scholarly journals Record statistics of bursts signals the onset of acceleration towards failure

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktória Kádár ◽  
Gergő Pál ◽  
Ferenc Kun
Keyword(s):  
Brittle Fracture ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Failure Process ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Catastrophic Failure ◽  
Time To Failure ◽  
High Importance ◽  
Fiber Bundle Model ◽  
Event Series ◽  
Record Statistics

AbstractForecasting the imminent catastrophic failure has a high importance for a large variety of systems from the collapse of engineering constructions, through the emergence of landslides and earthquakes, to volcanic eruptions. Failure forecast methods predict the lifetime of the system based on the time-to-failure power law of observables describing the final acceleration towards failure. We show that the statistics of records of the event series of breaking bursts, accompanying the failure process, provides a powerful tool to detect the onset of acceleration, as an early warning of the impending catastrophe. We focus on the fracture of heterogeneous materials using a fiber bundle model, which exhibits transitions between perfectly brittle, quasi-brittle, and ductile behaviors as the amount of disorder is increased. Analyzing the lifetime of record size bursts, we demonstrate that the acceleration starts at a characteristic record rank, below which record breaking slows down due to the dominance of disorder in fracturing, while above it stress redistribution gives rise to an enhanced triggering of bursts and acceleration of the dynamics. The emergence of this signal depends on the degree of disorder making both highly brittle fracture of low disorder materials, and ductile fracture of strongly disordered ones, unpredictable.

A Bayesian Estimation of Reliability Measures of Stepwise Exponential Distribution System

1991 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. H. Hu
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Estimation ◽  
Exponential Distribution ◽  
Distribution System ◽  
Failure Process ◽  
Reliability Function ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Time To Failure ◽  
Reliability Measures ◽  
In Series ◽  
Mean Time

Abstract This paper presents an analysis method for reliability measures of a system with step changes in failure and repair rates. Both failure and repair time have exponential function of time. Such a system is called a stepwise exponential distribution system. This kind of failure process can take place in various equipments. This paper deals with the system having components in series arrangement. Bayesian statistics is used in defining prior and posterior probability density functions of failure and repair rates. These functions provide information for the estimation of reliability measures: 1) failure and repair rates, 2) mean time to failure, 3) mean time to repair, 4) reliability function and 5) availability. A sample problem is given to illustrate the methodology. The Bayesian estimation of the stepwise exponential distribution model is useful in the planning of equipment predictive maintenance.

Characterization of the failure process in composite materials by the Fiber Bundle Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 ◽  
pp. 30-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Hader ◽  
I. Achik ◽  
A. Lahyani ◽  
K. Sbiaai ◽  
Y. Boughaleb
Keyword(s):  
Composite Materials ◽  
Fiber Bundle ◽  
Failure Process ◽  
Fiber Bundle Model

The role that fracture plays during ice failure

1991 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 752-759
Author(s):  
R. W. Marcellus ◽  
D. N. Heuff
Keyword(s):  
Brittle Fracture ◽  
Brittle Failure ◽  
Failure Load ◽  
Failure Process ◽  
Fracture Mechanisms ◽  
Load Path ◽  
Structure Interaction ◽  
General Overview ◽  
Ice Strength ◽  
Ice Failure

Brittle fracture of ice plays an extremely interesting and complex role in the ice failure process. This paper provides a general overview of the behavior and structure of ice on both the microscopic and macroscopic levels. The idea that the failure load on any type of ice is dependent on the load path that the ice experiences prior to failure is discussed. This paper also provides a general overview of the different fracture mechanisms that occur during ice failure and introduces a new concept for describing the crushing process. Key words: ice, fracture, brittle, failure, ice-structure interaction, ice strength, new crushing concept, microcrack, macrocrack.

