scholarly journals Pension reform in an OLG model with heterogeneous abilities

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
TIM BUYSE ◽  
FREDDY HEYLEN ◽  
RENAAT VAN DE KERCKHOVE

AbstractWe study the effects of pension reform on hours worked, human capital, income and welfare in an open economy populated by four overlapping generations: three active generations (the young, the middle aged and the older) and one generation of retired. Within each generation we distinguish individuals with high, medium or low ability to build human capital. Our simulation results prefer a pay-as-you-go pension system with a particular earnings-related linkage above a fully-funded private system. This pay-as-you-go system conditions pension benefits on past individual labor income, with a high weight on labor income earned when older and a low weight on labor income earned when young. Uncorrected, however, such a system implies welfare losses for current low-ability generations and rising inequality. Complementing or replacing it by basic and/or minimum pension components is negative for aggregate employment and welfare. Better is to maintain the tight link between individual labor income and the pension also for low-ability individuals, but to strongly raise their replacement rate. An additional correction improving the welfare of low-ability individuals would be to maintain for these individuals equal weights on past labor income.

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
EDGAR VOGEL ◽  
ALEXANDER LUDWIG ◽  
AXEL BÖRSCH-SUPAN

AbstractProjected demographic changes in industrialized and developing countries vary in extent and timing but will reduce the share of the population in working age everywhere. Conventional wisdom suggests that this will increase capital intensity with falling rates of return to capital and increasing wages. This decreases welfare for middle aged asset rich households. This paper takes the perspective of the three demographically oldest European nations – France, Germany and Italy – to address three important adjustment channels to dampen these detrimental effects of aging in these countries: investing abroad, endogenous human capital formation, and increasing the retirement age. Our quantitative finding is that endogenous human capital formation in combination with an increase in the retirement age has strong implications for economic aggregates and welfare, in particular in the open economy. These adjustments reduce the maximum welfare losses of demographic change for households alive in 2010 by about 2.2 percentage points in terms of consumption equivalent variation.


2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 (2) ◽  
pp. 27-55
Author(s):  
Yuriy Ezrokh

The article analyzes the pension reform implemented in Russia in 2013–2014, provides the modeling of possible pensions, determines the efficiency boundaries for the use of insurance and savings-insurance schemes offered by the Pension Fund of Russia. The author examines the activities and effectiveness in managing pension savings and reserves from non-state pension funds, especially the system of voluntary savings insurance. The study identifies the challenges faced by these financial institutions, which constrain the development of the Russian pension system. Drawing on logical and econometric analysis the author identifies the competitive opportunity for banks to participate in the Pension Benefits Act, calculates the proposals’ efficiency for future retirees and the banking system as a whole, determines the contribution of the proposed solutions to enhanced competition and more competitive banking environment.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maka Ghaniashvili

The paper focuses on the impact of the pandemic crisis on pension system in Georgia and analyzes the pros and cons of the ongoing pension reforms in the country. Decreased birth rates and increased life expectancy over the next decades will significantly change the picture of the age distribution of the population in many countries. As life expectancy increases and the birth rate decreases, more people retire than are added to the workforce. A change in the demographic picture necessitates fundamental pension reform. At the same time, the world is facing a crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The future is uncertain, both medically and financially. Despite optimistic forecasts, the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has begun in many countries which further increases the degree of uncertainty. Funded pension schemes suffer from the crisis because lower returns diminish their asset values, while low yields on public debt instruments increase the present value of their liabilities. This can generate both explicit fiscal risks— in the case of government guarantees—and implicit fiscal risks through lower private pension benefits or financial strain on the sponsoring employers. Our research is focused on the pension system and its development problems in Georgia, taking into account that since 2019, 1st January, the existing financial, demographic and economic challenges have determined the establishment of a new pension system. Main sources for the research are data gathered from the international organizations and local governmental and statistical data softwares. Our research results show that the pension reform launched in 2019 in Georgia is a significant step forward in reducing social imbalances and fiscal pressures in the medium / long term. However, for further development, it is important to systematically assess the effectiveness of pension policies, taking into account factors such as changes in demographic structure, expected fiscal spending, the inequality gap and the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1(21)) ◽  
pp. 45-61
Author(s):  
Lasha Beridze ◽  
Giorgi Abuselidze

