The Rise of Third Parties in the 1993 Canadian Federal Election: Pinard Revisited

2004 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 581-594 ◽  
Author(s):  
Éric Bélanger
Keyword(s):  
Third Parties ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Major Party ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Party Dominance

Abstract. This study proposes a new test of Maurice Pinard's theory on the rise of third parties applied to the case of the 1993 Canadian federal election. We assess the effect at the individual level of Pinard's factors (one-party dominance and grievances) on support for the Reform party and the Bloc Québécois using data from the Canadian Election Study. Logistic regression analyses of vote choice indicate that the extent to which the second major party was perceived to be electorally weak at the constituency level was a significant factor in leading some Western voters to support Reform. In Quebec, however, perceptions of predominance did not matter to a vote for the Bloc because the latter is a “radical” third party attracting support mostly on the basis of communal values and interests. The results further show that political grievances, but not economic ones, were a significant predictor of support for both third parties in that election.Résumé. Cette étude propose un nouveau test empirique de la théorie de Maurice Pinard concernant la percée électorale des tiers partis. L'impact des facteurs de Pinard (prédominance d'un parti et présence de griefs) sur l'appui au Parti réformiste et au Bloc québécois à l'élection fédérale canadienne de 1993 est vérifié au niveau micro-sociologique à l'aide des données de l'Étude sur l'élection canadienne. Les analyses de régression logistique du vote indiquent que la perception que certains électeurs de l'Ouest avaient de la faible compétitivité du second parti traditionnel dans leur circonscription les a encouragés à appuyer le Parti réformiste. Au Québec, les perceptions de prédominance n'ont cependant pas eu d'effet significatif sur le vote en faveur du Bloc en raison du fait que ce dernier est un tiers parti “ radical ” dont l'appui repose principalement sur des valeurs et des intérêts de groupe. Les résultats indiquent enfin que, contrairement aux griefs de nature économique, les griefs politiques régionaux ont significativement contribué au succès électoral des deux partis.

The Effect of Political Trust on the Presidential Vote, 1968–96

1999 ◽  
Vol 93 (2) ◽  
pp. 311-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc J. Hetherington
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Political Trust ◽  
Third Parties ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Major Party ◽  
Incumbent Party

Scholars have consistently demonstrated that no link exists between declining political trust and declining turnout, but they have paid less attention to the effect of trust on vote choice. In an era characterized by declining trust, the incumbent party has lost, and third parties have strongly contested, four of the last eight presidential elections. Such outcomes are historically anomalous. This study demonstrates that declining political trust affects vote choice, but the electoral beneficiary differs according to electoral context. In two-candidate races, politically distrustful voters support candidates from the nonincumbent major party. In races with three viable candidates, third-party alternatives benefit from declining political trust at the expense of both major parties.

Antipartyism and Third-Party Vote Choice

2004 ◽  
Vol 37 (9) ◽  
pp. 1054-1078 ◽  
Author(s):  
Éric Bélanger
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Third Parties ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Major Party ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Minor Parties ◽  
Compulsory Voting ◽  
Per Se ◽  
Mass Level

The effect of antiparty sentiment on voting behavior is examined comparatively using recent individual-level electoral survey data from Canada, Britain, and Australia. The author distinguishes two dimensions of antipartyism: the rejection of traditional major-party alternatives (specific antiparty sentiment) and of political parties per se (generalized antiparty sentiment). He argues that disaffected voters in these countries are attracted to third or minor parties and support them to voice antiparty sentiments. The results show that in general, third parties benefit from specific antiparty sentiment at the mass level. The rejection of party politics per se, in contrast, brings citizens to abstain, unless some third parties—antiparty parties such as the Reform Party in Canada and One Nation in Australia—electorally mobilize generalized antiparty feelings. The results also indicate that compulsory voting in Australia affects disaffected voters’ behavior; in particular, those who reject all party alternatives would be more likely to abstain if they had the choice.

