Price Stability and Central Bank Independence: Discipline, Credibility, and Democratic Institutions

2014 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Bodea ◽  
Raymond Hicks
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Central Bank Independence ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Interference ◽  
Yearly Data

AbstractDespite mixed empirical evidence, in the past two decades central bank independence (CBI) has been on the rise under the assumption that it ensures price stability. Using an encompassing theoretical approach and new yearly data for de jure CBI (seventy-eight countries, 1973–2008), we reexamine this relationship, distinguishing the role of printing less money (discipline) from the public's beliefs about the central bank's likely actions (credibility). Democracies differ from dictatorships in the likelihood of political interference and changes to the law because of the presence of political opposition and the freedom to expose government actions. CBI in democracies should be directly reflected in lower money supply growth. Besides being more disciplinarian, it also ensures a more robust money demand by reducing inflation expectations and, therefore, inflation. Empirical results are robust and support a discipline effect conditioned by political institutions, as well as a credibility effect.

scholarly journals Central Bank Independence, Financial Instability and Politics: New Evidence for OECD and Non-OECD Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 179
Author(s):  
Pistoresi B. ◽  
Cavicchioli M. ◽  
Brevini G.
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Central Bank Independence ◽  
Financial Instability ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Institutional Variables ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Bank Money

This paper analyses the determinants of a new index of central bank independence, recently provided by Dincer and Eichengreen (2014), using a large database of economic, political and institutional variables. Our sample includes data for 31 OECD and 49 non-OECD economies and covers the period 1998-2010. To this aim, we implement factorial and regression analysis to synthesize information and overcome limitations such as omitted variables, multicollinearity and overfitting. The results confirm the role of the IMF loans program to guide all the economies in their choice of more independent central banks. Financial instability, recession and low inflation work in the opposite direction with governments relying extensively on central bank money to finance public expenditure and central banks’ political and operational autonomy is inevitably undermined. Finally, only for non-OECD economies, the degree of central bank independence responds to various measures of strength of political institutions and party political instability.

scholarly journals MACROFINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY OF CENTRAL BANKS: THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS AND INSTITUTIONAL DILEMMAS

2017 ◽  
pp. 139-157
Author(s):  
Viktor KOZJUK
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Institutional Design ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Central Bank Independence ◽  
Macroeconomic Fluctuations ◽  
Price Stability

Introduction. Postcrisis tendency to enhance central bank’s macrofinancial responsibility should be related to real-financial inter-linkages rethinking but not to activistic demand management. Different approaches on how price stability and financial stability are inter-related, as well, as different institutional modalities of how to achieve them are making more complicate optimal institutional design of central bank with increased zone of responsibility. Purpose. Taking into account different macroeconomic viewpoints on the role of financial instability in macroeconomic fluctuations and institutional challenges for central bank independence the purpose of the paper is to validate that enhanced macrofinancial responsibility of central banks should be balanced by additional measures in direction to facilitate autonomous regulatory status. Results. Different views on how to enhance macroeconomic stability and what the role of central banks in new macrofinancial environment provide serious challenge for optimal designing of central bank’s macrofinancial responsibility. The problem not only relate to how price and financial stability are inter-related but also to how define the wrong way policy then price and financial stability are in non-linear relations. The difficulties in this segment may affect far reaching political consequences while assessing central bank from political economy point of view. Also it is necessary to take into account that macroprudential toolkit may overlap with monetary policy instruments providing additional regulatory distortions. Clear institutialisation of relations between price and financial stability responsibilities will help to avoid political economy type of manipulations with central bank new tasks. Priority of price stability should be kept while financial stability mandate should be clarified and tied to macroprudential regulation. In the same time more active central bank’s participance in the post-crisis economy should be based not on standard Keynesian activism but on enhanced financial responsibility balanced with protection of central bank independence in new regulatory areas. Conclusions. It the article it is stressed that enhanced macrofinancial responsibility should be based on unchanged priority of price stability mandate, increased level of central bank independence and coordination between monetary and macroprudential policies. It is shown that vulnerability of macrofinancial responsibilities to political pressure is going to increase. Political independence of central banks should protect them in the area of price stability and financial stability all together.

scholarly journals Central Bank Independence and Financial Stability: Orthodox and Heterodox Approaches

