scholarly journals How Parties React to Voter Transitions

2020 ◽  
Vol 114 (3) ◽  
pp. 940-945
Author(s):  
TARIK ABOU-CHADI ◽  
LUKAS F. STOETZER

This letter investigates how voter transitions between parties affect parties’ policy positioning. While a growing literature investigates the role of election results as signals for parties’ policy adaption, it has mostly focused on vote changes of individual parties. However, parties do not know only whether they have won or lost in an election; they also have detailed information on which parties they won votes from and which parties they lost votes to. We make two arguments about how voter transitions should affect the strategic policy choices of political parties. First, when a party has lost votes to another party it will adapt its policy positions toward that party. Second, parties that have overall lost more votes become more likely to adapt their positions. Making use of a data set on individual voter transitions and party positions we can demonstrate that voter transitions indeed affect parties’ competitive behavior.

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (5) ◽  
pp. 754-776 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Cahill ◽  
Andrey Tomashevskiy

An important dimension of party positioning remains largely unexamined—that is, the clarity with which parties present policies to the electorate. Moreover, the effects of private campaign contributions on party positions are also vastly understudied. We address these gaps using a unique new data set on private contributions to political parties in eight Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from the early 1990s to the present. We argue that parties are incentivized to present increasingly ambiguous, or broad appeal, policy positions as a result of increased private campaign contributions. Broad appeal campaigns allow parties to appease their donors with more extreme policy preferences while maintaining the support of their more moderate base supporters. We find support for this argument and show that increasing donations are associated with increased policy ambiguity. Using new data, this article is the first to examine an important connection between political finance and party positioning on a cross-national and time-series basis.


Author(s):  
Russell J. Dalton

This chapter uses the cleavage positions of Candidates to the European Parliament (CEPs) to as representative of their parties’ political positions. Three surveys of CEPs track the evolution of party supply in European party systems. In 1979 parties were primarily aligned along a Left–Right economic cleavage. Gradually new left and Green parties began to compete in elections and crystallized and represented liberal cultural policies. In recent decades new far-right parties arose to represent culturally conservative positions. The cross-cutting cultural cleavage has also prompted many of the established parties to alter their policy positions. In most multiparty systems, political parties now compete in a fully populated two-dimensional space. This increases the supply of policy choices for the voters. The analyses are based on the Candidates to the European Parliament Studies in 1979, 1994, and 2009.


2020 ◽  
pp. 003232172090632
Author(s):  
Stuart Wilks-Heeg ◽  
Peter Andersen

This article examines the role of results forecasts and exit polls in BBC general election night broadcasts from 1955 to 2017. Despite the substantial role played by academics in results programmes, in devising forecasts and analysing results as they emerge, academic literature on election night broadcasts is scant. This article charts the development of election night forecasting over time and its implications for the structure and content of election night broadcasts. It draws on a unique new data set of verbatim transcripts of the first hour of every BBC election night broadcast from 1955–2017 to quantify the attention paid to forecasts and exit polls and assess how they frame discussion of the likely outcome and its potential political consequences. The article concludes that the function of election night broadcasts as ‘the first draft of psephology’ merits closer attention for both the political narratives and the academic research agendas they generate.


2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Chiara Fiorelli

Contemporary democracies face a trend toward the diffusion of the representational void left by under- legitimized political parties (Mair 2013). The essential functions of traditional political parties to organize and articulate political conflict and societal interests have been challenged both from the inside of the party system, by the emergence of populist habits of newcomers, and from the outside, by the progressive erosion of old political culture and corresponding increasing of hostility feeling. Intermediaries organizations of political and economic interests usually push their demands toward political actors in order to shape policy choices. What can happen when the traditional party system suffers from de- legitimation? In this paper, I will try to understand the level of concern of interest organizations toward the progressive detachment of civil society from political actors, in order to define if the risk of a void of representation is perceived as real and contingent. Thanks to a new original European dataset (the Comparative Interest Groups Survey), the analysis shows that different types of interest groups perceive the void to be real and with a possible impact on their activities and their own survival. As expected, in the regression model, differences emerge between countries with a traditional strong interests’ system and countries where groups activities are usually barely regulated. The results support the idea that the distance between civil society and political representatives should be considered a prominent focus of contemporary social and political investigation in order to understand the challenge for democratic life and the possible strategy of reaction.


2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 86-116
Author(s):  
Gail Campbell

