scholarly journals MONETARY POLICY AND RESERVE REQUIREMENTS IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-34
Author(s):  
Jose Angelo Divino ◽  
Carlos Haraguchi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Reserve Requirements ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

This paper investigates how a combination of monetary and macroprudential policies might affect the dynamics of a small open economy (SOE) with financial frictions under alternative discretionary shocks. Discretionary shocks in productivity and domestic and foreign monetary policies identify the roles of alternative interest rate and reserve requirement rules to stabilize the economy. The model is calibrated for the Brazilian economy. The exchange rate channel of transmission is relevant for foreign but not for domestic shocks. The interest rate rule should target domestic inflation and should not react to the exchange rate. The countercyclical reserve requirements rule, in its turn, should aggressively react to the credit-gap and not include a fixed component. Under both domestic and foreign shocks, the countercyclical effectiveness of the macroprudential policy improves when the degree of openness increases. There is a complementarity between monetary and macroprudential policy rules to stabilize the SOE.

scholarly journals PERANAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER DALAM MENJAGA STABILITAS PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA SEBAGAI RESPON TERHADAP FLUKTUASI PEREKONOMIAN DUNIA

2007 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-177
Author(s):  
M. Maulana Al Arif ◽  
Achmad Tohari
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the impact of the inflation and the world interest rate on the Indonesian economy and the effectiveness of the Indonesian central bank policy to adopt the domestic macroeconomic fluctuation.Assuming Indonesia as a small-open economy, the Stuctural Vector Autoregressive Model is utilized on the monthly data during the periode of 1999: 1 – 2004: 12 covering the main domestic macroeconomic indicator (output, price, money supply, interest rate and the exchange rate) and the world oil price and world interest rate as the disturbance source.The analysis provides 2 main results, first, the international variables do have impacts on the domestic variables fluctuation, implying the fragility of the domestic economy due to the external shock, second, the monetary policy is effective on supporting the economic growth and stabilizing the price level. However, the Bank Indonesia policy to stabilize the international shock via the exchange rate channel, contributes to a higher impact of the international shock on domestic interest rate.Keywords: monetary policy, business cycle, SVARJEL Classification: E52, E32, C32, F41

scholarly journals Fluctuations in the Swiss Franc: What Has Changed Since the Euro's Introduction?

2002 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas M. Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Swiss Franc ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Shed Light

The monetary implications arising from EMU for Swiss monetary policy show up primarily in the exchange rate. As of yet, fluctuations in the Swiss franc against the euro have been surprisingly moderate. The Swiss franc has thus tracked the euro's decline against the US dollar without experiencing strong inflationary pressures and a convergence in the interest-rate differential: a paradoxical result for a small open economy. This paper examines critically whether the recent record reveals information about a change in SNB monetary policy. It also attempts to shed light on the SNB's ability to implement an independent monetary policy with the new landscape defined by EMU. Four hypotheses of euro tracking are considered.

scholarly journals SUATU PENDEKATAN MONETER TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI PADA PEREKONOMIAN TERBUKA KECIL DENGAN KONTROL MODAL: STUDI KASUS INDONESIA 2010.1-2014.12

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Aris Soelistyo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Capital Mobility ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
The Interest Rate

The purpose of this study is to formulate the monetary model of the economic growth in a small open economy (small open economy) with a free exchange rate system (flexible exchange rate system) and capital mobility is not perfect (imperfect capital mobility), as well as the factors that influence economic growth, exchange rates and interest rates with monetary approach (mathematically and empirically).This study uses a structural analysis approach to vector autoregresion with monthly data Indonesia in 2010-2014. The empirical results reveal that changes in the money supply is a significant negative effect on economic growth 0.1008 Indonesia. Moreover, economic growth is affected by the magnitude of the previous period of economic growth significantly by 0.391825, where the magnitude of the effect is determined by the strength of the exchange rate in response to changes in interest rates Indonesia, the greater the exchange rate response to changes in interest rates, the weakening influence of the period of economic growth prior to economic growth. For a small open economy (small open economy) with a free exchange rate system (flexible exchange rate system), then the value of the rupiah per dollar exchange rate is influenced significantly by the amount of money in circulation (0.063318), the exchange rate value of the last period (0.746), and the interest rate the previous period (0.3424), the interest rate two previous periods (-0.305848).For situations of capital mobility is not perfect, then the variable interest rate is treated as endogenous variables, the empirical results show that the level of BI rate significantly influenced only by the BI rate the previous month (1.4526) and the interest rate of the previous two months (0.524) 

The Role of Different Channels in Transmitting Monetary Policy into Output and Price in Vietnam

2015 ◽  
pp. 20-40
Author(s):  
Vinh Nguyen Thi Thuy
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

The paper investigates the mechanism of monetary transmission in Vietnam through different channels - namely the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel, the asset channel and the credit channel for the period January 1995 - October 2009. This study applies VAR analysis to evaluate the monetary transmission mechanisms to output and price level. To compare the relative importance of different channels for transmitting monetary policy, the paper estimates the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of variables. The empirical results show that the changes in money supply have a significant impact on output rather than price in the short run. The impacts of money supply on price and output are stronger through the exchange rate and credit channels, but however, are weaker through the interest rate channel. The impacts of monetary policy on output and inflation may be erroneous through the equity price channel because of the lack of an established and well-functioning stock market.

