scholarly journals The Only (Other) Poll That Matters? Exit Polls and Election Night Forecasts in BBC General Election Results Broadcasts, 1955–2017

2020 ◽  
pp. 003232172090632
Author(s):  
Stuart Wilks-Heeg ◽  
Peter Andersen
Keyword(s):  
Academic Research ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Academic Literature ◽  
Political Narratives ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Over Time

This article examines the role of results forecasts and exit polls in BBC general election night broadcasts from 1955 to 2017. Despite the substantial role played by academics in results programmes, in devising forecasts and analysing results as they emerge, academic literature on election night broadcasts is scant. This article charts the development of election night forecasting over time and its implications for the structure and content of election night broadcasts. It draws on a unique new data set of verbatim transcripts of the first hour of every BBC election night broadcast from 1955–2017 to quantify the attention paid to forecasts and exit polls and assess how they frame discussion of the likely outcome and its potential political consequences. The article concludes that the function of election night broadcasts as ‘the first draft of psephology’ merits closer attention for both the political narratives and the academic research agendas they generate.

Umstrittene Expertise

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Political Theory ◽  
Global Dimension ◽  
The Political ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Political Debates ◽  
Controversial Nature

The current political debates about climate change or the coronavirus pandemic reveal the fundamental controversial nature of expertise in politics and society. The contributions in this volume analyse various facets, actors and dynamics of the current conflicts about knowledge and expertise. In addition to examining the contradictions of expertise in politics, the book discusses the political consequences of its controversial nature, the forms and extent of policy advice, expert conflicts in civil society and culture, and the global dimension of expertise. This special issue also contains a forum including reflections on the role of expertise during the coronavirus pandemic. The volume includes perspectives from sociology, political theory, political science and law.

Eviction and Voter Turnout: The Political Consequences of Housing Instability

2021 ◽  
pp. 003232922110507
Author(s):  
Gillian Slee ◽  
Matthew Desmond
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Endogeneity Bias ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Housing Costs ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, housing costs have outpaced incomes in the United States, resulting in millions of eviction filings each year. Yet no study has examined the link between eviction and voting. Drawing on a novel data set that combines tens of millions of eviction and voting records, this article finds that residential eviction rates negatively impacted voter turnout during the 2016 presidential election. Results from a generalized additive model show eviction’s effect on voter turnout to be strongest in neighborhoods with relatively low rates of displacement. To address endogeneity bias and estimate the causal effect of eviction on voting, the analysis treats commercial evictions as an instrument for residential evictions, finding that increases in neighborhood eviction rates led to substantial declines in voter turnout. This study demonstrates that the impact of eviction reverberates far beyond housing loss, affecting democratic participation.

DOMINO EFFECT: BORIS YELTSIN'S DECREE ON THE DE-PARTIZATION IN THE CHAIN OF THE COLLAPSE OF THE USSR

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 69-80
Author(s):  
D.G. SELTSER ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Literature ◽  
Political Process ◽  
The Political ◽  
Direct Connection ◽  
Domino Effect ◽  
Nomenclature System ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
History Of

The purpose of the article is to clarify the place and role of the decree in the general course of the political process and highlight its direct consequences for the fate of the CPSU and the USSR. The scientific literature on the topic is analyzed. It is concluded that scientists draw a direct connection between the final events of the history of the USSR – Yeltsin's decree about departisation, degradation of the CPSU, resistance to the Emergency Committee and the liquidation of the CPSU / USSR. The author describes the stages of the personnel actions of Gorbachev and Yeltsin. In his opinion, the nomenclature system was expected: «construction» of the elite (1985–1987), elections in the party (1988–1990), elections in the state (1989–1990), decree about departisation (1991). The decree is seen as the final stage in the denationalization of the party. The CPSU, having lost power and property, ceased to be a state. The content of the decree, the behavior of political actors in connection with its adoption and the political consequences of the decree are considered. In conclusion, it is concluded that the decree was a domino effect, a provocation to the instant collapse of the USSR.

