Coalition Predictions with Ordinal Policy Position Data

1994 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Van Roozendaal
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Coalition Formation ◽  
Policy Position ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Position Data ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Ordinal Level ◽  
Over Time

The policy-oriented coalition models that were developed in the 1960s and 1970s generally required that the positions of political parties were measured at ordinal level. More recent models of coalition formation, however, have tended to assume that interval-level data on parties' policy positions are available. This need for interval-level data has raised serious practical problems for empirical research. Analysts frequently wish to examine patterns of coalition formation after several, or many, elections. Unfortunately, detailed interval-level data on parties' positions are generally available at only one or two points in time. While it can often be plausibly argued that parties will occupy fairly stable ordinal positions over time, it is extremely doubtful whether this is also the case for their interval positions.

scholarly journals Generation Crisis: How Population Research Defined the Baby Boomers

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 321-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Bouk
Keyword(s):  
Social History ◽  
Baby Boom ◽  
Generational Conflict ◽  
Baby Boom Generation ◽  
History Of ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Mature Population ◽  
The Welfare State

This article presents an intellectual and social history of the concept of the baby boom. Researchers first invented the notion of a population bulge in the mid-twentieth-century United States to explain birth rates that were higher than predicted by their theories of a mature population and economy. As the children born during this “baby boom” entered schools in the 1950s, they were drawn into a pre-existing conversation about an educational emergency that confirmed researchers’ suspicions that the bulge would spread crisis over time throughout all of the nation's age-graded institutions. New sociological and demographic explanations of the bulge subsequently merged with heightened talk of generational conflict during the 1960s and 1970s to define, with journalistic help in 1980, the “baby boom generation” and the “baby boomer.” Crisis talk has pursued the boomers into the present, mobilized most effectively by opponents of the welfare state.

The Impact of State Television on Voter Turnout

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 257-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rune J. Sørensen
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
The United States ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
New Tv ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
The Impact

In an influential study, Matthew Gentzkow found that the introduction of TV in the United States caused a major drop in voter turnout. In contrast, the current analysis shows that public broadcasting TV can increase political participation. Detailed data on the rollout of television in Norway in the 1960s and 1970s are combined with municipality-level data on voter turnout over a period of four decades. The date of access to TV signals was mostly a side effect of geography, a feature that is used to identify causal effects. Additional analyses exploit individual-level panel data from three successive election studies. The new TV medium instantly became a major source of political information. It triggered political interest and caused a modest, but statistically significant, increase in voter turnout.

Measuring Foreign Policy Positions of Members of the US Congress

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 181-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gyung-Ho Jeong
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Item Response Theory ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Item Response ◽  
Theory Model ◽  
Domestic Policy ◽  
Policy Position ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
The Us

Studies have shown that a foreign policy position of a member of Congress is often distinct from a domestic one. Despite this, measures commonly used to determine the foreign policy positions of members of Congress are based on congressional votes on domestic as well as foreign policy matters. As foreign policy votes take up only a small portion of all congressional votes, these measures conflate a member’s foreign policy position with his or her domestic policy position. While there are other measures based exclusively on foreign policy votes, these are also problematic because they tend to use a small number of controversial votes and thus inflate extremism. To address these shortcomings, I present a new measure by applying a Bayesian item response theory model to all foreign policy votes. This paper demonstrates the similarities, differences, and advantages of this measure by comparing it with the existing measures in a series of analyses of foreign policy positions of political parties and individual legislators.

scholarly journals National ideals or national interest: New Zealand and South Africa, 1981-1994

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Lauren Peacock
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
South African ◽  
National Interest ◽  
Political Transformation ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The Government ◽  
The 1960S

<p>“National ideals or National Interest?” examines the making and implementation by successive New Zealand governments of policy toward apartheid South Africa from 1981 to 1994. Its main focus is the contradictory relationship between living up to New Zealand’s ideals against doing what was practicable in the context of the time. The dilemma the apartheid state faced, in trying to solve its internal problems while not imperilling its external security was often not appreciated by the New Zealand government. These misconceptions helped shape New Zealand policy. Ironically once the South African regime began to investigate the possibilities of some sort of political transformation, their New Zealand counterparts were less willing to empathise with the risks involved with such an undertaking than they had been in the 1960s and 1970s. “National Ideals’ also examines the role of civil society and what was often a parallel unofficial foreign policy based around these person -to - person contacts, including the problems posed for the government by the need to persuade groups such as the NZRFU to follow government policy without overstepping what were strongly entrenched principles of individual freedom. The conflicts within the two main political parties of New Zealand were also important in shaping policy, as was the adversarial relationship between the major parties. “National Ideals” concluded that more often than not interests came first and indeed that at times policy decisions often to the product of accident and intrigue.</p>

Womanhood Is Sisterhood

2020 ◽  
pp. 29-69
Author(s):  
Mary J. Henold
Keyword(s):  
Women Religious ◽  
Catholic Culture ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Over Time

This chapter uses the group the Theresians as a case study to analyze shifting perceptions of Catholic laywomen’s vocation in the 1960s and 1970s. The Theresians was founded in the early 1960s by Fr. Elwood Voss as a group for laywomen to promote vocations to the Catholic sisterhoods. The organization’s founding was an outgrowth of the perceived vocation crisis that began in the late 1950s in the American church. Theresians at this time were consistently taught to privilege the “higher” vocation of women religious (nuns) rather than their own vocations as married or single laywomen. Such beliefs were reinforced by a mid-century Catholic culture that discouraged friendship between laywomen and sisters, and emphasized not only sisters’ special sanctity, but also their authority over laywomen. Over time, however, lay and religious Theresians came to challenge the idea of laywomen’s inferiority, and the group sought new ways of expressing and affirming laywomen’s vocational choices and Catholic women’s self-definition.

