scholarly journals A clinical scoring system for predicting tumor recurrence after percutaneous radiofrequency ablation for 3 cm or less hepatocellular carcinoma

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Zhu He ◽  
Kun He ◽  
Rui Qin Huang ◽  
Li Wen Liu ◽  
Shao Wei Ye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Tumor Recurrence ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Clinical Scoring

AbstractPreoperative prediction of tumor recurrence after radiofrequency ablation (RFA) in patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is helpful for clinical decision-making before treatment. A total of 162 patients with HCC of 3 cm or less who were completely ablated by percutaneous RFA were divided into a derivation cohort (n = 108) and a validation cohort (n = 54). Based on X-Tiles software, Kaplan–Meier curve analysis and COX multivariate analysis to obtain valuable predictive indicators, a clinical scoring system for predicting tumor recurrence was established. In the verall cohort, derivation cohort and validation cohort, we found circulating tumor cells (CTC) > 2/3.2 mL, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) > 20 ng/mL, and des-γ-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) > 40 mAU/mL, maximum tumor diameter > 20 mm, and the number of multiple tumors (≥ 2) are independent risk factors affecting tumor recurrence. Each independent risk factor was assigned a score of 1 to construct a predictive clinical scoring system, and X-Tiles software was used to divide the clinical score into a low-risk group (0 score–1 score), a medium-risk group (2 scores–3 scores), and a high-risk group (4 scores–5 scores). The cumulative tumor recurrence rates of patients in the low-risk group, middle-risk group, and high-risk group in 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years were 19.4%/27.5%/30.9%, 37.0%/63.2%/79.9% and 68.2%/100%/100%, respectively (Low-risk group vs medium-risk group: P < 0.001; medium-risk group vs high-risk group: P < 0.001). This clinical scoring system can predict the prognosis of patients with HCC of 3 cm or smaller undergoing percutaneous RFA, which has certain application value for making preoperative clinical decisions.

scholarly journals A radiomics nomogram for prediction of overall survival  in hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinqin Liu ◽  
Jing Li ◽  
Fei Liu ◽  
Weilin Yang ◽  
Jingjing Ding ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hepatocellular Carcinoma ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Clinicopathological Factors ◽  
Training Cohort ◽  
Texture Parameters ◽  
Radiomics Signature

Abstract Background Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is associated with dismal prognosis, and prediction of the prognosis of HCC can assist the therapeutic decisions. More and more studies showed that the texture parameters of images can reflect the heterogeneity of the tumor, and may have the potential to predict the prognosis of patients with HCC after surgical resection. The aim of the study was to investigate the prognostic value of computed tomography (CT) texture parameters for patients with HCC after hepatectomy, and try to develop a radiomics nomograms by combining clinicopathological factors with radiomics signature.Methods 544 eligible patients were enrolled in the retrospective study and randomly divided into training cohort (n=381) and validation cohort (n=163). The regions of interest (ROIs) of tumor is delineated, then the corresponding texture parameters are extracted. The texture parameters were selected by using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox model in training cohort, and the radiomics score (Rad-score) was generated. According to the cut-off value of the Rad-score calculated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the patients were divided into high-risk group and low-risk group. The prognosis of the two groups was compared and validated in the validation cohort. Univariate and multivariable analyses by COX proportional hazard regression model were used to select the prognostic factors of overall survival (OS). The radiomics nomogram for OS were established based on the radiomics signature and clinicopathological factors. The Concordance index (C-index), calibration plot and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance of the radiomics nomogram.Result 7 texture parameters associated with OS were selected in the training, and the radiomics signature was formulated based on the texture parameters. The patients were divided into high-risk group and low-risk group by the cut-off values of the Rad-score of OS. The 1-, 3- and 5-year OS rate was 71.0%, 45.5% and 35.5% in the high-risk group, respectively, and 91.7%, 82.1% and 78.7%, in the low-risk group, respectively, with significant difference (P <0.001). COX regression model found that Rad-score was an independent prognostic factor of OS. In addition, the radiomics nomogram was developed based on five variables: α‐fetoprotein (AFP), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), largest tumor size, microvascular invasion (MVI) and Rad-score. The nomograms displayed good accuracy in predicting OS (C-index=0.747) in the training cohort and was confirmed in the validation cohort (C-index=0.777). The calibration plots also showed an excellent agreement between the actual and predicted survival probabilities. The DAC indicated that the radiomics nomogram showed better clinical usefulness than the clinicopathologic nomogram.Conclusion The radiomics signature is potential biomarkers of the prognosis of HCC after hepatectomy. Radiomics nomogram that integrated radiomics signature can provide more accurate estimate of OS for patients with HCC after hepatectomy.

