scholarly journals Demographic Dividend or Demographic Threat in Pakistan?

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Durr-e- Nayab
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Old Age Security ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population

Population growth and size have remained the focus of debate for centuries but the recent demographic transition in developing countries has made social scientists take note of the changing age structure of the population as well. As a result of declining population growth and consequent changes in age structure, the proportion of working-age population is increasing in most developing countries. An associated decline in the dependent age population offers a window of opportunity, referred to as the ‘demographic dividend’. Pakistan is also going through the demographic transition, and is experiencing a once-in-a-lifetime demographic dividend as the working-age population bulges and the dependency ratio declines. This paper looks into the demographic dividend being offered to Pakistan and its implications for the country, mainly through three mechanisms: labour supply, savings, and human capital. For economic benefits to materialise, there is a need for policies dealing with education, public health, and those that promote labour market flexibility and provide incentives for investment and savings. On the contrary, if appropriate policies are not formulated, the demographic dividend might, in fact, be a cost, leading to unemployment and an unbearable strain on education, health, and old age security.

scholarly journals Mortality, fertility, and economic development: An analysis of 201 countries from 1960 to 2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingfeng Li ◽  
Amy O. Tsui ◽  
Li Liu ◽  
Saifuddin Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Northern Africa ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population

Background: The efficient utilization of the economic opportunities effected by rapid reductions in fertility and mortality is known as the demographic dividend. In this paper, our objectives are to (1) estimate the contribution of fertility and mortality decline during the period 1960-2015 to demographic dividend due to change in age structure, and (2) assess the economic consequences of population age structure change. Methods: Employing the cohort component method, we performed population projections with different scenarios of changes in mortality and fertility between 1960 and 2015 in 201 countries. We specifically focused on low- and middle-income countries in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), Northern Africa, and sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) Results: The child dependency ratio, defined as the number of children (0-14 years) per 100 working age population (15-64 years), would be 54 higher than the observed level in 2015 in both Asia and LAC, had fertility not declined. That means that every 100 working age population would need to support an additional 54 children. Due to the less substantial fertility decline, child dependency ratio would only be 16 higher if there were no fertility decline in SSA. Global GDP (constant 2011 international $) would be $19,016 billion less than the actual level in 2015 had the fertility decline during 1960-2015 not occurred, while the respective regional decreases are $12,390 billion in Asia, $1,985 billion in LAC, $484 billion in Northern Africa, and $321 billion in SSA. Conclusions: SSA countries may accelerate the catch-up process in reducing fertility by investing more in family planning programs. This will lead to a more favorable dependency ratio and consequently facilitate a demographic dividend opportunity in SSA, which, if properly utilized, will spur economic development for the coming decades.

Demographic Transition, Oil, and Institutions

2020 ◽  
pp. 1522-1553
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Farzanegan
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Internal Conflict ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Oil Rents

We examine political and economic drivers of demographic transition and the moderating role of institutions, macroeconomic instability and oil rents dependency in the final effects of increasing working age population on economic development and internal conflict. Using panel data estimations for more than 100 countries from 1984 to 2012 we find that demographic transition may lead to demographic dividend only if the country enjoys good quality of economic and political institutions, a diversified economy and stable consumer prices. Otherwise demographic dividend is not guaranteed. By contrast, we may expect a demographic curse. These results have important policy implications for the case of Iran which is expecting a significant transition in its population age structure since 1990s. Future of Iran is highly dependent on the proper use of potential demographic rent which can turn against the political stability if the wrong policies and institutions are in place and country dependence on oil rents continues as before.

scholarly journals The demographic dividend is more than an education dividend

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (42) ◽  
pp. 25982-25984
Author(s):  
Rainer Kotschy ◽  
Patricio Suarez Urtaza ◽  
Uwe Sunde
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Positive Growth ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Effect Of Age

The demographic dividend has long been viewed as an important factor for economic development and provided a rationale for policies aiming at a more balanced age structure through birth control and family planning. Assessing the relative importance of age structure and increases in human capital, recent work has argued that the demographic dividend is related to education and has suggested a dominance of improving education over age structure. Here we reconsider the empirical relevance of shifts in the age distribution for development for a panel of 159 countries over the period 1950 to 2015. Based on a flexible model of age-structured human capital endowments, the results document important interactions between age structure and human capital endowments, suggesting that arguments of clear dominance of education over age structure are unwarranted and lead to potentially misleading policy conclusions. An increase in the working-age population share has a strong and significant positive effect on growth, even conditional on human capital, in line with the conventional notion of a demographic dividend. An increase in human capital only has positive growth effects if combined with a suitable age structure. An increasing share of the most productive age groups has an additional positive effect on economic performance. Finally, the results show considerable heterogeneity in the effect of age structure and human capital for different levels of development. Successful policies for sustainable development should take this heterogeneity into account to avoid detrimental implications of a unidimensional focus on human capital without accounting for demography.

