scholarly journals Observed and simulated climate and climate change in the lower Neretva river basin

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marjana Gajić-Čapka ◽  
Ivan Güttler ◽  
Ksenija Cindrić ◽  
Čedo Branković
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Yield Production ◽  
Drinking Water Resources ◽  
The Mean

Abstract The lower Neretva river basin includes a fertile valley at the estuary into the Adriatic Sea, where intense agricultural production occurs, and the higher terrain where drinking water resources exist. To provide input for the further assessment of crop-yield production and hydrological risks, climate and climate change were analysed using the Opuzen station air temperature and total precipitation data for the 1961–2015 period. Both historical and future climates (2021–2050) were assessed based on simulations of three regional climate models (RCMs). The RCMs were forced by the observed concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from 1951 to 2000, and the IPCC A1B scenario of the GHG emissions was applied from 2001 onwards. The models were compared with the observations, and two bias adjustment methods were evaluated. The results generally showed a significant increase in the mean annual and seasonal temperature and a weak decreasing trend in annual and seasonal precipitation. Projections revealed a predominant increase in the mean temperature by the mid-21st century for all three RCMs (between 0.5 and 3.5 °C). The precipitation changed by between −60 and +60% throughout the year for the different models, although the changes generally were not statistically significant.

scholarly journals Using a Hydrologic Model to Assess the Performance of Regional Climate Models in a Semi-Arid Watershed in Brazil

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Santos ◽  
Felizardo. Rocha ◽  
Tiago Ramos ◽  
Lincoln Alves ◽  
Marcos Mateus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

This study assessed the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Paraguaçu river basin, northeastern Brazil. Hydrological impact simulations were conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for 2020–2040. Precipitation and surface air temperature projections from two Regional Climate Models (Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) based on IPCC5—RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used as inputs after first applying two bias correction methods (linear scaling—LS and distribution mapping—DM). The analysis of the impact of climate change on streamflow was done by comparing the maximum, average and reference (Q90) flows of the simulated and observed streamflow records. This study found that both methods were able to correct the climate projection bias, but the DM method showed larger distortion when applied to future scenarios. Climate projections from the Eta-HadGEM2-ES (LS) model showed significant reductions of mean monthly streamflow for all time periods under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Eta-MIROC5 (LS) model showed a lower reduction of the simulated mean monthly streamflow under RCP 4.5 and a decrease of streamflow under RCP 8.5, similar to the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model results. The results of this study provide information for guiding future water resource management in the Paraguaçu River Basin and show that the bias correction algorithm also plays a significant role when assessing climate model estimates and their applicability to hydrological modelling.

scholarly journals Multi-Criteria Decision Framework to Evaluate Bias Corrected Climate Change Projections in the Piracicaba River Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camila Billerbeck ◽  
Ligia Monteiro da Silva ◽  
Silvana Susko Marcellini ◽  
Arisvaldo Méllo Junior
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Piracicaba River

Abstract Regional climate models (RCM) are the main tools for climate change impacts assessment in hydrological studies. These models, however, often show biases when compared to historical observations. Bias Correction (BC) are useful techniques to improve climate projection outputs. This study presents a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to compare combinations of RCM with selected BC methods. The comparison was based on the modified Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE’). The criteria evaluated the general capability of models in reproducing the observed data main statistics. Other criteria evaluated were the relevant aspects for hydrological studies, such as seasonality, dry and wet periods. We applied four BC methods in four RCM monthly rainfall outputs from 1961 to 2005 in the Piracicaba river basin. The Linear Scaling (LS) method showed higher improvements in the general performance of the models. The RCM Eta-HadGEM2-ES, corrected with Standardized Reconstruction (SdRc) method, achieved the best results when compared to the observed precipitation. The bias corrected projected monthly precipitation (2006-2098) preserved the main signal of climate change effects when compared to the original outputs regarding annual rainfall. However, SdRc produced significant decrease in monthly average rainfall, higher than 45% for July, August and September for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

scholarly journals Comparing Bias Correction Methods Used in Downscaling Precipitation and Temperature from Regional Climate Models: A Case Study from the Kaidu River Basin in Western China

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Luo ◽  
Tie Liu ◽  
Fanhao Meng ◽  
Yongchao Duan ◽  
Amaury Frankl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Modelling ◽  
Western China ◽  
Kaidu River ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

The systemic biases of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) impede their application in regional hydrological climate-change effects analysis and lead to errors. As a consequence, bias correction has become a necessary prerequisite for the study of climate change. This paper compares the performance of available bias correction methods that focus on the performance of precipitation and temperature projections. The hydrological effects of these correction methods are evaluated by the modelled discharges of the Kaidu River Basin. The results show that all used methods improve the performance of the original RCM precipitation and temperature simulations across a number of levels. The corrected results obtained by precipitation correction methods demonstrate larger diversities than those produced by the temperature correction methods. The performance of hydrological modelling is highly influenced by the choice of precipitation correction methods. Furthermore, no substantial differences can be identified from the results of the temperature-corrected methods. The biases from input data are often greater from the works of hydrological modelling. The suitability of these approaches depends upon the regional context and the RCM model, while their application procedure and a number of results can be adapted from region to region.

scholarly journals Water Budgets of Managed Forests in Northeast Germany under Climate Change—Results from a Model Study on Forest Monitoring Sites

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 2403
Author(s):  
Daniel Ziche ◽  
Winfried Riek ◽  
Alexander Russ ◽  
Rainer Hentschel ◽  
Jan Martin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Realistic Model ◽  
Forest Monitoring ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Historical Time ◽  
Time Period

To develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of forests to drought, it is necessary to estimate specific water balances in sites and to estimate their development with climate change scenarios. We quantified the water balance of seven forest monitoring sites in northeast Germany for the historical time period 1961–2019, and for climate change projections for the time period 2010–2100. We used the LWF-BROOK90 hydrological model forced with historical data, and bias-adjusted data from two models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) downscaled with regional climate models under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. Site-specific monitoring data were used to give a realistic model input and to calibrate and validate the model. The results revealed significant trends (evapotranspiration, dry days (actual/potential transpiration < 0.7)) toward drier conditions within the historical time period and demonstrate the extreme conditions of 2018 and 2019. Under RCP8.5, both models simulate an increase in evapotranspiration and dry days. The response of precipitation to climate change is ambiguous, with increasing precipitation with one model. Under RCP2.6, both models do not reveal an increase in drought in 2071–2100 compared to 1990–2019. The current temperature increase fits RCP8.5 simulations, suggesting that this scenario is more realistic than RCP2.6.

scholarly journals Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 673-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Colmet-Daage ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Sophie Ricci ◽  
Cécile Llovel ◽  
Valérie Borrell Estupina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981–2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document