Pension reform with variable retirement age: a simulation analysis for Germany

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 389-417 ◽  
Author(s):  
HANS FEHR ◽  
MANUEL KALLWEIT ◽  
FABIAN KINDERMANN
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Extensive Margin ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Old Age Poverty ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
One Year ◽  
Model Features

AbstractThe paper analyzes the recent pension reform in Germany which increases the normal retirement age by two years. The applied simulation model features a realistic demographic transition, distinguishes three skill classes with different life expectancies and allows individuals to choose their labor supply at the intensive and the extensive margin.Our simulation results indicate that under the existing pension rules long-run contribution rates and old-age poverty rates will increase considerably. The proposed rise in the normal retirement age will postpone effective retirement by about one year and redistribute towards future cohorts. A stronger delay in effective retirement may be achieved by raising the actuarial adjustment of benefits.

scholarly journals The influence of climatic conditions on the efficiency of the solar system

2020 ◽  
Vol 167 ◽  
pp. 05002
Author(s):  
Viacheslav Shemelin ◽  
Tomas Matuska
Keyword(s):  
Solar System ◽  
Solar Collector ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Hot Water ◽  
Apartment Building ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
One Year

The simulation analysis of the solar hot water preparation system for an apartment building is presented. The analyses investigated the effect of climatic conditions on the efficiency of the solar system. To demonstrate the influence of climatic conditions, four building locations (Stockholm, Prague, Milan, and Barcelona), six different solar collectors, and six different design areas of solar collector field were used. The aim was to verify how the efficiency of the solar system varies depending on the climatic and design conditions. Moreover, the influence of year-to-year fluctuations of climatic conditions was also explored. The analysis has been provided by using TRNSYS simulation software over the period of one year using the time step of 2 minutes. The simulation results clearly showed that the efficiency of the SDHW system is dependent on the climatic conditions, especially on the air temperature. On the other hand, year-to-year weather fluctuations do not strongly affect the efficiency of the SDHW system.

scholarly journals Coping with Spain's aging: retirement rules and incentives

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 549-581 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARIO CATALÁN ◽  
JAIME GUAJARDO ◽  
ALEXANDER W. HOFFMAISTER
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Welfare Effects ◽  
Work Life ◽  
Substitution Effects ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Spanish Economy ◽  
Pension Reforms ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Pension Benefits

AbstractThis paper evaluates the macroeconomic and welfare effects of extending the averaging period used to calculate pension benefits in a pay-as-you-go system. It also examines the complementarities between reforms extending the averaging period and those increasing the retirement age under alternative tax policies. The analysis applies a model in the Auerbach-Kotlikoff tradition to the Spanish economy. Extending the averaging period to the entire work life maximizes long-run welfare and limits expenditure pressures at the peak of the demographic shock as much as increasing the retirement age in line with life expectancy. Moreover, during the demographic transition, pension reforms induce intertemporal labor substitution effects that engender aggregate labor cycles.

STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF RAISING THE RETIREMENT AGE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY IN RUSSIA AND EUROPE

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svetlana Apenko ◽  
◽  
Olga Kiriliuk ◽  
Elena Legchilina ◽  
Tatiana Tsalko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Labor Relations ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
Institutional Changes ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
The Impact

The article presents the results of a study of the impact of pension reform in Russia on economic growth and quality of life in a digital economy, taking into account the experience of raising the retirement age in Europe. The aim of the study was to identify and analyze the impact of raising the retirement age on economic growth in the context of the development of digitalization in Russia and a comparative analysis with European countries. Results: the studies conducted allowed us to develop a system of indicators characterizing the impact of raising the retirement age on economic growth and the quality of life of the population in the context of digitalization. The authors found that raising the retirement age leads to a change in labor relations in Russia and Europe. The application of the proposed indicators can be used in the formation of a balanced state socio-economic policy in the field of institutional changes in the field of labor relations and raising the retirement age. The study was carried out under a grant from the RFBR № 19-010-00362 А.

Pension Reform in Russia: Assessing the Susceptibility of GDP Production to a Shift in the Number of the Working-Age Population

2019 ◽  
pp. 80-86
Author(s):  
T. P. Skufina ◽  
S. V. Baranov
Keyword(s):  
Pension Reform ◽  
Fixed Capital ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
The Impact

The presented study considers the susceptibility of gross domestic product (GDP) production to a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in retirement age starting with 2019.Aim. The study aims to examine the quantitative assessments of GDP production in Russia with allowance for the changes in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the actual retirement age.Tasks. The authors forecast the number of the working-age population with allowance for an increase in the retirement age; develop a model to establish a correlation between the number of the workingage population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production; quantify the impact of the shift in the number of the working-age population on GDP production in Russia. Methods. This study is based on the results of modeling and long-term forecasting.Results. An economic-mathematical model to establish a correlation between the number of the working-age population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production is presented. To specify the economic effects of a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the retirement age, Russia’s GDP production is forecasted for the “old” and “new” (increased retirement age) pension scheme. The forecast is provided for three variants of the number of the working-age population.Conclusions. It is found that with the “old” pension scheme with a lower retirement age GDP production across all three variants will decrease by 2036 compared to 2017. With regard to the “new” scheme that increases the retirement age, it is concluded that an increase in the retirement age is a factor that facilitates GDP production. However, its effect on economic growth will be insignificant.

scholarly journals Actuarial deductions for early retirement

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
Markus Knell
Keyword(s):  
Early Retirement ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Budget Constraint ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Single Individual ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Market Interest Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Retirement Behavior ◽  
The Right

