Network-Level Bridge Deterioration Prediction Models That Consider the Effect of Maintenance and Rehabilitation

2022 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Feiyue Wang ◽  
Cheng-Chun “Barry” Lee ◽  
Nasir G. Gharaibeh
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Maintenance And Rehabilitation

scholarly journals How Prediction Accuracy Can Affect the Decision-Making Process in Pavement Management System

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Seyed Amirhossein Hosseini ◽  
Omar Smadi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Reduction Rate ◽  
Pavement Management ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Pavement Management Systems ◽  
Maintenance And Rehabilitation ◽  
Predicted Values ◽  
The Cost

One of the most important components of pavement management systems is predicting the deterioration of the network through performance models. The accuracy of the prediction model is important for prioritizing maintenance action. This paper describes how the accuracy of prediction models can have an effect on the decision-making process in terms of the cost of maintenance and rehabilitation activities. The process is simulating the propagation of the error between the actual and predicted values of pavement performance indicators. Different rate of error (10%, 30%, 50%, 70%, and 90%) was added into the result of prediction models. The results showed a strong correlation between the prediction models’ accuracy and the cost of maintenance and rehabilitation activities. The cost of treatment (in millions of dollars) over 20 years for five different scenarios increased from ($54.07–$92.95), ($53.89–$155.48), and ($74.41–$107.77) for asphalt, composite, and concrete pavement types, respectively. Increasing the rate of error also contributed to the prediction model, resulting in a higher benefit reduction rate.

Comparison of Crack-Width Prediction Models for Steel-Reinforced Concrete Structures

2015 ◽  
Vol 784 ◽  
pp. 129-136
Author(s):  
Huu Tran ◽  
Chun Qing Li ◽  
Sujeeva Setunge
Keyword(s):  
Reinforced Concrete ◽  
Crack Width ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Concrete Structures ◽  
Concrete Cover ◽  
Reinforced Concrete Structures ◽  
Steel Reinforced Concrete ◽  
Maintenance And Rehabilitation ◽  
Complex Models

Prediction of time-to-cracking and crack-width of concrete cover provides useful information for decision making on maintenance and rehabilitation of reinforced concrete structures. Comparison of prediction models for time-to-cracking has been done in a recently published study, which indicated simple prediction models provide better good fit to various sets of experimental data than complex models. As a follow-up, this study uses published crack-width data to compare different models, developed in the literature to predict crack-width of concrete cover.

How Prediction Accuracy can Affect the Decision-Making Process in Pavement Management System

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed Amirhossein Hosseini ◽  
Omar Smadi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Reduction Rate ◽  
Pavement Management ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Pavement Management Systems ◽  
Maintenance And Rehabilitation ◽  
Predicted Values ◽  
The Cost

One of the most important components of pavement management systems is predicting the deterioration of the network through performance models. The accuracy of the prediction model is important for prioritizing maintenance action. This paper describes how the accuracy of prediction models can have an effect on the decision-making process in terms of the cost of maintenance and rehabilitation activities. The process is simulating the propagation of the error between the actual and predicted values of pavement performance indicators. Different rate of error was added into the result of prediction models. The results showed a strong correlation between the prediction models’ accuracy and the cost of maintenance and rehabilitation activities. Also, increasing the rate of error contribution to the prediction model resulting in a higher benefit reduction rate.

scholarly journals Roughness Modeling for Composite Pavements using Machine Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 1203 (3) ◽  
pp. 032035
Author(s):  
Rulian Barros ◽  
Hakan Yasarer ◽  
Waheed Uddin ◽  
Salma Sultana
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Concrete Pavement ◽  
Ride Quality ◽  
Performance Models ◽  
Asphalt Overlay ◽  
Road Users ◽  
Maintenance And Rehabilitation ◽  
Roughness Index ◽  
Roughness Prediction ◽  
Composite Pavements