The time to failure of fiber bundles subjected to random loads

1979 ◽  
Vol 11 (03) ◽  
pp. 527-541 ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard M. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Simple Model ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Failure Time ◽  
Constant Load ◽  
Asymptotic Distributions ◽  
Asymptotic Independence ◽  
Time To Failure ◽  
Random Load ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Wave Induced

The effect on cable reliability of random cyclic loading such as that generated by the wave-induced rocking of ocean vessels deploying these cables is examined. A simple model yielding exact formulas is first explored. In this model, the failure time of a single fiber under a constant load is assumed to be exponentially distributed, and the random loadings are a two-state stationary Markov process. The effect of load on failure time is assumed to follow a power law breakdown rule. In this setting, exact results concerning the distribution of bundle or cable failure time, and especially the mean failure time, are obtained. Where the fluctuations in load are frequent relative to bundle life, such as may occur in long-lived cables, it is shown that randomness in load tends to decrease mean bundle life, but it is suggested that the reduction in mean life often can be restored by modestly reducing the base load on the structure or by modestly increasing the number of elements in the bundle. In later pages this simple model is extended to cover a broader range of materials and random loadings. Asymptotic distributions and mean failure times are given where fibers follow a Weibull distribution of failure time under constant load, and loads that are general non-negative stationary processes subject only to some mild condition of asymptotic independence. When the power law breakdown exponent is large, the mean time to bundle failure depends heavily on the exact form of the marginal probability distribution for the random load process and cannot be summarized by the first two moments of this distribution alone.

scholarly journals Brittle Creep Failure, Critical Behavior, and Time-to-Failure Prediction of Concrete under Uniaxial Compression

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yingchong Wang ◽  
Na Zhou ◽  
Fuqing Chang ◽  
Shengwang Hao
Keyword(s):  
Creep Rate ◽  
Uniaxial Compression ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Critical Behavior ◽  
Creep Process ◽  
Time To Failure ◽  
Secondary Creep ◽  
Creep Failure ◽  
Brittle Creep ◽  
Secondary Creep Rate

Understanding the time-dependent brittle deformation behavior of concrete as a main building material is fundamental for the lifetime prediction and engineering design. Herein, we present the experimental measures of brittle creep failure, critical behavior, and the dependence of time-to-failure, on the secondary creep rate of concrete under sustained uniaxial compression. A complete evolution process of creep failure is achieved. Three typical creep stages are observed, including the primary (decelerating), secondary (steady state creep regime), and tertiary creep (accelerating creep) stages. The time-to-failure shows sample-specificity although all samples exhibit a similar creep process. All specimens exhibit a critical power-law behavior with an exponent of −0.51 ± 0.06, approximately equal to the theoretical value of −1/2. All samples have a long-term secondary stage characterized by a constant strain rate that dominates the lifetime of a sample. The average creep rate expressed by the total creep strain over the lifetime (tf-t0) for each specimen shows a power-law dependence on the secondary creep rate with an exponent of −1. This could provide a clue to the prediction of the time-to-failure of concrete, based on the monitoring of the creep behavior at the steady stage.

scholarly journals Percolating magmas in three dimensions

2007 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 743-755 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Gaonac'h ◽  
S. Lovejoy ◽  
M. Carrier-Nunes ◽  
D. Schertzer ◽  
F. Lepine
Keyword(s):  
Percolation Threshold ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Critical Strain ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Explosive Volcanism ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Long Range Correlations ◽  
Critical Thresholds ◽  
Classical Models ◽  
External Stresses