Abstract This paper studies how the rates of deduction for early retirement have to be determined in pay-as-you-go (PAYG) systems in order to keep their budget stable. The derivation of these deductions requires the use of a multiperiod intertemporal budget constraint that involves assumptions about the retirement behavior of past, present, and future cohorts. In general, it is not possible to calculate budget-neutral deductions from the budget constraint of a single individual who retires before the target retirement age—an approach that dominates the related literature. Only for specific cases one can use this second approach but then one has to adjust the discount rate to the assumption about collective retirement. If there is only one deviating individual, then the right choice is the market interest rate while for a stationary retirement distribution it is the internal rate of return of the PAYG system. In this case, the necessary deductions are lower than under the standard approach. This is also true for retirement ages that fluctuate randomly around a stationary distribution. Various long-run developments (e.g., increases in life expectancy or permanent changes in the average retirement age) might cause challenges for the sustainability of the pension system. These developments, however, can only be dealt with by adequate adjustments to the basic pension formulas and not by the use of deduction rates.

Determinants of Budget Deficit in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Maimuna M Shehu ◽  
Ibrahim M Adamu
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Cointegrating Vector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Government ◽  
One Year ◽  
High Level

This paper investigates the factors governing the determination of budget deficit in Nigeria from 1981q1 through 2016q4. Our methodology is based on Johansen cointegration and Vector Error Correction model (VECM) approach. The result from the Johansen cointegration test suggests one cointegrating vector, which indicates the existence of a long run cointegrating relationship. Evidence from the long run and short run parameters suggest that exchange rate, interest rate and one year lag of budget deficit are the major determinants of budget deficit. Therefore, to achieve a realistic fiscal surplus, the government should determine a high level of accountability in its fiscal operations. In addition, any fiscal surplus should be channeled into productive investments to diversify the economy and reduce the likelihood of potential budget deficits.

Simulation Analysis and Optimization of Lubricating Oil System

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiongxiao Wu ◽  
Jianjun Wang ◽  
Jingming Chen ◽  
Pengzheng Li
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Sudden Change ◽  
Pressure Change ◽  
Lubricating Oil ◽  
Maximum Pressure ◽  
Closing Time ◽  
Original Design ◽  
Relief Valve ◽  
Simulation Results

Abstract Based on the one-dimensional simulation model of lubricating oil system is established and analyzed by using FLOWMASTER software, this paper proposes a new method of optimizing lubricating oil system by PID technology. Ensure that the configuration requirements and control strategies of the relevant accessories of the simulation model are satisfied with the design requirements. Firstly, by simulating lubricating oil pressure fluctuation and lubricating oil flow distribution under Open/Close Valve in different opening and closing time, the optimal opening/closing time of Open/Close Valve is determined to be 0.2 s and 0.5 s respectively. Secondly, by writing the controller script file combined with a controller to realize automatic unloading relief valve simulation, determine the relief valve pressure regulating range of 0∼0.38 MPa, For precision of constant pressure valve of oil spill, the simulation results show that the average 10 m3/h flow caused by pressure changes of about 0.06 MPa. Under the flow sudden change signal of about 40 m3/h, the maximum pressure change is less than 0.1 MPa. Through the simulation results, it is found that most of the lubrication parts in the original design have the phenomenon of flow redundancy, which causes unnecessary pump power loss. The system is optimized by PID technology. By comparing the simulation results before and after optimization, it is found that the speed of constant displacement pump could be changed in time by PID controller, and the flow redundancy could be improved significantly, so the lubricating oil system could be lower consumption and achieve the purpose of optimization.

scholarly journals Research on Fault Diagnosis of Hydraulic System of Fast Erecting Device Based on Fuzzy Neural Network

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yangbing Zheng ◽  
Xiao Xue ◽  
Jisong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Fault Diagnosis ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Hydraulic System ◽  
Fuzzy Neural Network ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Fuzzy Relation ◽  
Analysis Procedure ◽  
Fuzzy Neural ◽  
Simulation Results

In order to improve the fault diagnosis effectiveness of hydraulic system in erecting devices, the fuzzy neural neural network is applied to carry out fault diagnosis of hydraulic system. Firstly, the main faults of hydraulic system of erecting mechanism are summarized. The main faults of hydraulic system of erecting devices concludes abnormal noise, high temperature of hydraulic oil of hydraulic system, leakage of hydraulic system, low operating speed of hydraulic system, and the characteristics of different faults are analyzed. Secondly, basic theory of fuzzy neural network is studied, and the framework of fuzzy neural network is designed. The inputting layer, fuzzy layer, fuzzy relation layer, relationship layer after fuzzy operation and outputting layer of fuzzy neural network are designed, and the corresponding mathematical models are confirmed. The analysis procedure of fuzzy neural network is established. Thirdly, simulation analysis is carried out for a hydraulic system in erecting device, the BP neural network reaches convergence after 600 times iterations, and the fuzzy neural network reaches convergence after 400 times iterations, fuzzy neural network can obtain higher accuracy than BP neural network, and running time of fuzzy neural network is less than that of BP neural network, therefore, simulation results show that the fuzzy neural network can effectively improve the fault diagnosis efficiency and precision. Therefore, the fuzzy neural network is reliable for fault diagnosis of hydraulic system in erecting devices, which has higher fault diagnosis effect, which can provide the theory basis for healthy detection of hydraulic system in erecting devices.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document