2017 ◽  
pp. 6-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktor Koziuk
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Central Bank Independence ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Regulatory Regime ◽  
Financial Cycle ◽  
Stability Issues

This study argues that post-crisis discussions on central bank independence are less about a choice of a level of independence but more about a relation between the independence and the central bank mandate in financial stability. An offered hypothesis states that an increasing role of financial factors in the macroeconomic policy agenda has led to emerging of two approaches to the central bank independence. Within the orthodox approach, responsibility for the financial stability is a challenge to the accepted model: one mandate – one goal – one instrument. Interference into the financial cycle impairs transparency and distorts responsibility, while deflation bias risks get in conflict with price stability principles, adherence to which is exactly what central banks are granted independence for. In terms of the heterodox approach, a wider responsibility of central banks for financial stability requires more independence to protect the legitimacy of interference into the financial cycle and implementation of a more prudent regulatory regime. Orthodox view is contradictory in its nature, while the vulnerability of the second approach lies in quality of institutional environment. Price stability mandate is argued to remain the first priority, while the financial stability issues should be institutionalized in a clearer way to secure independence.

scholarly journals A historical analysis of central bank independence in Latin America: the Colombian experience, 1923-2008

2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adolfo Meisel ◽  
Juan D. Barón
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Historical Analysis ◽  
Central Bank Independence ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis paper explores the relationship between central bank independence and inflation in Latin America, using the experience of Colombia (1923-2008) as a case study. Since its creation, in 1923, Colombia’s central bank has undergone several reforms that have changed its objectives and degree of independence. Between 1923 and 1951, it was private and independent, with a legal commitment to price stability. In 1962, monetary responsibilities were divided between a government-dominated monetary board, in charge of monetary policies, and the central bank, which carried them out. In the early 1990s, the bank recovered its independence and its focus on price stability. Inflation varied substantially during these subperiods. Our analysis suggests that the central bank independence, combined with a commitment to price stability, renders the best results in terms of price stability.

Monetary Policy Committees and Central Bank Communication

2020 ◽  
pp. 19-44
Author(s):  
Nicole Baerg
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Size Composition ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Central Bank Communication ◽  
Central Bank Transparency ◽  
Key Policy

This chapter starts by tracing trends in central bank transparency. It reports key policy changes by some of the world’s most important central banks: the FOMC, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. The second section reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on central bank design, paying close attention to the role of committee size, composition, and decision-making protocol, and classifies central banks around the world according to these features. The third section outlines the aim of central bank communications: to broadcast news and to reduce noise. The author argues that while previous literature has examined both committee design and central bank communications, it has done so in isolation. By putting these two topics together, the chapter argues that we can better understand, first, how different types of committees may be better at communicating and, second, how communication affects households’ inflation expectations and inflation.

The rule of law, central bank independence and price stability

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 659-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
DANIYAR NURBAYEV
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Central Bank Independence ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
Inflation Volatility ◽  
Central Bank Autonomy ◽  
Bank Autonomy

AbstractThis work empirically investigates the effect of the interaction between the rule of law and legal central bank independence (CBI) on price stability (the level of inflation and inflation volatility), employing a panel dataset that covers up to 124 countries over the period from 1970 to 2013. A new, largely complete legal CBI dataset, covering 182 countries was used for the work. The results indicate that the effect of legal CBI on price stability depends on the strength of the rule of law. Moreover, the results reveal that legal CBI has no significant effect on price stability when the rule of law is weak. The findings also show that 67% of advanced countries possess a rule of law that is strong enough to maintain price stability by increasing central bank autonomy, while only 4.5% of developing countries possess it.

scholarly journals The Effect of Central Bank Independence on Price Stability: The Case of Indonesia

2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 353-376
Author(s):  
Yessy Andriani ◽  
Prof. Prasanna Gai
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Central Bank Independence ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Inflation Target ◽  
Partial Adjustment ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
The Relationship

This paper investigates the relationship between central bank independence (CBI) and inflation in Indonesia during 1970-2006. Using partial adjustment Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Engel Granger Error Correction Model, the result shows that legal CBI index inversely affect the inflation, while the turnover of governor is not significant. This result emphasizes Bank Indonesia to strengthen its independency in order to achieve his inflation target. Keywords: Central bank independency, Inflation, Error Correction Model.JEL Classification : C32, E58

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