scholarly journals Relationship between daily suicide counts and temperature in England and Wales

2007 ◽  
Vol 191 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa A. Page ◽  
Shakoor Hajat ◽  
R. Sari Kovats
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuation ◽  
Daily Temperature ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Hot Weather ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

BackgroundSeasonal fluctuation in suicide has been observed in many populations. High temperature may contribute to this, but the effect of short-term fluctuations in temperature on suicide rates has not been studied.AimsTo assess the relationship between daily temperature and daily suicide counts in England and Wales between 1 January 1993 and 31 December 2003 and to establish whether heatwaves are associated with increased mortality from suicide.MethodTime-series regression analysis was used to explore and quantify the relationship between daily suicide counts and daily temperature. The impact of two heatwaves on suicide was estimated.ResultsNo spring or summer peak in suicide was found. Above 18 °, each 1 ° increase in mean temperature was associated with a 3.8 and 5.0% rise in suicide and violent suicide respectively. Suicide increased by 46.9% during the 1995 heatwave, whereas no change was seen during the 2003 heat wave.ConclusionsThere is increased risk of suicide during hot weather.

scholarly journals Coronametrics: The UK turns the corner

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Goliński ◽  
Peter Spencer
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
List Type ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract*There are many ways of analyzing the progress of an epidemic, but when it comes to short term forecasting, it is very hard to beat a simple time series regression model. These are good at allowing for the noise in day to day observations, extracting the trend and projecting it forward.*Our regression models are designed to exploit this, using the daily statistics released by PHE and NHSE. These strongly suggest that the tide has turned and that taking one day with the next, the national figures for deaths from this virus will now fall back noticeably, easing the pressure on the NHS and its staff.*There is still a huge range of uncertainty associated with any forecast. The model is currently predicting a total of 113,000 admissions to UK hospitals by the end of April and that 19,000 people will die from the virus in English hospitals by then. There is a 1 in 20 chance that the mortality figures could flatten out more quickly, with around 1,000 more deaths occurring by the end of April. However, there is the same risk that this figure continues to mount, rising to a total of 24,000 by the end of the month. On current trends, the number of deaths in the UK is likely to be 10% higher than the number in England.*Longer term, the impact of the virus will depend critically upon the likely relaxation of the current government strategy of suppression.

scholarly journals The relationship between maximal expiratory pressure values and critical outcomes in mechanically ventilated patients: a post hoc analysis of an observational study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Combret ◽  
Guillaume Prieur ◽  
Roger Hilfiker ◽  
Francis-Edouard Gravier ◽  
Pauline Smondack ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Observational Study ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Premature Death ◽  
Extubation Failure ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Expiratory Muscle ◽  
Maximal Expiratory Pressure ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background Little interest has been paid to expiratory muscle strength, and the impact of expiratory muscle weakness on critical outcomes is not known. Very few studies assessed the relationship between maximal expiratory pressure (MEP) and critical outcomes. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between MEP and critical outcomes. Methods This work was a secondary analysis of a prospective, observational study of adult patients who required mechanical ventilation for ≥ 24 h in an 18-bed ICU. MEP was assessed before extubation after a successful, spontaneous breathing trial. The relationships between MEP and extubation failure, and short-term (30 days) mortality, were investigated. Univariate logistic regressions were computed to investigate the relationship between MEP values and critical outcomes. Two multivariate analyses, with and without maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP), both adjusted using principal component analysis, were undertaken. Unadjusted and adjusted ROC curves were computed to compare the respective ability of MEP, MIP and the combination of both measures to discriminate patients with and without extubation failure or premature death. Results One hundred and twenty-four patients were included. Median age was 66 years (IQR 18) and median mechanical ventilation duration was 7 days (IQR 6). Extubation failure rate was 15% (18/124 patients) and the rate for 30-day mortality was 11% (14/124 patient). Higher MEP values were significantly associated with a lower risk of extubation failure in the univariate analysis [OR 0.96 95% CI (0.93–0.98)], but not with short-term mortality. MEP was independently linked with extubation failure when MIP was not included in the multivariate model, but not when it was included, despite limited collinearity between these variables. This study was not able to differentiate the respective abilities of MEP, MIP, and their combination to discriminate patients with extubation failure or premature death (adjusted AUC for the combination of MEP and MIP: 0.825 and 0.650 for extubation failure and premature death, respectively). Conclusions MEP is related to extubation failure. But, the results did not support its use as a substitute for MIP, since the relationship between MEP and critical outcomes was no longer significant when MIP was included. The use of MIP and MEP measurements combined did not reach higher discriminative capacities for critical outcomes that MEP or MIP alone. Trial Registration This study was retrospectively registered at https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02363231?cond=NCT02363231&draw=2&rank=1 (NCT02363231) in 13 February 2015

