scholarly journals Natural Climate Variability During the Holocene

Radiocarbon ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 837-854 ◽  
Author(s):  
V A Dergachev ◽  
O M Raspopov ◽  
F Damblon ◽  
H Jungner ◽  
G I Zaitseva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Cosmogenic Isotope ◽  
Radiocarbon Age ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
Climatic Time Series ◽  
Natural Climate ◽  
Isotope Content

High-precision radiocarbon age calibration for different terrestrial samples allows us to establish accurate boundaries for many climatic time series. At the same time, the fluctuations of 14C content reflect solar variability. A bispectrum analysis of long-term series of the 14C content deduced from decadal measurements in tree rings demonstrates the existence of amplitude modulation, with a period of main modulation of ∼2400 yr. In 14C time series for the last 11 kyr, major oscillations are distinguished at 8.5–7.8, 5.4–4.7, 2.6–2.2, and 1.1–0.4 cal kyr BP with ∼2400-yr periodicity. High amplitudes in cosmogenic isotope content with a periodicity of about 2400 yr appear synchronous to cooling events documented in Greenland ice cores, to the timing of worldwide Holocene glacier expansion, and to the periods of lake-level changes. This paper focuses on revealing solar forcing on the Earth's climate and about the nature, significance, and impact of sharp Holocene climate variability on human societies and civilizations.

scholarly journals An Efficient Prediction Model for Water Discharge in Schoharie Creek, NY

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katerina G. Tsakiri ◽  
Antonios E. Marsellos ◽  
Igor G. Zurbenko
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Statistical Methodology ◽  
Summer Period ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Efficient Prediction ◽  
Climatic Time Series

Flooding normally occurs during periods of excessive precipitation or thawing in the winter period (ice jam). Flooding is typically accompanied by an increase in river discharge. This paper presents a statistical model for the prediction and explanation of the water discharge time series using an example from the Schoharie Creek, New York (one of the principal tributaries of the Mohawk River). It is developed with a view to wider application in similar water basins. In this study a statistical methodology for the decomposition of the time series is used. The Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filter is used for the decomposition of the hydrological and climatic time series into the seasonal and the long and the short term component. We analyze the time series of the water discharge by using a summer and a winter model. The explanation of the water discharge has been improved up to 81%. The results show that as water discharge increases in the long term then the water table replenishes, and in the seasonal term it depletes. In the short term, the groundwater drops during the winter period, and it rises during the summer period. This methodology can be applied for the prediction of the water discharge at multiple sites.

scholarly journals Climate variability in West Antarctica derived from annual accumulation-rate records from ITASE firn/ice cores

2004 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
pp. 585-594 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Kaspari ◽  
Paul A. Mayewski ◽  
Daniel A. Dixon ◽  
Vandy Blue Spikes ◽  
Sharon B. Sneed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Accumulation Rate ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Cyclonic Activity ◽  
West Antarctica ◽  
Sea Level Pressure

AbstractThirteen annually resolved accumulation-rate records covering the last ~200 years from the Pine Island–Thwaites and Ross drainage systems and the South Pole are used to examine climate variability over West Antarctica. Accumulation is controlled spatially by the topography of the ice sheet, and temporally by changes in moisture transport and cyclonic activity. A comparison of mean accumulation since 1970 at each site to the long-term mean indicates an increase in accumulation for sites located in the western sector of the Pine Island–Thwaites drainage system. Accumulation is negatively associated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for sites near the ice divide, and periods of sustained negative SOI (1940–42, 1991–95) correspond to above-mean accumulation at most sites. Correlations of the accumulation-rate records with sea-level pressure (SLP) and the SOI suggest that accumulation near the ice divide and in the Ross drainage system may be associated with the mid-latitudes. The post-1970 increase in accumulation coupled with strong SLP–accumulation-rate correlations near the coast suggests recent intensification of cyclonic activity in the Pine Island– Thwaites drainage system.

scholarly journals Identifying Signatures of Natural Climate Variability in Time Series of Global-Mean Surface Temperature: Methodology and Insights