The long-run stability of a small, open economy under crawling peg regime

2002 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-78
Author(s):  
S. Çiftçioğlu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Output Stability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The paper analyses the long-run (steady-state) output and price stability of a small, open economy which adopts a “crawling-peg” type of exchange-rate regime in the presence of various kinds of random shocks. Analytical and simulation results suggest that with the exception of money demand shocks, an exchange rate policy which involves a relatively higher rate of indexation of the exchange rate to price level is likely to lead to the worsening of price stability for all types of shocks. On the other hand, the impact of adopting such a policy on output stability depends on the type of the shock; for policy shocks to the exchange rate and shocks to output demand, output stability is worsened whereas for the shocks to risk premium of domestic assets, supply price of domestic output and the wage rate, better output stability is achieved in the long run.

scholarly journals A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián Fanelli ◽  
Ludwig Straub
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Pecuniary Externality ◽  
Optimal Intervention ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Intervention Policy

Abstract We study a real small open economy with two key ingredients (1) partial segmentation of home and foreign bond markets and (2) a pecuniary externality that makes the real exchange rate excessively volatile in response to capital flows. Partial segmentation implies that, by intervening in the bond markets, the central bank can affect the exchange rate and the spread between home- and foreign-bond yields. Such interventions allow the central bank to address the pecuniary externality, but they are also costly, as foreigners make carry trade profits. We analytically characterize the optimal intervention policy that solves this trade-off: (1) the optimal policy leans against the wind, stabilizing the exchange rate; (2) it involves smooth spreads but allows exchange rates to jump; (3) it partly relies on “forward guidance,” with non-zero interventions even after the shock has subsided; (4) it requires credibility, in that central banks do not intervene without commitment. Finally, we shed light on the global consequences of widespread interventions, using a multi-country extension of our model. We find that, left to themselves, countries over-accumulate reserves, reducing welfare and leading to inefficiently low world interest rates.

Financial openness, bank capital flows, and the effectiveness of macroprudential policies

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Hao Jin ◽  
Chen Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Open Economies ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Bank Capital ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

Abstract This paper quantitatively examines the macroeconomic and welfare effects of macroprudential policies in open economies. We develop a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, where banks choose their funding sources (domestic vs. foreign deposits) and are subject to financial constraints. Our model predicts that banks reduce leverage in response to a macroprudential policy tightening, but increasingly rely on foreign funding. This endogenous shifts of funding composition significantly undermine the stabilizing effect and welfare gains of macroprudential policies. Our results also suggest macroprudential policies are less effective in financially more open economies, and optimal policy should take capital flows into consideration. Finally, we find empirical support for the model predictions in a group of developing and emerging economies.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Behaviour after Recent Float: The Experience of Pakistan

2004 ◽  
Vol 43 (4II) ◽  
pp. 829-852
Author(s):  
M. Ali Kemal ◽  
Rana Murad Haider
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Market Exchange ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

Exchange rate is a price of traded goods in the world market. To maintain the commodities competitive in the market, exchange rate should be adjusted according to the change in prices. If it is adjusted accordingly, then we say that purchasing power parity (PPP) holds in that country. However, phenomenon of PPP is completely kicked out under floating exchange rate regime in the short run [see for example, Rogoff (1999); Mark and Choi (1997); MacDonald (1999); Obstfeld and Taylor (1997); Coleman (1995); O’Connel (1998) and Michael, et al. (1997)]. Recent statement by the President of the National Bank of Pakistan, that the exchange rate and the interest rate are two faces of the same coin [Bokhari (2004)], shows that the changes in the exchange rate is strongly associated with the changes in the interest rate differential.1 It is also argued that under free float the value of currency is determined by demand and supply of foreign exchange and to control the value of currency using open market operations interest rate is used as the key monetary policy tool. Moreover, deterioration of trade balance leads to deprecation in exchange to make the exports competitive in the market and vice versa.

scholarly journals Analisis Inflasi di Indonesia (Suatu Pendekatan Model Dinamik)

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Afrizal Afrizal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to determine the magnitude of the effect of the money supply, the exchange rate of rupiah (exchange rate) and the interest rate on inflation in Indonesia during the period 2000.12016.4. The analysis tools used for this research data are: unit root test, integration degree test, cointegration test, error correction model / ECM. The results showed that all staioner research data at level 1 (first difference) based on cointegration test showed that the variables observed in this study co-integration or have long-term relationship. The ECM model used is valid, as indicated by the error correction term (ECT) coefficient is significant. In the short run the money supply, the exchange rate of rupiah (exchange rate) and the interest rate is not significant to the inflation rate, but in the long term is significant.

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