Simulation of the combined effects of solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation, and volcanic forcing on stratospheric ozone changes in recent decades

Abstract. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) lidars, at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (MLO, 19.5° N, 155.6° W) and the JPL Table Mountain Facility (TMF, California, 34.5° N, 117.7° W), have been measuring vertical profiles of stratospheric ozone routinely since the early 1990's and late-1980s respectively. Interannual variability of ozone above these two sites was investigated using a multi-linear regression analysis on the deseasonalized monthly mean lidar and satellite time-series at 1 km intervals between 20 and 45 km from January 1995 to April 2011, a period of low volcanic aerosol loading. Explanatory variables representing the 11-yr solar cycle, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the Eliassen–Palm flux, and horizontal and vertical transport were used. A new proxy, the mid-latitude ozone depleting gas index, which shows a decrease with time as an outcome of the Montreal Protocol, was introduced and compared to the more commonly used linear trend method. The analysis also compares the lidar time-series and a merged time-series obtained from the space-borne stratospheric aerosol and gas experiment II, halogen occultation experiment, and Aura-microwave limb sounder instruments. The results from both lidar and satellite measurements are consistent with recent model simulations which propose changes in tropical upwelling. Additionally, at TMF the ozone depleting gas index explains as much variance as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the upper stratosphere. Over the past 17 yr a diminishing downward trend in ozone was observed before 2000 and a net increase, and sign of ozone recovery, is observed after 2005. Our results which include dynamical proxies suggest possible coupling between horizontal transport and the 11-yr solar cycle response, although a dataset spanning a period longer than one solar cycle is needed to confirm this result.

Download Full-text

Stratospheric ozone interannual variability (1995–2011) as observed by lidar and satellite at Mauna Loa Observatory, HI and Table Mountain Facility, CA

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-13-5033-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 5033-5047 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

G. Kirgis ◽

T. Leblanc ◽

I. S. McDermid ◽

T. D. Walsh

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Solar Cycle ◽

Interannual Variability ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Montreal Protocol ◽

Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽

Mauna Loa ◽

Table Mountain ◽

Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) lidars, at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (MLO, 19.5° N, 155.6° W) and the JPL Table Mountain Facility (TMF, California, 34.5° N, 117.7° W), have been measuring vertical profiles of stratospheric ozone routinely since the early 1990's and late-1980s respectively. Interannual variability of ozone above these two sites was investigated using a multi-linear regression analysis on the deseasonalised monthly mean lidar and satellite time-series at 1 km intervals between 20 and 45 km from January 1995 to April 2011, a period of low volcanic aerosol loading. Explanatory variables representing the 11 yr solar cycle, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the Eliassen-Palm flux, and horizontal and vertical transport were used. A new proxy, the mid-latitude Ozone Depleting Gas Index, which shows a decrease with time as an outcome of the Montreal Protocol, was introduced and compared to the more commonly used linear trend method. The analysis also compares the lidar time-series and a merged time-series obtained from the space-borne Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II, Halogen Occultation Experiment, and Aura-Microwave Limb Sounder instruments. The results from both lidar and satellite measurements are consistent with recent model simulations which propose changes in tropical upwelling. Additionally, at TMF the Ozone Depleting Gas Index explains as much variance as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the upper stratosphere. Over the past 17 yr a diminishing downward trend in ozone was observed before 2000 and a net increase, and sign of ozone recovery, is observed after 2005. Our results which include dynamical proxies suggest possible coupling between horizontal transport and the 11 yr solar cycle response, although a dataset spanning a period longer than one solar cycle is needed to confirm this result.

Download Full-text

Middle Atmosphere Temperature Changes Derived from SABER Observations during 2002-2020

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-20-1010.1 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

X. R. Zhao ◽

Z. Sheng ◽

H. Q. Shi ◽

L. B. Weng ◽

Y. He

Keyword(s):

Solar Cycle ◽

Middle Atmosphere ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Linear Trend ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Recovery Period ◽

Lower Thermosphere ◽

Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽

Atmosphere Temperature ◽

Temperature Responses

AbstractUsing temperature data measured by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument from February 2002 to March 2020, the temperature linear trend and temperature responses to the solar cycle (SC), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were investigated from 20 km to 110 km for the latitude range of 50°S-50°N. A four-component harmonic fit was used to remove the seasonal variation from the observed monthly temperature series. Multiple linear regression (MLR) was applied to analyze the linear trend, SC, QBO, and ENSO terms. In this study, the near-global mean temperature shows consistent cooling trends throughout the entire middle atmosphere, ranging from -0.28 to -0.97 K/decade. Additionally, it shows positive responses to the solar cycle, varying from -0.05 to 4.53 K/100sfu. A solar temperature response boundary between 50°S and 50°N is given, above which the atmospheric temperature is strongly affected by solar activity. The boundary penetrates deep below the stratopause to ~ 42 km over the tropical region and rises to higher altitudes with latitude. Temperature responses to the QBO and ENSO can be observed up to the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere. In the equatorial region, 40%-70% of the total variance is explained by QBO signals in the stratosphere and 30%-50% is explained by the solar signal in the upper middle atmosphere. Our results, obtained from 18-year SABER observations, are expected to be an updated reliable estimation of the middle atmosphere temperature variability for the stratospheric ozone recovery period.