Ordinary Opinions of Everyday Mexicans: Polling from the 1940s–2012

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roderic Ai Camp
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
First Time ◽  
Public Opinion Polls ◽  
Opinion Polls ◽  
Over Time

The evolution of the importance of public opinion in Mexico is intertwined with the emphasis of scholars, both foreign and Mexican, introducing survey research techniques. These efforts became more common in the 1960s and 1970s, but became increasingly significant in the 1980s, when major newspapers and other publications begin to sponsor wide-ranging public opinion polls. Public opinion polls played a critical role in Mexico’s democratic political transition during the 1980s and 1990s, informing ordinary Mexicans about how their peers viewed candidates and important policy issues, while simultaneously allowing citizens, for the first time, to assess a potential candidate’s likelihood of winning an election before the vote, while also confirming actual election outcomes through exit polls. Polling data reveal changing social, religious, economic, and political attitudes among Mexicans over time, revealing the importance of both traditional and contemporary values in explaining citizen behavior.

A Movement Society Evaluated: Collective Protest in The United States, 1960-1986

2005 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 345-364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Soule ◽  
Jennifer Earl
Keyword(s):  
Social Movement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Significant Activity ◽  
Movement Organization ◽  
Key Characteristics ◽  
Negative Findings ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
The Right ◽  
Over Time

In an attempt to make sense of shifts in the social movement sector and its relationship to conventional politics over the past forty years, some have proposed that Western nations are increasingly becoming "movement societies." Accordingly, there are four key characteristics of the movement society: (1) over time expansion of protest; (2) over time diffusion of protest; (3) over time institutionalization of protest; and (4) over time institutionalization of state responses to protest. Using newly available data on over 19,000 protest events occurring in the U.S. between 1960 and 1986, we evaluate these four claims. Our findings suggest that movement society scholars are correct in some respects: the size of protest events has grown over time, the percentage of events at which at least one social movement organization is present has increased over time, the number of distinct protest claims has increased over time, and violent forms of protest policing have decreased over time. However, our findings call into question other movement society claims: the number of protests has declined over time, fewer organizations were present at each protest event over time, fewer new groups initiated events over time, fewer new claims emerged over time, and there was more significant activity by groups on the right in the 1960s and 1970s than expected. We suggest potential explanations for some of the negative findings in an attempt to refine the movement society arguments.

States and the Making of the “Service” Party: The Case of the Postwar Ohio Republican Party

2010 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 519-537 ◽  
Author(s):  
BRIAN M. CONLEY
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
National Level ◽  
Party Organization ◽  
Service Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Organizational Continuity ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Over Time

During the second half of the twentieth century, at a time when most observers thought they were in decline, parties were in fact transformed in the US. At the center of this change, scholars argue, was the development, at the national level, of a more centralized and professionally oriented “service” model of party organization within the Republican Party. What the emphasis on the national level obscures, however, is the important role that state parties played in the development of a service style of party organization prior to the 1960s. Nowhere was this more evident than in Ohio, where the postwar Republican Party, led by Ray Bliss, had a significant impact on the development of this new, more centralized “service” approach to party organization. The Bliss model represented one of the most fully developed examples to date, at any level, of the service party, as demonstrated by its organizational continuity over time, and its influence on the subsequent institutionalization of a similar structure within the Republican Party nationally in the 1960s and 1970s.

scholarly journals National ideals or national interest: New Zealand and South Africa, 1981-1994

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Lauren Peacock
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
South African ◽  
National Interest ◽  
Political Transformation ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The Government ◽  
The 1960S

<p>“National ideals or National Interest?” examines the making and implementation by successive New Zealand governments of policy toward apartheid South Africa from 1981 to 1994. Its main focus is the contradictory relationship between living up to New Zealand’s ideals against doing what was practicable in the context of the time. The dilemma the apartheid state faced, in trying to solve its internal problems while not imperilling its external security was often not appreciated by the New Zealand government. These misconceptions helped shape New Zealand policy. Ironically once the South African regime began to investigate the possibilities of some sort of political transformation, their New Zealand counterparts were less willing to empathise with the risks involved with such an undertaking than they had been in the 1960s and 1970s. “National Ideals’ also examines the role of civil society and what was often a parallel unofficial foreign policy based around these person -to - person contacts, including the problems posed for the government by the need to persuade groups such as the NZRFU to follow government policy without overstepping what were strongly entrenched principles of individual freedom. The conflicts within the two main political parties of New Zealand were also important in shaping policy, as was the adversarial relationship between the major parties. “National Ideals” concluded that more often than not interests came first and indeed that at times policy decisions often to the product of accident and intrigue.</p>

Constrained Politics: Labour Market Actors, Political Parties and Swedish Labour Immigration Policy

2017 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frida Boräng ◽  
Lucie Cerna
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Immigration Policy ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Union Power ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Party Manifestos ◽  
Labour Immigration ◽  
Elite Interviews ◽  
The 1960S

Sweden used to be one of the most restrictive countries in the Organisation of Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) in terms of labour immigration policy. This was drastically changed in 2008 when a very liberal immigration law was passed. Why did one of the most restrictive labour immigration countries suddenly become one of the most liberal ones? The article argues that it is necessary to consider labour market institutions and their consequences for labour migration. These factors will influence the preferences, strategies and chances of success for various policy actors. A decline in union power and corporatism in Sweden had important consequences for its labour immigration. Following this decline, employers and centre-right parties became more active and adopted more liberal policy positions than previously. The article analyses policy developments since the 1960s and draws on official documents, position statements, party manifestos, media coverage and original elite interviews.

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