Cognitively Impaired Older Adults: Risk Profiles for Institutionalization

2003 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 351-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurel A. Strain ◽  
Audrey A. Blandford ◽  
Lori A. Mitchell ◽  
Pamela G. Hawranik
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Cognitive Impairment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Disruptive Behaviors ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Cognitively Impaired ◽  
Risk Profiles ◽  
Medium Risk

Background: This study focused on the identification of risk profiles for institutionalization among older adults diagnosed with cognitive impairment-not dementia or dementia in 1991/92 and subsequent institutionalization in the following 5-year period. Methods: Data were from a sample of 123 individuals aged 65+ and their unpaid caregivers in Manitoba, Canada. Cluster analysis was conducted using baseline characteristics of age, cognition, disruptive behaviors, ADLs/IADLs, use of formal in-home services, and level of caregiver burden. Results: Three distinct groups emerged (high-risk [n = 12], medium risk [n = 40], and low risk [n = 71]). The high-risk group had the poorest cognitive scores, were the most likely to exhibit disruptive behaviors, were the most likely to need assistance with ADLs and IADLs, and had the highest level of burden among their caregivers. Follow-up of the groups validated the risk profiles; 75% of the high-risk group were institutionalized within the next 5 years, compared to 45% of the medium-risk group and 21% of the low-risk group. Discussion: The risk profiles highlight the diversity among individuals with cognitive impairment and the opportunity for differential targeting of services for the distinct needs of each group.

scholarly journals Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anand Veeravagu ◽  
Amy Li ◽  
Christian Swinney ◽  
Lu Tian ◽  
Adrienne Moraff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Spine Surgery ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Acs Nsqip ◽  
Medium Risk

OBJECTIVEThe ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort.METHODSThe spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery.RESULTSThe authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60–0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60–0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48–0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently produced complication predictions that underestimated complication occurrence: 3.4% in the low-risk group (observed 12.6%), 5.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 34.5%), and 12.5% in the high-risk group (observed 38.8%). The RAT was more accurate than the ACS NSQIP calculator (p = 0.0018).CONCLUSIONSWhile the RAT and ACS NSQIP calculator were both able to identify patients more likely to experience complications following spine surgery, both have substantial room for improvement. Risk stratification is feasible in spine surgery procedures; currently used measures have low accuracy.

Impact of Stratification of Comorbidities on Nutrition Indices and Survival in Patients on Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis

2009 ◽  
Vol 29 (2_suppl) ◽  
pp. 153-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narayan Prasad ◽  
Amit Gupta ◽  
Archana Sinha ◽  
Anurag Singh ◽  
Raj Kumar Sharma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Comorbid Illness ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Risk Patients

Background Case-mix comorbidities and malnutrition influence outcome in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients. In the present study, we analyzed the influence of stratified comorbidities on nutrition indices and survival in CAPD patients. Patients and Methods We categorized 373 CAPD patients (197 with and 176 without diabetes) into three risk groups: low—age under 70 years and no comorbid illness; medium—age 70 – 80 years, or any age with 1 comorbid illness, or age under 70 years with diabetes; high—age over 80 years, or any age with 2 comorbid illnesses. We then compared nutrition indices and malnutrition by subjective global assessment (SGA) between the three groups. Survival was compared using Kaplan–Meier survival analysis. Results Mean daily calorie and protein intakes in the low-risk group (21 ± 6.7 Kcal/kg, 0.85 ± 0.28 g/kg) were significantly higher than in the medium- (17.6 ± 5.2 Kcal/kg, 0.79 ± 0.25 g/kg) and high-risk (17.5 ± 6.1 Kcal/kg, 0.78 ± 0.26 g/kg) groups ( p = 0.001 and p = 0.04 respectively). Relative risk (RR) of malnutrition was less in the low-risk group (103/147, 70.06%) than in the medium-risk group [135/162, 83.3%; RR: 2.0; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1 to 3.4; p = 0.01] or the high-risk group (54/64, 84.4%; RR: 2.3; 95% CI: 2.1 to 4.9; p = 0.03). Mean survivals of patients in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were 51 patient–months (95% CI: 45.6 to 56.4 patient–months), 43.3 patient–months (95% CI: 37.8 to 48.7 patient–months), and 29.7 patient–months (95% CI: 23 to 36.4 patient–months) respectively (log-rank: 35.9 patient–months; p = 0.001). The 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year patient survivals in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were 96%, 87%, 79%, 65%, and 56%; 89%, 67%, 54%, 43%, and 34%; and 76%, 48%, 31%, 30%, and 30% respectively. Conclusions Intake of calories and protein was significantly lower in the medium-risk and high-risk groups than in the low-risk group. Survival was significantly better in low-risk patients than in medium- and high-risk patients.

