Semi-empirical versus process-based sea-level projections for the twenty-first century

AbstractThe nineteenth-century experiences of yellow fever epidemics in New Orleans and Norfolk present historical parallels for how those cities, and others, are experiencing existential threats from climate change and sea level rise in the twenty-first century. In particular, the nineteenth-century “sanitary reform” movement can be interpreted as a model for challenges facing twenty-first-century “climate resilience” initiatives, including denialism and political obfuscation of scientific debates as well as tensions between short-term profit and the cost of long-term infrastructure investments and between individualism and communitarianism. The history of sanitary reform suggests that, at least in the United States, climate resilience initiatives will advance largely on a regional basis through extended local debates around these and other challenges until resilient infrastructure and practices are taken for granted, much as sanitary waterworks and sewers are today.

Download Full-text

The ability of societies to adapt to twenty-first-century sea-level rise

Nature Climate Change ◽

10.1038/s41558-018-0176-z ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 8 (7) ◽

pp. 570-578 ◽

Cited By ~ 51

Author(s):

Jochen Hinkel ◽

Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts ◽

Sally Brown ◽

Jose A. Jiménez ◽

Daniel Lincke ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

First Century ◽

Twenty First Century

Download Full-text

Scenarios of Twenty-First Century Mean Sea Level Rise at Tide-Gauge Stations Across Canada

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN ◽

10.1080/07055900.2020.1792404 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 58 (4) ◽

pp. 287-301

Author(s):

Guoqi Han ◽

Zhimin Ma ◽

Aimée B.A. Slangen

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

First Century ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

Twenty First Century

Download Full-text

Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-14-00453.1 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 28 (2) ◽

pp. 838-852 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

Christopher M. Little ◽

Radley M. Horton ◽

Robert E. Kopp ◽

Michael Oppenheimer ◽

Stan Yip

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Model Uncertainty ◽

Internal Variability ◽

Climate System ◽

First Century ◽

The Arctic ◽

Management Approach ◽

Local Risk ◽

Twenty First Century ◽

Global And Local

Abstract The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

Download Full-text

Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century

Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences ◽

10.1098/rsta.2010.0291 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 369 (1934) ◽

pp. 161-181 ◽

Cited By ~ 296

Author(s):

Robert J. Nicholls ◽

Natasha Marinova ◽

Jason A. Lowe ◽

Sally Brown ◽

Pier Vellinga ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Temperature Rise ◽

Full Range ◽

Ice Sheets ◽

Time Frame ◽

First Century ◽

Climate Mitigation ◽

Twenty First Century ◽

The Impact

The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m—the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4°C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed.

Download Full-text

A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the twenty-first century

Climate Dynamics ◽

10.1007/s00382-009-0738-x ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 36 (9-10) ◽

pp. 2015-2033 ◽

Cited By ~ 65

Author(s):

Anne K. Pardaens ◽

J. M. Gregory ◽

J. A. Lowe

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

First Century ◽

Factors Influencing ◽

Model Study ◽

Regional Sea Level ◽

Twenty First Century ◽

Projected Changes

Download Full-text

Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century

Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences ◽

10.1098/rsta.2006.1754 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 364 (1841) ◽

pp. 1073-1095 ◽

Cited By ~ 179

Author(s):

Robert J Nicholls ◽

Richard S.J Tol

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Global Analysis ◽

Cost Benefit ◽

Atmospheric Temperature ◽

Global Scale ◽

First Century ◽

Twenty First Century ◽

Sres Scenarios ◽

The Impact

Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 ‘future worlds’), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost–benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

Download Full-text