scholarly journals Validation of an Immune-related Gene Pair Index as a Prognostic Marker of Early-Stage Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zihao Wang ◽  
Xuan Xiang ◽  
Xiaoshan Wei ◽  
Linlin Ye ◽  
Yiran Niu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Related Gene ◽  
Immune Related Gene

Abstract Background. Lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) is one of the subtypes of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and accounts for approximately 20 to 30% of all lung cancers.Methods. In this study, we developed an immune-related gene pair index (IRGPI) for early-stage LUSC from 3 public LUSC data sets, including The Cancer Genome Atlas LUSC cohort and Gene Expression Omnibus data sets, and explored whether IRGPI could act as a prognostic marker to identify patients with early-stage LUSC at high risk.Results. IRGPI was constructed by 68 gene pairs consisting of 123 unique immune-related genes from TCGA LUSC cohort. In the derivation cohort, the hazard of death among high-risk group was 10.51 times that of the low-risk group (HR, 10.51; 95%CI, 6.96-15.86; p<0.001). The hazard of death among the high-risk group was 2.26 times that of the low-risk group (HR, 2.26; 95%CI, 1.2-4.25; p=0.009) in the GSE37745 validation cohort and was 3.2 times that of low-risk group (HR, 3.2; 95%CI, 0.98-10.4; p=0.042) in the GSE41271 validation cohort. The infiltrations of CD8+ T cells and T follicular helper cells were lower in the high-risk group, as compared with the low-risk group in the TCGA cohort (6.94% vs 9.63%, p=0.004; 2.15% vs 3%, p=0.002, respectively). The infiltrations of neutrophils, activated mast cells and monocytes were higher in the high-risk group, as compared with the low-risk group in the TCGA cohort (1.63% vs 0.72%, p=0.001; 1.64% vs 1.02%, p=0.007; 0.57% vs 0.35%, p=0.041, respectively).Conclusions. IRGPI is a significant prognostic biomarker for predicting overall survival in early-stage LUSC patients.

Patterns of local extension and nodal involvement from 1300 nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients: An imaging-based predictor of distant metastases.

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e17516-e17516
Author(s):  
Dan Fan ◽  
Ying Wang ◽  
Yifu Tian ◽  
Nancy Y. Lee ◽  
Liangfang Shen
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma ◽  
Tumor Invasion ◽  
Mixed Type ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Distant Metastases ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Medium Risk

e17516 Background: Distant metastasis is a main determinant of prognosis in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma(NPC). We explored the patterns of disease spread in NPC patients and identified the pattern correlates with distant metastases. Methods: The imaging documents of 1300 consecutive newly diagnosed nasopharyngeal carcinoma between 2012 and 2016 were reviewed. According to the incidence rates of tumor invasion, the anatomic sites were classified into high-risk group (≥50%), medium-risk group (≥10%~ < 50%) and low-risk group ( < 10%). The location of lymph nodes was determined by 2013 updated guidelines for neck node levels. Additionally, we developed a novel classification based on tumor spreading patterns, as shown in Table. Moreover, we validated the prognostic accuracy of the classification in a validation cohort from a different institution, 241 non-metastatic NPC patients were retrospectively enrolled. Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to analyze all time-to-event data. Results: The incidence rates of tumor invasion were 0.2% ~91.2%, 95.2% cases across the midline. If anatomic sites in high-risk group or median-risk group were involved, the incidence rates in adjacent medium-risk sites or low-risk group were increased. On the contrary, the incidence rates were decreased when the adjacent high-risk sites or median-risk group were not involved. 85.9% cases had involved lymph nodes. Only 3.9% had skip metastases. The incidence rates of nodal involvement were increased when adjacent upper nodal level was involved. In validation cohort, distant metastases were present in 32/241 NPC patients (13.3%) and 3-year distant metastasis-free survival(DMFS) in local, superior, inferior, and mixed type were 95.0%, 91.3%, 89.0%, and 78.7%, respectively. Cumulative survival curves for former three patterns were relatively similar and were clearly separated from mixed type. DMFS was significantly lower for patients with mixed type pattern than for those with other patterns(P = 0.018). Conclusions: Local disease in NPC patients spreads stepwise from proximal sites to more distal sites. The frequency of metastases in the jugular lymph node chains decreased in the cranio-caudal direction. Based on the patterns of tumor extension, an imaging-based predictor of distant metastases was developed and may be used as a prognostic marker for selecting patients to further systemic treatments. [Table: see text]

scholarly journals Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anand Veeravagu ◽  
Amy Li ◽  
Christian Swinney ◽  
Lu Tian ◽  
Adrienne Moraff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Spine Surgery ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Acs Nsqip ◽  
Medium Risk

