scholarly journals Methods for long-term forecasting of water availability in spring floods (r. Arpa – p. Jermuk)

2021 ◽  
Vol 333 ◽  
pp. 02007
Author(s):  
Varduhi Margaryan ◽  
Ekaterina Gaidukova ◽  
Gennady Tsibulskii
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Multivariate Correlation ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Satisfactory Quality

The article discusses the main physical and geographical factors, affecting the runoff of spring floods in the Arpa rivers catchment in the station Jermuk. Also the article discusses the development of a methodology for long-term forecasting of runoff volume of spring flood (WIV–VI) of river Arpa, station Jermuk. The study used data of water discharges of Arpa river catchment (station Jermuk), air temperature, precipitation, reserve water in snow at meteostation Jermuk. A linear correlation was also revealed between the values of the annual runoff and runoff of spring floods in Arpa river catchment, which can be used to predict the annual runoff. To predict the volume of spring flood runoff, regression method and obtained multivariate correlation dependencies. Assessment of statistical significance and stability the proposed models showed their «satisfactory» quality and the possibility of using in the practice of engineering and hydrological forecasts.

The «rainfall-runoff» system and its long-term fluctuations in the Siverskyi Donets River Basin (Ukraine)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanna Bolbot ◽  
Vasyl Grebin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Current Period

<p>The current patterns estimation of the water regime under climate change is one of the most urgent tasks in Ukraine and the world. Such changes are determined by fluctuations in the main climatic characteristics - precipitation and air temperature, which are defined the value of evaporation. These parameters influence on the annual runoff distribution and long-term runoff fluctuations. In particular, the annual precipitation redistribution is reflected in the corresponding changes in the river runoff.<br>The assessment of the current state and nature of changes in precipitation and river runoff of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin was made by comparing the current period (1991-2018) with the period of the climatological normal (1961-1990).<br>In general, for this area, it was defined the close relationship between the amount of precipitation and the annual runoff. Against the background of insignificant (about 1%) increase of annual precipitation in recent decades, it was revealed their redistribution by seasons and separate months. There is a decrease in precipitation in the cold period (November-February). This causes (along with other factors) a decrease in the amount of snow and, accordingly, the spring flood runoff. There are frequent cases of unexpressed spring floods of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin. The runoff during March-April (the period of spring flood within the Ukrainian part of the basin) decreased by almost a third.<br>The increase of precipitation during May-June causes a corresponding (insignificant) increase in runoff in these months. The shift of the maximum monthly amount of precipitation from May (for the period 1961-1990) to June (in the current period) is observed.<br>There is a certain threat to water supply in the region due to the shift in the minimum monthly amount of precipitation in the warm period from October to August. Compared with October, there is a higher air temperature and, accordingly, higher evaporation in August, which reduces the runoff. Such a situation is solved by rational water resources management of the basin. The possibility of replenishing water resources in the basin through the transfer runoff from the Dnieper (Dnieper-Siverskyi Donets channel) and the annual runoff redistribution in the reservoir system causes some increase in the river runoff of summer months in recent decades. This is also contributed by the activities of the river basin management structures, which control the maintenance water users' of minimum ecological flow downstream the water intakes and hydraulic structures in the rivers of the basin.<br>Therefore, in the period of current climate change, the annual runoff distribution of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin has undergone significant changes, which is related to the annual precipitation redistribution and anthropogenic load on the basin.</p>

scholarly journals Analysis of global water vapour trends from satellite measurements in the visible spectral range

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 11761-11796 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Mieruch ◽  
S. Noël ◽  
H. Bovensmann ◽  
J. P. Burrows
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Water Vapour ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Visible Spectral Range ◽  
Optical Absorption Spectroscopy ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Scanning Imaging ◽  
Global Water

Abstract. Global water vapour total column amounts have been retrieved from spectral data provided by the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) flying on ERS-2, which was launched in April 1995, and the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) onboard ENVISAT launched in March 2002. For this purpose the Air Mass Corrected Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (AMC-DOAS) approach has been used. The combination of the data from both instruments provides us with a long-term global data set spanning more than 11 years with the potential of extension up to 2020 by GOME-2 data, on Metop. Using linear and non-linear methods from time series analysis and standard statistics the trends of H2O contents and their errors have been calculated. In this study, factors affecting the trend such as the length of the time series, the magnitude of the variability of the noise, and the autocorrelation of the noise are investigated. Special emphasis has been placed on the calculation of the statistical significance of the observed trends, which reveal significant local changes of water vapour columns distributed over the whole globe.

scholarly journals Assessment of Hadzhibeysky estuary and forecasting possible water level in it

2017 ◽  
pp. 156-163
Author(s):  
Zh.R. Shakirzanova
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Treatment Plant ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Spring Period ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Long Term Forecasting

