scholarly journals Evaluating climate change over the Colorado River basin using regional climate models

2011 ◽  
Vol 116 (D13) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanhong Gao ◽  
Julie A. Vano ◽  
Chunmei Zhu ◽  
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Colorado River Basin

scholarly journals Using a Hydrologic Model to Assess the Performance of Regional Climate Models in a Semi-Arid Watershed in Brazil

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Santos ◽  
Felizardo. Rocha ◽  
Tiago Ramos ◽  
Lincoln Alves ◽  
Marcos Mateus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

This study assessed the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Paraguaçu river basin, northeastern Brazil. Hydrological impact simulations were conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for 2020–2040. Precipitation and surface air temperature projections from two Regional Climate Models (Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) based on IPCC5—RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used as inputs after first applying two bias correction methods (linear scaling—LS and distribution mapping—DM). The analysis of the impact of climate change on streamflow was done by comparing the maximum, average and reference (Q90) flows of the simulated and observed streamflow records. This study found that both methods were able to correct the climate projection bias, but the DM method showed larger distortion when applied to future scenarios. Climate projections from the Eta-HadGEM2-ES (LS) model showed significant reductions of mean monthly streamflow for all time periods under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Eta-MIROC5 (LS) model showed a lower reduction of the simulated mean monthly streamflow under RCP 4.5 and a decrease of streamflow under RCP 8.5, similar to the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model results. The results of this study provide information for guiding future water resource management in the Paraguaçu River Basin and show that the bias correction algorithm also plays a significant role when assessing climate model estimates and their applicability to hydrological modelling.

scholarly journals Multi-Criteria Decision Framework to Evaluate Bias Corrected Climate Change Projections in the Piracicaba River Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camila Billerbeck ◽  
Ligia Monteiro da Silva ◽  
Silvana Susko Marcellini ◽  
Arisvaldo Méllo Junior
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Piracicaba River

Abstract Regional climate models (RCM) are the main tools for climate change impacts assessment in hydrological studies. These models, however, often show biases when compared to historical observations. Bias Correction (BC) are useful techniques to improve climate projection outputs. This study presents a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to compare combinations of RCM with selected BC methods. The comparison was based on the modified Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE’). The criteria evaluated the general capability of models in reproducing the observed data main statistics. Other criteria evaluated were the relevant aspects for hydrological studies, such as seasonality, dry and wet periods. We applied four BC methods in four RCM monthly rainfall outputs from 1961 to 2005 in the Piracicaba river basin. The Linear Scaling (LS) method showed higher improvements in the general performance of the models. The RCM Eta-HadGEM2-ES, corrected with Standardized Reconstruction (SdRc) method, achieved the best results when compared to the observed precipitation. The bias corrected projected monthly precipitation (2006-2098) preserved the main signal of climate change effects when compared to the original outputs regarding annual rainfall. However, SdRc produced significant decrease in monthly average rainfall, higher than 45% for July, August and September for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

scholarly journals Comparing Bias Correction Methods Used in Downscaling Precipitation and Temperature from Regional Climate Models: A Case Study from the Kaidu River Basin in Western China

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Luo ◽  
Tie Liu ◽  
Fanhao Meng ◽  
Yongchao Duan ◽  
Amaury Frankl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Modelling ◽  
Western China ◽  
Kaidu River ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

The systemic biases of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) impede their application in regional hydrological climate-change effects analysis and lead to errors. As a consequence, bias correction has become a necessary prerequisite for the study of climate change. This paper compares the performance of available bias correction methods that focus on the performance of precipitation and temperature projections. The hydrological effects of these correction methods are evaluated by the modelled discharges of the Kaidu River Basin. The results show that all used methods improve the performance of the original RCM precipitation and temperature simulations across a number of levels. The corrected results obtained by precipitation correction methods demonstrate larger diversities than those produced by the temperature correction methods. The performance of hydrological modelling is highly influenced by the choice of precipitation correction methods. Furthermore, no substantial differences can be identified from the results of the temperature-corrected methods. The biases from input data are often greater from the works of hydrological modelling. The suitability of these approaches depends upon the regional context and the RCM model, while their application procedure and a number of results can be adapted from region to region.

scholarly journals Observed and simulated climate and climate change in the lower Neretva river basin

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marjana Gajić-Čapka ◽  
Ivan Güttler ◽  
Ksenija Cindrić ◽  
Čedo Branković
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Yield Production ◽  
Drinking Water Resources ◽  
The Mean

