The Determinants of Municipal Debt Policy: A Pooled Time-Series Analysis

1998 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 211-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
R A Cropf ◽  
G D Wendel
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
General Obligation ◽  
Local Officials ◽  
Municipal Debt ◽  
General Obligation Debt ◽  
Pooled Time Series ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Us Cities ◽  
Debt Policy

Cities have started to rely more on debt in recent decades, in large part in response to changes occurring externally. In this paper the authors analyze the impact of important social, political, and economic factors on municipal debt behavior. They examine the 42 largest US cities from 1980 to 1990, using a pooled time-series regression model. It was found that, generally speaking, these factors had the effect of increasing cities' reliance on revenue debt, which is less accountable to the voters than full-faith and credit debt. It is difficult to say whether local officials have consciously pursued a policy of insulating municipal debt decisions from the voters. However, it is clear that these officials are responding to environmental cues that lead them to prefer revenue debt over general-obligation debt by a large margin. Recent research has shown that cities have historically pursued a ‘politics of circumvention’. With the demand for debt increasing as other means for financing local services are constrained the effects on the polity of these preferences warrant serious attention.

scholarly journals Relationship between daily suicide counts and temperature in England and Wales

2007 ◽  
Vol 191 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa A. Page ◽  
Shakoor Hajat ◽  
R. Sari Kovats
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuation ◽  
Daily Temperature ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Hot Weather ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

BackgroundSeasonal fluctuation in suicide has been observed in many populations. High temperature may contribute to this, but the effect of short-term fluctuations in temperature on suicide rates has not been studied.AimsTo assess the relationship between daily temperature and daily suicide counts in England and Wales between 1 January 1993 and 31 December 2003 and to establish whether heatwaves are associated with increased mortality from suicide.MethodTime-series regression analysis was used to explore and quantify the relationship between daily suicide counts and daily temperature. The impact of two heatwaves on suicide was estimated.ResultsNo spring or summer peak in suicide was found. Above 18 °, each 1 ° increase in mean temperature was associated with a 3.8 and 5.0% rise in suicide and violent suicide respectively. Suicide increased by 46.9% during the 1995 heatwave, whereas no change was seen during the 2003 heat wave.ConclusionsThere is increased risk of suicide during hot weather.

scholarly journals The time series regression analysis in evaluating the economic impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-210
Author(s):  
Utriweni Mukhaiyar ◽  
Devina Widyanti ◽  
Sandy Vantika
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Transfer Function Model ◽  
Function Model ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to determine the impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia on the USD/IDR exchange rate using the Transfer Function Model and Vector Autoregressive Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (VARMAX) Model. This paper uses daily data on the COVID-19 case in Indonesia, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the IDX Composite period from 1 March to 29 June 2020. The analysis shows: (1) the higher the increase of the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia will significantly weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate, (2) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia six days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.003%, (3) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia seven days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.17%, and (4) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia eight days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.24%.

The effects of the lower ignition propensity cigarettes standard in Estonia: time-series analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Indrek Saar
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Fire Safety ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Absolute Level ◽  
Counterfactual Models ◽  
Dynamic Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ignition Propensity

BackgroundIn 2011, the lower ignition propensity (LIP) standard for cigarettes was implemented in the European Union. Evidence about the impact of that safety measure is scarce.ObjectiveThe aim of this paper is to examine the effects of the LIP standard on fire safety in Estonia.MethodsThe absolute level of smoking-related fire incidents and related deaths was modelled using dynamic time-series regression analysis. The data about house fire incidents for the 2007–2013 period were obtained from the Estonian Rescue Board.ResultsImplementation of the LIP standard has reduced the monthly level of smoking-related fires by 6.2 (p<0.01, SE=1.95) incidents and by 26% (p<0.01, SE=9%) when estimated on the log scale. Slightly weaker evidence was found about the fatality reduction effects of the LIP regulation. All results were confirmed through counterfactual models for non-smoking-related fire incidents and deaths.ConclusionsThis paper indicates that implementation of the LIP cigarettes standard has improved fire safety in Estonia.

scholarly journals The Impact of Parties and Elections on Municipal Debt Policy in Mexico

Governance ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 621-639 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allyson Lucinda Benton ◽  
Heidi Jane M. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Municipal Debt ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Debt Policy

Assessing City Responses to Federal Subventions

1986 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 289-298 ◽  
Author(s):  
J W Fossett
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
General Purpose ◽  
Utility Functions ◽  
Federal Grants ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Local Officials ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Us Cities

This paper reports on a series of case studies in which the consequences are examined of the major buildup in federal grants to urban areas over the 1970s in eleven major US cities. Conventional economic models of the impact of this buildup are argued to rely overmuch on assumptions about the manner in which local officials perceive and structure choices, neglecting important program features and ignoring variations across place and time in the structure of utility functions and in the types of behavior seen as likely to achieve a desired outcome. The case studies suggest that local uses of federal funds are structured by the uncertainty in both level and form of grant receipts and by a propensity for risk-aversion behavior on the part of local general-purpose officials.