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (22) ◽  
pp. 6120-6141 ◽  
Author(s):  
David W. J. Thompson ◽  
John M. Wallace ◽  
Phil D. Jones ◽  
John J. Kennedy
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Natural Variability ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
Global Mean Surface Temperature ◽  
Natural Climate ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract Global-mean surface temperature is affected by both natural variability and anthropogenic forcing. This study is concerned with identifying and removing from global-mean temperatures the signatures of natural climate variability over the period January 1900–March 2009. A series of simple, physically based methodologies are developed and applied to isolate the climate impacts of three known sources of natural variability: the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), variations in the advection of marine air masses over the high-latitude continents during winter, and aerosols injected into the stratosphere by explosive volcanic eruptions. After the effects of ENSO and high-latitude temperature advection are removed from the global-mean temperature record, the signatures of volcanic eruptions and changes in instrumentation become more clearly apparent. After the volcanic eruptions are subsequently filtered from the record, the residual time series reveals a nearly monotonic global warming pattern since ∼1950. The results also reveal coupling between the land and ocean areas on the interannual time scale that transcends the effects of ENSO and volcanic eruptions. Globally averaged land and ocean temperatures are most strongly correlated when ocean leads land by ∼2–3 months. These coupled fluctuations exhibit a complicated spatial signature with largest-amplitude sea surface temperature perturbations over the Atlantic Ocean.

scholarly journals Assessing Landsat Fractional Ground-Cover Time Series across Australia's Arid Rangelands: Separating Grazing Impacts from Climate Variability

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Barnetson ◽  
Stuart Phinn ◽  
Peter Scarth ◽  
Robert Denham
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Ground Cover ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Change Point Detection ◽  
Grazing Impact ◽  
Growth Cycles ◽  
Grazing Impacts ◽  
Arid Rangelands

Suitable measures of grazing impacts on ground cover, that enable separation of the effects of climatic variations, are needed to inform land managers and policy makers across the arid rangelands of the Northern Territory of Australia. This work developed and tested a time-series, change-point detection method for application to time series of vegetation fractional cover derived from Landsat data to identify irregular and episodic ground-cover growth cycles. These cycles were classified to distinguish grazing impacts from that of climate variability. A measure of grazing impact was developed using a multivariate technique to quantify the rate and degree of ground cover change. The method was successful in detecting both long term (> 3 years) and short term (< 3 years) growth cycles. Growth cycle detection was assessed against rainfall surplus measures indicating a relationship with high rainfall periods. Ground cover change associated with grazing impacts was also assessed against field measurements of ground cover indicating a relationship between both field and remotely sensed ground cover. Cause and effects between grazing practices and ground cover resilience can now be explored in isolation to climatic drivers. This is important to the long term balance between ground cover utilisation and overall landscape function and resilience.

scholarly journals Temperature and mineral dust variability recorded in two low accumulation Alpine ice cores over the last millennium

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Bohleber ◽  
Tobias Erhardt ◽  
Nicole Spaulding ◽  
Helene Hoffmann ◽  
Hubertus Fischer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Mineral Dust ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Temperature Reconstruction ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
European Alps ◽  
Annual Layer ◽  
Instrumental Temperature

Abstract. Among ice core drilling sites in the European Alps, the Colle Gnifetti (CG) glacier saddle is the only one to offer climate records back to at least 1000 years. This unique long-term archive is the result of an exceptionally low net accumulation driven by wind erosion and rapid annual layer thinning. To-date, however, the full exploitation of the CG time series has been hampered by considerable dating uncertainties and the seasonal summer bias in snow preservation. Using a new core drilled in 2013 we extend annual layer counting, for the first time at CG, over the last 1000 years and add additional constraints to the resulting age scale from radiocarbon dating. Based on this improved age scale, and using a multi-core approach with a neighboring ice core, we explore the potential for reconstructing long-term temperature variability from the stable water isotope and mineral dust proxy time series. A high and potentially non-stationary isotope/temperature sensitivity limits the quantitative use of the stable isotope variability thus far. However, we find substantial agreement comparing the mineral dust proxy Ca2+ with instrumental temperature. The temperature-related variability in the Ca2+ record is explained based on the temperature-dependent snow preservation bias combined with the advection of dust-rich air masses coinciding with warm temperatures. We show that using the Ca2+ trends for a quantitative temperature reconstruction results in good agreement with instrumental temperature and the latest summer temperature reconstruction derived from other archives covering the last 1000 years. This includes a Little Ice Age cold period as well as a medieval climate anomaly. In particular, part of the medieval climate period around 1100–1200 AD stands out through an increased occurrence of dust events, potentially resulting from a relative increase in meridional flow and dry conditions over the Mediterranean.

