scholarly journals How Does Uncertainty Affect Voters' Preferences?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Love Christensen
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Equal Weight ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Preference Model ◽  
Conflicting Information ◽  
Spatial Preference ◽  
Uncertain Outcomes ◽  
Policy Proposals

Rational voters care about outcomes, while parties campaign on policy proposals, the outcomes of which are never perfectly known. Can parties exploit this uncertainty to shape public opinion? This article presents a spatial preference model for policy proposals with uncertain outcomes. It reports the results of a large pre-registered survey experiment that involved presenting respondents with predictions about the effects of three policy proposals. The findings show that respondents update their attitudes to the proposals as their beliefs about outcomes change, and that parties are no less able to influence beliefs than non-partisan experts. Contrary to previous research, respondents discount outcome uncertainty by giving equal weight to conflicting optimistic and pessimistic predictions. The study shows that parties can shape public opinion by influencing voter beliefs, and that voters are not repelled by the uncertainty inherent in conflicting information.

Climate Change as a National Security Issue: Examining Framing Effects Across Party

2021 ◽  
pp. 1532673X2110532
Author(s):  
Jason Gainous ◽  
Melissa K. Merry
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
National Security ◽  
Energy Dependence ◽  
Opposite Direction ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Security Issue ◽  
Political Candidates ◽  
Democrats And Republicans ◽  
Climate Change Attitudes

Research suggests that framing climate change as a national security issue can shape opinion about climate change. This research is less clear about what exactly constitutes a “national security frame” and what aspects of this frame are most persuasive. We use a survey experiment to compare the relative effects of three types of national security frames we identify. Results show that a frame centered on energy dependence had the strongest effect and was the most consistent across partisanship. Surprisingly, the effects ran in the opposite direction for Democrats and Republicans on both outcomes—negative for Democrats and positive for Republicans. We also show that the energy dependence frame moderated the influence of respondents’ affect toward political candidates and parties on their climate change attitudes. The results suggest that the energy dependence frame can shape public opinion, but that it must be tailored to particular audiences to avoid backfire effects.

A WTO Ruling Matters: Citizens’ Support for the Government’s Compliance with Trade Agreements

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Naoko Matsumura
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
World Trade Organization ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Trade Dispute ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Wto Agreements

AbstractAn international court’s ruling is expected to influence public opinion because of the perception of its legality and the subsequent costs of noncompliance. However, there has been little direct empirical evidence to support this claim. To close this lacuna, I conducted a survey experiment to examine the power of a court’s ruling in the context of a trade dispute. The experiment shows that citizens become less supportive of their government’s noncompliance with GATT/WTO agreements when the World Trade Organization issues an adverse ruling, compared to when their government is verbally accused of a violation of the same agreements by a foreign country. However, the experiment also finds that the impact of a ruling is conditional upon the level of compliance of the winner of the dispute.

Support at Any Distance? The Role of Location and Prejudice in Public Opposition to the “Ground Zero Mosque”

2013 ◽  
Vol 46 (04) ◽  
pp. 753-759
Author(s):  
Brian F. Schaffner
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
York City ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Ground Zero ◽  
Multicultural Center ◽  
Public Opposition

AbstractIn 2010, a debate erupted about plans to construct a mosque (as part of a larger multicultural center) approximately two blocks from Ground Zero in New York City. The main justification given by those who opposed the mosque was that building it so close to Ground Zero would appear to be insensitive. Public opinion appeared to support this notion, as large majorities of Americans registered their opposition to the mosque in surveys conducted at the time. In this article, I examine whether distance was, in fact, an important factor influencing citizens' opposition to the mosque. Using a survey experiment, I asked for opinions on the building of a mosque while randomizing how far the mosque was located from Ground Zero. Results from the experiment indicate that opposition to the mosque was unaffected by how far the mosque would be located from Ground Zero, but strongly influenced by factors such as partisanship, ideology, and tolerance for out groups.

scholarly journals Effects of Media Exposure to Conflicting Information About Mammography: Results From a Population-based Survey Experiment

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (10) ◽  
pp. 896-908 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebekah H Nagler ◽  
Marco C Yzer ◽  
Alexander J Rothman
Keyword(s):  
Health Information ◽  
Socioeconomic Position ◽  
Media Exposure ◽  
Population Based ◽  
News Story ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Cognitive Responses ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
Conflicting Information

Abstract Background Although there is growing theoretical and empirical support for the proposition that media exposure to conflicting health information negatively influences public understanding and behavior, few studies have causally linked exposure to conflict with undesirable outcomes. Such outcomes might be particularly likely in the context of mammography, given widespread media attention to conflicting recommendations about the age at and frequency with which average-risk women should be screened for breast cancer. Purpose The current study tests whether exposure to conflicting information about mammography negatively influences women’s affective and cognitive responses and examines whether effects vary by socioeconomic position. Methods We conducted an online survey experiment in 2016 with a population-based sample of U.S. women aged 35–55 (N = 1,474). Participants were randomly assigned to one of four conditions that differed in the level of conflict about mammography presented in a news story (no, low, medium, or high conflict), stratifying by poverty level. Results Greater exposure to conflict increased women’s negative emotional responses to the story they read, their confusion about and backlash toward cancer prevention recommendations and research, and their ambivalence about mammography and other types of cancer screening, though ambivalence leveled off at high levels of exposure. There was little evidence that effects varied across socioeconomic position. Conclusions Findings add to the growing evidence base documenting undesirable outcomes of exposure to conflicting health information. Future research should examine whether the negative affective and cognitive responses observed translate into behavior, which could have implications for both health campaigns and patient-provider communication.