Abstract A case study of a single county helps to explain the rise of political parties in midnineteenth-century New Brunswick. While Charlotte County was not a microcosm of New Brunswick as a whole, fully 10 per cent of the province's population lived there at midcentury. More important, the voting patterns that emerged in Charlotte County did typify the province-wide election results. Three distinct components are necessary to the evolution of a political party: the “organization proper,” composed of party officials and active members; the “party in office,” composed of elected members (caucuses, floor leaders, and whips); and the “party-in-the-electorate,” composed of the individual voters who attached themselves unofficially to the party by regularly supporting it at the polls. The first two components have received a good deal of attention from political historians. The role of the voter, however, has been virtually ignored. This paper seeks to fill that gap in the literature by examining the voting patterns of individual electors during the crucial decade (1846-57) that saw the rise of New Brunswick's first party system. The survival of a run of poll books made possible analysis of patterns of individual participation and response over a series of five elections during the period. The electoral patterns which emerged in Charlotte County during the decade between 1846 and 1857 clearly illustrate the evolution of a party-within-the- electorate. At the beginning of the period, voter response was mainly candidate-oriented. By the end of the period, however, the majority of electors were voting for “slates” of candidates, or parties. The issue which precipitated the transition from a pattern of candidate-based voting to one of party-based voting was temperance. Yet the transition was gradual, extending over a period of three elections, and party-based voting emerged as an outgrowth and extension of candidate-based voting. Throughout the period, voters tended to favour candidates with whom they shared a common identity of interests-people who were, in fact, very like themselves. As politicians formed factions, and then parties, they too formed alliances with others like themselves. Thus, while voters continued to favour candidates with whom they shared a common identity of interests, by 1857 those candidates were running as members of slates representing parties. Voters chose the slate of candidates, or party, whose outlook seemed most in tune with their own. For voters, then, the emergence of party-in-the-electorate represented a conscious shift in orientation, but it required no significant ideological reorientation. For historians, the emergence of party-in-the-electorate, however gradual or imperceptible, is significant, for until parties develop solid support bases among groups of voters, their evolution is incomplete.


2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-64
Author(s):  
José Pedro Lopes

This article offers an overview of the Portuguese general election of October 2019 and of its impact in the ongoing evolution of the Portuguese party system. The election results are interpreted by looking at the socio-economic and political context in which it took place, as well as the protagonists, issues and party positions of the electoral campaign. Additionally, the process leading to the formation of the socialist minority government is also examined. It is argued that changing patterns have mostly been reverted and that the party system that comes out of this election is a more stable one. This was mainly due to institutional constraints that limit the potential of change. Nevertheless, the increasing role of the left-right cleavage, alongside the entrance of new parties in parliament might pave the way for future realignments of the Portuguese party system.


Author(s):  
Russell J. Dalton

Political parties define the supply of policy choices for voters. This chapter uses the three Candidates to the European Parliament (CEP) studies to determine the political views of elites and thereby the policy positions of their respective parties. As for European citizens, CEPs’ issue opinions are structured by a two-dimensional space defined by the economic and cultural cleavages. The analyses also show that many of the demographic forces, such as social class or religious background, which reshaped public opinion, also influence the views of party elites on both cleavage dimensions. The chapter maps the distribution of national party elites on both cleavages. The analyses are based on CEP studies in 1979, 1994, and 2009.


2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 488-500 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Gschwend ◽  
Thomas Zittel

The assignment of seats to specialized standing committees is a most consequential choice in legislative contexts. Distributive theories of legislative organization suggest that electoral incentives to cultivate personal votes result in the self-selection of legislators to committees best suited to please their constituents and, thus, to secure reelection. However, these theories discard the partisan basis of European parliaments and therefore fail to adequately assess the politics of committee assignments in these particular contexts. This article aims to explore the significance of distributive theories for the German case in differentiated ways and on the basis of a new and rich data set including statistical data for five legislative terms (1983, 1987, 1998, 2005, and 2009). It argues that in partisan assemblies, political parties might develop an interest in distributive politics themselves and might assign distinct types of legislators to distinct committees to seek personal votes contingent upon distinct electoral incentives. Particularly, we argue that Germany’s mixed proportional system provides incentives to parties to assign legislators with profound local roots to district committees best suited to please geographic constituents.


2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 977-996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Fernandez-Vazquez ◽  
Zeynep Somer-Topcu

According to spatial models of elections, citizen perceptions of party policy positions are a key determinant of voting choices. Yet recent scholarship from Europe suggests that voters do not adjust their perceptions according to what parties advocate in their campaigns. This article argues that voters develop a more accurate understanding of parties’ ideological positions following a leadership change because a new leader increases the credibility of party policy offerings. Focusing on Western European parties in the 1979–2012 period, it shows that having a new leader is a necessary condition for voters to more accurately perceive the left–right placements of opposition parties. Voters do not use party platforms to form perceptions of incumbent parties’ positions, regardless of whether the leader is new or veteran. These results have important implications for models of party competition and democratic representation.


2021 ◽  
Vol 97 (2) ◽  
pp. 305-322
Author(s):  
Stephanie C Hofmann ◽  
Benjamin Martill

Abstract Research on political parties and foreign policy has grown in recent years in response to disciplinary and real-world changes. But party research still bears the imprint of earlier scepticism about the role of parties. The result is scholarship which is disaggregated, which avoids difficult cases for parties, and which has focused more on showing that parties matter relative to structural accounts of foreign policy-making. This article takes stock of recent research on political parties, party politics and their role in foreign policy-making. We argue that it is time for party research not only to embrace the question of whether parties matter but also how, when and where they matter. This requires a move away from most-likely cases and the realist foil towards an embrace of the complexity of party positions. Building on International Relations, comparative politics and foreign policy analysis scholarship, we suggest four avenues deserving of greater scholarly focus: 1) ideological multidimensionality; 2) parties as organizations and the role of entrepreneurs; 3) parties as transnational foreign policy actors; and 4) the interaction between parties and the changing global order. We propose how these literatures can help identify new research questions, contribute to theory development and help define scope conditions. This will hopefully help scholars establish benchmarks for judging the efficacy of parties in foreign policy-making.


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