Measuring Value Change in Western Industrialized Societies: The Impact of Unemployment

1991 ◽  
Vol 85 (3) ◽  
pp. 905-920 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold D. Clarke ◽  
Nitish Dutt
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Value Change ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Past ◽  
Value Priorities ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Impact

During the past two decades a four-item battery administered in biannual Euro-Barometer surveys has been used to measure changing value priorities in Western European countries. We provide evidence that the measure is seriously flawed. Pooled cross-sectional time series analyses for the 1976–86 period reveal that the Euro-Barometer postmaterialist-materialist value index and two of its components are very sensitive to short-term changes in economic conditions, and that the failure to include a statement about unemployment in the four-item values battery accounts for much of the apparent growth of postmaterialist values in several countries after 1980. The aggregate-level findings are buttressed by analyses of panel data from three countries.

Harassment at Work as Discrimination: The Current Debate in England and Wales

1998 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-114
Author(s):  
Pauline Roberts ◽  
Lucy Vickers
Keyword(s):  
Race Relations ◽  
Sex Discrimination ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Racial Harassment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Victims Of Bullying ◽  
Court Of Appeal

In 1996–97 there were a number of significant decisions which extended the scope of employers' liability for sexual and racial harassment at work, based upon the provisions of the Sex Discrimination Act 1975 and the Race Relations Act 1976. This article seeks to analyse the impact of these recent cases. It began by considering the relationship between the concepts of ‘harassment’ and ‘discrimination’ and the problems inherent in using the anti-discrimination legislation to deal with harassment and bullying at work; we then focus on the recently demonstrated ‘purposive’ approach of the Employment Appeal Tribunal and Court of Appeal in interpreting the statutes and consider how this combats the weaknesses identified. Alternative forms of relief will be briefly considered, in particular the recently enacted Protection from Harassment Act 1997. The authors, while welcoming the recent decisions, argue that there are some victims of bullying who remain outside the protection of the existing anti-discrimination legislation (as they do not fall within any of the groups identified for protection), notwithstanding the robust advances of the EAT. We suggest that the Protection from Harassment Act may not completely fill this gap.

scholarly journals THE INNOVATIVE POTENTIAL OF HUMAN RESOURCES AS A FACTOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES MARKET IN UKRAINE

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (1(78)) ◽  
pp. 58-74
Author(s):  
I.V. GRYSHCHENKO ◽  
V.F. GRYSHCHENKO
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Innovative Technologies ◽  
Innovation Capacity ◽  
Innovative Potential ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Topicality. The successful operation of an economic entity, in the development of the innovative technologies market, is largely determined by the innovative potential of its human resources - by the people who work for it - their knowledge, talents, and skills. The wrong combination of these elements, lack of employees who have the necessary qualifications, lack of harmony in the relationship between employers and employees can inevitably lead to serious financial and economic problems. Improving the efficiency of the use of the innovative potential of human resources in the development of the innovative technologies market is one of the most urgent tasks for any business entity. The competitive advantages of business entities, financial and economic indicators of their activity, ensuring sustainable development of entrepreneurship in general, are depending on the degree and balance of its use. Aim and tasks. The purpose of the work is to analyze and develop on its basis recommendations for increasing the level of the innovative potential of human resources in the context of the development of the innovative technologies market in Ukraine. Research results. The article analyzes the main structural elements of the innovative potential of human resources and identifies the factors influencing its level in Ukraine. The results of the analysis allowed us to build an economic and mathematical model of the relationship between innovation capacity, as an indicator of the development of the innovative technologies market and components of the innovative potential of human resources in Ukraine. This made it possible to predict the level of innovation capacity as an indicator of the innovative technologies market development in Ukraine in the short term. The obtained results allowed us to identify problems and develop recommendations for increasing the level of the innovative potential of human resources in the context of the innovative technologies market development in Ukraine. Conclusion. Based on the developed economic and mathematical model, calculations were made that characterize the relationship between innovation capacity as an indicator of the innovative technologies market development and components of the innovative potential of human resources in Ukraine. As shown in the calculations, the proposed economic and mathematical model with high accuracy allows to assess the impact of components of the innovative potential of human resources on innovation capacity and identify major obstacles for its development, which made it possible to predict trends in innovation capacity as an indicator of the innovative technologies market development in Ukraine in the short term.