scholarly journals A clinical scoring system for predicting tumor recurrence after percutaneous radiofrequency ablation for 3 cm or less hepatocellular carcinoma

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Zhu He ◽  
Kun He ◽  
Rui Qin Huang ◽  
Li Wen Liu ◽  
Shao Wei Ye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Tumor Recurrence ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Clinical Scoring

AbstractPreoperative prediction of tumor recurrence after radiofrequency ablation (RFA) in patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is helpful for clinical decision-making before treatment. A total of 162 patients with HCC of 3 cm or less who were completely ablated by percutaneous RFA were divided into a derivation cohort (n = 108) and a validation cohort (n = 54). Based on X-Tiles software, Kaplan–Meier curve analysis and COX multivariate analysis to obtain valuable predictive indicators, a clinical scoring system for predicting tumor recurrence was established. In the verall cohort, derivation cohort and validation cohort, we found circulating tumor cells (CTC) > 2/3.2 mL, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) > 20 ng/mL, and des-γ-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) > 40 mAU/mL, maximum tumor diameter > 20 mm, and the number of multiple tumors (≥ 2) are independent risk factors affecting tumor recurrence. Each independent risk factor was assigned a score of 1 to construct a predictive clinical scoring system, and X-Tiles software was used to divide the clinical score into a low-risk group (0 score–1 score), a medium-risk group (2 scores–3 scores), and a high-risk group (4 scores–5 scores). The cumulative tumor recurrence rates of patients in the low-risk group, middle-risk group, and high-risk group in 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years were 19.4%/27.5%/30.9%, 37.0%/63.2%/79.9% and 68.2%/100%/100%, respectively (Low-risk group vs medium-risk group: P < 0.001; medium-risk group vs high-risk group: P < 0.001). This clinical scoring system can predict the prognosis of patients with HCC of 3 cm or smaller undergoing percutaneous RFA, which has certain application value for making preoperative clinical decisions.

scholarly journals Prognosis Evaluation of Universal Acute Coronary Syndrome: The Interplay between SYNTAX Score and ApoB/ApoA1

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaotong Wang ◽  
Zhongyu Wang ◽  
Bing Li ◽  
Ping Yang
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Independent Predictor ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Syntax Score ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Prognosis Evaluation

Abstract Background：Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a group of clinical syndromes associated with substantial morbidity and mortality rate. Syntax and Syntax II score used to be a reference for surgical selection of coronary revascularization and prognosis evaluation in patients with 3-vessel or left main artery disease. In addition, apoB/apoA1 is an important predictor of ACS risk. This study aims to assess the prognosis value of different kinds of SYNTAX score together with apoB/apoA1 in universal ACS patients (Regardless of ACS type, lesion location and vessel numbers). Method：396 patients with ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention（PCI）and coronary stenting from 2013 to 2014 were chosen and recorded the major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) and quality of life during the next 5 years. According to SYNTAX and SYNTAX II score, the patients were divided into low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk groups, and the clinical features, MACCE incidence and EQ-5D score at each time points were compared. And the predictive factors of MACCE incidence were analyzed. Results：①Compared with SYNTAX low-risk group, MACCE incidence in 1 year significantly increased in medium/high risk group（p=0.011）. Compared with SYNTAX II low-risk group, MACCE incidence in 5 years significantly increased in medium and high-risk group（p=0.032）.② Compared with SYNTAX II low-risk group，cardiovascular mortality in 3 and 5 years significantly elevated in high-risk group（p=0.001，p＜0.001 respectively）. ③ Compared with SYNTAX II low and medium-risk group, EQ-5D score in 5 years significantly decreased in high-risk group（p=0.019, p=0.023 respectively）. ④ ApoB/ApoA1 was more likely to be classified as high risk in SYNTAX/SYNTAX II medium and high-risk group（p=0.023，p=0.044 respectively）. ⑤Logistic regression analysis showed that apoB/apoA1 was an independent predictor of MACCE events in hospital and 5 years（p=0.038，p=0.016 respectively），SYNTAX score was an independent predictor of MACCE events in 1 year（medium-risk group：p=0.02；high-risk group：p=0.015）SYNTAX II score was an independent predictor of MACCE events in 5 yeasrs(p=0.003). Conclusions：①SYNTAX score has a high predictive value for short-term prognosis while SYNTAX II score is more predictive of long-term prognosis. ② SYNTAX II score is superior to SYNTAX score in predicting cardiovascular death. ③ The combination of apoB/apoA1 high-risk and SYNTAX II medium and high-risk group is the focus of clinical treatment and long-term follow-up observation.

