scholarly journals Ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants of voter participation in Ghana’s 2012 election: Implications for the 2020 national elections

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 145-177
Author(s):  
Seidu Mahama Alidu ◽  
Gbensuglo Alidu Bukari
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Census Data ◽  
District Level ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Voter Participation ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Unique Approach ◽  
Election Results

In this paper we analyze the ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants influencing voter participation in Ghana based on aggregate district-level data. The paper focuses on the determinants that influenced citizens’ political participation in the 2012 Presidential elections of the Fourth Republic of Ghana and their implications for the December 2020 national elections. The unique approach of this paper is that district-level aggregate data on economic characteristics compiled by the Ghana Statistical Service are synchronised with district-level national presidential election results compiled by the Electoral Commission of Ghana to ascertain the determinants of participation. The analysis is based on the concept of the “Average District Voter” which is analyzed using district-level census data combined with national election results. Statistical analysis was used to complementarily assess the determinants of voter participation in the Ghanaian 2012 presidential elections. The results of the analysis thus established two major points; that ethnic identification with regard to the two major ethnic groups in Ghana (i.e., the Asantes and the Ewes) has clearly influenced voter turnout, and second, that worsening socio-economic conditions played a role in voter turnout in the 2012 presidential elections and these issues will ultimately determine the winner of the 2020 national elections.

scholarly journals Political Economy Analysis of Voter Participation and Choices in National Elections in Ghana’s Fourth Republican Era

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Kwabena Asomanin Anaman ◽  
Gbensuglo Alidu Bukari
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Large Degree ◽  
District Level ◽  
Voter Participation ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Literacy Rate ◽  
National Population ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Republican Era

We analysed the determinants of voter participation (turnout), impairment of voter participation (spoiled or rejected ballots), and the outcomes (share of the total valid votes cast garnered by the victorious political party) in national presidential elections during the Fourth Republican era in Ghana. This analysis was undertaken based on meso-level statistical models, using district-level data of voters compiled from constituency-level data maintained by the Electoral Commission of Ghana, and district-level socio-economic characteristics derived from the 2010 and 2000 National Population Censuses conducted by the Ghana Statistical Service. In essence, we used data from two presidential elections in Ghana in 2000 and 2012 which could be directly aligned to data from the 2000 and 2010 national population censuses for district-level analysis using the concept of an average “district” voter. Our analysis indicated that the voter turnout was determined by a number of factors, the most important one being the population aged 15 over; the turnout decreases with increasing population. The impairment of voter participation, based on the proportion of the total votes cast attributed to spoiled ballots, was linked to the literacy rate with the spoiled ballots proportion declining with increasing literacy rate. The share of the total valid votes cast, obtained by the victorious party in a district, was influenced to a large degree by the proportion of the total number of citizens in a district belonging to the two biggest social/ethnic groups in Ghana, Asantes and Ewes, who predominantly voted in a countervailing manner for the parties that their political class elites dominate, the New Patriotic Party and National Democratic Congress, respectively.

Estimating the Electoral Effects of Voter Turnout

2010 ◽  
Vol 104 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
THOMAS G. HANSFORD ◽  
BRAD T. GOMEZ
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
The United States ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Electoral Choice ◽  
High Turnout ◽  
Specific Factors

This article examines the electoral consequences of variation in voter turnout in the United States. Existing scholarship focuses on the claim that high turnout benefits Democrats, but evidence supporting this conjecture is variable and controversial. Previous work, however, does not account for endogeneity between turnout and electoral choice, and thus, causal claims are questionable. Using election day rainfall as an instrumental variable for voter turnout, we are able to estimate the effect of variation in turnout due to across-the-board changes in the utility of voting. We re-examine the Partisan Effects and Two-Effects Hypotheses, provide an empirical test of an Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis, and propose a Volatility Hypothesis, which posits that high turnout produces less predictable electoral outcomes. Using county-level data from the 1948–2000 presidential elections, we find support for each hypothesis. Failing to address the endogeneity problem would lead researchers to incorrectly reject all but the Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis. The effect of variation in turnout on electoral outcomes appears quite meaningful. Although election-specific factors other than turnout have the greatest influence on who wins an election, variation in turnout significantly affects vote shares at the county, national, and Electoral College levels.