scholarly journals Education rather than age structure brings demographic dividend

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (26) ◽  
pp. 12798-12803 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Lutz ◽  
Jesus Crespo Cuaresma ◽  
Endale Kebede ◽  
Alexia Prskawetz ◽  
Warren C. Sanderson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Population Policies ◽  
Dependency Ratios ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Negative Impacts

The relationship between population changes and economic growth has been debated since Malthus. Initially focusing on population growth, the notion of demographic dividend has shifted the attention to changes in age structures with an assumed window of opportunity that opens when falling birth rates lead to a relatively higher proportion of the working-age population. This has become the dominant paradigm in the field of population and development, and an advocacy tool for highlighting the benefits of family planning and fertility decline. While this view acknowledges that the dividend can only be realized if associated with investments in human capital, its causal trigger is still seen in exogenous fertility decline. In contrast, unified growth theory has established human capital as a trigger of both demographic transition and economic growth. We assess the relative importance of changing age structure and increasing human capital for economic growth for a panel of 165 countries during the time period of 1980–2015. The results show a clear dominance of improving education over age structure and give evidence that the demographic dividend is driven by human capital. Declining youth dependency ratios even show negative impacts on income growth when combined with low education. Based on a multidimensional understanding of demography that considers education in addition to age, and with a view to the additional effects of education on health and general resilience, we conclude that the true demographic dividend is a human capital dividend. Global population policies should thus focus on strengthening the human resource base for sustainable development.

scholarly journals Demographic Problem in the Modern World Economy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina Vitalevna Kriukova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Structural Adjustment ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Stage Of Development ◽  
The World ◽  
Current Stage

The relevance of the study is due to the fact that the current stage of development of the world economy is characterized by a deep structural adjustment, leading to increased differences between industrialized and developing countries. The need to analyze the processes taking place in the modern world economy, as well as the possible scenario of its development under the influence of the demographic factor, further confirms the relevance of this study. The study raises the problem of global economic security – the changing structure of the distribution of the world's population by country and region, the aging of the population in some states, and the formation of a young age structure and accelerated population growth in others.

scholarly journals India’s demographic dividend or disaster? Mismanaged factors of production—Land, labor, infrastructure, cities

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1253
Author(s):  
Ajay Chhibber
Keyword(s):  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Force Participation ◽  
Second Generation ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Labor Force Participation Rate ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Factors Of Production ◽  
Cooperative Federalism

India entered its so-called demographic dividend around 2005—expected to last until 2055. India has already utilized almost a third of the period of its demographic dividend—it saw a period of explosive growth from 2003–2012—but has not been able to sustain that growth. And since 2012, growth has generated less and less employment, as it has turned inward, and so it is not helping the working-age population get usefully employed. The labor force participation rate for women has been low and is now falling. What can be done to use India’s underlying factors of production better to generate greater, more inclusive, and sustained prosperity for its citizens? These second-generation reforms are not easy, as they need cooperative federalism and much broader consensus, but without them India’s demographic dividend may become a disaster.

scholarly journals Demographic Change and Economic Growth in India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neha Jain ◽  
Srinivas Goli
Keyword(s):  
Capita Income ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Window Of Opportunity ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Per Capita Income ◽  
Employment Opportunities ◽  
Gender Empowerment ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Working Age Population

In this paper, we assess the economic benefits of demographic changes in India by employing econometric models and robustness checks based on panel data gathered over a period of more than three decades. Our analysis highlights four key points. First, the contribution of India’s demographic dividend is estimated to be around 1.9 percentage points out of 12% average annual growth rate in per capita income during 1981–2015. Second, India’s demographic window of opportunity began in 2005, significantly improved after 2011, and will continue till 2061. Third, our empirical analysis supports the argument that the realisation of the demographic dividend is conditional on a conducive policy environment with enabling aspects such as quality education, good healthcare, decent employment opportunities, good infrastructure, and gender empowerment. Fourth, the working-age population in India contributes around one-fourth of the inequality in per capita income across states. Thus, to reap the maximum dividends from the available demographic window of opportunity, India needs to work towards enhancing the quality of education and healthcare in addition to providing good infrastructure, gender empowerment, and decent employment opportunities for the growing working-age population.

Demographic trends will shape economic prospects

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Lower Income ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
The World ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population

Transforming the world economy by 2040, working-age population growth will come almost entirely from lower-income states

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