Large Infrastructure Projects: A Review of the Quality of Demand Forecasts and Cost Estimations

2007 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 611-625 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bert van Wee
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Strategic Behaviour ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Demand Forecasts

Decision making with respect to large infrastructure projects is at least partly based on ex ante evaluations of costs and impacts. Impacts include economic, environmental, and social impacts, sometimes aggregated in a cost-benefit analysis (CBA). For such ex ante evaluations the quality of the related demand and costs forecasts is very important. This paper aims to answer four questions: (1) What is the quality of demand forecasts for large infrastructure projects? (2) What is the quality of cost forecasts for these projects? (3) How can current practices with respect to assessing the demand and cost forecasts be improved? (4) Which implications do the insights have for practice, and which challenges for future research can be derived from the findings? A literature review is used to answer the first three questions. It is concluded that the quality of transport demand and costs forecasts is often very poor, especially for rail projects. This is not so much a lack of adequate forecasting techniques or a matter of insight into the factors determining costs, but more the strategic behaviour of some actors. Improvements therefore should not only be looked for in the area of transport demand and cost-estimation methodologies, but should also focus on the question of how strategic behaviour can be avoided or at least limited. These conclusions are very important for CBA because cost underestimations and demand overestimations have a major impact on the cost-benefit ratio and decrease the potentially positive impact of CBA on the quality of decision making. The paper discusses several challenges for related future research.

scholarly journals Climate Preferences for Tourism: Perceptions Regarding Ideal and Unfavourable Conditions for Hiking in Spain

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 646 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilio Martínez-Ibarra ◽  
María Gómez-Martín ◽  
Xosé Armesto-López ◽  
Rubén Pardo-Martínez
Keyword(s):  
Leisure Time ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Leisure Activity ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Tourism Climatology ◽  
The Aesthetic

Physical activity is an increasingly frequent part of our leisure time. Within this context, hiking is a popular form of tourism which has a positive impact on the quality of life. In spite of the importance of climate conditions for this recreational activity, relatively little research has been done on hiking from the perspective of climate and tourism. With this in mind in this paper we make the first detailed extensive assessment of climate preferences for the practice of hiking tourism in Spain. To this end a review of the theoretical/methodological body of literature on tourism climatology was conducted together with a survey aimed at evaluating the stated climate preferences of hiking tourists. The results are offered within the framework of international research on climate preferences for a range of tourism activities. The comparative analysis of these results with regard to those obtained in previous research highlights various similarities but also certain factors specific to hiking in Spain. Overall, the climate preferences of hiking tourists are similar to those of other segments of the tourism market in terms of the aesthetic and physical aspects of the climate, although they also have certain specific preferences as regards thermal aspects, especially regarding the optimal daily thermal conditions for hiking. The results obtained are useful for assessing the suitability of the climate for the practice of hiking tourism in Spain and for promoting proper management and planning of this leisure activity in tourist destinations, including the development of climate calendars detailing the most suitable times of the year for hiking at these destinations. These issues will be addressed in future research studies.

The heart team in acute cardiac care

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arie Pieter Kappetein ◽  
Christiaan Antonides ◽  
Stephan Windecker
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
One Health ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Cardiac Care ◽  
Heart Team ◽  
Specialty Area ◽  
Acute Setting ◽  
Roles And Responsibilities ◽  
Acute Cardiac Care

The complexity of acute cardiac care today makes it necessary that patients are looked after by more than one health care professional. Complex tasks require complex systems. Teamwork is essential for minimizing adverse events caused by miscommunication and misunderstanding about roles and responsibilities, and it can have an immediate and positive impact on the patient. The increasing complexity and specialization of care of the cardiac patient in the acute setting, combined with an ever increasing number of therapeutic options, make it necessary to coordinate teams of doctors for each specialty area. Multidisciplinary decision making optimizes care and is mandatory in light of evolving options and improvement of quality of care and will lead to more efficiency.