The existence of pension schemes does not count for a long period, but its obligation has been historically proven, as the experience of countries has shown that the countries that have the best practices provide better social protection of the population when retiring. The article discusses the redistribution of pension assets worldwide, pragmatically and theoretically evaluating the pros and cons of retirement plans. The implementation of the pension reform in Georgia has been delayed many times due to the socio-economic situation, accompanied by the psychological attitude of the population towards distrust of the state. Georgia is on the path to European integration, where one of the most important requirements is the proper protection and social equalization of the socially vulnerable, while the existence of pension schemes ensures the accumulation of large amounts of funds, which can play an important role in capital and financial markets. The advantages of the existence of pension schemes may be reflected in the permanent increase of the equalization ratio, but it should be noted that at such times the macroeconomic indicators of the state should be relatively stable, such as inflation, stability of the national currency and others. As of today, the tasks set before the Pension Agency in Georgia are quite ambitious and require effective management, as the pension reform takes only a few years.In the social security system of the population, the pension is a mechanism for maintaining a stable material condition during the period of disability. Following in the footsteps of the development of mankind, pension systems were improved, the main purpose of which was to replace the average income per capita during the working period in a way that would not worsen living conditions. Therefore, the pension replacement rate has become a measure of the evaluation of the pension system of a country. The replacement rate in the pension systems of developed countries is in the range of 60-80%, in developing countries it is 15-30%, which is systematically subject to adjustment. Georgia, despite the normal rate of economic growth in the last decade, is not distinguished by a pension provision mechanism. From the day of independence, the state basic pension was periodically subject to changes. The change, however, was related not so much to the approach to the subsistence level as to the subsequent promises of a change of government. At the present stage, the pension system is in the process of modification, which aims to ensure adequate pension income, fiscal sustainability of pension expenditures and a more effective response to demographic changes in the population. Developing and developing countries are trying to equalize the time of retirement of the population, which is often difficult to achieve and requires both economic and political decisions, because the financing of social security from the state budget requires large expenditures. Which can often be the result of the devaluation of the national currency and high inflation, which in itself can be seen as an impediment to economic development. The increase in social spending is often the subject of controversy among scientists-economists, for example, for the development of the state, what kind of spending will be more effective, financing social or capital projects ?! Often, the increase in capital expenditures, at the expense of the social situation, is not considered a popular political decision, because at this time the dissatisfaction of the socially vulnerable segments of the population increases. One of the goals of the accumulative pension is to achieve social equality and a high replacement rate, but how much it will work in Georgia is also a question, because the unemployment rate and the self-employed are high in terms of labor force, in particular, about 30% of the labor force The amount of monthly salary that is published statistically is also problematic, because the calculation methodology is often disputed and there is no minimum wage at the level of legislation. The main functions of the Pension Agency are to invest the accumulated funds, but investments in investment assets are not defined by the National Bank and are quite narrow, for example, foreign practice allows pension funds to invest funds in both real assets and foreign financial markets. As mentioned, the implementation of such investments by the Pension Agency should be allowed in Georgia and should be used to finance national, strategic projects. Ensuring the stability of inflation and the national currency in Georgia remains a challenge. In the event of inflation approaching double digits, pension savings will lose effectiveness. Also noteworthy is the gender imbalance when receiving a pension, namely in terms of average salary and life expectancy, a man's salary is about 4 times higher than a woman receiving a pension, which should be considered unfair, the state will have to adjust the retirement age in the future. Finally, it should be noted that the pension reform, despite its shortcomings, should be considered a step forward, but it needs to refine certain issues, diversify asset management and economic stability, which will not be easy to achieve.