Abstract A large number of paved highway surfaces comprises composite pavements as a result of concrete pavement rehabilitation that uses an asphalt overlay on top of the concrete surface. Annually, billions of dollars are spent on the maintenance and rehabilitation of road networks. Roughness is one of the several indicators of road conditions used to make objective decisions related to road network management. The irregularities in the pavement surface affecting the ride quality of road users can be described by a standard roughness index defined as the International Roughness Index (IRI). Roughness prediction models can identify rehabilitation needs, analyze rehabilitation effects, and estimate future pavement conditions to implement different Maintenance and Rehabilitation (M&R) activities to extend the pavement life cycle and provide a smooth surface for road users. This study intended to develop pavement performance models to predict roughness for asphalt overlay on concrete pavement sections using the Long-Term Performance Pavement (LTPP) program database. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) approach was used to develop roughness prediction models. A total of 52 pavement sections with 592 data points were analyzed. Five models were developed, and the best performing model, Model 5 was found with an average square error (ASE) of 0.0023, mean absolute relative error (MARE) of 12.936, and coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.88. Model 5 utilized one output variable (IRIMean) and 14 input variables (i.e., Initial IRIMean, Age, Wet-Freeze, Wet Non-Freeze, Dry-Freeze, Dry Non-Freeze, Asphalt Thickness, Concrete Thickness, CN Code, ESAL, Annual Air Temperature, Freeze Index, Freeze-Thaw, and Precipitation). The ANN model structure utilized for Model 5 was 14-9-1 (14 inputs, 9 hidden nodes, and 1 output). Environmental impacts and traffic repetitions can cause severe damage to the pavement if timely maintenance and rehabilitation are not performed. By considering the effects of the M&R history of the pavement, it is possible to obtain realistic prediction models for future planning. Therefore, the developed ANN roughness performance models in this paper can be used as a prediction tool for IRI values and guide decision-makers to develop a better M&R plan. Local and state agencies can use available historical traffic and climatological data in the developed models to estimate the change in IRI values. Utilizing these prediction models eliminates time-consuming data collection and post-processing, and consequently, a cost reduction. This low-cost tool will improve the condition assessment and effective M&R scheduling.

4 Pattern Recognition for Healing Burns to Compute Evidence: Space Syntax and Machine Learning Analysis of Burns Center Karachi

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Javaria Manzoor Shaikh ◽  
JaeSeung Park
Keyword(s):  
Pattern Recognition ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Uv Light ◽  
Healing Process ◽  
Space Syntax ◽  
Depth Map ◽  
Routine Tasks ◽  
Hyper Plane ◽  
First Time ◽  
Learning Analysis

Usually elongated hospitalization is experienced byBurn patients, and the precise forecast of the placement of patientaccording to the healing acceleration has significant consequenceon healthcare supply administration. Substantial amount ofevidence suggest that sun light is essential to burns healing andcould be exceptionally beneficial for burned patients andworkforce in healthcare building. Satisfactory UV sunlight isfundamental for a calculated amount of burn to heal; this delicaterather complex matrix is achieved by applying patternclassification for the first time on the space syntax map of the floorplan and Browder chart of the burned patient. On the basis of thedata determined from this specific healthcare learning technique,nurse can decide the location of the patient on the floor plan, hencepatient safety first is the priority in the routine tasks by staff inhealthcare settings. Whereas insufficient UV light and vitamin Dcan retard healing process, hence this experiment focuses onmachine learning design in which pattern recognition andtechnology supports patient safety as our primary goal. In thisexperiment we lowered the adverse events from 2012- 2013, andnearly missed errors and prevented medical deaths up to 50%lower, as compared to the data of 2005- 2012 before this techniquewas incorporated.In this research paper, three distinctive phases of clinicalsituations are considered—primarily: admission, secondly: acute,and tertiary: post-treatment according to the burn pattern andhealing rate—and be validated by capable AI- origin forecastingtechniques to hypothesis placement prediction models for eachclinical stage with varying percentage of burn i.e. superficialwound, partial thickness or full thickness deep burn. Conclusivelywe proved that the depth of burn is directly proportionate to thedepth of patient’s placement in terms of window distance. Ourfindings support the hypothesis that the windowed wall is mosthealing wall, here fundamental suggestion is support vectormachines: which is most advantageous hyper plane for linearlydivisible patterns for the burns depth as well as the depth map isused.