‘Of Never Quite Knowing What I Might Be’: Using Chaos Counselling with University Students

2005 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 53-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rhyll P. Davey ◽  
Jim E.H. Bright ◽  
Robert G.L. Pryor ◽  
Kirsty Levin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
University Students ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Career Decision ◽  
Career Exploration ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Career Decision Making ◽  
Video Presentation ◽  
Video Intervention

This study examined the efficacy of video-based chaos counselling of university students. In this study, 42 university students watched a video that presented student case studies emphasising chaotic concepts. Career decision-making measures and measures of stress were taken one week prior, immediately after and one week after the video presentation. The chaos intervention had a positive impact on career decision-making self-efficacy and career exploration behaviours. Overall, the results support the use of a chaos video intervention. Implications for careers practice and future research are discussed.

scholarly journals Evaluation of benefits and harms of surgical treatments for post-radical prostatectomy urinary incontinence: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol

F1000Research ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 1155
Author(s):  
Roselyne Choiniere ◽  
Patrick O. Richard ◽  
Melanie Morin ◽  
Le-Mai Tu ◽  
Gordon H. Guyatt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Urinary Incontinence ◽  
Radical Prostatectomy ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Bulking Agents

Background: Post-radical prostatectomy urinary incontinence (PPI) is a frequent and feared complication that can affect approximately 25% of patients. Between 1 and 10% of patients suffering from PPI will require surgery. The effectiveness of the available surgical interventions has only been compared in a few randomized controlled trials and the available reviews have important limitations regarding both benefits and harms that make them insufficient to inform decision-making. The aim of the study is to provide systematic summaries of benefits and harms of contemporary surgical treatment options for PPI through systematic review and meta-analysis using GRADE methodology and reporting in accord with the PRISMA-P statement. Methods: Studies pertaining to bulking agents, male synthetic slings, compressive balloon systems (ProACT) or artificial urinary sphincters (AUS) used for the treatment of patients suffering from PPI will be included. A systematic search will be conducted using the OVID and PubMED platforms in MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane databases, and reference lists of relevant reviews and guidelines. Trained independent reviewers will conduct study selection and data extraction. Outcomes will include the number of pads used per day, the 24-h pad weight test, the Patient Global Impression of Improvement (PGI-I) and the Incontinence Quality of Life (IQOL) as possible benefits and the reoperations, the Clavien-Dindo complications and the other reported adverse events as the harms. When possible, pooled analyses will be completed. Risk of bias will be assessed using the CLARITY tools and a new tool for the before-and-after studies without a control group. Finally, study heterogeneity will be assessed, publication bias will be evaluated with funnel plots and quality of evidence rated for each outcome. Discussion: Our study will address patient-important outcomes and will be useful in clinical decision-making as well as identifying key elements for future research. Study registration: PROSPERO: CRD42018073923 05/12/2018

The heart team in acute cardiac care

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arie Pieter Kappetein ◽  
Stephan Windecker
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
One Health ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Cardiac Care ◽  
Heart Team ◽  
Specialty Area ◽  
Acute Setting ◽  
Roles And Responsibilities ◽  
Acute Cardiac Care

The complexity of acute cardiac care today makes it necessary that patients are looked after by more than one health care professional. Complex tasks require complex systems. Teamwork is essential for minimizing adverse events caused by miscommunication and misunderstanding about roles and responsibilities, and it can have an immediate and positive impact on the patient. The increasing complexity and specialization of care of the cardiac patient in the acute setting make it necessary to coordinate teams of doctors for each specialty area. Multidisciplinary decision making optimizes care and is mandatory in light of evolving options and improvement of quality of care and will lead to more efficiency.

The Communists

2020 ◽  
pp. 315-331
Author(s):  
Giorgos Charalambous
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Organizational Form ◽  
Comparative Perspective ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Opportunity Structures ◽  
Strategic Behaviour ◽  
Critical Junctures ◽  
Political Tactics ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Historical Trajectory

This chapter attempts to provide an understanding of the Greek Communist Party’s (KKE’s, Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας) physiognomy across time and in comparative perspective through an approach whereby ideological narratives, schemes of mobilization, and political tactics interact. This framework allows for an exposition of the inter-relationship between ideology, organization, and strategy in the case of Greek communism. In order to synthesize perspectives, revisit contested points, and close gaps in the study of contemporary Greek communism, the chapter’s reflections cut across five thematic sections: introduction; historical trajectory, ‘critical junctures’ and evolving opportunity structures with a focus on the KKE’s strategic behaviour; the KKE’s ideological and programmatic profile; the organizational form of the party in terms of mobilization structures and decision-making processes; and a conclusion which briefly considers future research avenues into Greek communism and its relevance for wider literatures.

