scholarly journals A ‘probabilistic’ approach to the use of econometric models in sunset reviews

2007 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 371-396
Author(s):  
ALEXANDER KECK ◽  
BRUCE MALASHEVICH ◽  
IAN GRAY

AbstractEconomists have increasingly become involved in trade remedy and litigation matters that call for economic interpretation or quantification. The literature on the use of econometric methods in response to legal requirements of trade policy is rather limited. This article contributes to filling this gap by demonstrating the efficacy of using a simple ‘probabilistic’ model in analyzing the ‘likelihood’ of injury to the local industry concerned, following a finding of continuation or recurrence of dumping (or countervailable subsidies). The legal concept of ‘likelihood’ is not only particularly well-suited to illustrate the systemic need for trade lawyers and economists to cooperate. It is also of imminent practical relevance with a groundswell of ‘sunset’ reviews looming on the horizon. We discuss the significance of economic analysis for trade remedy investigations by reviewing the literature, the applicable WTO rules, and, in particular, the pertinent case law. The potential value of probabilistic simulations for ‘likelihood’ determinations is exemplified using a real-world application. Using data from past United States International Trade Commission investigations, we find that a probabilistic model that takes account of the uncertainty surrounding economic parameters reduces the risk of misjudging the effect on the domestic industry of a termination of trade remedies.

Author(s):  
Sharif E. Guseynov ◽  
Sergey Matyukhin ◽  
Misir J. Mardanov ◽  
Jekaterina V. Aleksejeva ◽  
Olga Sidorenko

The present paper deals with one problem of quantitative controlling the seeding of the sown area by agricultural crops in different agroclimatic conditions. The considered problem is studied from the standpoint of three strategies: from the seeding planning perspective aiming at minimal risk associated with possible unfavourable agroclimatic conditions (a probabilistic approach is used); from the perspective of obtaining the maximum crops sales profit (a deterministic approach is used); from the perspective of obtaining the maximum crops harvest. For the considered problem, mathematical models are constructed (one probabilistic model and two deterministic models, respectively), their analytical solutions are found, and then, using a specific example, the application of the constructed and solved mathematical models is illustrated as well as the obtained numerical results are analysed..


1985 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kikumi K. Tatsuoka

This paper introduces a probabilistic approach to the classification and diagnosis of erroneous rules of operations that result from misconceptions (“bugs”) in a procedural domain of arithmetic. The model is different from the usual deterministic strategies common in the field of artificial intelligence because variability of response errors is explicitly treated through item response theory. As a concrete example, we analyze a dataset that reflects the use of erroneous rules of operation in problems of signed-number subtraction. The same approach, however, is applicable to the classification of several different groups of response patterns caused by a variety of different underlying misconceptions, different backgrounds of knowledge, or treatment.


Author(s):  
Michael Wrase

Drawing on the socio-legal concept of legal culture, this chapter tries to explain the initial objections by many traditionalist legal scholars, politicians, and legal practitioners alike against comprehensive anti-discrimination regulation in Germany. It contrasts the rather weak culture of non-discrimination with a broadly shared appreciation for civil rights fostered by a long-established and extensive adjudication of the Federal Constitutional Court (‘FCC’). It can be shown that the missing national support for the new regulation has led to a very restricted transposition of the EU anti-discrimination directives. The Allgemeines Gleichbehandlungsgesetz more or less confines itself to implementing the provisions stipulated in the directives, and even contains several shortcomings and potential breaches of EU law, especially with regard the provision of public goods and services. Consequently, mobilization of non-discrimination rights has been rather weak in practice so far. However, there is good reason to conclude that anti-discrimination law has been gaining ground in Germany in recent years, and that it will be even more relevant in future. The ECJ adjudication has exerted considerable influence on the case law of the German labour courts. This might in the longer run also impact on the adjudication of the FCC with regard to the clause on non-discrimination in Article 3 Basic Law.


1985 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 128-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen R. Crutchfield

This paper develops an economic model of the New England groundfish market. A multi-sector, multi-level econometric model is estimated using data from 1970 to 1982. The parameters of the estimated model are used to characterize consumer demand for groundfish and related products. Retail and exvessel demands for fresh and frozen groundfish fillets are found to be highly elastic. Fresh fillets especially show high income elasticity of demand, reflecting their status as a luxury good. Only a very small and statistically weak relationship was found between the prices of imported groundfish and domestic ex vessel prices indicating that proposals to assist the domestic industry via tariffs may be ineffectual.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-145
Author(s):  
Dulce Lopes

The relevance of fraus legis – a falsely presented state of affairs – both in internal and private international law, and particularly within recognition procedures, has not been undisputed throughout the years. And in the midst of integration or close cooperation arrangements it might seem that the institute of fraus legis would definitively lose its interest due to an “unshaken” mutual confidence in the activity of other public authorities. This is however not the case, as demonstrated by European Union law where both legislative and case law examples show the renewed importance of such truthfulness or veracity requirement. Bearing this is mind, the present article has a dual purpose: the first aims to describe the legal concept of recognition in its diversity and richness. As an aggregating factor we will subsequently turn our attention to the “internal structure” of that concept and to the conditions or requisites it is dependent upon. One of such conditions is precisely the control of veracity of the act or situation that aims to be recognised by the receiving State.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 3651 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bartosz Szeląg ◽  
Agnieszka Cienciała ◽  
Szymon Sobura ◽  
Jan Studziński ◽  
Juan T. García

