A NOTE ON OPTIMAL DEBT REDUCTION POLICIES

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (7) ◽  
pp. 1850-1860 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide la Torre ◽  
Simone Marsiglio
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Real World ◽  
Optimal Policy ◽  
Social Costs ◽  
Social Planner ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Social ◽  
Reduction Problem ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Over Time

We analyze the optimal debt reduction problem in an uncertainty context. The social planner has a finite horizon and seeks to minimize the social costs associated with debt repayment by taking into account not only the short-run costs of the policy, but also the long-run costs associated with the outstanding level of debt. We characterize the optimal policy and the dynamics of the debt-to-GDP ratio, showing that it will decrease over time if economic policy is effective enough. We characterize how the evolution of the debt-to-GDP ratio depends on the main parameters and we present a simple calibration based on Greek data to illustrate the implications of our analysis in real-world setups.

scholarly journals Dynamic Integrated Model for Assessing Fisheries: Discard Bans as an Implicit Value-Added Tax

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Maria Da Rocha ◽  
Javier García-Cutrín ◽  
Maria-Jose Gutiérrez ◽  
Raul Prellezo ◽  
Eduardo Sanchez
Keyword(s):  
Value Added ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Value Added Tax ◽  
Biological Variables ◽  
A Value ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Social ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIntegrated economic models have become popular for assessing climate change. In this paper we show how these methods can be used to assess the impact of a discard ban in a fishery. We state that a discard ban can be understood as a confiscatory tax equivalent to a value-added tax. Under this framework, we show that a discard ban improves the sustainability of the fishery in the short run and increases economic welfare in the long run. In particular, we show that consumption, capital and wages show an initial decrease just after the implementation of the discard ban then recover after some periods to reach their steady-sate values, which are 16–20% higher than the initial values, depending on the valuation of the landed discards. The discard ban also improves biological variables, increasing landings by 14% and reducing discards by 29% on the initial figures. These patterns highlight the two channels through which discard bans affect a fishery: the tax channel, which shows that the confiscation of landed discards reduces the incentive to invest in the fishery; and the productivity channel, which increases the abundance of the stock. Thus, during the first few years after the implementation of a discard ban, the negative effect from the tax channel dominates the positive effect from the productivity channel, because the stock needs time to recover. Once stock abundance improves, the productivity channel dominates the tax channel and the economic variables rise above their initial levels. Our results also show that a landed discards valorisation policy is optimal from the social welfare point of view provided that incentives to increase discards are not created.

Long-Run Effects in Dynamic Systems: New Tools for Cross-Lagged Panel Models

2021 ◽  
pp. 109442812199322
Author(s):  
Ali Shamsollahi ◽  
Michael J. Zyphur ◽  
Ozlem Ozkok
Keyword(s):  
Recent Work ◽  
Dynamic Systems ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Simulated Dataset ◽  
Impulse Responses ◽  
Panel Models ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
Over Time

Cross-lagged panel models (CLPMs) are common, but their applications often focus on “short-run” effects among temporally proximal observations. This addresses questions about how dynamic systems may immediately respond to interventions, but fails to show how systems evolve over longer timeframes. We explore three types of “long-run” effects in dynamic systems that extend recent work on “impulse responses,” which reflect potential long-run effects of one-time interventions. Going beyond these, we first treat evaluations of system (in)stability by testing for “permanent effects,” which are important because in unstable systems even a one-time intervention may have enduring effects. Second, we explore classic econometric long-run effects that show how dynamic systems may respond to interventions that are sustained over time. Third, we treat “accumulated responses” to model how systems may respond to repeated interventions over time. We illustrate tests of each long-run effect in a simulated dataset and we provide all materials online including user-friendly R code that automates estimating, testing, reporting, and plotting all effects (see https://doi.org/10.26188/13506861 ). We conclude by emphasizing the value of aligning specific longitudinal hypotheses with quantitative methods.

