglo Alidu Bukari
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Large Degree ◽  
District Level ◽  
Voter Participation ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Literacy Rate ◽  
National Population ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Republican Era

We analysed the determinants of voter participation (turnout), impairment of voter participation (spoiled or rejected ballots), and the outcomes (share of the total valid votes cast garnered by the victorious political party) in national presidential elections during the Fourth Republican era in Ghana. This analysis was undertaken based on meso-level statistical models, using district-level data of voters compiled from constituency-level data maintained by the Electoral Commission of Ghana, and district-level socio-economic characteristics derived from the 2010 and 2000 National Population Censuses conducted by the Ghana Statistical Service. In essence, we used data from two presidential elections in Ghana in 2000 and 2012 which could be directly aligned to data from the 2000 and 2010 national population censuses for district-level analysis using the concept of an average “district” voter. Our analysis indicated that the voter turnout was determined by a number of factors, the most important one being the population aged 15 over; the turnout decreases with increasing population. The impairment of voter participation, based on the proportion of the total votes cast attributed to spoiled ballots, was linked to the literacy rate with the spoiled ballots proportion declining with increasing literacy rate. The share of the total valid votes cast, obtained by the victorious party in a district, was influenced to a large degree by the proportion of the total number of citizens in a district belonging to the two biggest social/ethnic groups in Ghana, Asantes and Ewes, who predominantly voted in a countervailing manner for the parties that their political class elites dominate, the New Patriotic Party and National Democratic Congress, respectively.

The Electoral Allure of Direct Democracy: The Effect of Initiative Salience on Voting, 1990-96

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 168-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Lacey
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The Other ◽  
Ballot Initiatives ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Election Studies

Do salient ballot initiatives stimulate voting? Recent studies have shown that initiatives increase voter turnout, but some methodological concerns still linger. These studies have either relied solely on aggregate data to make inferences about individual-level behavior or used a flawed measure of initiative salience. Using individual-level data from the National Election Studies, I find that ballot question salience indeed stimulated voting in the midterm elections of 1990 and 1994. In an election with moderately salient ballot questions, a person's likelihood of voting can increase by as much as 30 percent in a midterm election. On the other hand, consistent with most prior research, I find no statistically significant relationship between ballot question salience and voting in presidential elections.

The Impact of State Television on Voter Turnout

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 257-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rune J. Sørensen
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
The United States ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
New Tv ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Impact

In an influential study, Matthew Gentzkow found that the introduction of TV in the United States caused a major drop in voter turnout. In contrast, the current analysis shows that public broadcasting TV can increase political participation. Detailed data on the rollout of television in Norway in the 1960s and 1970s are combined with municipality-level data on voter turnout over a period of four decades. The date of access to TV signals was mostly a side effect of geography, a feature that is used to identify causal effects. Additional analyses exploit individual-level panel data from three successive election studies. The new TV medium instantly became a major source of political information. It triggered political interest and caused a modest, but statistically significant, increase in voter turnout.

scholarly journals Ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants of voter participation in Ghana’s 2012 election: Implications for the 2020 national elections

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 145-177
Author(s):  
Seidu Mahama Alidu ◽  
Gbensuglo Alidu Bukari
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Census Data ◽  
District Level ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Voter Participation ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Unique Approach ◽  
Election Results

In this paper we analyze the ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants influencing voter participation in Ghana based on aggregate district-level data. The paper focuses on the determinants that influenced citizens’ political participation in the 2012 Presidential elections of the Fourth Republic of Ghana and their implications for the December 2020 national elections. The unique approach of this paper is that district-level aggregate data on economic characteristics compiled by the Ghana Statistical Service are synchronised with district-level national presidential election results compiled by the Electoral Commission of Ghana to ascertain the determinants of participation. The analysis is based on the concept of the “Average District Voter” which is analyzed using district-level census data combined with national election results. Statistical analysis was used to complementarily assess the determinants of voter participation in the Ghanaian 2012 presidential elections. The results of the analysis thus established two major points; that ethnic identification with regard to the two major ethnic groups in Ghana (i.e., the Asantes and the Ewes) has clearly influenced voter turnout, and second, that worsening socio-economic conditions played a role in voter turnout in the 2012 presidential elections and these issues will ultimately determine the winner of the 2020 national elections.

