Economic and hydrological impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Eastern Nile River Basin

AbstractWe propose an ‘allocate-and-trade’ institution to manage the eastern Nile River Basin for Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt as the basin faces a new reality of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). We find that a social planner could increase the region's economic welfare by assigning water rights to the riparian states. An alternative intrabasin water rights arrangement and trade could achieve more than 95 per cent of the welfare created by the social planner. GERD will change both the economic benefits and hydrological positions of the riparian countries. Economic benefits from alternative water use would be sufficient to make riparian countries better off compared with the status quo. Furthermore, riparian countries could raise more than US$680 m annually for protecting and conserving the natural resources of the region.

Download Full-text

China and the Nile River Basin: The Changing Hydropolitical Status Quo

Insight on Africa ◽

10.1177/0975087817741043 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 73-97 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

M.K. Mahlakeng

Keyword(s):

Population Growth ◽

River Basin ◽

Status Quo ◽

Nile River ◽

Transboundary River Basins ◽

Excessive Strain ◽

Unequal Access ◽

Nile River Basin ◽

Environmental Scarcity ◽

The Impact

The Nile River Basin (NRB), the world’s longest river, faces a considerable challenge of population growth, degradation and depletion, and equitable water utilisation, which have become a threat to peace and environmental security in the region. Moreover, the hydropolitical landscape of the Nile has been dominated by Egypt. However, the NRB is experiencing a change in its hydropolitical status quo. China has emerged as a financier to upstream countries’ hydropower projects, thus changing the upstream–downstream hydropolitical status quo. Although the existing governing regimes were not beneficial to upstream countries, China’s role in the Nile hydropolitics is not providing an alternative and beneficial and/or win–win cooperative framework. As a result, the environmental and political landscape of the already fragile Nile region has become threatened, thus increasing the potential for conflict. The purpose of this article is to determine, through Homer-Dixon’s environmental scarcity theory, the impact and effects of environmental scarcity in contributing to a nascent conflict. This study conceptualised Homer-Dixon’s environmental scarcity theory as a theory that argues for the potential of conflict in transboundary river basins as a result of environmental scarcity. Environmental scarcity is triggered by a combination of population growth and excessive strain on dwindling renewable resources, exacerbated by unequal access to that resource.

Download Full-text

Optimal operation of a multipurpose multireservoir system in the Eastern Nile River Basin

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-14-1895-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 14 (10) ◽

pp. 1895-1908 ◽

Cited By ~ 39

Author(s):

Q. Goor ◽

C. Halleux ◽

Y. Mohamed ◽

A. Tilmant

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Economic Benefits ◽

Optimal Operation ◽

Nile River ◽

Hydropower Generation ◽

Blue Nile ◽

High Aswan Dam ◽

Basin Scale ◽

Aswan Dam ◽

Nile River Basin

Abstract. The upper Blue Nile River Basin in Ethiopia is a largely untapped resource despite its huge potential for hydropower generation and irrigated agriculture. Controversies exist as to whether the numerous infrastructural development projects that are on the drawing board in Ethiopia will generate positive or negative externalities downstream in Sudan and Egypt. This study attempts at (1) examining the (re-)operation of infrastructures, in particular the proposed reservoirs in Ethiopia and the High Aswan Dam and (2) assessing the economic benefits and costs associated with the storage infrastructures in Ethiopia and their spatial and temporal distribution. To achieve this, a basin-wide integrated hydro-economic model has been developed. The model integrates essential hydrologic, economic and institutional components of the river basin in order to explore both the hydrologic and economic consequences of various policy options and planned infrastructural projects. Unlike most of the deterministic economic-hydrologic models reported in the literature, a stochastic programming formulation has been adopted in order to: (i) understand the effect of the hydrologic uncertainty on management decisions, (ii) determine allocation policies that naturally hedge against the hydrological risk, and (iii) assess the relevant risk indicators. The study reveals that the development of four mega dams in the upper part of the Blue Nile Basin would change the drawdown refill cycle of the High Aswan Dam. Should the operation of the reservoirs be coordinated, they would enable an average annual saving of at least 2.5 billion m3 through reduced evaporation losses from the Lake Nasser. Moreover, the new reservoirs (Karadobi, Beko-Abo, Mandaya and Border) in Ethiopia would have significant positive impacts on hydropower generation and irrigation in Ethiopia and Sudan: at the basin scale, the annual energy generation is boosted by 38.5 TWh amongst which 14.2 TWh due to storage. Moreover, the regulation capacity of the above mentioned reservoirs would enable an increase of the Sudanese irrigated area by 5.5%.

Download Full-text

Optimal operation of a multipurpose multireservoir system in the Eastern Nile River Basin

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-7-4331-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 7 (4) ◽

pp. 4331-4369 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Q. Goor ◽

C. Halleux ◽

Y. Mohamed ◽

A. Tilmant

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Economic Benefits ◽

Optimal Operation ◽

Nile River ◽

Hydropower Generation ◽

Blue Nile ◽

High Aswan Dam ◽

Basin Scale ◽

Aswan Dam ◽

Nile River Basin

Abstract. The upper Blue Nile River Basin in Ethiopia is a largely untapped resource despite its huge potential for hydropower generation and irrigated agriculture. Controversies exist as to whether the numerous infrastructural development projects that are on the drawing board in Ethiopia will generate positive or negative externalities downstream in Sudan and Egypt. This study attempts at 1) examining the (re-)operation of infrastructures, in particular the proposed reservoirs in Ethiopia and the High Aswan Dam and 2) assessing the economic benefits and costs associated with the storage infrastructures in Ethiopia and their spatial and temporal distribution. To achieve this, a basin-wide integrated hydro-economic model has been developed. The model integrates essential hydrologic, economic and institutional components of the river basin in order to explore both the hydrologic and economic consequences of various policy options and planned infrastructural projects. Unlike most of the deterministic economic-hydrologic models reported in the literature, a stochastic programming formulation has been adopted in order to: i) understand the effect of the hydrologic uncertainty on management decisions, ii) determine allocation policies that naturally hedge against the hydrological risk, and iii) assess the relevant risk indicators. The study reveals that the development of four mega dams in the upper part of the Blue Nile Basin would change the drawdown refill cycle of the High Aswan Dam. Should the operation of the reservoirs be coordinated, they would enable an average annual saving of at least 2.5 billion m3 through reduced evaporation losses from the Lake Nasser. Moreover, the new reservoirs (Karadobi, Beko-Abo, Mandaya and Border) in Ethiopia would have significant positive impacts on hydropower generation and irrigation in Ethiopia and Sudan: at the basin scale, the annual energy generation is boosted by 38.5 TWh amongst which 14.2 TWh due to storage. Moreover, the regulation capacity of the above mentioned reservoirs would enable an increase of the Sudanese irrigated area by 5.5%.

Download Full-text