Did They Mind the Gap? Voter/Party Ideological Proximity between the BQ, the NDP and Quebec Voters, 2006–2011

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Philippe Gauvin ◽  
Chris Chhim ◽  
Mike Medeiros
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Party Manifestos ◽  
Longitudinal Approach ◽  
The Face ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThe 2011 Canadian federal election results changed the face of federal politics in Quebec. In a sudden and spectacular reversal of electoral fortunes, BQ support crumbled while that of the NDP surged. While most commentators focused exclusively on the 2011 election itself to explain what had happened, we offer an interpretation that takes a longitudinal approach. Using data from the Canadian Election Study and political party manifestos from 2006 to 2011, we propose a three-dimensional proximity model of voter/party congruence to explore the evolution of the ideological stances of Quebec voters and parties. Empirical results suggest these ideological distances between the NDP and Quebec voters decreased over time, whereas the BQ has distanced itself from voters. Furthermore, ideological distances between party and voters are a significant predictor of vote.

scholarly journals On “Nationology”: The Gravitational Field of National Culture

2021 ◽  
pp. 002202212110447
Author(s):  
Plamen Akaliyski ◽  
Christian Welzel ◽  
Michael Harris Bond ◽  
Michael Minkov
Keyword(s):  
Gravitational Field ◽  
Cultural Values ◽  
National Culture ◽  
Random Noise ◽  
Religious Groups ◽  
Individual Values ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Collective Phenomenon ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual

Nations have been questioned as meaningful units for analyzing culture due to their allegedly limited variance-capturing power and large internal heterogeneity. Against this skepticism, we argue that culture is by definition a collective phenomenon and focusing on individual differences contradicts the very concept of culture. Through the “miracle of aggregation,” we can eliminate random noise and arbitrary variation at the individual level in order to distill the central cultural tendencies of nations. Accordingly, we depict national culture as a gravitational field that socializes individuals into the orbit of a nation’s central cultural tendency. Even though individuals are also exposed to other gravitational forces, subcultures in turn gravitate within the limited orbit of their national culture. Using data from the World Values Survey, we show that individual values cluster in concentric circles around their nation’s cultural gravity center. We reveal the miracle of aggregation by demonstrating that nations capture the bulk of the variation in the individuals’ cultural values once they are aggregated into lower-level territorial units such as towns and sub-national regions. We visualize the gravitational force of national cultures by plotting various intra-national groups from five large countries that form distinct national clusters. Contrary to many scholars’ intuitions, alternative social aggregates, such as ethnic, linguistic, and religious groups, as well as diverse socio-demographic categories, add negligible explained variance to that already captured by nations.

Disentangling Differences in Homicide Incarceration Rates by Immigration Status: A Comparison in Texas

2020 ◽  
pp. 001112872094096
Author(s):  
Erin A. Orrick ◽  
Alexander H. Updegrove ◽  
Alex R. Piquero ◽  
Tomislav Kovandzic
Keyword(s):  
Undocumented Immigrants ◽  
Immigrant Status ◽  
Immigration Status ◽  
Incarceration Rate ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Crime And Punishment ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Immigration And Crime

Research addressing the purported relationship between immigration and crime remains popular, but some gaps remain under-explored. One important gap involves disentangling differences in crime and punishment by immigrant status, as measured across different definitions of immigration status and in relation to U.S. natives, at the individual level. Using data from Texas, results show that native-born U.S. citizens are incarcerated for homicide at higher rates than almost all immigrant groups. While the incarceration rate for undocumented immigrants was 24% greater than the rate for all foreign-citizens, this rate was significantly less than that for U.S. citizens. Among the immigrant status classifications available in this study, all were associated with lower incarceration rates for homicide than that of U.S. citizens.

Religion and Grassroots Social Conservatism in Canada

2019 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 865-881
Author(s):  
Sarah Wilkins-Laflamme ◽  
Sam Reimer
Keyword(s):  
Adult Population ◽  
Value Orientation ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Same Sex ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Social Conservatism

AbstractWith a decisive Liberal party electoral victory in 2015, observers are now wondering if religious conservatism's role in the Canadian political landscape is waning. Using data from the Canadian Election Study (CES) from the years 2004 to 2015, we find that respondents’ attitudes toward same-sex marriage and women working outside the home have moved left on the spectrum among both the general population and more religious voters. However, this does not go hand in hand with a decline in the effect strength of religiosity on the Conservative vote, which remains significant across the five federal elections examined in this study. Conservative religious voters now make up a smaller share of the adult population, but their issue positions on sexual morals and gender roles, along with the wider conservative value orientation these issues represent, remain important in their vote choice.