The Pied Piper of Crime in America: An Analysis of the Presidents’ and Public’s Agenda on Crime

2002 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Willard M. Oliver
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Presidential Rhetoric ◽  
Policy Area ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Public Response ◽  
The Public ◽  
State Of The Union ◽  
The Impact

The theory of presidential influence over public opinion is used to predict the impact of presidential rhetoric on crime over the public’s concern for crime being “the most important problem facing the nation.” It is hypothesized that the more attention presidents give to the policy area of crime in the their State of the Union Addresses, the more concerned the public becomes with crime. Utilizing a time-series regression analysis of data collected from a content analysis of presidents’ State of the Union addresses on the Gallup Poll’s Most Important Problem series from 1946 to 1996, the analysis demonstrates that presidential mention of crime seems to elicit a public response, thus influencing public opinion of crime with a decay effect of approximately 1 year.

When the President Speaks…

2011 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 456-469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Willard M. Oliver ◽  
Joshua Hill ◽  
Nancy E. Marion
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Drug Use ◽  
Illicit Drugs ◽  
Presidential Rhetoric ◽  
Public Concern ◽  
Policy Area ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
The Public ◽  
State Of The Union ◽  
The Impact

The theory of presidential influence over public opinion is used to predict the impact of presidential rhetoric on the public’s concern regarding drug use as “the most important problem (MIP) facing the nation.” It is hypothesized that the more attention presidents give to the policy area of drugs in their state of the union (SOTU) addresses, the more concerned the public becomes with drug use. Using a time-series regression analysis of data collected from a content analysis of presidents’SOTU speeches regressed on the Gallup Poll’s MIP series from 1946 to 2010, the findings suggest that presidential mentions of drugs in the SOTU addresses influence public concern for illicit drugs in America.

scholarly journals Coronametrics: The UK turns the corner

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Goliński ◽  
Peter Spencer
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
List Type ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract*There are many ways of analyzing the progress of an epidemic, but when it comes to short term forecasting, it is very hard to beat a simple time series regression model. These are good at allowing for the noise in day to day observations, extracting the trend and projecting it forward.*Our regression models are designed to exploit this, using the daily statistics released by PHE and NHSE. These strongly suggest that the tide has turned and that taking one day with the next, the national figures for deaths from this virus will now fall back noticeably, easing the pressure on the NHS and its staff.*There is still a huge range of uncertainty associated with any forecast. The model is currently predicting a total of 113,000 admissions to UK hospitals by the end of April and that 19,000 people will die from the virus in English hospitals by then. There is a 1 in 20 chance that the mortality figures could flatten out more quickly, with around 1,000 more deaths occurring by the end of April. However, there is the same risk that this figure continues to mount, rising to a total of 24,000 by the end of the month. On current trends, the number of deaths in the UK is likely to be 10% higher than the number in England.*Longer term, the impact of the virus will depend critically upon the likely relaxation of the current government strategy of suppression.

scholarly journals The impact of chest pain center on treatment delay of STEMI patients: a time series study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaolin Sun ◽  
Bo Yao ◽  
Kexin Shi ◽  
Yajiong Xue ◽  
Huigang Liang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Chest Pain ◽  
Informed Consent ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Treatment Delay ◽  
Hospital Treatment ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Large Hospital ◽  
Pain Center ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Objective To study the effect of the establishment of a Chest Pain Center (CPC) on the treatment delay of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients and the influencing factors of treatment delay in a large hospital in China. Methods The study subjects are 318 STEMI patients admitted between August 2016 and July 2019 to a large general hospital in Henan, China. Data were extracted from the electronic medical records after removing personal identifiable information. The interrupted time series regression was used to analyze the treatment delay of patients before and after the CPC establishment. Results After the CPC establishment, the patients’ pre-hospital and in-hospital treatment delays were significantly reduced. SO-to-FMC (Symptom Onset to First Medical Contact time) decreased by 49.237 min and D-to-B (Door to Balloon time) decreased by 21.931 min immediately after the CPC establishment. In addition, SO-to-FMC delay is significantly correlated with age, occupation, nocturnal onset, and the way to hospital. D-to-B delay is significantly associated with time from initial diagnosis to informed consent of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), catheterization lab activation time, and time for PCI informed consent. Conclusion The CPC significantly reduced the treatment delay of STEMI patients undergoing PCI.

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