OBJECTIVEThe ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort.METHODSThe spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery.RESULTSThe authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60–0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60–0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48–0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently produced complication predictions that underestimated complication occurrence: 3.4% in the low-risk group (observed 12.6%), 5.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 34.5%), and 12.5% in the high-risk group (observed 38.8%). The RAT was more accurate than the ACS NSQIP calculator (p = 0.0018).CONCLUSIONSWhile the RAT and ACS NSQIP calculator were both able to identify patients more likely to experience complications following spine surgery, both have substantial room for improvement. Risk stratification is feasible in spine surgery procedures; currently used measures have low accuracy.

Impact of Stratification of Comorbidities on Nutrition Indices and Survival in Patients on Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis

2009 ◽  
Vol 29 (2_suppl) ◽  
pp. 153-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narayan Prasad ◽  
Amit Gupta ◽  
Archana Sinha ◽  
Anurag Singh ◽  
Raj Kumar Sharma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Comorbid Illness ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Risk Patients

Background Case-mix comorbidities and malnutrition influence outcome in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients. In the present study, we analyzed the influence of stratified comorbidities on nutrition indices and survival in CAPD patients. Patients and Methods We categorized 373 CAPD patients (197 with and 176 without diabetes) into three risk groups: low—age under 70 years and no comorbid illness; medium—age 70 – 80 years, or any age with 1 comorbid illness, or age under 70 years with diabetes; high—age over 80 years, or any age with 2 comorbid illnesses. We then compared nutrition indices and malnutrition by subjective global assessment (SGA) between the three groups. Survival was compared using Kaplan–Meier survival analysis. Results Mean daily calorie and protein intakes in the low-risk group (21 ± 6.7 Kcal/kg, 0.85 ± 0.28 g/kg) were significantly higher than in the medium- (17.6 ± 5.2 Kcal/kg, 0.79 ± 0.25 g/kg) and high-risk (17.5 ± 6.1 Kcal/kg, 0.78 ± 0.26 g/kg) groups ( p = 0.001 and p = 0.04 respectively). Relative risk (RR) of malnutrition was less in the low-risk group (103/147, 70.06%) than in the medium-risk group [135/162, 83.3%; RR: 2.0; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1 to 3.4; p = 0.01] or the high-risk group (54/64, 84.4%; RR: 2.3; 95% CI: 2.1 to 4.9; p = 0.03). Mean survivals of patients in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were 51 patient–months (95% CI: 45.6 to 56.4 patient–months), 43.3 patient–months (95% CI: 37.8 to 48.7 patient–months), and 29.7 patient–months (95% CI: 23 to 36.4 patient–months) respectively (log-rank: 35.9 patient–months; p = 0.001). The 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year patient survivals in the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups were 96%, 87%, 79%, 65%, and 56%; 89%, 67%, 54%, 43%, and 34%; and 76%, 48%, 31%, 30%, and 30% respectively. Conclusions Intake of calories and protein was significantly lower in the medium-risk and high-risk groups than in the low-risk group. Survival was significantly better in low-risk patients than in medium- and high-risk patients.

Cognitively Impaired Older Adults: Risk Profiles for Institutionalization

2003 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 351-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurel A. Strain ◽  
Audrey A. Blandford ◽  
Lori A. Mitchell ◽  
Pamela G. Hawranik
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Cognitive Impairment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Disruptive Behaviors ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Cognitively Impaired ◽  
Risk Profiles ◽  
Medium Risk

Background: This study focused on the identification of risk profiles for institutionalization among older adults diagnosed with cognitive impairment-not dementia or dementia in 1991/92 and subsequent institutionalization in the following 5-year period. Methods: Data were from a sample of 123 individuals aged 65+ and their unpaid caregivers in Manitoba, Canada. Cluster analysis was conducted using baseline characteristics of age, cognition, disruptive behaviors, ADLs/IADLs, use of formal in-home services, and level of caregiver burden. Results: Three distinct groups emerged (high-risk [n = 12], medium risk [n = 40], and low risk [n = 71]). The high-risk group had the poorest cognitive scores, were the most likely to exhibit disruptive behaviors, were the most likely to need assistance with ADLs and IADLs, and had the highest level of burden among their caregivers. Follow-up of the groups validated the risk profiles; 75% of the high-risk group were institutionalized within the next 5 years, compared to 45% of the medium-risk group and 21% of the low-risk group. Discussion: The risk profiles highlight the diversity among individuals with cognitive impairment and the opportunity for differential targeting of services for the distinct needs of each group.

