Tropical Pacific decadal variability and global warming

2002 ◽  
Vol 29 (19) ◽  
pp. 24-1-24-4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy J. Bratcher ◽  
Benjamin S. Giese
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability

An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

2017 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-204
Author(s):  
Jian Zheng ◽  
Qinyu Liu ◽  
Chuanyang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability

ENSO-Like and ENSO-Induced Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability in CGCMs

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 1485-1501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jung Choi ◽  
Soon-Il An ◽  
Sang-Wook Yeh ◽  
Jin-Yi Yu
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Modulation Index ◽  
Subsurface Temperature ◽  
Enso Variability ◽  
Decadal Modulation ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability ◽  
La Nina

Abstract Outputs from coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are used in examining tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) and their relationships with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Herein TPDV is classified as either ENSO-induced TPDV (EIT) or ENSO-like TPDV (ELT), based on their correlations with a decadal modulation index of ENSO amplitude and spatial pattern. EIT is identified by the leading EOF mode of the low-pass filtered equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies and is highly correlated with the decadal ENSO modulation index. This mode is characterized by an east–west dipole structure along the equator. ELT is usually defined by the first EOF mode of subsurface temperature, of which the spatial structure is similar to ENSO. Generally, this mode is insignificantly correlated with the decadal modulation of ENSO. EIT closely interacts with the residuals induced by ENSO asymmetries, both of which show similar spatial structures. On the other hand, ELT is controlled by slowly varying ocean adjustments analogous to a recharge oscillator of ENSO. Both types of TPDV have similar spectral peaks on a decadal-to-interdecadal time scale. Interestingly, the variances of both types of TPDV depend on the strength of connection between El Niño–La Niña residuals and EIT, such that the strong two-way feedback between them enhances EIT and reduces ELT. The strength of the two-way feedback is also related to ENSO variability. The flavors of El Niño–La Niña with respect to changes in the tropical Pacific mean state tend to be well simulated when ENSO variability is larger in CGCMs. As a result, stronger ENSO variability leads to intensified interactive feedback between ENSO residuals and enhanced EIT in CGCMs.

Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and ENSO Precursor in CMIP5 Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 1023-1045
Author(s):  
Yingying Zhao ◽  
Emanuele Di Lorenzo ◽  
Daoxun Sun ◽  
Samantha Stevenson
Keyword(s):  
Decadal Variability ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The North ◽  
Enso Teleconnections ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
North And South

AbstractObservational analyses suggest that a significant fraction of the tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) (~60%–70%) is energized by the combined action of extratropical precursors of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) originating from the North and South Pacific. Specifically, the growth and decay of the basin-scale TPDV pattern (time scale = ~1.5–2 years) is linked to the following sequence: ENSO precursors (extratropics, growth phase) → ENSO (tropics, peak phase) → ENSO successors (extratropics, decay phase) resulting from ENSO teleconnections. This sequence of teleconnections is an important physical basis for Pacific climate predictability. Here we examine the TPDV and its connection to extratropical dynamics in 20 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). We find that most models (~80%) can simulate the observed spatial pattern (R > 0.6) and frequency characteristics of the TPDV. In 12 models, more than 65% of the basinwide Pacific decadal variability (PDV) originates from TPDV, which is comparable with observations (~70%). However, despite reproducing the basic spatial and temporal statistics, models underestimate the influence of the North and South Pacific ENSO precursors to the TPDV, and most of the models’ TPDV originates in the tropics. Only 35%–40% of the models reproduce the observed extratropical ENSO precursor patterns (R > 0.5). Models with a better representation of the ENSO precursors show 1) better basin-scale signatures of TPDV and 2) stronger ENSO teleconnections from/to the tropics that are consistent with observations. These results suggest that better representation of ENSO precursor dynamics in CMIP may lead to improved Pacific decadal variability dynamics and predictability.

Tropical pacific decadal variability in subsurface temperature

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 451-454
Author(s):  
Qinyu Liu ◽  
Lixiao Xu ◽  
Jiuyou Lu ◽  
Qi Wang
Keyword(s):  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Subsurface Temperature ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability

scholarly journals Modulation of tropical cyclones in the southeastern part of western North Pacific by tropical Pacific decadal variability

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 4475-4488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Liu ◽  
Wenjun Zhang ◽  
Xin Geng ◽  
Malte F. Stuecker ◽  
Fei-Fei Jin
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Southeastern Part ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability

Pacific Decadal Variability: The Tropical Pacific Mode and the North Pacific Mode*

