CREDIT AND THE PROBLEM OF TRUST IN THE THOUGHT OF JOHN LOCKE, c. 1668–1704

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
JON COOPER

Abstract This article presents a reinterpretation of John Locke's contribution to debates about the interest rate in the seventeenth century. It suggests that his argument that England should maintain the ‘natural’ rate, rather than impose a lower rate, was motivated by his theological, moral, and social conceptions of credit and its dependence on trust. In order to solve the endemic shortage of metal coin limiting the growth of monetary exchange in England, Locke stressed that the higher, ‘natural’ rate of interest would facilitate interpersonal borrowing and lending among neighbours, allowing currency to flow more freely around the country. By contrast, while he acknowledged that institutional creditors such as goldsmith-bankers could quicken the circulation of money by issuing debt instruments like bills of exchange, he saw institutional credit as a threat to the moral community. Not only did he question how people could rationally trust financiers without any epistemic apprehension of their personal probity, but he moreover doubted whether individuals accumulating so much money were likely to act trustworthily. Finally, using an otherwise unstudied dialogue about the Bank of England, this article argues Locke extended his criticisms about the threats posted by private banks to the country's nascent system of public credit.

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 966-979
Author(s):  
Cleomar Gomes da Silva ◽  
Rafael Cavalcanti de Araújo

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the conduct of monetary policy in Brazil and estimate the country’s neutral real interest rate. Design/methodology/approach The authors make use of a state-space macroeconomic model representation. Findings The period of analysis goes from 2003 up to the end of 2013 and the results show that the country’s natural rate of interest was around 4.2 percent in December 2013. Originality/value One of the main differences of this work is the inclusion of variables such as the real exchange rate and world interest rate. This is important because these variables play an important role in the definition of the interest rate and, consequently, in the definition of the neutral interest rate.


2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 390
Author(s):  
Ilyas Siklar ◽  
Umit Yildiz ◽  
Sinan Cakan

In this study, by estimating the natural rate of interest, its relationship with key macroeconomic variables is analyzed using the time series data obtained from Turkey. As a first step, together with the natural rate of interest, the potential levels of output, prices and foreign exchange rate are estimated by using the Kalman Filter algorithm and then the related gap levels of each variable representing the deviations from their potentials are determined. As a second step of the study, the effects of output, price and exchange rate gaps on the interest rate gap are analyzed by using cointegration and error correction methodologies and the causality relationship among variables are examined. The main conclusion of the current study is that there is significant causality relationship between the interest rate gap, output, price and exchange rate gaps.


2016 ◽  
Vol 91 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 161-176
Author(s):  
Maral Kichian

The natural rate of interest is an unobservable entity and its measurement presents some important empirical challenges. In this paper, we use identification-robust methods and central bank real-time staff projections to obtain estimates for the equilibrium real rate from contemporaneous and forward-looking Taylor-type interest rate rules. The methods notably account for the potential presence of endogeneity, under-identification, and errors-in-variables concerns. Our applications are conducted on Canadian data. The results reveal some important identification difficulties associated with some of our models, reinforcing the need to use identification-robust methods to estimate such policy functions. Despite these challenges, we are able to obtain fairly comparable point estimates for the real equilibrium interest rate across our different models, and in the case of the best fitting model, also remarkable estimate precision.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (3) ◽  
pp. 3-16
Author(s):  
Aleksandr Kovalev

This article deal with the discussion between F. Hayek and P. Sraffa in the 1930s. This piece of the history of economic thought is not presented in the Russian-speaking literature. The main method is a content analysis. The directions of criticism Hayek’s business cycle theory by Sraffa and the response towards is analyzed in the paper. The author compared the opponents’ approaches to the essence of the equilibrium, to the savings-investments equality, to the possibility to lose capital as a result of malinvestments, to the role of expectations, and to the natural rate of interest. A version was offered for explaining the ineffectiveness of Hayek's answer to the question on the multiplicity of natural interest rates and the reasons why the barter economy has been perceived as theoretical basis of the Hayekian analysis. It is the inaccurate wording of the natural interest rate and the representation the theory within the framework of the equilibrium paradigm. The findings of the research may be applied to analyze the impact of interest rate regulation on the economic.