Introduction

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Charles Devellennes
Keyword(s):  
News Media ◽  
State Violence ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
The Social ◽  
Fundamental Challenge ◽  
New Type ◽  
The Right ◽  
Over Time

This chapter gives introduces the gilet jaunes. The gilets jaunes, a group of French protesters named after their iconic yellow vests donned during demonstrations, have formed a new type of social movement. The gilets jaunes have been variously interpreted since they began their occupation of French roundabouts. They were at first received with enthusiasm on the right of the French political establishment, and with caution on the left. The fourth weekend saw scenes of violence erupt on the Champs Élysées, notably around and within the Arc de Triomphe, which towers over the first roundabout built in France. The headlines of newspapers and stories of the news media became almost exclusively focused on the violence of the protests. Images of state violence became ever-present on Twitter and independent media outlets, making it clear that it was the use of disproportionate force by police units that was at the centre of the events. The chapter explains that the aim of the book is to show that the use of violence is not the only tale to be told about the role of the protesters in the contemporary French context. Their contribution to the political landscape of France is quite different. They have provided a fundamental challenge to the social contract in France, the implicit pact between the governed and their political leaders. The movement has seen the numbers of participants diminish over time, but the underlying tension between the haves and the have-nots, the winners of globalization and those at risk of déclassement [social downgrading], are enduring and persistent.

6. The European Parliament:

2021 ◽  
pp. 128-148
Author(s):  
Ariadna Ripoll Servent ◽  
Olivier Costa
Keyword(s):  
European Parliament ◽  
Theoretical Explanation ◽  
The Political ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Theoretical Approaches ◽  
Democratic Quality ◽  
Future Challenges ◽  
Over Time

The European Parliament (EP) symbolizes many of the struggles that characterize the process of European integration and is at the core of many theoretical and empirical debates about representation, accountability, and legitimacy. This chapter draws on a variety of theoretical approaches to explain the complex role the EP plays in the political system of the European Union (EU). It starts with a brief overview of the history and functions of the assembly, followed by a theoretical explanation of its empowerment over time. Then, it determines the extent to which the EP is capable of influencing policymaking, both in legislative and non-legislative domains, as well as for the appointment of the Commission. It presents the political structure of the assembly and underlines the role of parliamentary groups and committees. It discusses the representativeness of the EP and the democratic quality of its internal functioning. Finally, it addresses current and future challenges for the EP.

scholarly journals The role of networks for migration flows: an update

2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (7) ◽  
pp. 1154-1171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Beine
Keyword(s):  
Specific Role ◽  
Gravity Models ◽  
Immigration Policies ◽  
Recent Experience ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Driving Mechanisms ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
Over Time

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to cover the literature on the role migrants networks in explaining aggregate migration flows between countries. The author emphasizes the specific role of family immigration policies. To that purpose, the author covers briefly the recent experience of seven receiving countries to highlight the importance of these policies in explaining part of the observed network elasticities. Design/methodology/approach The author first provides a small review of the literature and the issues at stake. The author then provides an update of the estimates of the network elasticities using the data set on migration stocks and flows from Ozden et al. (2011). Using micro-founded gravity models, the author estimates the network elasticities and discusses the key driving mechanisms explaining their size as well the variation in the amplitude across categories of destination and over time. The author accounts for the issue of multilateral resistance to migration. Findings The author obtains estimates that are in line with the ones documented previously in the literature. The author finds that the role of networks in attracting migrants has increased after the 1970s. The author emphasizes the specific role of family immigration policies. To that purpose, the author covers briefly the recent experience of a set of receiving countries to highlight the importance of these policies in explaining part of the observed network elasticities. Originality/value This paper covers the literature on the role migrants networks in explaining aggregate migration flows between countries and obtain new estimates of network elasticities that vary over time and across types of destination countries.