2003 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. 1101-1120 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Wu ◽  
Z. Liu ◽  
R. Gallimore ◽  
R. Jacob ◽  
D. Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
The North ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

scholarly journals Implications of Both Statistical Equilibrium and Global Warming Simulations with CCSM3. Part I: On the Decadal Variability in the North Pacific Basin

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (20) ◽  
pp. 5277-5297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc d’Orgeville ◽  
W. Richard Peltier
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Basin

Abstract In the low-resolution version of the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), the modeled North Pacific decadal variability is demonstrated to be independent of the epoch for which a statistically steady control simulation is constructed, either preindustrial or modern; however, it is demonstrated to be significantly affected by the different global warming scenarios investigated. In the control simulations, the North Pacific basin is shown to be dominated by sea surface temperature (SST) variability with a time scale of approximately 20 yr. This mode of variability is in close accord with the observed characteristics of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). A detailed analysis of the statistical equilibrium runs is performed based on other model variables as well [sea surface salinity (SSS), barotropic circulation, freshwater and heat fluxes, wind stress curl, sea ice, and snow coverage]. These analyses confirm that the underlying mechanism of the PDO involves a basin-scale mode of ocean adjustment to changes of the atmospheric forcing associated with the Aleutian low pressure system. However, they also suggest that the observed sign reversal of the PDO arises from a feedback in the northern part of the basin. In this novel hypothesis, the advection to the Bering Sea of “spice” anomalies formed in the central and western Pacific sets up a typical 10-yr time scale for the triggering of the PDO reversal. In all of the global warming simulations described in this paper, the signal represented by the detrended SST variability in the North Pacific displays significant power at multidecadal frequencies. In these simulations, the natural North Pacific decadal variability, as characterized in the control simulations (the PDO), remains the leading mode of variability only for moderate forcing. If the warming is too strong, then the typical 20-yr time scale of the canonical PDO can no longer be detected, except in terms of SSS variability and only prior to a significant change that occurs in the Bering Strait Throughflow.

Pacific Decadal Variability in the View of Linear Equatorial Wave Theory*

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 203-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Emile-Geay ◽  
Mark A. Cane
Keyword(s):  
Shallow Water ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Wave Theory ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Wind Forcing ◽  
Closed Form Expression ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability ◽  
Equatorial Wave ◽  
Equatorial Thermocline

Abstract It has recently been proposed, within the framework of the linear shallow-water equations, that tropical Pacific decadal variability (PDV) can be accounted for by basin modes with eigenperiods of 10 to 20 yr, amplifying a midlatitude wind forcing with an essentially white spectrum. Here the authors use a different formalism of linear equatorial wave theory. The Green’s function is computed for the wind-forced response of a linear equatorial shallow-water ocean and use the earlier results of Cane and Moore to obtain a compact, closed form expression for the motion of the equatorial thermocline, which applies to all frequencies lower than seasonal. This expression is new and allows a systematic comparison of the effect of low- and high-latitude winds on the equatorial thermocline. At very low frequencies (decadal time scales), the planetary geostrophic solution used by Cessi and Louazel is recovered, as well as the equatorial wave solution of Liu, and a formal explanation for this convergence is given. Nonetheless, this more general solution leads one to a different interpretation of the results. In contrast to the aforementioned studies, the authors find that the equatorial thermocline is inherently more sensitive to local than to remote wind forcing and that planetary Rossby modes only weakly alter the spectral characteristics of the response. Tropical winds are able to generate a strong equatorial response with periods of 10 to 20 yr, while midlatitude winds can only do so for periods longer than about 50 yr. The results suggest that ocean basin modes are an unlikely explanation of decadal fluctuations in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature.

scholarly journals Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and the Subtropical–Tropical Cells

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (23) ◽  
pp. 5163-5178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katja Lohmann ◽  
Mojib Latif
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Pacific Decadal Variability ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Decadal Mode

Abstract The decadal-scale variability in the tropical Pacific has been analyzed herein by means of observations and numerical model simulations. The two leading modes of the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the central western Pacific are a decadal mode with a period of about 10 yr and the ENSO mode with a dominant period of about 4 yr. The SST anomaly pattern of the decadal mode is ENSO like. The decadal mode, however, explains most variance in the western equatorial Pacific and off the equator. A simulation with an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) forced by reanalysis data is used to explore the origin of the decadal mode. It is found that the variability of the shallow subtropical–tropical overturning cells is an important factor in driving the decadal mode. This is supported by results from a multicentury integration with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) that realistically simulates tropical Pacific decadal variability. Finally, the sensitivity of the shallow subtropical–tropical overturning cells to greenhouse warming is discussed by analyzing the results of a scenario integration with the same CGCM.

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