scholarly journals Optimized Segmentation-Adaptive-Based Testing of the Wavelet Co-movement Analysis: the Case of US and G8 Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. 01003
Author(s):  
Jitka Poměnková ◽  
Eva Klejmová ◽  
Tobiáš Malach
Keyword(s):  
Movement Analysis ◽  
Significance Testing ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Standard Testing ◽  
Cross Spectrum ◽  
Local Variance ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Number Of Segments

The paper deals with the identification and the description of the co-movement between the US and G8 countries with regard to the impact of the structural change, i.e. the financial crisis in 2008. For the identification of the co-movement, we use an optimized segmentation-adaptive-based approach (SAB) of significance testing of the power wavelet cross-spectrum. The SAB testing is based on the standard testing for the power wavelet cross-spectrum adapted for the case if the data have several levels of volatility during the time evolution, i.e. the data can be split into several segments with different volatility. The number of segments is set by the heteroscedasticity test and the test for comparing variances in the segments of the time series. The SAB testing allows us to identify significant co-movement with respect to the local variance, which can reveal additional significant co-movement areas. We apply this approach to the monthly data of industrial production index for G8 countries in 1993–2017.

scholarly journals Africa’s Trade with China and US: Has COVID-19 Changed the Trends of Trade?

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 55-66
Author(s):  
Adesola Ibironke
Keyword(s):  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Face ◽  
Key Policy ◽  
International Issues ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Large Investment

Africa’s trade with China and the US is one of the international issues affecting development in the continent. This paper, therefore, examines the effects of COVID-19 on Africa’s trade with the two countries by investigating whether the pandemic has changed the trends of the trade. The article explores the responses of the individual trade of China and the US with Africa to their own shocks, without and with the pandemic, using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model and monthly data covering 1970m01 (January 1970) to 2020m07 (July 2020). The results show that China’s trade performs better while responding to a shock to America’s trade than America’s trade does while responding to a shock to China’s trade, without and with COVID-19. This finding suggests that China has a stronger trade footing in Africa and that COVID-19 had not changed the trends of Africa’s trade with China and America, even with the impact of the pandemic on China. China’s dominant trade status in Africa is probably due to the country’s large investment and aid in the continent. The key policy focus of Africa on trading with China and the US should therefore be how to achieve optimum trilateral trade thresholds in the face of potential trade-offs.

scholarly journals PENGARUH KRISIS EKONOMI AMERIKA SERIKAT TERHADAP BURSA SAHAM DAN PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 89-103
Author(s):  
Mita Nezky
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Svar Model ◽  
Dow Jones Industrial Average ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the impact of the financial crisis in United States 2008 on Indonesia’s economy, by using Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model of 5 variables; Dow Jones Industrial Average, exchange rate, composite stock price index (IHSG), production index and trade tax income. The result shows that the US crisis affects the capital market in Indonesia where the Dow Jones Industrial Average plays greater role in explaining the IHSG, compared to Rupiah rate, production index and the trade income tax. In addition, the US crisis affects the volume and the trade income tax in Indonesia. These empirical results bring policy implication for Bappepam-LK as stock market regulator to intervene or to suspend the trade when the volatility exceeds the psychological threshold. It also emphasizes the necessity to diversify the export country destination and to increase the quality and the value added of Indonesian export.Keywords : US Crisis, stock market, trade, SVAR.JEL Classification : G18

scholarly journals US Growth And Inflation

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samih Antoine Azar
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Applied Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Bivariate Association ◽  
Real Balances ◽  
The Impact

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">This paper tests the relation between inflation and growth in the US. This relation is negative and statistically significant even with a monthly frequency. Moreover, the impact is higher with quarterly data, relative to annual data, and higher with monthly data relative to quarterly data. The relation remains robust (1) with IV (2SLS) estimation, (2) when inflation is divided into positive and negative components, (3) when it is divided into expected and unexpected components, and (4) when the applied model is an expectations-augmented Phillips curve. Although the paper argues that the theory that should explain this negative relation is the demand for real balances, the evidence is also consistent with a simple bivariate association. </span></span></p>

scholarly journals The Impact of US Crisis on Trade and Stock Market in Indonesia

2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 83-96
Author(s):  
Mita Nezky
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Svar Model ◽  
Dow Jones Industrial Average ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the impact of the financial crisis in United States 2008 on Indonesia’s economy, by using Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model of 5 variables; Dow Jones Industrial Average, exchange rate, composite stock price index (IHSG), production index and trade tax income. The result shows that the US crisis affects the capital market in Indonesia where the Dow Jones Industrial Average plays greater role in explaining the IHSG, compared to Rupiah rate, production index and the trade income tax. In addition, the US crisis affects the volume and the trade income tax in Indonesia. These empirical results bring policy implication for Bappepam-LK as stock market regulator to intervene or to suspend the trade when the volatility exceeds the psychological threshold. It also emphasizes the necessity to diversify the export country destination and to increase the quality and the value added of Indonesian export. Keywords : US Crisis, stock market, trade, SVAR.JEL Classification : G18

Systematic review methodology for development: An example from microfinance

2018 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carina Van Rooyen ◽  
Ruth Stewart ◽  
Thea De Wet
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
International Development ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Systematic Review Methodology ◽  
Development Interventions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Evidence Based Decision Making

Big international development donors such as the UK’s Department for International Development and USAID have recently started using systematic review as a methodology to assess the effectiveness of various development interventions to help them decide what is the ‘best’ intervention to spend money on. Such an approach to evidence-based decision-making has long been practiced in the health sector in the US, UK, and elsewhere but it is relatively new in the development field. In this article we use the case of a systematic review of the impact of microfinance on the poor in sub-Saharan African to indicate how systematic review as a methodology can be used to assess the impact of specific development interventions.

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

Determinant Factors on Differences in Survival for Gastric Cancer between the US and Japan Using Nationwide Databases: The Impact of Number of Lymph Nodes Examined

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuri Ito ◽  
Isao Miyashiro ◽  
Takashi Ishikawa ◽  
Kohei Akazawa ◽  
Keisuke Fukui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Lymph Nodes ◽  
Determinant Factors ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

The US Monetary Policy Normalization: The Impact on Korean Financial Market and Capital Flows

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tae Soo Kang ◽  
Kyunghun KIim ◽  
Hyunduk Suh
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Us Monetary Policy

Drones, Surveillance, and Violence: Theory and Evidence from a US Drone Program

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asfandyar Mir ◽  
Dylan Moore
Keyword(s):  
Air Power ◽  
Affected Area ◽  
Qualitative Evidence ◽  
The Us ◽  
Drone Strikes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Group Trust

Abstract We investigate the impact of the US drone program in Pakistan on insurgent violence. Using details about US-Pakistan counterterrorism cooperation and geocoded violence data, we show that the program was associated with monthly reductions of around nine to thirteen insurgent attacks and fifty-one to eighty-six casualties in the area affected by the program. This change was sizable, as in the year before the program, the affected area experienced around twenty-one attacks and one hundred casualties per month. Additional quantitative and qualitative evidence suggests that this drop is attributable to the drone program. However, the damage caused in strikes during the program cannot fully account for the reduction. Instead, anticipatory effects induced by the program played a prominent role in subduing violence. These effects stemmed from the insurgents’ perception of the risk of being targeted in drone strikes; their efforts to avoid targeting severely compromised their movement and communication abilities, in addition to eroding within-group trust. These findings contrast with prominent perspectives on air-power, counterinsurgency, and US counterterrorism, suggesting select drone deployments can be an effective tool of counterinsurgency and counterterrorism.

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