scholarly journals Depression, Loneliness, Social Support, Activities of Daily Living, and Life Satisfaction in Older Adults at High-Risk of Dementia

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (24) ◽  
pp. 9448
Author(s):  
Sunghee Kim ◽  
Kwisoon Choe ◽  
Kyoungsook Lee
Keyword(s):  
Social Support ◽  
Older Adults ◽  
Life Satisfaction ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Activities Of Daily Living ◽  
Daily Living ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk

As the number of older adults with dementia increases, early diagnosis and intervention are crucially important. The purpose of this study was to conduct dementia screening on older adults to determine whether there are differences in depression, loneliness, social support, daily activities of living, and life satisfaction between older adults at high-risk for dementia compared with low-risk older adults. We hypothesized a negative relationship between high-risk older adults and these factors. This study also hypothesized a moderating effect for social support on the relationship between daily living activities and life satisfaction. This study used a cross-sectional design with survey data. Participants were recruited at 15 public community health centers in South Korea. A total of 609 older adults (male 208, female 401) living in the community were screened for early dementia, and 113 participants (18.9%) were assigned to the high-risk group. As hypothesized, participants in the high-risk group showed significantly more negative results in terms of activities of daily living, depression, loneliness, social support, and life satisfaction compared with participants in the low-risk group. The findings of this study provide a theoretical basis for the importance of early screening for dementia and policies for effective dementia prevention.

scholarly journals Increased Time Difference between Imagined and Physical Walking in Older Adults at a High Risk of Falling

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 332
Author(s):  
Hideki Nakano ◽  
Shin Murata ◽  
Kayoko Shiraiwa ◽  
Koji Nonaka
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Motor Imagery ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Time Difference ◽  
Imagery Ability ◽  
Risk Of Falling ◽  
Time Required

Walking motor imagery ability is thought to be associated with a fear of falling; however, no studies have compared fall risk and motor imagery ability. This study aimed to ascertain the time difference between imagined and physical walking in older adults at low and high risks of falling. Motor imagery ability was assessed using mental chronometry, which measures the imagined time required for movement. Participants included 31 older adults classified as having a high (n = 15) or low (n = 16) risk of falling based on single leg stance time. The time required for imagined and physical walking was measured using 5 m long walkways with three different widths (15, 25, and 50 cm), and the temporal errors (absolute and constant error) were compared. Physical walking time was significantly longer in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group for the 15 and 25 cm wide walkways. The absolute error between the imagined and physical walking times was significantly larger in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group for the 15 and 25 cm wide walkways. There was also a significant difference in the constant error between the high- and low-risk groups between the imagined and physical walking times for all three walkways. Older adults who may be at a higher risk of falling showed longer walking times during action execution but overestimated their performance (i.e., they believe they would be faster) during motor imagery. Therefore, the time difference between imagined and physical walking could, in part, be useful as a tool for assessing fall risk based on motor imagery.

scholarly journals Prognosis Evaluation of Universal Acute Coronary Syndrome: The Interplay between SYNTAX Score and ApoB/ApoA1

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaotong Wang ◽  
Zhongyu Wang ◽  
Bing Li(New Corresponding Author) ◽  
Ping Yang(Former Corresponding Author)
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Independent Predictor ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Syntax Score ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Prognosis Evaluation