Author(s):  
Iván Weigandi

Este trabajo busca analizar los efectos de la disposición de tasas activas máximas y tasas pasivas mínimas por parte del Banco Central de la República Argentina sobre el spread entre el cociente de ingresos financieros sobre los préstamos y el cociente de los egresos sobre los depósitos de los bancos privados que operaron en Argentina en el periodo 20122015. Luego de enumerar algunos modelos teóricos post-keynesianos para explicar cómo definen las diferentes tasas nominales los bancos comerciales, se analiza desde los estados financieros, como se comporto efectivamente el spread bajo las distintas regulaciones de la autoridad monetaria central. Los resultados demuestran que mas allá de las tasas máximas y mínimas, el spread efectivo no disminuyó, sino todo lo contrario. ABSTRACT: This paper aims to analyze the effects that maximum lending rates and minimum time deposit rates provided by the Central Bank of Argentina had on the spread between the ratio of financial income on loans, and the ratio of financial expenditures on the private banks deposits, operating in Argentina between 2012 and 2015. After reviewing some post-keynesians theories to explain how the commercial banks define the different nominal rates, this article analyzes, based on the financial statements, the actual spread behavior under the regulations of the central monetary authority. The results show that beyond the maximum and minimum rates, the effective spread does not decrease, but quite the opposite.


2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 456-483
Author(s):  
Jugnu Ansari ◽  
Saibal Ghosh

Employing disaggregated data for 2001–2016, this study investigates the lending and loan pricing behaviour of state-owned and domestic private banks in response to monetary policy. Three major findings emerge. First, although both the interest rate and the bank lending channels are relevant for monetary pass-through, there is a trade-off: the impact of the former is much higher than the latter, although it occurs with a significant lag. Second, domestic private banks have a far greater response to a monetary policy shock under the interest rate channel, whereas state-owned banks display a greater response under the bank-lending channel. And finally, state-owned banks cut back lending during periods of crises, although no such response is manifest in domestic private banks. JEL Codes: C23, D4, E43, E52, G21, L10


2011 ◽  
Vol 71 (3) ◽  
pp. 555-589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christophe Chamley

In the 1730s and 1750s the English government proposed to refinance the redeemable debt by “lowering the interest rate.” In the ensuing coordination game among creditors, large investors like the Bank of England could block the policy change by demanding cash. Using 4 percent and 3 percent annuities prices to analyze market expectations, this article studies two refinancing episodes with very different fates. Lord Barnard failed in 1737 because his terms were too strict and financial agents induced a temporary market crash. Lord Pelham succeeded in 1750 because his better terms fit market prices, and interest rates had fallen much faster than expected.


2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-253
Author(s):  
Mihai Macovei

The new “secular stagnation hypothesis” developed by Lawrence H. Summers attempts to justify why the demand stimulus applied in the aftermath of the global financial crisis failed to revive growth in a satisfactory manner. Building on previous ideas of Keynes, Hansen, and Bernanke, Summers claims that excess savings together with feeble investment drove the natural rate of interest down to zero and advanced economies into stagnation. As the US monetary policy rate is not allowed to fall below the zero bound, Summers calls for “quantitative easing” and more expansionary fiscal policy to spur investment demand. This paper refutes Summers’s hypothesis by revealing its internal inconsistencies and presenting both theoretical arguments and empirical evidence on the long-term evolution of savings, investment, productivity, and capital stock. It also estimates the natural rate of interest following the approach of Salerno (2020), which is further refined based on Rothbard’s “pure interest rate” theory. The calculation shows that the natural interest rate did not drop to zero after the global financial crisis, but has actually remained consistently and significantly above the federal funds rate and the bank loan prime rate. This not only invalidates Summers’s central claim, but confirms once more the explanatory power of the Austrian business cycle theory in relation to the main trigger of the global financial crisis and its subsequent unfinished recovery.


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