scholarly journals Habit Formation in Voting: Evidence from Rainy Elections

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 160-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Fujiwara ◽  
Kyle Meng ◽  
Tom Vogl
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Habit Formation ◽  
County Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Social Spillovers ◽  
Consumption Value

We estimate habit formation in voting—the effect of past on current turnout—by exploiting transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on US presidential elections from 1952–2012, we find that rainfall on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current turnout by 0.6–1.0 points. Further analyses suggest that habit formation operates by reinforcing the direct consumption value of voting and that our estimates may be amplified by social spillovers. (JEL D72, D83, N42)

Spatial analysis of child labour in India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lokender Prashad ◽  
Mili Dutta ◽  
Bishnu Mohan Dash
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Child Labour ◽  
District Level ◽  
School Level ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Level Data

Purpose This study on spatial analysis of child labour in India is a macro level analysis on child labour using the census data, 2011 of Government of India. The population census which is conducted once in 10 years only provides district level data on work-force distribution. The study has spatial analysis of child labour in the age group of 5–14 years in India. To assess the magnitude of the children in the labour force, district level data of Census 2011 has been used in the study. The study has made an attempt to identify the districts where there is high level of children in the labour force. This paper aims to estimate the magnitude and trends of children’s workforce participation using the census data as it is the only data base, which is available at the district level since 1961 onwards. The study has made an attempt to identify the clustering of child labour across districts in India and how child labour is clustered by different background characteristics. Design/methodology/approach The study has used ArcGIS software package, GeoDa software and local indicator of spatial association test. Findings The findings of study reveal that the proportion of rural, total fertility rate (TFR) and poverty headcount ratio is positively associated, whereas female literacy and the pupil-teacher ratio are negatively associated with child labour. It suggests that in the hot-spot areas and areas where there is a high prevalence of child labour, there is need to increase the teacher's number at the school level to improve the teacher-pupil ratio and also suggested to promote the female education, promote family planning practices to reduce TFR in those areas for reducing the incidences of child labour. Research limitations/implications The study also recommends that the incidences of child labour can be controlled by a comprehensive holistic action plan with the active participation of social workers. Practical implications The promulgation of effective legislation, active involvement of judiciary and police, political will, effective poverty alleviation and income generation programmes, sensitisation of parents, corporates and media can play effective role in mitigating the incidences of child labour in India. To achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs) adopted by world leaders in 2015 to eradicate child labour in all its forms by 2025. Social implications The study aims to achieve the SDGs adopted by world leaders in 2015 to eradicate child labour in all its forms by 2025. Originality/value The study is purely original and there are no such studies in Indian context by using the latest software.

Social Media and Voter Participation

2012 ◽  
pp. 1596-1610
Author(s):  
Mariah Kraner
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
New Media ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Voter Participation ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Historical Significance ◽  
Election Process ◽  
Future Evaluation ◽  
Perceived Access

This chapter looks at the political trends associated with using social media sources as a way to enhance participation in national elections. It is hypothesized that participation has declined across groups and through time, regardless of the new uses of social media in political campaigning. The historical significance of voter participation is examined using Alexis De Tocqueville’s and Robert Putnam’s frameworks. The path is paved to examine both the importance of new media in the election process and its drawbacks. A national empirical test is presented that examines the correlation between race categories, genders, and age ranges, with the percentage of voter turnout in each presidential election year from 1964 to 2008. Regression analysis is also conducted to examine the predictive nature of increased time on national voter participation. The correlation and regression results are presented, indicating that, in general, participation has continued to decline among most groups, regardless of the perceived access and connection provided by social media outlets. However, a slight change after 1996 may indicate an effect from social media presence. The data presents a starting point for future evaluation of e-government effects on national voter participation in the election process, providing a benchmark for later empirical tests.

The Electoral Allure of Direct Democracy: The Effect of Initiative Salience on Voting, 1990-96

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 168-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Lacey
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The Other ◽  
Ballot Initiatives ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Election Studies

Do salient ballot initiatives stimulate voting? Recent studies have shown that initiatives increase voter turnout, but some methodological concerns still linger. These studies have either relied solely on aggregate data to make inferences about individual-level behavior or used a flawed measure of initiative salience. Using individual-level data from the National Election Studies, I find that ballot question salience indeed stimulated voting in the midterm elections of 1990 and 1994. In an election with moderately salient ballot questions, a person's likelihood of voting can increase by as much as 30 percent in a midterm election. On the other hand, consistent with most prior research, I find no statistically significant relationship between ballot question salience and voting in presidential elections.

