Climate change and the Ethiopian economy: a CGE analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zenebe Gebreegziabher ◽  
Jesper Stage ◽  
Alemu Mekonnen ◽  
Atlaw Alemu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Average Income ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Autonomous Adaptation ◽  
Ricardian Model ◽  
Adaptation Policies ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractThe paper analyzes the economic impacts of climate change-induced fluctuations on the performance of Ethiopia's agriculture, using a countrywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We model the impacts on agriculture using a Ricardian model, where current agricultural production is modelled as a function of temperature and precipitation, among other things, and where future agriculture is assumed to follow the same climate function. The effect of overall climate change is projected to be relatively benign until approximately 2030, but will become considerably worse thereafter. Our simulation results indicate that, over a 50-year period, the projected reduction in agricultural productivity may lead to reductions in average income of some 20 per cent compared with the outcome that would have prevailed in the absence of climate change. This indicates that adaptation policies – both government planned and those that ease autonomous adaptation by farmers – will be crucial for Ethiopia's future development.

ADAPTATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS: A STRUCTURAL RICARDIAN MODEL OF IRRIGATION AND FARM INCOME IN AFRICA

2011 ◽  
Vol 02 (02) ◽  
pp. 149-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
PRADEEP KURUKULASURIYA ◽  
NAMRATA KALA ◽  
ROBERT MENDELSOHN
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ricardian Model ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Impact Models ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Although there is now an extensive literature on the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture, no study has yet addressed the endogeneity of irrigation. This paper examines how climate affects the choice to irrigate and the conditional income earned by each farmer. The paper develops a selection model of irrigation choice and conditional income. Using data from farmers across eleven African countries, the paper demonstrates that the choice of irrigation is sensitive to both temperature and precipitation. Rainfed and irrigated farm income also both respond to climate but have different climate sensitivity. Impact models that fail to account for endogenous irrigation are biased.

MODELING LAND USE AND THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRAZIL

2017 ◽  
Vol 08 (01) ◽  
pp. 1750002 ◽  
Author(s):  
WESLEM RODRIGUES FARIA ◽  
EDUARDO AMARAL HADDAD
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Demand Curve ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Detailed Specification

This paper discusses the development of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with detailed specification for land use. The model considers two aspects of land use: land as a measure of production cost and land as a physical entity that can be used in a variety of ways. To analyze the economic effects of climate change, we integrated the CGE model and an econometric model. The results based on this model, which captures how land allocation responds to changes in temperature and precipitation, are introduced as elasticities in the CGE model to offset the demand curve for land among 13 different land uses in 27 regions of Brazil. The simulations are based on climate data from a benchmark period (1975–2005) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate projection scenarios for the periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099. The results predict negative changes in real gross domestic product ranging from [Formula: see text]0.0054% to [Formula: see text]0.0198%, depending on the scenario.

scholarly journals Poverty and climate change: introduction

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 217-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephane Hallegatte ◽  
Marianne Fay ◽  
Edward B. Barbier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
National Wealth ◽  
Economic Statistics ◽  
Climate Vulnerability ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractBecause their assets and income represent such a small share of national wealth, the impacts of climate change on poor people, even if dramatic, will be largely invisible in aggregate economic statistics such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Assessing and managing future impacts of climate change on poverty requires different metrics, and specific studies focusing on the vulnerability of poor people. This special issue provides a set of such studies, looking at the exposure and vulnerability of people living in poverty to shocks and stressors that are expected to increase in frequency or intensity due to climate change, such as floods, droughts, heat waves, and impacts on agricultural production and ecosystem services. This introduction summarizes their approach and findings, which support the idea that the link between poverty and climate vulnerability goes both ways: poverty is one major driver of people's vulnerability to climate-related shocks and stressors, and this vulnerability is keeping people in poverty. The paper concludes by identifying priorities for future research.

Sensitivity Analysis with Calibration of Natural Resource Variables under Climate Change

2017 ◽  
pp. 681-691
Author(s):  
Nilanjan Ghosh ◽  
Somnath Hazra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Natural Resource ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
The Other ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Human Economy ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

This chapter compares two quantitative frameworks, namely, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and Econometric models to study the impacts of climate change on human economy. However, as is inferred from this chapter, CGE framework is fraught with unrealistic assumptions, and fails to capture impacts of climate change and extreme events on the ecosystem services. On the other hand, econometric framework can be customised and is not based on the unrealistic assumptions like CGE. The various advantages and disadvantages of the two methods have been discussed critically in the process in this chapter in light of the avowed objective of understanding sustainability science.

scholarly journals Climate change and the Puget Sound: Building the legal framework for adaptation

Climate Law ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 299-344 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yee Huang ◽  
Robert L. Glicksman ◽  
Catherine O’Neill ◽  
William L. Andreen ◽  
Victor Flatt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Puget Sound ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Adaptation Policies ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change ◽  
Puget Sound Region

Regardless of the efforts governments may take to mitigate the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions and other human activities on climate change, the need for society to adapt to climate change is unavoidable. Adapting to the myriad impacts of climate change will require actions at all levels of government. This article focuses on the anticipated impacts of climate change on the Puget Sound region in the northwestern United States as an example of the range of problems climate change will present and of the solutions available to governments and others interested in avoiding or minimizing the adverse impacts of climate change. As a guide for policy-makers, the article offers general principles for formulating climate change adaptation policies, suggestions for changes in decision-making processes that make them more suitable for addressing the unpredictable impacts of climate change, and strategies for adapting to three specific categories of climate change effects: impacts on the hydrologic cycle, sea-level rise, and altered meteorological conditions. The strategies and recommendations analysed in the article can provide a model for climate change adaptation policies, both in the Puget Sound region and more broadly, that are both environmentally protective and socially equitable.

scholarly journals Applying a Delphi-Type Approach to Estimate the Adaptation Cost on Agriculture to Climate Change in Cyprus

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 536
Author(s):  
Marinos Markou ◽  
Anastasios Michailidis ◽  
Efstratios Loizou ◽  
Stefanos A. Nastis ◽  
Dimitra Lazaridou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Programming Period ◽  
Impact Estimate ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Agriculture is highly dependent on climate change, and Cyprus especially is experiencing its impacts on agricultural production to a greater extent, mainly due to its geographical location. The adaptation of farming to the effects of global climate change may lead to the maximization of agricultural production, which is an important and desirable improvement. The main aim of this paper is to rank and quantify the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector of Cyprus, through a multi-round Delphi survey seeking a consensus agreement in a group of experts. A multidisciplinary group of 20 experts stated their willingness-to-pay for various impacts of climate change. By applying this method, the individual impacts of climate change on crop production and water resources were brought into the modeling effort on equal footing with cost values. The final cost impact estimate represents the total estimated cost of climate change in the agricultural sector. According to the results, this cost reaches EUR 25.08 million annually for the agricultural sector, and EUR 366.48 million for the whole country. Therefore, it is expected that in the seven-year programming period 2014–2020 the total cost of climate change on agriculture ranges from EUR 176 to EUR 2565 million. The most significant impacts are due to the increasing level of CO2 in the atmosphere and the burden of biodiversity and ecosystems.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document