The Regime Debate Revisted: A Sensitivity Analysis of Democracy's Economic Effect

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 635-655 ◽  
Author(s):  
JONATHAN KRIECKHAUS
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Control Variables ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Effect On Growth

Some studies find that democracy inhibits growth while other studies find that democracy facilitates growth. Which conclusion is correct? To help resolve this debate, a variety of sensitivity analyses is conducted to answer two basic questions. First, why has the literature yielded contradictory results? Secondly, how believable are these results? The existing contradictions can be explained by analysts' choice of time period, with democracy having a negative effect on growth in the 1960s, a positive effect in the 1980s and no effect at all in the 1970s and 1990s. More generally, however, it is shown here that the statistical significance of these findings varies radically depending upon which control variables one utilizes and how one measures both growth and democracy.

scholarly journals EFECT OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS ON NIGERIAN ECONOMY

10.26458/1814 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-122
Author(s):  
Lawrence Olisaemeka UFOEZE ◽  
Camilus OKUMA, N. ◽  
Clem NWAKOBY ◽  
Udoka Bernard Alajekwu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Fixed Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

This study investigated the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on Nigerian economy. The fixed and floating exchange eras were compared to know the exchange rate system in which the economy has fairly better. The time period covered was 1970 to 2012. The study employed the ordinary least square (OLS) multiple regression technique for the analysis. The coefficient of determination (R2), F-test, t-test, beta and Durbin-Watson were used in the interpretation of the results. The resulted revealed that about 85% of the changes in macroeconomic indicators are explained in the fixed exchange era. In the floating exchange era, 99% was explained while the whole periods has 73% explanatory power, hence the floating exchange era (1986 to date) is more effective in explaining economic trend in Nigeria. Also, exchange rate has significant positive effect on GDP during the fixed exchange rate era and negative effect the eras floating and all-time; inflation has insignificant negative effect on GDP during the fixed exchange era; significant effect in floating era and significant negative effect in the all-time period; money supply has insignificant negative effect GDP in fixed exchange era; and significant positive effect during the floating and all-time period; and oil revenue has significant positive effect on the GDP in all the exchange rate regimes (floating, fixed and all-time) in Nigeria.  The study thus conclude that exchange rate movement is a good indicator for monitoring Nigerian economic growth. So far exchange rate has always been a key economic indicator for Nigeria. The floating exchange period has outperformed the fixed exchange rate in terms of contribution inflation, money supply and oil revenue to economic growth. This indicate that the floating exchange rate has been a better economic regime for sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. From the findings, it is evident that oil revenue has positive effect in Nigeria and has remained the mainstay of the economy. It is thus recommended among other things that a positive exchange rate stock should be monitored regularly, so as not to allow those that find exchange rate as an avenue of investment like banks and public carry out their business, which is more devastating to the economy. 

scholarly journals Growth and Income Inequality: A Comparative Analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayla Ogus Binatli
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Growth Changes ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Over Time

This paper investigates whether the relationship between income inequality and growth changes over time. Two time periods, covering 1970–1985 and 1985–1999, are analyzed and compared. A statistically significant relationship between inequality and growth in either time period fails to emerge. However, there are indications that effect of inequality on growth may be different in the nineties when compared to the seventies. In the literature, a consistent negative effect of inequality on growth is documented although the significance of the effect is open to debate. This paper also finds a negative effect of income inequality on growth in the seventies but, although statistically insignificant, a consistently positive effect in the nineties.

scholarly journals The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis

Public Choice ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 185 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 87-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Espen Geelmuyden Rød ◽  
Carl Henrik Knutsen ◽  
Håvard Hegre
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Control Variable ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Empirical Measures ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Political Protests ◽  
Natural Resources Education ◽  
Development Processes ◽  
Democratic Survival

Abstract Numerous studies—operating with diverse model specifications, samples and empirical measures—suggest different economic, social, cultural, demographic, institutional and international determinants of democracy. We distinguish between democratization and democratic survival and test the sensitivities of 67 proposed determinants by varying the control variable set, democracy measure, and sample time period. Furthermore, we go beyond existing sensitivity analyses and unpack the aggregate results by analyzing how theoretically motivated control variables affect sensitivity for two prominent determinants in the democracy literature: income and Islam. Overall, our results reveal a far larger number of robust determinants of democratization than of democratic survival. For democratic survival, the only robust factors are income and a law-abiding bureaucracy. In addition, our results highlight uncertainty surrounding the relationship between income and democratization, but show that broader development processes enhance the chances of democratization. Moreover, chances of democratization are lower in countries with large Muslim populations, but that relationship is sensitive to controlling for natural resources, education and neighborhood characteristics. Other results of the sensitivity analysis show that political protests, a democratic neighborhood, and the global proportion of democracies positively influence democratization, while natural resources, majoritarian systems, and long-tenured leaders make countries less likely to democratize.