Download Full-text

Analysis of Arctic Spring Ozone Anomaly in the Phases of QBO and 11-year Solar Cycle for 1979–2011

10.20944/preprints202104.0057.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yousuke Yamashita ◽

Hideharu Akiyoshi ◽

Masaaki Takahashi

Keyword(s):

Solar Cycle ◽

Climate Model ◽

Polar Vortex ◽

Reanalysis Data ◽

Early Spring ◽

The Arctic ◽

Negative Anomaly ◽

Late Winter ◽

Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽

Biennial Oscillation

Arctic ozone amount in winter to spring shows large year-to-year variation. This study investigates Arctic spring ozone in relation to the phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)/the 11-year solar cycle, using satellite observations, reanalysis data, and outputs of a chemistry climate model (CCM) during the period of 1979–2011. For this duration, we found that the composite mean of the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude total ozone in the QBO-westerly (QBO-W)/solar minimum (Smin) phase is slightly smaller than those averaged for the QBO-W/Smax and QBO-E/Smax years in March. An analysis of a passive ozone tracer in the CCM simulation indicates that this negative anomaly is primarily caused by transport. The negative anomaly is consistent with a weakening of the residual mean downward motion in the polar lower stratosphere. The contribution of chemical processes estimated using the column amount difference between ozone and the passive ozone tracer is between 10–20% of the total anomaly in March. The lower ozone levels in the Arctic spring during the QBO-W/Smin years are associated with a stronger Arctic polar vortex from late winter to early spring, which is linked to the reduced occurrence of sudden stratospheric warming in the winter during the QBO-W/Smin years.

Download Full-text

Quasi-biennial oscillation in variations of vertical distribution of midlatitude stratospheric ozone and aerosol

10.1117/12.723236 ◽

2006 ◽

Author(s):

Vladimir Burlakov ◽

Oleg Bazhenov ◽

Sergey Dolgii ◽

Andrey Elnikov ◽

Vladimir Zuev ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Vertical Distribution ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽

Biennial Oscillation

Download Full-text

Development of a climate record of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone from satellite remote sensing: evidence of an early recovery of global stratospheric ozone

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-12-3169-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 3169-3211

Author(s):

J. R. Ziemke ◽

S. Chandra

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

Steady Increase ◽

Ozone Monitoring Instrument ◽

Early Recovery ◽

Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽

Time Record ◽

The Tropics ◽

Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. Ozone data beginning October 2004 from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are used to evaluate the accuracy of the Cloud Slicing technique in effort to develop long data records of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and for studying their long-term changes. Using this technique, we have produced a 32-yr (1979–2010) long record of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone from the combined Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and OMI. The analyses of these time series suggest that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominant source of inter-annual variability of stratospheric ozone and is clearest in the Southern Hemisphere during the Aura time record with related inter-annual changes of 30–40 Dobson Units. Tropospheric ozone also indicates a QBO signal in the tropics with peak-to-peak changes varying from 2 to 7 DU. The stratospheric ozone record indicates a steady increase since the mid-1990's with current ozone levels comparable to the mid-1980's. This is earlier than predicted by many of the current climate models which suggest recovery to the mid-1980's levels by year 2020 or later.

Download Full-text

Connection between the Solar Cycle and the QBO: The Missing Link

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/1520-0442-13.2.328 ◽

2000 ◽

Vol 13 (2) ◽

pp. 328-338 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Murry Salby ◽

Patrick Callaghan

Keyword(s):

Solar Activity ◽

Solar Cycle ◽

Polar Vortex ◽

Polar Night ◽

Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽

Missing Link ◽

New Evidence ◽

Biennial Oscillation

Abstract Evidence of the solar cycle in stratospheric polar temperature rests on a connection to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial wind. New evidence reported here establishes a mechanism for how the solar signature in polar temperature follows from the QBO, which itself is shown to vary with the solar cycle. Equatorial westerlies below 30 mb vary systematically with solar activity, as do equatorial easterlies above 30 mb. Changes in their duration introduce a systematic drift into the QBO's phase relative to winter months, when the polar vortex is sensitive to equatorial wind. Corresponding changes in the polar-night vortex are consistent with the solar signature observed in wintertime records of polar temperature that have been stratified according to the QBO.

Download Full-text

Lidar observations of middle atmosphere temperature variability

Annales Geophysicae ◽

10.1007/s00585-995-0648-0 ◽

1995 ◽

Vol 13 (6) ◽

pp. 648-655 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

G. P. Gobbi ◽

C. Souprayen ◽

F. Congeduti ◽

G. Di Donfrancesco ◽

A. Adriani ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Solar Cycle ◽

Middle Atmosphere ◽

Atmospheric Temperature ◽

Temperature Variability ◽

Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽

Temperature Trends ◽

Atmosphere Temperature ◽

Reference Atmosphere ◽

Lidar Observations ◽

Biennial Oscillation

Abstract. We discuss 223 middle atmosphere lidar temperature observations. The record was collected at Frascati (42°N–13°E), during the 41-month period January 1989-May 1992, corresponding to the maximum of solar cycle 22. The choice of this interval was aimed at minimizing the temperature variability induced by the 11-year solar cycle. The average climatology over the 41-month period and comparison with a reference atmosphere (CIRA86) are presented. Monthly temperature variability over the full period, during opposite quasi-biennial oscillation phases and on a short-term scale (0.5–4 h), is analyzed. Results indicate the 50–55-km region as less affected by variability caused by the natural phenomena considered in the analysis. Due to this minimum in natural noise characterizing the atmospheric temperature just above the stratopause, observations of that region are well suited to the detection of possible temperature trends induced by industrial activities.

Download Full-text