Intelligent Tool for Decision Making Associated With Hospitalization and Sandstorms for the Optimization of Ambulances

2019 ◽  
pp. 50-61
Author(s):  
Estrella D. Molina-Herrera ◽  
Luis Ernesto Cervera-Gómez ◽  
Carlos Herrera
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
El Paso ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Case Based Reasoning ◽  
Dijkstra Algorithm ◽  
Postgraduate Students ◽  
Innovative Model ◽  
Case Based

The shortest path problem is a typical problem of optimization. This chapter presents an innovative model associated with the use of case-based reasoning to solve a problem of routing vehicles in a Hospital of El Paso, United States. In this chapter, diverse components are described to characterize this problem through the use of a knowledge system. The algorithm was developed in Java, thus obtaining a tool which determines the best tracks to the vehicles associated with ambulances. An experiment was realized to probe the validations; the results were used to compare it with the Dijkstra algorithm and determine the quality of the results. The future research of this intelligent tool is to determine an innovative perspective related to episodic knowledge applied to resolution of diverse ambulances, and as this topic is determinative to find and remember the best solutions quickly, additionally the authors compare it with a code from other postgraduate students trying to implement an algorithm similar to logistics but using a shuffled frog leap algorithm.

Novice's Performance and Satisfaction Improvement Through Expert Decision Support Usage

2004 ◽  
pp. 163-182
Author(s):  
Lucila Perez ◽  
Michel Plaisent ◽  
Prosper Bernard ◽  
Lassana Maguiraga
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Business World ◽  
New Employees ◽  
Training Tool ◽  
Treatment Groups ◽  
The Impact

Decision support technology, Expert Systems, Executives Information Systems, and Artificial Neural Networks, have been reported to be useful tools to enhance the performance of managers as they helped them to gain more knowledge, experiences, and expertise and consequently enhance the quality of the decision-making. They can also be used as a training tool to transfer the knowledge of the expert to middle and top management and thus improve the performance of new employees. This communication reports the conclusions of a study conducted to verify the impact of the use of the EDSS technology (Expert Decision Support Systems) on the performance and satisfaction of new employees in the business world. A laboratory experiment using control groups and treatment groups was held to test the research model. The results indicate that EDSS technologies do have a positive impact on the performance of the users.

A Preliminary Investigation of Costs and Benefits in Dietary Decisions

2005 ◽  
Vol 49 (19) ◽  
pp. 1805-1809
Author(s):  
Danielle Paige Smith
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Dietary Supplements ◽  
Exploratory Study ◽  
Preliminary Investigation ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Dietary Advice ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Likert Scales ◽  
Perceived Costs

This paper describes an exploratory study that examined the perceived costs and benefits and general attitudes toward dietary supplements and seeking a doctor's dietary advice. Thirty-five undergraduates completed a survey packet that used various methods to assessed attitudes toward dieting and obesity (i.e. Likert scales, cost-benefit generation, scenario-based decision tasks). Results generally replicate past work, in that participants were unsure about the safety and regulation of dietary supplements, and although physician's advice is important, they were unlikely to seek their doctor's advice prior to beginning to try and lose weight. Further, responses indicated a perception of few risks associated with seeking physician's advice; however, these appear to be weighted heavily when deciding on a dietary method based on the scenario decision-making task. The implications of these results on planned future research are discussed.

IMPACT ASSESSMENT RESEARCH IN BRAZIL: ACHIEVEMENTS, GAPS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (01) ◽  
pp. 1550009 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARCELO MONTAÑO ◽  
MARCELO PEREIRA DE SOUZA
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Environmental Governance ◽  
Good Practice ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Systematic Research ◽  
Systematic Assessment ◽  
Training And Research ◽  
Definition Of

This paper provides an overview of current IA research in Brazil, considering its extension, lessons learned and the quality of its practice, as well as barriers to research, current gaps and future research endeavours. Despite the big effort devoted to IA research in the country, there is a small number of groups dedicated to the systematic research of IA instruments, its procedures and methods, the assessment of its effectiveness and the evidence to support good practice, the study of the organization of IA systems and their influence on decision-making. In our opinion, the lack of a well structured and distinct field of training and research is one of the major barriers to IA research. Similar to other countries, IA research is not recognised by scientific agencies/committees as a proper field of research, which means the majority of IA research grants is being evaluated/approved by committees with a small or no background in IA. There is, however, a significant contribution to be offered by research to foster IA development in Brazil. Besides the systematic assessment of IA effectiveness and the definition of procedures, methods and approaches to fill the currently well-described gaps, future research efforts should include the study of learning processes through IA practice and their influence in decision-making, the connections between IA and planning, and the benchmarks to environmental governance coming from IA practice.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document