scholarly journals Coronametrics: The UK turns the corner

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Goliński ◽  
Peter Spencer
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
List Type ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract*There are many ways of analyzing the progress of an epidemic, but when it comes to short term forecasting, it is very hard to beat a simple time series regression model. These are good at allowing for the noise in day to day observations, extracting the trend and projecting it forward.*Our regression models are designed to exploit this, using the daily statistics released by PHE and NHSE. These strongly suggest that the tide has turned and that taking one day with the next, the national figures for deaths from this virus will now fall back noticeably, easing the pressure on the NHS and its staff.*There is still a huge range of uncertainty associated with any forecast. The model is currently predicting a total of 113,000 admissions to UK hospitals by the end of April and that 19,000 people will die from the virus in English hospitals by then. There is a 1 in 20 chance that the mortality figures could flatten out more quickly, with around 1,000 more deaths occurring by the end of April. However, there is the same risk that this figure continues to mount, rising to a total of 24,000 by the end of the month. On current trends, the number of deaths in the UK is likely to be 10% higher than the number in England.*Longer term, the impact of the virus will depend critically upon the likely relaxation of the current government strategy of suppression.

scholarly journals Relationship between daily suicide counts and temperature in England and Wales

2007 ◽  
Vol 191 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa A. Page ◽  
Shakoor Hajat ◽  
R. Sari Kovats
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuation ◽  
Daily Temperature ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Hot Weather ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

BackgroundSeasonal fluctuation in suicide has been observed in many populations. High temperature may contribute to this, but the effect of short-term fluctuations in temperature on suicide rates has not been studied.AimsTo assess the relationship between daily temperature and daily suicide counts in England and Wales between 1 January 1993 and 31 December 2003 and to establish whether heatwaves are associated with increased mortality from suicide.MethodTime-series regression analysis was used to explore and quantify the relationship between daily suicide counts and daily temperature. The impact of two heatwaves on suicide was estimated.ResultsNo spring or summer peak in suicide was found. Above 18 °, each 1 ° increase in mean temperature was associated with a 3.8 and 5.0% rise in suicide and violent suicide respectively. Suicide increased by 46.9% during the 1995 heatwave, whereas no change was seen during the 2003 heat wave.ConclusionsThere is increased risk of suicide during hot weather.

scholarly journals Real-Time Prediction of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Thailand using Simple Model-Free Method and Time Series Regression Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (14) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rati WONGSATHAN
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Gaussian Function ◽  
Logistic Function ◽  
Hyperbolic Tangent ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Tangent Function

The novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was declared a global health crisis. The real-time accurate and predictive model of the number of infected cases could help inform the government of providing medical assistance and public health decision-making. This work is to model the ongoing COVID-19 spread in Thailand during the 1st and 2nd phases of the pandemic using the simple but powerful method based on the model-free and time series regression models. By employing the curve fitting, the model-free method using the logistic function, hyperbolic tangent function, and Gaussian function was applied to predict the number of newly infected patients and accumulate the total number of cases, including peak and viral cessation (ending) date. Alternatively, with a significant time-lag of historical data input, the regression model predicts those parameters from 1-day-ahead to 1-month-ahead. To obtain optimal prediction models, the parameters of the model-free method are fine-tuned through the genetic algorithm, whereas the generalized least squares update the parameters of the regression model. Assuming the future trend continues to follow the past pattern, the expected total number of patients is approximately 2,689 - 3,000 cases. The estimated viral cessation dates are May 2, 2020 (using Gaussian function), May 4, 2020 (using a hyperbolic function), and June 5, 2020 (using a logistic function), whereas the peak time occurred on April 5, 2020. Moreover, the model-free method performs well for long-term prediction, whereas the regression model is suitable for short-term prediction. Furthermore, the performances of the regression models yield a highly accurate forecast with lower RMSE and higher R2 up to 1-week-ahead. HIGHLIGHTS COVID-19 model for Thailand during the first and second phases of the epidemic The model-free method using the logistic function, hyperbolic tangent function, and Gaussian function  applied to predict the basic measures of the outbreak Regression model predicts those measures from one-day-ahead to one-month-ahead The parameters of the model-free method are fine-tuned through the genetic algorithm  GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

Alternative Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Indicators in Kazakhstan

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Saken Pirmakhanov
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Error Prediction ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
In Virtue Of ◽  
Auto Regression

This paper indicates special aspects of using vector auto-regression models to forecast rates of basic macroeconomic indicators in short term. In particular, traditional vector auto-regression model, Bayesian vector auto-regression model and factor augmented vector auto-regression model are shown. For parameter estimation of these models the author uses time series of Kazakhstani macroeconomic indicators between 1996 and 2015 quarterly. In virtue of mean-root-square error prediction the conclusion of optimal model is going to be chosen.

scholarly journals Accounting for local meteorological effects in the ozone time-series of Lovozero (Kola Peninsula)

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 655-676 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. A. Tarasova ◽  
A. Y. Karpetchko
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Kola Peninsula ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Meteorological Effects