2007 ◽  
pp. 46-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Gurvich

We find that the present pension system is able to secure long-term formal sustainability. On the other hand, rapid fall of the replacement rate is expected, with the hardest period in 2018 to 2041, when ratio of average pension to average wage will be below 20%. Additional funds needed to keep this ratio at the level of 2006 amount to 2-3% of GDP in 2020-2041. Distributional implications of the pension reform are examined. The present value of losses born by elder cohorts from the reform are estimated to reach 9,9 bln roubles (in 2007 prices). The gender gap in pensions will increase substantially, to reach 36% by 2050. Measures addressing long-term problems of the pension system are discussed.


2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 469-487 ◽  
Author(s):  
PETER JOSEF STAUVERMANN ◽  
RONALD RAVINESH KUMAR

AbstractThe aim of the paper is to investigate how child policies affect the population growth and to what extent these policies are useful to increase pension benefits of a pay-as-you-go pension system in a small open economy. Specifically, we analyze two different child policies: the provision of child allowances and an educational subsidy. We apply an overlapping generations model in its canonical form, where we consider endogenous fertility, endogenous growth and endogenous aging of the society. From the analysis, we conclude that with a child allowance, there is a consequent increase in the number of children and decrease in pension benefits and life expectancy. On the other hand, we note that with an educational subsidy, there is a decrease in the number of children, and an increase in the pension benefits and the life expectancy, respectively. The model developed aims to complement the models of the Unified Growth Theory.


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kei Murata

This paper analyzes the micro and macroeconomic effects of pension reform by a consumption tax hike by using an overlapping-generations model that is primarily based on Groezen, Leers and Mejidam (2003). Although Groezen, Leers and Mejidam (2003) consider pay-as-you-go pension in a model of a small open economy, they do not analyze physical capital accumulation, assume that public pension is financed only by the intergenerational transfer of national pension premiums, and ignore consumption tax as a public pension resource. This study considers pay-as-you-go pension in a closed economy model and assumes that public pensions are financed by both consumption taxes and national pension premiums. In addition, although Groezen, Leers and Mejidam (2003) consider a model with endogenous fertility, this analysis uses a model with exogenous fertility based on Verbon (1988) and Breyer (1989). Subsequently, we consider the micro and macroeconomic effects of the policy that increases the consumption tax rate compared to the effects of increases under a national pension system. We find that even if the population growth rate is negative, both a consumption tax hike and increases in people’s national pension premiums surprisingly promote physical capital accumulation, and if promoting physical capital is enough, such policies enhance economic growth remarkably. Furthermore, we show that a consumption tax hike may promote physical capital accumulation compared to an increase in national pension premiums if the consumption tax rate is not too high.


2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yosr Abid ◽  
Cathal O'Donoghue

In order to assess people's preferences regarding potential reforms of the Irish state pension system, we surveyed a sample of the Irish adult population about their opinion on a selection of measures and issues related to the redistributive principles and parameters of the pension scheme. Even though very few people are well informed about the pension system, we observe a kind of homogeneity regarding perceptions about the way public pension benefits should be provided. As far as we know, this article represents the first attempt to elicit people's preferences for reforming the state Irish pension system using stated preferences techniques.


2011 ◽  
pp. 4-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Gurvich

The paper suggests measures aimed at raising efficiency and long-term sustainability of the pension system. Pension contribution rate, amount of budget transfer to the pension system, and total size of pension benefits in percent of GDP are found to exceed substantially levels typical for the OECD countries and emerging markets. Our major " bottleneck" is very low by international standards support ratio (i.e. number of contributors to pension fund per pensioner). Increase in the retirement age by 2 years for men and 5 years for women would bring life expectancy at retirement in Russia to the level typical for emerging markets. Provisional gain of the budget from this measure is estimated to vary from 1.4 to 2.3% of GDP. The objective of higher retirement age should be not budget gains but stabilization of replacement rate under forthcoming demographic crisis. Other measures suggested include in particular restoring basic pensions, fixing own sources of funds for each of the pension system tiers, and building barriers for running pension imbalances, and fostering late retirement for working aged.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document