scholarly journals Cross-Correlations in Meat Prices in Brazil: A Non-Linear Approach Using Different Time Scales

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 133
Author(s):  
Derick Quintino ◽  
José Telo da Gama ◽  
Paulo Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Recent Period ◽  
Linear Approach ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Cross Correlations ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Different Time Scales

Brazil is one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of cattle, chicken and swine. Therefore, co-movements of Brazilian meat prices are important for both domestic and foreign stakeholders. We propose to analyse the cross-correlation between meat prices in Brazil, namely, cattle, swine and chicken, including also in the analysis information from some commodities, namely maize, soya beans, oil, and the Brazilian exchange rate. Our sample covers the recent period which coincided with extensive macroeconomic and institutional changes in Brazil, from 2011 to 2020, and is divided in two periods: (i) presidential pre-impeachment (P1), occurring in August 2016, and; (ii) post-impeachment (P2). Our results indicate that in P1, only the prices of swine and chicken showed a positive and strong correlation over time, and that cattle showed some positive correlation with chicken only in the short run. In P2, there was also a positive and consistent correlation between swine and chicken, and only a positive association with swine and cattle in the long run. For more spaced time scales (days), the changes in the degree of correlation were significant only in the long run for swine and cattle.

scholarly journals Social capital, economic growth and well-being

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Sarracino
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Capital ◽  
Social Comparisons ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Subjective Well Being ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time

In the long run economic growth does not improve people's well-being. Traditional theories – adaptation and social comparisons – explain this evidence, but they don't explain what shapes the trend of subjective well-being and its differences across countries. Recent research identified in social capital a plausible candidate to explain the trends of well-being. This dissertation adopts various econometric techniques to explore the relationship over time among social capital, economic growth and subjective well-being. The main conclusion is that social capital is a good predictor of the trend of subjective well-being, both within and across countries. Hence, policies for well-being should aim at preserving and enhancing social capital for the quality of the social environment matters.

scholarly journals Economic Policy Uncertainty and Financial Innovation: Is There Any Affiliation?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeng Jia ◽  
Besnik Hajdari ◽  
Rimsha Khalid ◽  
Jianguo Wei ◽  
Md Qamruzzaman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asymmetry Effects

The study's motivation is to gauge the nexus between economic policy uncertainty and financial innovation for the period 2004M1 to 2018M12 in BRIC nations. For establishing a long-run cointegration study applied Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and asymmetry effects of economic policy uncertainty investigated following nonlinear framework known as NARDL. Furthermore, directional causality is established by performing a non-granger causality test. Cointegration test results of Fpss, Wpss, and tBDM confirmed the long-run association between EPU and financial innovation. On the other hand, the Wald test results proved asymmetry effects furring from EPU to financial innovation both in the long-run and short-run. Referring to asymmetry effects that positive and negative shocks in financial innovation, the study revealed that negative linkage between shocks in EPU and financial innovation in the long-run but short-run effects are insignificant. Furthermore, financial innovation measured by R&D investment exhibits positive linked with shocks in EPU, implying that uncertainty induces innovation in the economy. Refers to directional causality estimation, the study revealed evidence supporting the feedback hypothesis between EPU and financial innovation in all sample countries.

scholarly journals Stabilization Policies and Technological Shocks: Towards a Sustainable Economic Growth Path

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anelí Bongers ◽  
Carmen Díaz-Roldán
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Stabilization Policies ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

The purpose of this paper is to explore the extent to which traditional economic policies can be oriented by sound practices. It is becoming widely accepted that sustainable economic growth (and not only economic growth) is the final target of economic policies, but some economic policies are applied just looking to the short-run without taking in account the long-run perspective. Our aim is to show how a sustainable economic policy-making would be possible, making compatible the stabilization of the economy in the short-run with a sustainable economic growth in the long-run. We confront the design of economic policies with the 17 goals of the 2030 Agenda. We argue that all sustainable development goals can be attained by the design and implementation of sustainable economic policies. Finally, to illustrate this point, we will conduct a simulation exercise to show under which combinations of demand policies technological shocks would promote a path of sustainable growth. Our results will provide a reference framework for a sustainable economic policy-making.