This paper presents the concepts of a probabilistic model for storm overflow discharges, in which arbitrary dynamics of the catchment urbanization were included in the assumed period covered by calculations. This model is composed of three components. The first constitutes the classification model for the forecast of storm overflow discharges, in which its operation was related to rainfall characteristics, catchment retention, as well as the degree of imperviousness. The second component is a synthetic precipitation generator, serving for the simulation of long-term observation series. The third component of the model includes the functions of dynamic changes in the methods of the catchment development. It allows for the simulation of changes in the extent of imperviousness of the catchment in the long-term perspective. This is an important advantage of the model, because it gives the possibility of forecasting (dynamic control) of catchment retention, accounting for the quantitative criteria and their potential changes in the long-term perspective in relation to the number of storm overflows. Analyses carried out in the research revealed that the empirical coefficients included in the logit model have a physical interpretation, which makes it possible to apply the obtained model to other catchments. The paper also shows the use of the prepared probabilistic model for rational catchment management, with respect to the forecasted number of storm overflow discharges in the long-term and short-term perspective. The model given in the work can be also applied to the design and monitoring of catchment retention in such a way that in the progressive climatic changes and urbanization of the catchment, the number of storm overflow discharges remains within the established range.


Author(s):  
Catharine Titi

A principle with a long pedigree, equity has been present in legal thought and in municipal legal systems since antiquity. Introduced in international legal decisions through claims commissions and arbitral tribunals, equity became progressively part and parcel of the international law mainstream. This book provides a systematic and comprehensive study of the legal concept of equity as it operates in contemporary international law, setting it on a new basis and dealing with some common misconceptions about it. In contrast with earlier studies on the topic, the book is informed by a body of judicial and arbitral case law that has never been so large and varied and it draws extensively on the prolific case law of investment tribunals, gaining insights from a valuable source that is typically ignored in public international law scholarship. From international cultural heritage law to the law on climate change, from maritime boundary delimitations to decisions on security for costs in investment arbitration, the relevance of equity is more far-reaching than has previously been conceded. As the importance of international law increases, continuously covering new domains, the value of equity increases with it. It is this new function of equity in the international law of the 21st century that this book explores.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
María José Castellanos Ruiz

Resumen: La Sentencia de la Audiencia Nacional (Sala de lo Contencioso-Administrativo) de 11 de septiembre de 2017 deniega la adquisición de la nacionalidad española a un ciudadano de la República de Guinea por polígamo, al no cumplir con el requisito del “suficientemente grado de integración en la sociedad española” (art. 22.3 CC), dando la razón así a la DGRN. Se analiza la jurisprudencia existente tratando de definir este concepto jurídico indeterminado, aunque también se ha dotado de contenido al mismo mediante algunas normas. De dicho análisis, se concluye que aunque la poligamia resulte válida conforme a la Ley nacional del sujeto (art. 9.1 CC), constituye una realidad contraria a los principios fundamentales del Derecho matrimonial español. Así que la ley extranjera que permite que una persona afectada por impedimento de ligamen (art. 46.2º CC) pueda casarse con otra persona, atenta contra el orden público internacional español (art. 12.3 CC). Sin embargo, los tribunales consideran que deben analizarse las circunstancias de cada caso, para comprobar que efectivamente el sujeto extranjero ejerce la poligamia de forma efectiva, y si no es así, se le debe otorgar la nacionalidad española, en contra de la opinión de la DGRN, que deniega la nacionalidad española porque en la certificación extranjera de matrimonio el sujeto opta por la poligamia, sin tener en cuenta si la ha ejercido realmente. En cualquier caso, se estudian también los efectos jurídicos de los matrimonios poligámicos en España, cuando el sujeto polígamo adquiere la nacionalidad española mediante fraude o engaño.Palabras clave: Nacionalidad española, poligamia, grado suficiente de integración en la sociedad española, orden público internacional.Abstract: The Judgment of the Audiencia Nacional Court (Sala de lo Contencioso-administrativo) of September 11, 2017 denies the acquisition of the Spanish nacionality to a citizen of the Republic of Guinea legally married to several women in his country of origin, due to the lack of “sufficient degree of integration in the Spanish society” (Art. 22.3 CC), confirming the statement of the DGRN (administrative Spanish authorities). In the existing jurisprudence this indeterminate legal concept is defined, although some rules do regulate it as well. From this analysis, we conclude that although polygamy is valid according to the national law of the foreign individual (Art. 9.1 CC), it constitutes a reality against the fundamental principles of Spanish marital law. So the foreign law that allows a person affected by hindrance to marriage (Art. 46.2 º CC) can get married with another person, violates the Spanish public policy rule (Art. 12.3 CC). However, the courts consider that the circumstances of each case should be analyzed to verify that the foreign individual effectively exercises polygamy, and if not, he should access to the Spanish nationality, in opposition to the DGRN opinion, which denies the access to the Spanish nationality because the applicant chooses polygamy in the foreign marriage certificate, although he has not really exercised it. In any case, the legal effects of polygamous marriages in Spain are also studied, when the polygamous applicant acquires the Spanish nationality through fraud or deception.Keywords: Spanish nacionality, poligamy, sufficient level of integration in the Spanish society, public policy rule.


2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 466-496 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolas Sellheim

In the court cases aiming to annul EU Regulation 1007/2009 on trade in seal products the European Courts have inter alia ruled that a ‘direct and individual’ concern, a precondition for providing locus standi for the annulment of a contested regulation, does not exist for the commercial sealing industry in Canada. Based on Community case-law, the principle of ‘direct and individual concern’ is therefore interpreted in a restrictive manner, yet without hinting towards judicial activism. This article aims to ascertain whether this interpretation can be brought in conjunction with empirical findings stemming from field work conducted in the sealing industry in Newfoundland or whether the legal concept and empirical data contradict each other. While analysing the legal reasoning of the courts in two exemplary cases, a case study of three workers in the industry is presented to provide ethnographic insight into the commercial sealing industry and to provide empirical data on the ‘direct and individual concern’ of developments in the EU for them.


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