scholarly journals The time series regression analysis in evaluating the economic impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-210
Author(s):  
Utriweni Mukhaiyar ◽  
Devina Widyanti ◽  
Sandy Vantika
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Transfer Function Model ◽  
Function Model ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to determine the impact of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia on the USD/IDR exchange rate using the Transfer Function Model and Vector Autoregressive Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors (VARMAX) Model. This paper uses daily data on the COVID-19 case in Indonesia, the USD/IDR exchange rate, and the IDX Composite period from 1 March to 29 June 2020. The analysis shows: (1) the higher the increase of the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia will significantly weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate, (2) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia six days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.003%, (3) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia seven days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.17%, and (4) an increase of 1% in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia eight days ago will weaken the USD/IDR exchange rate by 0.24%.

scholarly journals Risks and the influence of negative interest rates on economic activity: a case study of Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-41
Author(s):  
Liběna Černohorská ◽  
Darina Kubicová
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of negative interest rates on economic activity in a selected group of countries, in particular Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland, for the period 2009–2018. The central banks of these countries were among the first to implement negative interest rates to revive the economic growth. Therefore, this study analyzed long- and short-term relationships between interest rates announced by central banks and gross domestic product and blue chip stock indices. Time series analysis was conducted using Engle-Granger cointegration analysis and Granger causality testing to identify long- and short-term relationship. The first step, using the Akaike criteria, was to determine the optimal delay of the entire time interval for the analyzed periods. Time series that seem to be stationary were excluded based on the results of the Dickey-Fuller test. Further testing continued with the Engle-Granger test if the conditions were met. It was designed to identify co-integration relationships that would show correlation between the selected variables. These tests showed that at a significance level of 0.05, there is no co-integration between any time series in the countries analyzed. On the basis of these analyses, it was determined that there were no long-term relationships between interest rates and GDP or stock indices for these countries during the monitored time period. Using Granger causality, the study only confirmed short-term relationship between interest rates and GDP for all examined countries, though not between interest rates and the stock indices. Acknowledgment The paper has been created with the financial support of The Czech Science Foundation GACR 18-05244S – Innovative Approaches to Credit Risk Management.

The impact of family members on the self-reported health of older men and women in a rural area of Bangladesh

2004 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 903-920 ◽  
Author(s):  
OMAR RAHMAN ◽  
JANE MENKEN ◽  
RANDALL KUHN
Keyword(s):  
Rural Area ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
Older Men ◽  
Older Woman ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Reported Health ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Older Men And Women

The purpose of this study is to examine whether the co-residence of spouses and children affects self-reported general health among older men and women in a rural area of Bangladesh. Binary logistic regression has been used to explore the impact of spouses and children on self-reported health, with particular attention to the gender of children and interactions with chronic disease. The data are from the Matlab Health and Socio-Economic Survey. A sample of 765 women and 979 men aged 60 or more years with at least one surviving child was available. The principal result is that for an older woman, optimum self-reported health is most likely when a spouse and at least one son and one daughter are present. Any deviation from this family pattern (either no spouse or children of only one sex) leads to a significantly increased risk of poor self-reported health. On the other hand, among older men there were no differences in self-reported health among the various spouse-child combinations. The relationship between a balanced gender distribution of children and optimum self-reported health among older women may explain the levelling out of fertility at roughly three children per women despite intensive family planning promotion in the area. Further reductions in fertility (an important policy concern) may depend on improving the substitutability of sons and daughters in the support of their elderly mothers.

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