Voter Turnout in Presidential Democracies

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (10) ◽  
pp. 1317-1338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan J. Dettrey ◽  
Leslie A. Schwindt-Bayer
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Political Context ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Voter Participation ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Presidential Democracies ◽  
Runoff Elections

Numerous studies indicate that political institutions play an important role in explaining variation in voter turnout across countries. The nuances of institutions unique to presidential elections have been largely overlooked, however, despite the different incentives they offer for voters to participate in elections. This article examines the effect that four presidential institutions had on voter turnout in presidential elections between 1974 and 2004—the timing of elections (whether concurrent or nonconcurrent), the power of the presidency, presidential electoral rules (plurality or majority runoff), and reelection rules. To isolate the effect of presidential institutions, this study controls for other likely influences on turnout, including the economic environment and the wider political context. It finds that (a) runoff elections dampen turnout whereas incumbency spurs it and (b) more powerful presidencies and elections, when held concurrently with legislative elections, have little effect on voter participation.

scholarly journals Do Congressional Candidates Have Reverse Coattails? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design

2009 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 418-434 ◽  
Author(s):  
David E. Broockman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
The United States ◽  
District Level ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Congressional District ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Null Finding

Although the presidential coattail effect has been an object of frequent study, the question of whether popular congressional candidates boost vote shares in return for their parties' presidential candidates remains unexplored. This article investigates whether so-called “reverse coattails” exist using a regression discontinuity design with congressional district-level data from presidential elections between 1952 and 2004. Taking incumbency to be near-randomly distributed in cases where congressional candidates have just won or lost their previous elections, I find that the numerous substantial advantages of congressional incumbency have no effect on presidential returns for these incumbents' parties. This null finding underscores my claim that the existing coattail literature deserves greater scrutiny. My results also prompt a rethinking of the nature of the advantages that incumbents bring to their campaigns and may help deepen our understanding of partisanship in the United States.

scholarly journals The Generational and Institutional Sources of the Global Decline in Voter Turnout

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filip Kostelka ◽  
André Blais
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Set Covering ◽  
Generational Change ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Group Mobilization ◽  
Election Studies

ABSTRACT Why has voter turnout declined in democracies all over the world? This article draws on findings from microlevel studies and theorizes two explanations: generational change and a rise in the number of elective institutions. The empirical section tests these hypotheses along with other explanations proposed in the literature—shifts in party/candidate competition, voting-age reform, weakening group mobilization, income inequality, and economic globalization. The authors conduct two analyses. The first analysis employs an original data set covering all post-1945 democratic national elections. The second studies individual-level data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and British, Canadian, and US national election studies. The results strongly support the generational change and elective institutions hypotheses, which account for most of the decline in voter turnout. These findings have important implications for a better understanding of the current transformations of representative democracy and the challenges it faces.

Voting in Transition: Participation and Alienation in Egypt’s 2012 Presidential Election

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-58
Author(s):  
Caroline Abadeer ◽  
Alexandra Domike Blackman ◽  
Scott Williamson
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Transition To Democracy ◽  
District Level ◽  
Electoral Process ◽  
Urban Districts ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Political Divide ◽  
2012 Election ◽  
Political Groups

How does voter turnout change as countries transition to democracy? Using district-level data from Egypt’s 2012 presidential election, we show that turnout was higher in more educated and urban districts—a stark reversal from voting patterns under the authoritarian Mubarak regime, when less educated and poorer areas were more likely to participate. However, this pattern weakened in the second round of the 2012 election, when the choice was restricted to two candidates who reflected Egypt’s primary pre-revolution political divide. Urban and educated districts experienced a decline in turnout and a rise in protest voting during the second round relative to the first, suggesting that key political groups were alienated from the electoral process. These results indicate that who participates in elections can shift quickly as institutions change, but this is conditional on the choice of candidates available to voters.

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