scholarly journals Fuzzy-based non-bankruptcy trend forecast

2022 ◽  
Vol 132 ◽  
pp. 01004
Author(s):  
Simona Hašková
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Measured Data ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Fuzzy Approach ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Expected Values ◽  
A Company

Many companies face an economic downturn due to the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak, which makes their future uncertain. The practical aim of the paper is to establish a procedure for an effective prediction of a business tendency to bankrupt in the short-term period. The tool is a three-stage fuzzy model formulated in the theoreticalmethodological part and applied on the real data of an examined company. The model input parameters are objective and subjective measured data between 2008-2020 of a nature affecting the output. The output is an interval of subjectively expected values determining the non-Bankruptcy trend (non-B) of a company. The paper shows advantages of the interval fuzzy approach for bankruptcy prediction and identifies the measure of business safety.

scholarly journals Strategic flexibilities: valuation of a company with the application of the Real Options Theory

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 650-658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Izabelle Martinez Martinez ◽  
Gislaine Cristina Batistela ◽  
Danilo Simões
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Binomial Model ◽  
Real Options Theory ◽  
The Real ◽  
Secondary Sector ◽  
A Company

Goal: In this paper, a binomial model is proposed to evaluate the option of deferring an investment and expanding the operational scale of a forest-based company that will perform the de-duplication of Pinus sp. and will market packaging for storage and transportation of vegetables. Design/Methodology/Approach: The proposed model measured the options of deferring an investment and expanding the operational scale of the forest-based company. In this perspective, the model of evaluation used was the binomial model in discrete time using the Real Options. Results: It was observed that the inclusion of management flexibilities in the decision making process has added value to the investment project; therefore, the project of investments in real assets proved to be economically feasible. Limitations of the investigation: The studies that address the corporate finance framework based on real data are a restrictive factor, due to the lack of collaboration of companies, that is, the availability of information that is usually classified. Practical implications: The study was based on the real data of a company; therefore, it can be adopted as a stimulus to the Real Options approach to the decision making of entrepreneurs or researchers. Originality/value: The focus of the study was to contemplate the managerial flexibilities of an industry of the secondary sector of the Brazilian economy, which performs the unfolding of wood, demonstrating the innovation of the technique approach used in this market segment.

scholarly journals Wind Power Prediction Based on Nonlinear Partial Least Square

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Wang ◽  
Yang Lei ◽  
Hui Cao
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Wind Power Prediction

Wind power prediction is important for the smart grid safe operation and scheduling, and it can improve the economic and technical penetration of wind energy. The intermittent and the randomness of wind would affect the accuracy of prediction. According to the sequence correlation between wind speed and wind power data, we propose a method for short-term wind power prediction. The proposed method adopts the wind speed in every sliding data window to obtain the continuous prediction of wind power. Then, the nonlinear partial least square is adopted to map the wind speed under the time series to wind power. The model carries the neural network as the nonlinear function to describe the inner relation, and the outputs of hidden layer nodes are the extension term of the original independent input matrix to partial least squares regression. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, the real data of wind power with different working conditions are adopted in experiments. The proposed method, backpropagation neural network, radial basis function neural network, support vector machine, and partial least square are performed on the real data and their effectiveness is compared. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm has higher precision, and the real power running curves also verify that the proposed method can predict the wind power in short-term effectively.

scholarly journals Fuzzy Approach to Short-Term Youth Unemployment Forecast

2020 ◽  
Vol 73 ◽  
pp. 01007
Author(s):  
Simona Hašková
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Statistical Prediction ◽  
Inference Rules ◽  
Linguistic Variables ◽  
Fuzzy Approach ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Prediction Task ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

The practical output of the paper is the prediction of the percentage of the short-term youth unemployment in the following two consecutive years. For this purpose, the non-traditional fuzzy model of the relevant prediction task is formulated in its theoretical-methodological part, which is subsequently applied in the application part. By means of the exact tools of the fuzzy approach (fuzzy sets and inference rules for manipulation with them), the synergy, uncertainty and complexity of the values (terms) of vaguely defined linguistic variables of an economic-psychological nature represented by sets of selected macroeconomic indicators is reflected. Despite the fact that the results of the fuzzy prediction are not significantly different from the results of conventional statistical prediction, the demonstration of the approach of the case of knowledgeable expertise to the choice of the relevant fuzzy sets and the formulation of the set of inference rules can be considered as a secondary benefit.