Abstract Background：Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a group of clinical syndromes associated with substantial morbidity and mortality rate. Syntax and Syntax II score used to be a reference for surgical selection of coronary revascularization and prognosis evaluation in patients with 3-vessel or left main artery disease. In addition, apoB/apoA1 is an important predictor of ACS risk. This study aims to assess the prognosis value of different kinds of SYNTAX score together with apoB/apoA1 in universal ACS patients (Regardless of ACS type, lesion location and vessel numbers). Method：396 patients with ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention（PCI）and coronary stenting from 2013 to 2014 were chosen and recorded the major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) and quality of life during next 5 years. According to SYNTAX and SYNTAX II score, the patients were divided into low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk groups, and the clinical features, MACCE incidence and EQ-5D score at each time points were compared. And the predictive factors of MACCE incidence were analyzed. Results：①Compared with SYNTAX low-risk group, MACCE incidence in 1 year significantly increased in medium-high risk group（p=0.011）. Compared with SYNTAX II low-risk group, MACCE incidence in 5 years significantly increased in medium and high-risk group（p=0.032）.② Compared with SYNTAX II low-risk group，cardiovascular mortality in 3 and 5 years significantly elevated in high-risk group（p=0.001，p＜0.001 respectively）. ③ Compared with SYNTAX II low and medium-risk group, EQ-5D score in 5 years significantly decreased in high-risk group（p=0.001）. ④ ApoB/ApoA1 was more likely to be classified as high risk in SYNTAX/SYNTAX II medium and high-risk group（p=0.023，p=0.044 respectively）. ⑤Logistic regression analysis showed that apoB/apoA1 was an independent predictor of MACCE events in hospital and 5 years（p=0.038，p=0.016 respectively），SYNTAX score was an independent predictor of MACCE events in 1 year（medium-risk group：p=0.02；high-risk group：p=0.015）SYNTAX II score was an independent predictor of MACCE events in 5 yeasrs(p=0.003). Conclusions：①SYNTAX score has a high predictive value for short-term prognosis while SYNTAX II score is more predictive of long-term prognosis. ② SYNTAX II score is superior to SYNTAX score in predicting cardiovascular death. ③ The combination of apoB/apoA1 high-risk and SYNTAX II medium and high-risk group is the focus of clinical treatment and long-term follow-up observation.

The Relationship Between CT Signs of Computed Tomography and Risk Classification of Gastric Stromal Tumors

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 642-647
Author(s):  
Wang Chen ◽  
Rong Guo ◽  
WeiGao Sun ◽  
DingYou Lu
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Risk Classification ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Stromal Tumors ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Solid Part ◽  
The Relationship

Objective: The study aims to explore the role of computed tomography (CT) in clinical diagnosis, thus having a preliminary understanding of the relationship between CT signs and the risk of gastric stromal tumors (GSTs). Methods: In this study, 213 patients with GST with complete preoperative CT and postoperative pathological results in Yancheng No. 1 People's Hospital from January 2016 to August 2019 are selected as research objects. The patient's basic information is collected. CT machine (Toshiba 320 row CT and Siemens dualsource CT (Somatom Definition Flash)) is used to examine all patients. The obtained image data are evaluated. Patients are divided into low-risk group, medium risk group and high-risk group according to the risk classification standard of GST. The data collected are analyzed statistically. Results: After risk classification of all patients, 87 patients in low-risk group, 74 in medium-risk group and 52 in high-risk group are found. After further analysis of the risk classification, it is found that there is no significant difference in GST risk classification between the tumor sites (P > 0.05). In the GST risk classification, the smaller the tumor, the more the low-risk group, the larger the tumor, the more the high-risk group, the difference is statistically significant (P < 0.05). In the observation of the relationship between tumor growth pattern and risk classification, it is found that the number of intraluminal growth is the most, while mixed growth is the least (P < 0.05). Further analysis of tumor density, solid part enhancement, distant metastasis and risk grade show that there are significant differences (P < 0.05). Conclusion: As an auxiliary diagnostic method in clinic, CT signs can be used to analyze the relationship with risk grade from tumor location, tumor size, tumor growth mode, tumor density, solid part enhancement degree and tumor distant metastasis, so as to have a more accurate understanding of patients' situation, and provide experimental basis for the later application of CT signs in tumor and auxiliary diagnosis.

scholarly journals A New Marker to Determine Prognosis of Acute Pancreatitis: PLR and NLR Combination

2018 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Kaplan ◽  
Ihsan Ates ◽  
Erkin Oztas ◽  
Mahmut Yuksel ◽  
Muhammed Yener Akpinar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acute Pancreatitis ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Lymphocyte Ratio ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Prognostic Importance