scholarly journals Circulating Plasma Cells as a Biomarker to Predict Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Prognosis: Developing Nomogram Prognostic Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qianwen Cheng ◽  
Li Cai ◽  
Yuyang Zhang ◽  
Lei Chen ◽  
Yu Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Myeloma ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Plasma Cells ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Training Cohort ◽  
Entire Cohort

Background: To investigate the prognostic value of circulating plasma cells (CPC) and establish novel nomograms to predict individual progression-free survival (PFS) as well as overall survival (OS) of patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM).Methods: One hundred ninetyone NDMM patients in Wuhan Union Hospital from 2017.10 to 2020.8 were included in the study. The entire cohort was randomly divided into a training (n = 130) and a validation cohort (n = 61). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on the training cohort to establish nomograms for the prediction of survival outcomes, and the nomograms were validated by calibration curves.Results: When the cut-off value was 0.038%, CPC could well distinguish patients with higher tumor burden and lower response rates (P &lt; 0.05), and could be used as an independent predictor of PFS and OS. Nomograms predicting PFS and OS were developed according to CPC, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and creatinine. The C-index and the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) of the nomograms showed excellent individually predictive effects in training cohort, validation cohort or entire cohort. Patients with total points of the nomograms ≤ 60.7 for PFS and 75.8 for OS could be defined as low-risk group and the remaining as high-risk group. The 2-year PFS and OS rates of patients in low-risk group was significantly higher than those in high-risk group (p &lt; 0.001).Conclusions: CPC is an independent prognostic factor for NDMM patients. The proposed nomograms could provide individualized PFS and OS prediction and risk stratification.

scholarly journals Development and Validation of a Lncrnas-Based Nomogram for Survival Prediction in Neuroblastoma Patients

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Lv ◽  
ShuGuang Jin ◽  
Bo Xiang
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Enrichment Analysis ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Gene Set Enrichment Analysis ◽  
Gene Set Enrichment

Abstract BackgroundTreatment of neuroblastoma is evolving toward precision medicine. LncRNAs can be used as prognostic biomarkers in many types of cancer.MethodsBased on the RNA-seq data from GSE49710, we built a lncRNAs-based risk score using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operation (LASSO) regression. Cox regression, receiver operating characteristic curves were used to evaluate the association of the LASSO risk score with overall survival. Nomograms were created and then validated in an external cohort from TARGET database. Gene set enrichment analysis was performed to identify the significantly changed biological pathways. ResultsThe 16-lncRNAs-based LASSO risk score was used to separate patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. In GSE49710 cohort, the high-risk group exhibited a poorer OS than those in the low-risk group (P<0.001). Moreover, multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that LASSO risk score was an independent risk factor (HR=6.201;95%CI:2.536-15.16). The similar prognostic powers of the 16-lncRNAs were also achieved in the external cohort and in stratified analysis. In addition, a nomogram was established and worked well both in the internal validation cohort (C-index=0.831) and external validation cohort (C-index=0.773). The calibration plot indicated the good clinical utility of the nomogram. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) indicated that high-risk group was related with cancer recurrence, metastasis and inflammatory associated pathways.ConclusionThe lncRNA-based LASSO risk score is a promising and potential prognostic tool in predicting the survival of patients with neuroblastoma. The nomogram combined the lncRNAs and clinical parameters allows for accurate risk assessment in guiding clinical management.

scholarly journals Prognosis Evaluation of Universal Acute Coronary Syndrome: The Interplay between SYNTAX Score and ApoB/ApoA1

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaotong Wang ◽  
Zhongyu Wang ◽  
Bing Li ◽  
Ping Yang
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Independent Predictor ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Syntax Score ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Prognosis Evaluation