Abstract The lower Neretva river basin includes a fertile valley at the estuary into the Adriatic Sea, where intense agricultural production occurs, and the higher terrain where drinking water resources exist. To provide input for the further assessment of crop-yield production and hydrological risks, climate and climate change were analysed using the Opuzen station air temperature and total precipitation data for the 1961–2015 period. Both historical and future climates (2021–2050) were assessed based on simulations of three regional climate models (RCMs). The RCMs were forced by the observed concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from 1951 to 2000, and the IPCC A1B scenario of the GHG emissions was applied from 2001 onwards. The models were compared with the observations, and two bias adjustment methods were evaluated. The results generally showed a significant increase in the mean annual and seasonal temperature and a weak decreasing trend in annual and seasonal precipitation. Projections revealed a predominant increase in the mean temperature by the mid-21st century for all three RCMs (between 0.5 and 3.5 °C). The precipitation changed by between −60 and +60% throughout the year for the different models, although the changes generally were not statistically significant.

Increased Temperatures Overwhelm Precipitation Changes Leading to Streamflow Declines in the Colorado River Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristen Whitney ◽  
Enrique Vivoni ◽  
Theodore Bohn ◽  
Zhaocheng Wang ◽  
Mu Xiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Grand Canyon ◽  
Colorado River Basin ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Infiltration Capacity

<p>The Colorado River Basin (CRB) has experienced widespread and prolonged drought in the 21<sup>st</sup> century with recent precipitation (<em>P</em>) up to 25% below historical means and air temperature (<em>T</em>) up to 0.8 <sup>o</sup>C warmer. The extent that continued warming will lead to streamflow (<em>Q</em>) decline is unclear given the high interannual variability of P. Here we explore physically plausible ways that climate change could impact <em>Q</em> using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. We integrated advances in VIC using Landsat- and MODIS-based products to produce more realistic land surface conditions and used this setup to simulate long-range <em>Q</em> projections. Meteorological datasets were sourced from gridded daily observations (1950-2013) and downscaled historical (1950-2005) and future projections (2006-2099) derived from multiple CMIP5 models under a low and a high emission scenario to explore forcing uncertainties and cases where <em>P</em> increase could offset warming. We compared the impacts of anticipated climate change on hydrologic responses in subbasins key for water management to gauge their importance for basin-wide water budgets and how these relationships could evolve in time, as this has been a largely unexplored aspect in the CRB. Results showed that spatial gradients in seasonal <em>P</em> changes led to contrasting seasonal responses in runoff (<em>R</em>) across the CRB. Whereas most of the Upper Basin had a shift to greater <em>R</em> during the winter, summer <em>R</em> declined over most of the CRB due to heightened evapotranspiration in the northwest (Green, Upper Colorado, Glen Canyon, and Grand Canyon subbasins) and large <em>P </em>decline in the southeast (San Juan, Little Colorado, and Gila subbasins). The strength of seasonal runoff signals across different climate models and their impacts to annual <em>Q</em> were dependent on subbasin area and emission scenario. Annual <em>Q</em> at the CRB outlet declined in most cases, however, reflecting the pervasive drying effect of warming.</p>

scholarly journals Water Budgets of Managed Forests in Northeast Germany under Climate Change—Results from a Model Study on Forest Monitoring Sites

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 2403
Author(s):  
Daniel Ziche ◽  
Winfried Riek ◽  
Alexander Russ ◽  
Rainer Hentschel ◽  
Jan Martin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Realistic Model ◽  
Forest Monitoring ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Historical Time ◽  
Time Period

To develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of forests to drought, it is necessary to estimate specific water balances in sites and to estimate their development with climate change scenarios. We quantified the water balance of seven forest monitoring sites in northeast Germany for the historical time period 1961–2019, and for climate change projections for the time period 2010–2100. We used the LWF-BROOK90 hydrological model forced with historical data, and bias-adjusted data from two models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) downscaled with regional climate models under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. Site-specific monitoring data were used to give a realistic model input and to calibrate and validate the model. The results revealed significant trends (evapotranspiration, dry days (actual/potential transpiration < 0.7)) toward drier conditions within the historical time period and demonstrate the extreme conditions of 2018 and 2019. Under RCP8.5, both models simulate an increase in evapotranspiration and dry days. The response of precipitation to climate change is ambiguous, with increasing precipitation with one model. Under RCP2.6, both models do not reveal an increase in drought in 2071–2100 compared to 1990–2019. The current temperature increase fits RCP8.5 simulations, suggesting that this scenario is more realistic than RCP2.6.

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