Climate Measurement and Modeling

1997 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas V. Hoyt ◽  
Kenneth H. Shatten
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Variations ◽  
Noise Sources ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Natural Climate

Having considered the sun and its variations, we now turn to Earth’s climate and climatic variations. We examine the definition of climate and the difficulties in measuring it. Awareness of these complexities is critical for an appreciation of how difficult it is to demonstrate changing climate. Separating trends from random variations is the first step in defining climate change. After reviewing the statistical properties of climate, we deal with theoretical climate models. This background is important for understanding how solar variations might affect climate. The following four chapters review specific sun/climate relationships, and the statistical and physical guidelines developed now will be used to select pertinent studies. As the heat source that drives Earth’s climate, the variable sun is important when studying climate change. With many, if not most, modern popular accounts focusing on how humanity is altering climate, it is important to realize that solar variations may play a significant role in the background natural variability. To understand anthropogenic (human-made) influences on climate change, we must be able to make distinctions among the contributions that arise from naturally occurring climate variability. Natural climate variations include a possible solar-irradiance component. Man-made climatic changes are not well known, and natural climate variations are uncertain too. For example, we do not know whether a man-made doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide provides a 1.5 or a 4.5 °C increase in mean global temperature. This uncertainty arises, in part, because natural climate variability acts as “noise” to confuse our measures of man-made influences. To obtain accurate results, we must understand and remove these background noise sources. Although these temperature changes seem small, they can have tremendous global impact on the survivability of species and on many different aspects of life. In addition, the uncertainty factor of 3 is highly important because it tells us that the risk in emitting a quantity of carbon dioxide is uncertain by this same factor.

Weihe Basin Drilling Project (WBDP): Cenozoic tectonic-monsoon interactions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhisheng An ◽  
Peter Molnar ◽  
Peizhen Zhang ◽  
Hendrik Vogel ◽  
Mark Level ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Sedimentary Record ◽  
Weihe Basin ◽  
Drilling Project ◽  
Millennial Scale