Introduction. Modern hydrology of the Hadzhibeysky estuary is due to natural and anthropogenic factors and characterized by their intense economic use. Since the beginning of the last century, there was an intense discharge of municipal waters from Odessa (biological treatment plant "North"). This led to a significant increase in the levels of water in the estuary, which threatened to destroy the dam that separates the estuary from the sea, with the possible flooding of residential areas and enterprises of the Peresip area, as well as the road, on the dam, especially in disastrously high water years. Purpose. The purpose problems – are estimation of filling the closed estuaries-reservoirs in north-west area of the Black sea and long–term forecasting of their condition during the spring period of year. The first task – an analysis of conditions of the Hadzhibeysky estuary in the presence of an exceptional spring flood and rain floods of exceedance probability (P = 1%). The second task – is to develop a methodology for the long-term forecasting of filling of the Hadzhibeysky estuary during the spring flood, which is the most abundant phase in the hydrological regime into the territory. Results. For the first time, the possibility of assessing the filling degree surface water from melting snow and rainfall when the estimated probability of exceeding P=1% in the closed estuaries-reservoirs of the Black Sea areas. The method of the long-term forecast of surface water during the spring period for the closed estuaries was substantiated. Typification of spring floods in accordance with their water content according to the model – discriminant function DF, which takes account of the complex of factors having an influence upon conditions of spring flood formation. Setting the probability of occurrence of the forecasting flow layers in the long-term period are implemented. Conclusion. This method allows risk assessment for sustainable land – and water use planning within the Black Sea estuaries. The method of the long-term forecast was realized by the author in operational work at the Hydrometeorological Center of the Black and Azov Seas.

scholarly journals The impact of factors to profitability of some coal mining enterprises after vinacomin restructure project

2020 ◽  
Vol 61 (5) ◽  
pp. 97-103
Author(s):  
Trang Thu Pham ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Coal Mining ◽  
Production Capacity ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Dupont Analysis ◽  
Mineral Industries ◽  
The Impact

The article uses Dupont analysis to determine the factors affecting profitability (ROE) of Vietnam coal mining enterprises and the regression method to examine the impact of production capacity of short-term assets, production capacity of long-term assets, production capacity of costs and capital structure on the profitability of firms. The article uses financial data collected from 19 coal mining companies of Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries Holding Corporation during the period of 2015 - 2018. The results show that production capacity of short-term assets, production capacity of long-term assets, production capacity of costs and capital structure positively impact profitability. The paper suggests 2 ways to improve profitability: firstly, borrowing to invest in technology will help coal mining enterprises improve their profitability; secondly, improving production processes appropriately to take full advantage of existing equipment capacity, thereby increasing profitability.

scholarly journals Management of the River Vedi Annual Runoff

2019 ◽  
Vol 75 ◽  
pp. 02003
Author(s):  
Varduhi Margaryan ◽  
Ksenia Raevich
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Mathematical Statistic ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Collect Work ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
Geographic Mapping ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
Long Term Forecasting

The article presents the following tasks for the Vedi river: to study and analyze the main physical and geographical factors determining the runoff; to collect, work out, analyze and estimate the results of factual hydro-meteorological observations of the river basin; to discover and analyze the features of intra-year distribution of the river runoff basin; to study dynamic changes of the river runoff; to create the methods of long-term forecasting of monthly and annual runoff; to create a map of spatial distribution of the river runoff. For these purposes were used the data of hydrological and meteorological stations, points of basin observations and mathematical-statistic, geographic, mapping, analytical and correlation methods.

scholarly journals Responses of Streamflow to Climate Change and Human Activities in a River Basin, Northeast China

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanwen Zhang ◽  
Wei Xu ◽  
Xintong Xu ◽  
Baohong Lu
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Climate Elasticity ◽  
The Impact

It is now common knowledge that many water resources stresses relate to access to water within a basin. Yi River Basin, a typical river basin characterized by intensive agricultural processes, significant population growth, and water management, has been undergoing grave water problems. In this paper, the long-term trend of precipitation and streamflow in Yi River Basin, from 1964 to 2010, was investigated via Mann-Kendall test. The change point occurred in the year 1965 dividing the long-term series into two periods. Climate elasticity method and linear regression method were implemented to quantify the impact of precipitation and human activities on runoff and presented basically consistent results of the percentage change in an annual runoff for the postchange period. The results reveal that the decline of annual runoff in postchange period is mainly attributed to precipitation variability of 53.66–58.25% and human activities of 46.34–41.74%, as estimated by climate elasticity method and linear regression method, respectively. This study detected the changes in the precipitation-streamflow relationship and investigated the possible causes in the Yi River, which will be helpful for providing a reference for the management of regional water resources.

Development of Social and Economic Forecasting and Ideas of A. Anchishkin

2013 ◽  
pp. 143-155
Author(s):  
A. Klepach ◽  
G. Kuranov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Planning ◽  
Special Role ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Economic Forecasting ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Working Out

The role of the prominent Soviet economist, academician A. Anchishkin (1933—1987), whose 80th birth anniversary we celebrate this year, in the development of ideas and formation of economic forecasting in the country at the time when the directive planning acted as a leading tool of economic management is explored in the article. Besides, Anchishkin’s special role is noted in developing a comprehensive program of scientific and technical progress, an information basis for working out long-term forecasts of the country’s development, moreover, his contribution to the creation of long-term forecasting methodology and improvement of the statistical basis for economic analysis and economic planning. The authors show that social and economic forecasting in the period after 1991, which has undertaken a number of functions of economic planning, has largely relied on further development of Anchishkin’s ideas, at the same time responding to new challenges for the Russian economy development during its entry into the world economic system.

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