How Priming Innocence Influences Public Opinion on Police Misconduct and False Convictions

2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 174-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen M. Donovan ◽  
Charles F. Klahm
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Use Of Force ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
Police Misconduct ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Police Use Of Force ◽  
The Public ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Nationally Representative

Issues of innocence have become more salient to the public in recent years, including the problem of police misconduct. However, citizens also tend to be supportive of the police, perceiving them as ethical, honest, and trustworthy. Using a survey experiment with a nationally representative sample, we explore the degree to which public opinion toward police misconduct is influenced by priming respondents on the issue of innocence. We find that reminding citizens of these issues increases their willingness to admit police misconduct that contributes to this problem by roughly 7 percentage points overall. Moreover, this effect is driven by conservatives and, to a lesser extent, moderates, presumably because liberals do not need priming. In contrast, the efficacy of the prime was not affected (i.e., moderated) by the race of the respondent. We place these results in the context of the current debate regarding police use of force as well as the ideological divide in rhetoric surrounding the recent string of high-profile police shootings.

Priming Legality: Perceptions of Latino and Undocumented Latino Immigrants

2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 106-113
Author(s):  
Katherine T. McCabe ◽  
Yalidy Matos ◽  
Hannah Walker
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Political Communication ◽  
Representative Sample ◽  
Latino Immigrants ◽  
Undocumented Immigration ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Priming Effects ◽  
Policy Debates ◽  
Documentation Status ◽  
Nationally Representative

Previous work has shown public opinion toward immigrants is malleable based on how immigrants are described in media and elite rhetoric. In a survey experiment on a nationally representative sample of American adults, we extend this research to test for possible priming effects that occur based on how salient documentation status is when respondents proffer opinions on Latino immigrants. Our findings show that when subjects are first asked about “undocumented Latino immigrants,” their attitudes toward “Latino immigrants,” appear more negative, relative to when they are first asked about “Latino immigrants” without invoking the legal modifier. Respondents channel their negative associations with “illegal” or “undocumented” immigration into their opinions of Latino immigrants writ large. The results have implications for political communication, media reporting on immigration, and policy debates, which frequently discuss both “legal” and “undocumented” immigration in the same context.

Partisanship vs. Principle: Understanding Public Opinion on Same-Day Registration

2019 ◽  
Vol 83 (3) ◽  
pp. 568-583
Author(s):  
Devin McCarthy
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
American Politics ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Major Party ◽  
Opposing Party ◽  
Rule Change ◽  
Democratic Principles ◽  
Democrats And Republicans ◽  
Election Laws

Abstract Voter access has become a deeply polarized issue in American politics. It is well known that policymakers’ positions on election laws are often dictated by whether they think the laws will help their electoral interests and those of their party. But we know little about whether public opinion on election laws is similarly driven by partisan interest or is instead constrained by concerns of procedural legitimacy. To answer this question, I conduct a survey experiment that frames the issue of same-day registration (SDR) in terms of which major party it is expected to help electorally. The results provide clear evidence that both Democrats and Republicans are less likely to support SDR after being told the policy will primarily increase turnout among voters of the opposing party, but little evidence that being told SDR will benefit their own party affects opinion. These findings suggest an asymmetry in citizens’ willingness to choose partisan interest over democratic principles based on whether they perceive a rule change as benefiting the in-party or out-party.

Public Opinion and Crisis Behavior in a Nuclearized South Asia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Clary ◽  
Sameer Lalwani ◽  
Niloufer Siddiqui
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
South Asia ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Opportunity Costs ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Military Leaders ◽  
Audience Costs ◽  
Target States ◽  
Crisis Behavior

Abstract Research on public opinion and crisis behavior has focused largely on pressures felt by leaders who have initiated a crisis, not on leaders in target states responding to adversary provocation. Our survey experiment involving 1,823 respondents in Punjab, Pakistan, finds public support for escalating rather than de-escalating in response to such provocation. It shows how public pressures can encourage conflict even in instances where a leader has engaged in no prior effort to generate audience costs following crisis onset. Survey respondents were more likely to support escalatory decisions if they were made by a military, rather than civilian, leader, although we do not find that military leaders receive more support in de-escalatory decisions. Finally, while we demonstrate that leaders can mitigate the costs of de-escalating by highlighting the dangers of conflict, they still incur opportunity costs in foregone public support when they opt to de-escalate rather than escalate a crisis.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document