INFLATION, LIQUIDITY, AND LONG-RUN GROWTH

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 888-906 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ge Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Data Sensitivity ◽  
Effect On Growth

This paper revisits the long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth by exploring the impact of inflation on investment. I illustrate that inflation may have a positive effect on growth by mitigating the liquidity risks of investment projects. Together with the traditional effect of the “inflation tax” on investment, a hump-shaped relationship between inflation and economic growth can be obtained in a calibrated model, which is consistent with the US postwar data. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the degree of financial development and the magnitude of the aggregate liquidity demand help explain the mixed empirical findings.

scholarly journals The Effect of Financial Literacy and Financial Experience on SME Financial Behavior in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-45
Author(s):  
Wida Purwidianti ◽  
Naelati Tubastuvi
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Regression Analysis ◽  
Financial Literacy ◽  
Education Level ◽  
Financial Behavior ◽  
Company Size ◽  
Control Variables ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of financial literacy and financial experience on SMEs financial behavior in Indonesia.The dependent variable is financial behavior while independent variables are financial literacy and financial experience. There are four control variables used, namely company size, business length, age and education level of SME owner. The respondent sample is 42 owners of SMEs in Purwokerto Selatan. This study used multiple regression analysis. The results showed that financial literacy has no effect on financial behavior. Financial experience has a positive effect on financial behavior. While among four control variables, only company size has a significant negative effect on financial behavior. Three control variables have no significant effect on financial behavior. The implication of this study, SME owners have good financial experience will increase financial behavior. Therefore, it is very important to improve the financial experience of SME owners

scholarly journals How robust are findings of pairwise and network meta-analysis in the presence of missing participant outcome data?

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Loukia M. Spineli ◽  
Chrysostomos Kalyvas ◽  
Katerina Papadimitropoulou
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Systematic Reviews ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Outcome Data ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Logarithmic Scale ◽  
Primary Analysis ◽  
Current Sensitivity ◽  
Meta Analyses

Abstract Background To investigate the prevalence of robust conclusions in systematic reviews addressing missing (participant) outcome data via a novel framework of sensitivity analyses and examine the agreement with the current sensitivity analysis standards. Methods We performed an empirical study on systematic reviews with two or more interventions. Pairwise meta-analyses (PMA) and network meta-analyses (NMA) were identified from empirical studies on the reporting and handling of missing outcome data in systematic reviews. PMAs with at least three studies and NMAs with at least three interventions on one primary outcome were considered eligible. We applied Bayesian methods to obtain the summary effect estimates whilst modelling missing outcome data under the missing-at-random assumption and different assumptions about the missingness mechanism in the compared interventions. The odds ratio in the logarithmic scale was considered for the binary outcomes and the standardised mean difference for the continuous outcomes. We calculated the proportion of primary analyses with robust and frail conclusions, quantified by our proposed metric, the robustness index (RI), and current sensitivity analysis standards. Cohen’s kappa statistic was used to measure the agreement between the conclusions derived by the RI and the current sensitivity analysis standards. Results One hundred eight PMAs and 34 NMAs were considered. When studies with a substantial number of missing outcome data dominated the analyses, the number of frail conclusions increased. The RI indicated that 59% of the analyses failed to demonstrate robustness compared to 39% when the current sensitivity analysis standards were employed. Comparing the RI with the current sensitivity analysis standards revealed that two in five analyses yielded contradictory conclusions concerning the robustness of the primary analysis results. Conclusions Compared with the current sensitivity analysis standards, the RI offers an explicit definition of similar results and does not unduly rely on statistical significance. Hence, it may safeguard against possible spurious conclusions regarding the robustness of the primary analysis results.