<p>Earth’s climate underwent dramatic cooling throughout much of the Cenozoic, which has been linked to continental drift, mountain building, and the formation and expansion of ice-sheets in Antarctica and the Arctic. In particular, the India-Asia collision and uplift of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have been posited as critical events responsible for increasing the rates of physical and chemical weathering on land, thereby decreasing the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere. The uplift of the TP ultimately led to the onset of the complexly coupled monsoon-arid environmental system in East Asia. Global-scale studies of Cenozoic deep-sea sediments and Quaternary ice cores indicate that, superimposed to the long-term cooling trend, climate variability at orbital-to-centennial time-scales is primarily induced by changing solar insolation and irradiance, and strongly modulated by complex internal land-air-ocean interactions. From the continental perspective, however, both the dynamics and impacts of long-term climate evolution and short-term climate variability remain poorly constrained due to the paucity of continuous terrestrial sequences spanning the entire Cenozoic.<br>The Weihe Basin is located in the monsoon-sensitive region to the north of the Qinling Mountains, a landform that constitutes the geographic and climatic boundary between northern and southern China. In the depocentre of this basin, a predominantly lacustrine sedimentary sequence with a thickness of >7 km, provides an unprecedented opportunity for: (1) reconstructing tectonic-to-millennial-scale climate changes from the Eocene to the present; (2) elucidating basin-mountain coupling processes; (3) assessing the effects of Cenozoic tectonic-climate interactions on the onset and evolution of the Asian paleomonsoon; and (4) investigating climatic/environmental impacts on the evolution of microbial communities. Importantly also, (5) sedimentary filling of the Weihe Basin can potentially yield unique high-resolution records of continental climate variability during high atmospheric CO2 periods of the Eocene, mid-Miocene, and Late Pliocene, and thus serve an analog for Earth’s near future climate.<br>The Weihe Basin Drilling Project (WBDP) proposes a two-phase drilling strategy to recover a complete as possible Cenozoic terrestrial sedimentary record from the eastern Weihe Basin depocenter. In the first phase (applied for here) we aim at producing a 3-km-long pilot sedimentary record (WBDP-1) to test the best suitable analytical approach and to reconstruct orbital-to-millennial-scale climate variability since the Late Miocene. In the second phase our aim is to produce a 7.5-km-long sedimentary record (WBDP-2) spanning the entire Cenozoic sedimentary infill of the Weihe Basin. The regional geological framework is well characterized through numerous exploration boreholes and detailed multichannel seismic reflection surveys. Scientific drilling operations will be accompanied by downhole logging, as well as on- and off-site analyses of the retrieved cores. The WBDP-1 borehole is expected to yield a world-class paleoclimate record for the last ~10 Ma and lead to fundamental advances in our understanding of multi-timescale climate variability and tectonic-climate monsoon linkages. The project will also enhance public awareness of human adaptation to Earth’s changing environment.</p>

scholarly journals The Importance of Climate Variability to Wind-Driven Modulation of Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (6) ◽  
pp. 1435-1440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm E. Scully
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Chesapeake Bay ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Nitrogen Loading ◽  
Nutrient Inputs ◽  
Westerly Direction ◽  
Hypoxic Volume

Abstract Extensive hypoxia remains a problem in Chesapeake Bay, despite some reductions in estimated nutrient inputs. An analysis of a 58-yr time series of summer hypoxia reveals that a significant fraction of the interannual variability observed in Chesapeake Bay is correlated to changes in summertime wind direction that are the result of large-scale climate variability. Beginning around 1980, the surface pressure associated with the summer Bermuda high has weakened, favoring winds from a more westerly direction, the direction most correlated with observed hypoxia. Regression analysis suggests that the long-term increase in hypoxic volume observed in this dataset is only accounted for when both changes in wind direction and nitrogen loading are considered.

scholarly journals Combination of Using Pairwise Comparisons and Composite Reference Series: A New Approach in the Homogenization of Climatic Time Series

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Domonkos
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Comparison Method ◽  
Homogenization Method ◽  
Pairwise Comparisons ◽  
Reference Series ◽  
Homogenization Methods ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Climatic Time Series ◽  
Natural Climate ◽  
Time Series Comparison

The removal of non-climatic biases, so-called inhomogeneities, from long climatic records needs sophistically developed statistical methods. One principle is that usually the differences between a candidate series and its neighbour series are analysed instead of directly the candidate series, in order to neutralize the possible impacts of regionally common natural climate variation on the detection of inhomogeneities. In most homogenization methods, two main kinds of time series comparisons are applied, i.e. composite reference series or pairwise comparisons. In composite reference series the inhomogeneities of neighbour series are attenuated by averaging the individual series, and the accuracy of homogenization can be improved by the iterative improvement of composite reference series. By contrast, pairwise comparisons have the advantage that coincidental inhomogeneities affecting several station series in a similar way can be identified with higher certainty than with composite reference series. In addition, homogenization with pairwise comparisons tends to facilitate the most accurate regional trend estimations. A new time series comparison method is presented here, which combines the use of pairwise comparisons and composite reference series in a way that their advantages are unified. This time series comparison method is embedded into the ACMANT homogenization method, and tested in large, commonly available monthly temperature test datasets.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document