Hidden “holes” in the capital of banks and the supply of credit to the real sector of economy

2018 ◽  
pp. 49-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. E. Mamonov
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
The Other ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Capital Management ◽  
Loan Loss ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The One

Our analysis documents that the existence of hidden “holes” in the capital of not yet failed banks - while creating intertemporal pressure on the actual level of capital - leads to changing of maturity of loans supplied rather than to contracting of their volume. Long-term loans decrease, whereas short-term loans rise - and, what is most remarkably, by approximately the same amounts. Standardly, the higher the maturity of loans the higher the credit risk and, thus, the more loan loss reserves (LLP) banks are forced to create, increasing the pressure on capital. Banks that already hide “holes” in the capital, but have not yet faced with license withdrawal, must possess strong incentives to shorten the maturity of supplied loans. On the one hand, it raises the turnovers of LLP and facilitates the flexibility of capital management; on the other hand, it allows increasing the speed of shifting of attracted deposits to loans to related parties in domestic or foreign jurisdictions. This enlarges the potential size of ex post revealed “hole” in the capital and, therefore, allows us to assume that not every loan might be viewed as a good for the economy: excessive short-term and insufficient long-term loans can produce the source for future losses.

PENERAPAN CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY DALAM PENGELOLAAN WAKAF PRODUKTIF

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masruchin Masruchin
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Impacts ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Religious Activities ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Local Society ◽  
Business Units ◽  
Corporate Social ◽  
The Impact ◽  
A Company ◽  
Social And Environmental Impacts

Corporate Social Responsibilityis a concept that a company has various forms of responsibility to all stakeholders including consumers, employees, shareholders, communities and the environment in all aspects of the company's operations that include economic, social, and environmental aspects. Therefore CSR is closely related to "sustainable development", in which a company, in carrying out its activities must base its decisions not only on the impact on economic aspects, such as the level of profits or dividends (profits), but also must consider the social and environmental impacts that arise from that decision, both for the short term and the longer term.Pondok Modern Darussalam Gontor (PMDG), in managing its Productive Waqf by establishing business units which mostly involve workers from the local society around PMDG. They are employed according to their skills. This is a form of implementing CSR in order to help advance and improve the welfare of the local society. The existence of these various business units is one of the educational facilities and as a form of CSR application which is actually intended to educate in the fields of independence, entrepreneurship, sincerity and sacrifice.PMDG involvement in social activities that are useful for the local society such as infrastructure development and village facilities, regeneration of students who are from around PMDG to be able to get higher education with funding from the PMDG, doing guidance to the local society through various religious activities, educational and economic activities is a form of PMDG responsibility to the local society environment and also to all stakeholders such as students, Ustadz, employees, so as to provide social and environmental impacts for the short term and the longer term.Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibilityandproductive waqf.

Single Depth View Based Real-Time Reconstruction of Hand-Object Interactions

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Hao Zhang ◽  
Yuxiao Zhou ◽  
Yifei Tian ◽  
Jun-Hai Yong ◽  
Feng Xu
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Depth Image ◽  
Real Time System ◽  
The Real ◽  
Time Performance ◽  
Contact Constraint ◽  
Object Shapes ◽  
Object Interactions

Reconstructing hand-object interactions is a challenging task due to strong occlusions and complex motions. This article proposes a real-time system that uses a single depth stream to simultaneously reconstruct hand poses, object shape, and rigid/non-rigid motions. To achieve this, we first train a joint learning network to segment the hand and object in a depth image, and to predict the 3D keypoints of the hand. With most layers shared by the two tasks, computation cost is saved for the real-time performance. A hybrid dataset is constructed here to train the network with real data (to learn real-world distributions) and synthetic data (to cover variations of objects, motions, and viewpoints). Next, the depth of the two targets and the keypoints are used in a uniform optimization to reconstruct the interacting motions. Benefitting from a novel tangential contact constraint, the system not only solves the remaining ambiguities but also keeps the real-time performance. Experiments show that our system handles different hand and object shapes, various interactive motions, and moving cameras.

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