Abstract Background：Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a group of clinical syndromes associated with substantial morbidity and mortality rate. Syntax and Syntax II score used to be a reference for surgical selection of coronary revascularization and prognosis evaluation in patients with 3-vessel or left main artery disease. In addition, apoB/apoA1 is an important predictor of ACS risk. This study aims to assess the prognosis value of different kinds of SYNTAX score together with apoB/apoA1 in universal ACS patients (Regardless of ACS type, lesion location and vessel numbers). Method：396 patients with ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention（PCI）and coronary stenting from 2013 to 2014 were chosen and recorded the major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) and quality of life during the next 5 years. According to SYNTAX and SYNTAX II score, the patients were divided into low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk groups, and the clinical features, MACCE incidence and EQ-5D score at each time points were compared. And the predictive factors of MACCE incidence were analyzed. Results：①Compared with SYNTAX low-risk group, MACCE incidence in 1 year significantly increased in medium/high risk group（p=0.011）. Compared with SYNTAX II low-risk group, MACCE incidence in 5 years significantly increased in medium and high-risk group（p=0.032）.② Compared with SYNTAX II low-risk group，cardiovascular mortality in 3 and 5 years significantly elevated in high-risk group（p=0.001，p＜0.001 respectively）. ③ Compared with SYNTAX II low and medium-risk group, EQ-5D score in 5 years significantly decreased in high-risk group（p=0.019, p=0.023 respectively）. ④ ApoB/ApoA1 was more likely to be classified as high risk in SYNTAX/SYNTAX II medium and high-risk group（p=0.023，p=0.044 respectively）. ⑤Logistic regression analysis showed that apoB/apoA1 was an independent predictor of MACCE events in hospital and 5 years（p=0.038，p=0.016 respectively），SYNTAX score was an independent predictor of MACCE events in 1 year（medium-risk group：p=0.02；high-risk group：p=0.015）SYNTAX II score was an independent predictor of MACCE events in 5 yeasrs(p=0.003). Conclusions：①SYNTAX score has a high predictive value for short-term prognosis while SYNTAX II score is more predictive of long-term prognosis. ② SYNTAX II score is superior to SYNTAX score in predicting cardiovascular death. ③ The combination of apoB/apoA1 high-risk and SYNTAX II medium and high-risk group is the focus of clinical treatment and long-term follow-up observation.

scholarly journals Prognosis Evaluation of Universal Acute Coronary Syndrome: The Interplay between SYNTAX Score and ApoB/ApoA1

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaotong Wang ◽  
Zhongyu Wang ◽  
Bing Li(New Corresponding Author) ◽  
Ping Yang(Former Corresponding Author)
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Independent Predictor ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Syntax Score ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Prognosis Evaluation

Abstract Background：Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a group of clinical syndromes associated with substantial morbidity and mortality rate. Syntax and Syntax II score used to be a reference for surgical selection of coronary revascularization and prognosis evaluation in patients with 3-vessel or left main artery disease. In addition, apoB/apoA1 is an important predictor of ACS risk. This study aims to assess the prognosis value of different kinds of SYNTAX score together with apoB/apoA1 in universal ACS patients (Regardless of ACS type, lesion location and vessel numbers). Method：396 patients with ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention（PCI）and coronary stenting from 2013 to 2014 were chosen and recorded the major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) and quality of life during next 5 years. According to SYNTAX and SYNTAX II score, the patients were divided into low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk groups, and the clinical features, MACCE incidence and EQ-5D score at each time points were compared. And the predictive factors of MACCE incidence were analyzed. Results：①Compared with SYNTAX low-risk group, MACCE incidence in 1 year significantly increased in medium-high risk group（p=0.011）. Compared with SYNTAX II low-risk group, MACCE incidence in 5 years significantly increased in medium and high-risk group（p=0.032）.② Compared with SYNTAX II low-risk group，cardiovascular mortality in 3 and 5 years significantly elevated in high-risk group（p=0.001，p＜0.001 respectively）. ③ Compared with SYNTAX II low and medium-risk group, EQ-5D score in 5 years significantly decreased in high-risk group（p=0.001）. ④ ApoB/ApoA1 was more likely to be classified as high risk in SYNTAX/SYNTAX II medium and high-risk group（p=0.023，p=0.044 respectively）. ⑤Logistic regression analysis showed that apoB/apoA1 was an independent predictor of MACCE events in hospital and 5 years（p=0.038，p=0.016 respectively），SYNTAX score was an independent predictor of MACCE events in 1 year（medium-risk group：p=0.02；high-risk group：p=0.015）SYNTAX II score was an independent predictor of MACCE events in 5 yeasrs(p=0.003). Conclusions：①SYNTAX score has a high predictive value for short-term prognosis while SYNTAX II score is more predictive of long-term prognosis. ② SYNTAX II score is superior to SYNTAX score in predicting cardiovascular death. ③ The combination of apoB/apoA1 high-risk and SYNTAX II medium and high-risk group is the focus of clinical treatment and long-term follow-up observation.

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