scholarly journals Unions and the rights of migrants in the long run

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 557-570
Author(s):  
Frida Boräng ◽  
Sara Kalm ◽  
Johannes Lindvall
Keyword(s):  
Trade Unions ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Union Density ◽  
Economic Rights ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Social ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Global North ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Social And Economic Rights

We use historical data on union density and new historical data on policies toward migrants to study the long-run relationship between the strength of trade unions and the social and economic rights of migrants in the Global North. In countries with strong trade unions, there was, for a long time, a widening distance between the rights of migrants and the rights of citizens, probably because the rights of citizens expanded sooner and more quickly than the rights of migrants. Over time, however, the differences between countries with strong and weak unions have diminished, and in more recent years, the ‘rights gap’ between citizens and migrants has in fact been smaller in countries with strong unions than in countries with weak unions.

Appendix to Chapter 3

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Temin
Keyword(s):  
Estimating Equations ◽  
Dummy Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Log Price ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time

I employ descriptive regressions of the price of each commodity over time to examine the long-and short-run variation in prices as a whole. The results of estimating equations in the text show that contemporaries could not have predicted future prices; descriptive regressions can tell later observers what actually happened. The first such regression evaluates the long-run trend of prices. It models the relationship between each commodity’s log price and the year, year squared, year cubed, and three dummy variables for different intervals:...

Rationally Irrational?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dov Cohen ◽  
Ivan Hernandez ◽  
Karl Gruschow ◽  
Andrzej Nowak ◽  
Michele J Gelfand ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Agent Based Models ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Negative Reciprocity ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Over Time

A commitment to honor is a commitment to irrationality—at least in the short-run—because it involves defending one’s honor, regardless of stakes or cost. Yet, circumstances giving rise to honor cultures—lawless environments, portable (easy-to-steal) wealth—create milieus where people must appear tough to deter predators. Thus, what seems irrational in the short-run may be rational in the long-run. This chapter describes three agent-based models exploring when an honor stance is advantageous and examining population dynamics of strategies in the environment. Models track empirical observations well. Further, models highlight: how prosocial reciprocity (not just vengeance) is crucial for honor to thrive; how positive and negative reciprocity become correlated over time in honor cultures; the rise of a strategy opposite to honor and how honor and its opposite exist symbiotically; how evolution cannot be outsmarted but can be “outdumbed”; cycling of strategies’ popularity; and Child × Environment interactions producing drift.

Taxation of robots – what would have been the view of Smith and Marx on it?

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-53
Author(s):  
Maik Huettinger ◽  
Jonathan Andrew Boyd
Keyword(s):  
Karl Marx ◽  
Adam Smith ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Social ◽  
Human Labor ◽  
Short Run ◽  
History Of ◽  
Modern Economic

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to approach the issue of taxation of robotic process automation (RPA) through an interpretive lens provided by both Adam Smith and Karl Marx. Both scholars have affected the understanding and attitudes of generations of economists, and their ideas have considerable influenced modern economic policy. It will be argued that Smith and Marx have much to offer to help contemporary economists understand the taxation of RPA, and their writings on machines, automation, and their impact on the human labor force will be discussed from their primary texts. Design/methodology/approach The paper interprets the works of Marx and Smith in relation to contemporary debates on automation, particularly, proposals to tax technological innovations to offset the social costs of automation’s displacement effects. Findings In the case of Adam Smith, there is not enough evidence to suggest that he would support a specific taxation of RPA; however, he very well might agree with a modest taxation of capital goods. Marx would very likely support a taxation in the short-run, however, would be inclined to caution that the ownership of robots should in the long run be transferred to society. Originality/value This paper uses primary texts from the discipline of history of economic thought to spark a discussion about compensating the externalities of technological innovation.

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