scholarly journals Unravelling ecological analysis

2006 ◽  
Vol 2006 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. G. Steel ◽  
M. Tranmer ◽  
D. Holt
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Aggregate Data ◽  
Auxiliary Variables ◽  
Ecological Analysis ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Ecological Regression ◽  
Australian Census ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual

Ecological analysis involves analysing aggregate data for groups of individuals to make inferences about relationships at the individual level. Often the results of such analyses give badly biased estimates. This paper will consider the sources of bias in linear regression analysis using aggregate data. The role of variation of the individual level relationships between groups and the consequent within-group correlations and how these are related to auxiliary variables that characterise the differences between groups is considered. A method of adjusting ecological regression for the effects of auxiliary variables is described and evaluated using data from the 1991 Australian Census.

The Average Response Method of Scaling

1990 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert E. Beaton ◽  
Eugene G. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Predictive Distribution ◽  
Average Response ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Multiple Imputations ◽  
Plausible Values ◽  
Scale Scores ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Response Method

The average response method (ARM) of scaling nonbinary data was developed to scale the data from the assessments of writing conducted by the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP). The ARM applies linear models and multiple imputations technologies to characterize the predictive distribution of the person-level average of ratings over a pool of exercises when each person has responded to only a few of the exercises. The derivations of “plausible values” from the individual-level distributions of potential scale scores are given. Conditions are provided for the unbiasedness of estimates based on the plausible values, and the potential magnitude of the bias when the conditions are not met is indicated. Also discussed is how the plausible values allow for an accounting of the uncertainties due to the sampling of individuals and to the incomplete information on each sampled individual. The technique is illustrated using data from the assessment of writing.

Partisanship, Militarized International Conflict, and Electoral Support for the Incumbent

2017 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 172-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shane P. Singh ◽  
Jaroslav Tir
Keyword(s):  
Political Behavior ◽  
Comparative Politics ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Interstate Disputes ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Militarized Interstate Disputes

Comparative politics scholarship often neglects to consider how militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) shape political behavior. In this project, we advance an argument that considers voter responses to international conflict at the individual level. In particular, we consider how the well-known conditioning effects of partisanship manifest in relation to militarized international conflict. Examining individual- and macro-level data across ninety-seven elections in forty-two countries over the 1996–2011 period, we find consistent evidence of militarized conflict impacting vote choice. This relationship is, however, moderated by partisanship, conflict side (initiator or target), and conflict hostility level. Among non-copartisan voters, the incumbent benefits the most electorally from initiating low-hostility MIDs or when the country is a target of a high-hostility MID; the opposite scenarios (initiator of a high-hostility MID or target of a low-hostility MID) lead to punishment among this voter group. Copartisans, meanwhile, tend to either maintain or intensify their support in most scenarios we examine; when a country is targeted in a low-hostility MID, copartisan support erodes mildly.

Redistribution under the Social Security benefit formula at the individual and household levels, 1992 and 2004

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
ALAN L. GUSTMAN ◽  
THOMAS L. STEINMEIER ◽  
NAHID TABATABAI
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
Social Security Benefit ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Social ◽  
High Earning ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Over Time

AbstractStudies using data from the early 1990s suggested that while the progressive Social Security benefit formula succeeded in redistributing benefits from individuals with high earnings to individuals with low earnings, it was much less successful in redistributing benefits from households with high earnings to households with low earnings. Wives often earned much less than their husbands. As a result, much of the redistribution at the individual level was effectively from high earning husbands to their own lower earning wives. In addition, spouse and survivor benefits accrue disproportionately to women from high income households. Both factors mitigate redistribution at the household level. It has been argued that with the increase in the labor force participation and earnings of women, Social Security now should do a better job of redistributing benefits at the household level. To be sure, when we compare outcomes for a cohort with a household member age 51 to 56 in 1992 with those from a cohort born twelve years later, redistribution at the household level has increased over time. Nevertheless, as of 2004 there still is substantially less redistribution of benefits from high to low earning households than from high to low earning individuals.

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