Abstract. The classical models of volcanic eruptions assume that they originate as a consequence of critical stresses or critical strain rates being exceeded in the magma followed by catastrophic fragmentation. In a recent paper (Gaonac'h et al., 2003) we proposed an additional mechanism based on the properties of complex networks of overlapping bubbles; that extreme multibubble coalescence could lead to catastrophic changes in the magma rheology at a critical vesicularity. This is possible because at a critical vesicularity Pc (the percolation threshold), even in the absence of external stresses the magma fragments. By considering 2-D percolation with the (observed) extreme power law bubble distributions, we showed numerically that P2c had the apparently realistic value ≈0.7. The properties of percolating systems are, however, significantly different in 2-D and 3-D. In this paper, we discuss various new features relevant to 3-D percolation and compare the model predictions with empirical data on explosive volcanism. The most important points are a) bubbles and magma have different 3-D critical percolation points; we show numerically that with power law bubble distributions that the important magma percolation threshold P3c,m has the high value ≈0.97±0.01, b) a generic result of 3-D percolation is that the resulting primary fragments will have power law distributions with exponent B3f≈1.186±0.002, near the empirical value (for pumice) ≈1.1±0.1; c) we review the relevant percolation literature and point out that the elastic properties may have lower – possibly more realistic – critical vesicularities relevant to magmas; d) we explore the implications of long range correlations (power law bubble distributions) and discuss this in combination with bubble anisotropy; e) we propose a new kind of intermediate "elliptical" dimensional percolation involving differentially elongated bubbles and show that it can lead to somewhat lower critical thresholds. These percolation mechanisms for catastrophically weakening magma would presumably operate in conjunction with the classical critical stress and critical strain mechanisms. We conclude that percolation theory provides an attractive theoretical framework for understanding highly vesicular magma.

scholarly journals Time-scale invariant changes in atmospheric radon concentration and crustal strain prior to a large earthquake

2007 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Kawada ◽  
H. Nagahama ◽  
Y. Omori ◽  
Y. Yasuoka ◽  
T. Ishikawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Law ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Radon Concentration ◽  
Large Earthquake ◽  
Irreversible Thermodynamic ◽  
Time To Failure ◽  
Scale Invariant ◽  
Crustal Strain ◽  
Kobe Earthquake ◽  
Atmospheric Radon

Abstract. Prior to large earthquakes (e.g. 1995 Kobe earthquake, Japan), an increase in the atmospheric radon concentration is observed, and this increase in the rate follows a power-law of the time-to-earthquake (time-to-failure). This phenomenon corresponds to the increase in the radon migration in crust and the exhalation into atmosphere. An irreversible thermodynamic model including time-scale invariance clarifies that the increases in the pressure of the advecting radon and permeability (hydraulic conductivity) in the crustal rocks are caused by the temporal changes in the power-law of the crustal strain (or cumulative Benioff strain), which is associated with damage evolution such as microcracking or changing porosity. As the result, the radon flux and the atmospheric radon concentration can show a temporal power-law increase. The concentration of atmospheric radon can be used as a proxy for the seismic precursory processes associated with crustal dynamics.

Analysis and genetic algorithm optimization of a series system with K-out-of-(n + m): G mixed standby subsystems subject to imperfect switching and elapsed repair time

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Neama Temraz
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Exponential Distribution ◽  
Failure Process ◽  
Repair Time ◽  
Allocation Problem ◽  
General Distribution ◽  
Time To Failure ◽  
Redundancy Allocation Problem ◽  
Redundancy Allocation ◽  
Content Type

PurposeIn this paper, a new general system consisted of l subsystems connected in series is introduced. Each subsystem connected in K-out-of-(n + m): G mixed standby configuration.Design/methodology/approachThe lifetime of the system's units is assumed to be exponentially distributed and there is elapsed repair time with general distribution. The switch in each subsystem is assumed to be imperfect with the failure process follows an exponential distribution. A genetic algorithm is applied to the system to obtain the optimal solution of the system and solve the redundancy allocation problem.FindingsAnalysis of availability, reliability, mean time to failure and steady-state availability of the system is introduced. The measures of the system are discussed in special two cases when the elapsed repair time follows gamma and exponential distribution. An optimization problem with bi-objective functions is introduced to minimize the cost of the system and maximize the reliability function. A numeric application is introduced to show the implementation and effectiveness of the system and redundancy allocation problem.Originality/valueA new general K-out-of-(n + m): G mixed standby model with elapsed repair time and imperfect switching is introduced.

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