Use of a marine reserve to determine the direct and indirect effects of fishing on growth in a New Zealand fishery for the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (5) ◽  
pp. 894-905 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debbie J. Freeman ◽  
Paul A. Breen ◽  
Alison B. MacDiarmid
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rates ◽  
Marine Reserve ◽  
Spiny Lobster ◽  
Catch Per Unit Effort ◽  
Density Dependent ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Jasus Edwardsii ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Similar Growth ◽  
Positive Effect

The effects of fishing on growth in a spiny lobster, Jasus edwardsii , were explored by using a no-take marine reserve as a control for these effects. We analysed data from lobster tag–recapture studies outside the reserve from 1975 until the present and tag–recapture from inside the reserve during a recent 8-year study. We explored whether recent and historical data showed similar growth and, using catch per unit effort (CPUE) data from research potting and commercial returns, whether growth rates in this lobster species were affected by population density. Despite the confounded nature of the data, recent growth rates appeared to be lower than in earlier years, growth appeared weakly density-dependent, and the reserve appeared to have a positive effect on lobster growth. The strongest effect was the time period, but the density-dependent and reserve effects appeared real. The reserve effect suggests a negative effect of handling of sublegal-sized lobsters on growth.

scholarly journals WHO COMES AND WHY? DETERMINANTS OF IMMIGRANTS SKILL LEVEL IN THE EARLY XXTH CENTURY US

2015 ◽  
Vol 81 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matías Covarrubias ◽  
Jeanne Lafortune ◽  
José Tessada
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Incentives ◽  
Skill Level ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Migration Costs ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract:This paper first elaborates a model of intermediate selection where potential migrants must have both the resources to finance the migration cost (liquidity constraint restriction) and an income gain of migrating (economic incentives restriction). We then test the predictions of the model regarding the impact of output in the sending country and migration costs on average skill level of immigrants to the United States from 1899 to 1932, where immigration was initially unrestricted by law and then highly limited. Our panel of 39 countries includes data on occupations that immigrants had in their country of origin, providing a more accurate skill measure than previously available datasets. We find that migration costs have a negative but skill-neutral effect on quantity of immigrants and an increase in output, measured as GDP per capita, has a positive effect on quantity and a negative effect on average skill level of immigrants, suggesting that the main channel by which changes in output affected the average skill level of migrants in that time period is through the easing or tightening of the liquidity constraints and not through the economic incentives as in previous models. Also, using migrants’ occupation in the United States as a measure of skills would lead to misleading conclusions.

scholarly journals Signalling Effect of Auditor Reputation and Lock-Up Period on Over-Subscription Ratio: Evidence from Malaysian Fixed-Price IPOs

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 253-267
Author(s):  
Ali Albada ◽  
Othman Yong ◽  
Soo-Wah Low
Keyword(s):  
Least Square ◽  
Capital Gain ◽  
Control Variables ◽  
Fixed Price ◽  
Initial Return ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Institutional Involvement ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Auditor Reputation

This study investigates the signalling effect of auditor reputation and lock-up period on the subscription demand of investors in the Malaysian IPO market that uses the fixed-price method in pricing IPOs. The study sample covers 420 IPOs listedon Bursa Malaysia from January 2000 to December 2015. The present study employsOrdinary Least Square(OLS)andQuantile Regression(QR)methodsin investigating the signalling effect on over-subscription ratio (OSR). The results indicate that auditor reputation has a negative effect and the lock-up period has a positive effect on OSR. This shows that investors’ demand in Malaysia is driven by capital gain and not by the quality of the listing firm. This is also supported by the control variables, where IPOs with low initial return, high offer price, high institutional involvement, and reputable underwriterhave lower OSR because they have lower initial returns.

scholarly journals Determinants of Big and Medium Industrial Manufacturing Agglomeration in West Java Province

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nur Annisa Karima ◽  
Lilis Siti Badriah ◽  
Diah Setyorini Gunawan
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Agglomeration ◽  
West Java ◽  
Section Data ◽  
Industrial Manufacturing ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Data Regression ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Balassa Index

The aims of this research are to analyze whether or not the manufacture industrial agglomeration in West Java Province and to analyze the factors that can affect the agglomeration especially manufacture industrial agglomeration in West Java Province. This research using Hoover Balassa Index and panel data regression with time period data 6 years (2014-2019) and 27 regencies/cities as cross-section data. The results of this research are : (1) there is no manufacture industrial agglomeration in West Java Province, (2) gross regional domestic product has a negative effect on manufacture industrial agglomeration, (3) minimum wage has a positive effect on manufacture industrial agglomeration, (4) population has a negative effect on manufacture industrial agglomeration. As an implication of the conclusion above, every province or regency/city should seek and make their region as a pole of the agglomeration and the effort that can be done are create some regulations which can support industrial establishment and development easier, giving the information about business and capital, create some regulations about wage, building partnership among companies to create backward and forward linkage.Keywords: Agglomeration, Hoover Balassa Index, Concentration Index

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