Randomization Inference with Rainfall Data: Using Historical Weather Patterns for Variance Estimation

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 277-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alicia Dailey Cooperman
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Variance Estimation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Average Treatment Effect ◽  
Standard Errors ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Political Outcomes ◽  
Randomization Inference ◽  
Highly Correlated

Many recent papers in political science and economics use rainfall as a strategy to facilitate causal inference. Rainfall shocks are as-if randomly assigned, but the assignment of rainfall by county is highly correlated across space. Since clustered assignment does not occur within well-defined boundaries, it is challenging to estimate the variance of the effect of rainfall on political outcomes. I propose using randomization inference with historical weather patterns from 73 years as potential randomizations. I replicate the influential work on rainfall and voter turnout in presidential elections in the United States by Gomez, Hansford, and Krause (2007) and compare the estimated average treatment effect (ATE) to a sampling distribution of estimates under the sharp null hypothesis of no effect. The alternate randomizations are random draws from national rainfall patterns on election and would-be election days, which preserve the clustering in treatment assignment and eliminate the need to simulate weather patterns or make assumptions about unit boundaries for clustering. I find that the effect of rainfall on turnout is subject to greater sampling variability than previously estimated using conventional standard errors.

Beliefs, Feelings and Votes: The British Case

1977 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 301-320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Harrop
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
The United States ◽  
Previous Generation ◽  
Electoral Choice ◽  
Electoral Behaviour ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
British Case

The image of voting in the United States developed by political scientists over the last decade differs markedly from the perspective offered in that classic study of electoral behaviour in the 1950s, The American Voter. Whereas the authors of The American Voter painted a rather unflattering portrait of the way in which the voter of the 1950s made his electoral choice, contemporary research has begun to discover some unexpected virtues in the American electorate of the 1960s and early 1970s. Compared to his counterpart in the previous generation, today's voter seems to attach less significance to his party identification, and more importance to his perceptions of the parties' stands on issues with which he is concerned, in deciding which party to support in presidential elections. Indeed, it would perhaps be only a slight exaggeration to suggest that the notion of electoral choice has now become a realistic, and not merely a metaphorical, manner of speaking about the American voter.

scholarly journals The participatory and partisan impacts of mandatory vote-by-mail

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (35) ◽  
pp. eabc7685
Author(s):  
Michael Barber ◽  
John B. Holbein
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
County Level ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Past ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Vote By Mail

Recently, mandatory vote-by-mail has received a great deal of attention as a means of administering elections in the United States. However, policy-makers disagree on the merits of this approach. Many of these debates hinge on whether mandatory vote-by-mail advantages one political party over the other. Using a unique pairing of historical county-level data that covers the past three decades and more than 40 million voting records from the two states that have conducted a staggered rollout of mandatory vote-by-mail (Washington and Utah), we use several methods for causal inference to show that mandatory vote-by-mail slightly increases voter turnout but has no effect on election outcomes at various levels of government. Our results find meaning given contemporary debates about the merits of mandatory vote-by-mail. Mandatory vote-by-mail ensures that citizens are given a safe means of casting their ballot while simultaneously not advantaging one political party over the other.

scholarly journals Do Congressional Candidates Have Reverse Coattails? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design

2009 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 418-434 ◽  
Author(s):  
David E. Broockman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
The United States ◽  
District Level ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Congressional District ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Null Finding

Although the presidential coattail effect has been an object of frequent study, the question of whether popular congressional candidates boost vote shares in return for their parties' presidential candidates remains unexplored. This article investigates whether so-called “reverse coattails” exist using a regression discontinuity design with congressional district-level data from presidential elections between 1952 and 2004. Taking incumbency to be near-randomly distributed in cases where congressional candidates have just won or lost their previous elections, I find that the numerous substantial advantages of congressional incumbency have no effect on presidential returns for these incumbents' parties. This null finding underscores my claim that the existing coattail literature deserves greater scrutiny. My results also prompt a rethinking of the nature of the advantages that incumbents bring to their campaigns and may help deepen our understanding of partisanship in the United States.

Partisan Effects of Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections

2000 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 408-429 ◽  
Author(s):  
JACK H. NAGEL ◽  
JOHN E. McNULTY
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The South ◽  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Empirically Supported ◽  
High Turnout ◽  
The Impact

Previous studies of turnout effects in U.S. elections have reported perplexingly different results for presidential as opposed to major statewide (senatorial and gubernatorial) contests. By justifying and applying a consistent methodology, the authors find that results for both types conform to the pattern previously reported by Nagel and McNulty for senatorial and gubernatorial races. Outside the South, higher turnout helped Democratic presidential candidates from 1928 through 1964. In 1968 through 1996, however, the impact of turnout in straight two-party contests was insignificant, except in the South, where Democrats benefited from higher turnout. In the earlier period, high turnout helped Democrats most in states where Republicans usually prevailed. Its effects became weaker or even pro-Republican in the most strongly Democratic states. All of these findings uphold DeNardo's mathematical model, which provides an empirically supported theory of the partisan effects of turnout in U.S. presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections.

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