Bankruptcy Prediction Models: A Bet on Artificial Neural Networks

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 48-50
Author(s):  
Ana Isabel Velasco Fernández ◽  
◽  
Ricardo José Rejas Muslera ◽  
Juan Padilla Fernández-Vega ◽  
María Isabel Cepeda González
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural

The Role of Revascularisation in Patients Undergoing Non-cardiac Surgery

2010 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 104
Author(s):  
Daniel S Menees ◽  
Eric R Bates ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Surgery ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Cardiovascular Complications ◽  
Weight Of Evidence ◽  
Beta Blockade ◽  
Cardiac Morbidity ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Reduction Strategies ◽  
Artery Disease ◽  
Risk Reduction Strategies

Coronary artery disease (CAD) affects millions of US citizens. As the population ages, an increasing number of people with CAD are undergoing non-cardiac surgery and face significant peri-operative cardiac morbidity and mortality. Risk-prediction models can be used to help identify those patients at increased risk of peri-operative cardiovascular complications. Risk-reduction strategies utilising pharmacotherapy with beta blockade and statins have shown the most promise. Importantly, the benefit of prophylactic coronary revascularisation has not been demonstrated. The weight of evidence suggests reserving either percutaneous or surgical revascularisation in the pre-operative setting for those patients who would otherwise meet independent revascularisation criteria.

Enterprise Performance Analysis of the Selected Service Sector by Applying Modern Methods with an Emphasis on the Creation and Application of the Modified Creditworthy Model (MCWM)

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (17) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erika Onuferová ◽  
Veronika Čabinová
Keyword(s):  
Service Sector ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Financial Indicators ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Future Success ◽  
Financial Growth ◽  
Net Assets ◽  
Third Dimension

The aim of presented paper was to create and subsequently apply the Modified 3D Creditworthy Model (MCWM) of performance reflecting sectoral characteristics and financial specificities of the selected sample of Slovak tour operators over the years 2013 – 2017. The intention of this research study was to implement the key financial indicators and appropriate prediction models into both dimensions of the traditional 2D Creditworthy Model of performance and to supplement its third dimension applying the selected modern assessment methods – the Economic Value Added and the Return On Net Assets as we consider them to be one of the most important indicators of future success and company's financial growth. This modification will help to better identify the current financial position of tour operators and more accurately identify causes that hinder the development of financial performance of the selected sample of enterprises. However, after adjusting the upper and lower quartile averages of a particular industry, this methodology is applicable in the wider context of enterprises, not only those operating in the tourism sector.

Predictors of remission from body dysmorphic disorder after internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy: a machine learning approach

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oskar Flygare ◽  
Jesper Enander ◽  
Erik Andersson ◽  
Brjánn Ljótsson ◽  
Volen Z Ivanov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Random Forests ◽  
Clinical Utility ◽  
Body Dysmorphic Disorder ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Behavioral Therapy ◽  
Learning Approach ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Machine Learning Approach

**Background:** Previous attempts to identify predictors of treatment outcomes in body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) have yielded inconsistent findings. One way to increase precision and clinical utility could be to use machine learning methods, which can incorporate multiple non-linear associations in prediction models. **Methods:** This study used a random forests machine learning approach to test if it is possible to reliably predict remission from BDD in a sample of 88 individuals that had received internet-delivered cognitive behavioral therapy for BDD. The random forest models were compared to traditional logistic regression analyses. **Results:** Random forests correctly identified 78% of participants as remitters or non-remitters at post-treatment. The accuracy of prediction was lower in subsequent follow-ups (68%, 66% and 61% correctly classified at 3-, 12- and 24-month follow-ups, respectively). Depressive symptoms, treatment credibility, working alliance, and initial severity of BDD were among the most important predictors at the beginning of treatment. By contrast, the logistic regression models did not identify consistent and strong predictors of remission from BDD. **Conclusions:** The results provide initial support for the clinical utility of machine learning approaches in the prediction of outcomes of patients with BDD. **Trial registration:** ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT02010619.

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