SummaryBackground: We aimed to investigate the prognostic importance of platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and neutro - phil-lymphocyte ratio(NLR) combination for patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis and its relationship with mortality. Methods: This retrospective study was included 142 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis. Ranson, Atlanta and BISAP 0h, 24h and 48h scores of the patients were calculated by examining their patient files. The patients were divided into three groups as low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk patients according to their PLR and NLR levels. Results: The number of patients with acute pancreatitis complications such as necrotizing pancreatitis, acute renal failure, sepsis and cholangitis was significantly higher in the high-risk group compared to other groups. Mortality rate was found to be 90% in the high-risk group, 16% in the medium-risk group, and 1.9% in the low-risk group. The number of patients with a Ranson score of 5 and 6, a severe Atlanta score, a BISAP 0h score of 3 and 4, a BISAP 24h and 48h score of 4 and 5 was higher in the high-risk group compared to other groups. PLR-NLR combination, Atlanta and Ranson scores, and C-reactive protein level were determined to be independent risk factors predicting mortality in stepwise regression model. PLR-NLR combination had the highest area under curve value in terms of predicting acute claspancreatitis prognosis and had a similar diagnostic discrimination with other scoring systems. Conclusion: In our study it was found that PLR-NLR combination had a similar prognostic importance with other scoring systems used to determine acute pancreatitis prognosis.

MO280VALIDATION OF AN ANCA ASSOCIATED VASCULITIS RENAL RISK SCORE IN THE SOUTH WEST OF ENGLAND

2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ailish Nimmo ◽  
Arvind Singh ◽  
Jena Hopkins ◽  
Anna Rixon ◽  
Spoorthy Sreerama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Kidney Biopsy ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Renal Survival ◽  
Anca Associated Vasculitis ◽  
Medium Risk

Abstract Background and Aims Determining the renal prognosis for patients with ANCA associated vasculitis (AAV) is important in guiding treatment decisions, including balancing the risks and benefits of aggressive immunosuppression, and informing patients of their likely trajectory. We examined the performance of the clinicopathologic risk stratification tool developed by Brix et al. 1 in determining renal outcomes in a cohort of AAV patients in the South West of England. Method A retrospective review of case notes of patients diagnosed with AAV between 2010 and 2020 from two renal units (Bristol and Plymouth) was performed. Patients were followed up until 1st August 2020. Demographic details, kidney function at presentation and initial treatment regime were collected alongside kidney biopsy data. The renal risk score divides patients into three groups determined as being at low, medium and high risk of adverse renal outcomes based on (1) the percentage of normal glomeruli on kidney biopsy, (2) the percentage of tubular atrophy and interstitial fibrosis on kidney biopsy and (3) eGFR at diagnosis. The outcome of interest was the development of end stage kidney disease (ESKD), defined as a dialysis requirement &gt;3months or kidney transplantation. Patients were censored for death. Results In total 93 individuals were diagnosed with AAV over the study period; 51% were female and the median age at diagnosis was 69 years [IQR 60-78]. ANCA subclass was MPO positive in 73% of cases, PR3 positive in 19% and ANCA negative in 8%. At presentation, 42% had an eGFR below 15ml/min/1.73m2. With respect to risk scores, 17% of individuals were low risk (n=16), 52% were medium risk (n=48) and 31% were high risk (n=29). Median follow up was 3.2 years [IQR 1.3-5.9], over which time 18% of patients developed ESKD (1 in the low risk group, 7 in the medium risk group and 9 in the high risk group). A further 20% of patients died. A Kaplan-Meier survival curve (Figure 1) demonstrated worsening renal survival with rising risk group (Log-rank test, p=0.05). At 1 year, 74 patients (80%) were alive and in these individuals renal survival was 100% in the low risk group, 91% in medium risk group and 75% in the high risk group. Conclusion Overall, 18% of patients developed ESKD over a median follow up of 3.2 years. The renal risk score developed by Brix et al. helps prognosticate renal survival and may assist in shared decision making with patients regarding treatment options. The score demonstrates the importance of the degree of chronicity in determining renal survival. Further work in larger cohorts to compare the performance of the risk score in different subgroups of patients with AAV would be informative.

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