Vai Sambar! American Meaning Making in Afro-Brazilian Dance

2008 ◽  
Vol 40 (S1) ◽  
pp. 49-58
Author(s):  
Jessica Damon
Keyword(s):  
Personal Experience ◽  
Cultural Context ◽  
Meaning Making ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Research Community ◽  
The Political ◽  
White Community ◽  
Afro Brazilian

This paper describes the interaction between an American community of dancers and the wave of Afro-Brazilian influence that entered that community. Through personal experience, academic research, community observation, and conversations, the author examines the role of samba and the religious dances of the orixds within a suburban white community, highlighting how meaning is changed and constructed based on cultural context. The author emphasizes how women in this community responded to the political, social, and sexual implications of a non-native dance form, and how their resulting self-identification as a community was transformed. The essay questions how Americans can locate themselves within the greater cultural context of samba and other Afro-Brazilian dance forms, not simply as cultural outsiders but as women deeply connected to the unique American reality of these practices.

“Policy Feedbacks” and Political Change: Contrasting Reagan and Thatcher's Pension-Reform Initiatives

1992 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 359-390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Pierson
Keyword(s):  
Policy Development ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
The Political ◽  
Reform Initiatives ◽  
Modern Life ◽  
Role Of Government ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Development Policies ◽  
As Effects

For those interested in understanding the role of government in modern life, important public policies have long been objects of close scrutiny. Traditionally, however, policies were treated only as outcomes that needed to be explained. More recently, there has been growing interest in the political consequences of policy development. Policies are no longer seen simply as effects, with attention focused on why these policies emerged. Policies have important repercussions as well: once adopted, they restructure the political and social environment that produced them.

scholarly journals The Paris Agreement on Climate Change: Behind Closed Doors

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radoslav S. Dimitrov
Keyword(s):  
Academic Research ◽  
Cognitive Change ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
The Political ◽  
Process Variables ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Persuasive Arguments ◽  
Political Success

The Paris Agreement constitutes a political success in climate negotiations and traditional state diplomacy, and offers important implications for academic research. Based on participatory research, the article examines the political dynamics in Paris and highlights features of the process that help us understand the outcome. It describes battles on key contentious issues behind closed doors, provides a summary and evaluation of the new agreement, identifies political winners and losers, and offers theoretical explanations of the outcome. The analysis emphasizes process variables and underscores the role of persuasion, argumentation, and organizational strategy. Climate diplomacy succeeded because the international conversation during negotiations induced cognitive change. Persuasive arguments about the economic benefits of climate action altered preferences in favor of policy commitments at both national and international levels.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Informasi Sistem Penghitungan Nasional Online pada Hasil Pemilu 2019 terhadap Kepercayaan Publik Kota Medan

PERSPEKTIF ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 399-415
Author(s):  
Febrin Dwi Gloria Tampubolon ◽  
Muryanto Amin ◽  
Hendra Harahap
Keyword(s):  
Public Trust ◽  
General Election ◽  
Public Knowledge ◽  
Counting System ◽  
The Public ◽  
The People ◽  
Increasing Knowledge ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Election Commission

The election organizer is obliged to implement every principle in the election. The online National Counting System (Situng) is one of a series of election organizer activities in fulfilling the principle of openness to the public. Improving the quality of service in the General Election aims to increase public trust in the implementation of elections. According to Nunkoo, the principles of transparency and knowledge must be possessed by activity organizers in an effort to increase public trust. Research with this quantitative method looks at how much influence the online national counting system (situng) information (study of the 2019 Election results) has with a study on the people of Medan City. The findings in this study indicate that the process of transparency and increasing knowledge of the people of Medan City has significantly shaped Public Trust in the 2019 Election. The act of transparency has a bigger effect than increasing knowledge of online counting. Given the large role of transparency in shaping public trust in Medan City, this activity needs to be further enhanced to provide a better understanding to the public. And it does not rule out that online situng can increase public knowledge in the electoral field. Situng online is also expected to be an extension of the General Election Commission (KPU) in increasing public knowledge as a basis for experience in the election.

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