Abstract. The impact of local meteorological conditions on surface ozone was studied by means of regression models creation. Ozone and meteorological parameters measured at Lovozero site (250 m a.s.l., 68.5° N, 35.0° E, Kola Peninsula) for the period of 1999–2000 were used. The regression model of daily mean ozone concentrations on the meteorological parameters like temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed can explain up to 70% of the ozone variability, if the seasonal cycle is also considered. A regression model was created for separated time scales of the variables. The separation of short-term, synoptical and seasonal components was done by means of Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filtering. The synoptical scale variations were chosen as the most informative from the point of their relation with meteorological parameters. About 40% of synoptical scale variations of surface ozone can be explained by regression model on separated meteo parameters that is 30% more efficient than ozone residuals usage.

scholarly journals Improving short-term forecasting during ramp events by means of Regime-Switching Artificial Neural Networks

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Gallego ◽  
A. Costa ◽  
A. Cuerva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Neural Nets ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Ramp Events ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Abstract. Ramp events are large rapid variations within wind power time series. Ramp forecasting can benefit from specific strategies so as to particularly take into account these shifts in the wind power output dynamic. In the short-term context (characterized by prediction horizons from minutes to a few days), a Regime-Switching (RS) model based on Artificial Neural Nets (ANN) is proposed. The objective is to identify three regimes in the wind power time series: Ramp-up, Ramp-down and No-ramp regime. An on-line regime assessment methodology is also proposed, based on a local gradient criterion. The RS-ANN model is compared to a single-ANN model (without regime discrimination), concluding that the regime-switching strategy leads to significant improvements for one-hour ahead forecasts, mainly due to the improvements obtained during ramp-up events. Including other explanatory variables (NWP outputs, local measurements) during the regime assessment could eventually improve forecasts for further horizons.

Measuring Value Change in Western Industrialized Societies: The Impact of Unemployment

1991 ◽  
Vol 85 (3) ◽  
pp. 905-920 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold D. Clarke ◽  
Nitish Dutt
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Value Change ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Past ◽  
Value Priorities ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Impact

During the past two decades a four-item battery administered in biannual Euro-Barometer surveys has been used to measure changing value priorities in Western European countries. We provide evidence that the measure is seriously flawed. Pooled cross-sectional time series analyses for the 1976–86 period reveal that the Euro-Barometer postmaterialist-materialist value index and two of its components are very sensitive to short-term changes in economic conditions, and that the failure to include a statement about unemployment in the four-item values battery accounts for much of the apparent growth of postmaterialist values in several countries after 1980. The aggregate-level findings are buttressed by analyses of panel data from three countries.

The Lived Experience of Financialization at the UK Financial Fringe

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
LINDSEY APPLEYARD ◽  
CARL PACKMAN ◽  
JORDON LAZELL ◽  
HUSSAN ASLAM
Keyword(s):  
Lived Experience ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Credit Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Dramatic Decline ◽  
The Everyday ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The financialization of everyday life has received considerable attention since the 2008 global financial crisis. Financialization is thought to have created active financial subjects through the ability to participate in mainstream financial services. While the lived experience of these mainstream financial subjects has been the subject of close scrutiny, the experiences of financial subjects at the financial fringe have been rarely considered. In the UK, for example, the introduction of High-Cost, Short-Term Credit [HCSTC] or payday loan regulation was designed to protect vulnerable people from accessing unaffordable credit. Exploring the impact of HCSTC regulation is important due to the dramatic decline of the high-cost credit market which helped meet essential needs in an era of austerity. As such, the paper examines the impact of the HCSTC regulation on sixty-four financially marginalized individuals in the UK that are unable to access payday loans. First, we identify the range of socioeconomic strategies that individuals employ to manage their finances to create a typology of financial subjectivity at the financial fringe. Second, we demonstrate how the temporal and precarious nature of financial inclusion at the financial fringe adds nuance to existing debates of the everyday lived experience of financialization.

Colostomy irrigation (part 2): contraindications, barriers to uptake, adherence and nurse education

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 22-27
Author(s):  
Hayley Page
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Nursing Support ◽  
Potential Barriers ◽  
Colostomy Irrigation ◽  
Faecal Continence ◽  
Peristomal Skin ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Postoperative Education

Colostomy irrigation (CI) involves instillation of water via the stoma into the colon, where it stimulates peristalsis, causing expulsion of stool and water from the stoma. CI allows colostomates to regain controlled evacuation and faecal continence. The first article considered the impact of CI on colostomates' quality of life, including flatus, odour and peristomal skin health, as well as psychological wellbeing. This second article explores the potential barriers to successfully adopting CI. The uptake of CI in the UK remains relatively low. CI is contraindicated in active disease, and there is debate about whether it is suitable in colostomates with stoma-related complications and of different ages. Barriers to uptake among stoma care nurses include misconceptions about safety, physician consent and cost, as well as issues relating to commencement time and the setting and pace of postoperative education. For colostomates, barriers to adherence include short-term issues that can be resolved with nursing support, as well as the time taken to perform irrigation and changes related to older age. Many of these barriers could be overcome with robust education programmes.

THE IMPACT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES ON THE REGIONS’ ECONOMIC SECURITY

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuliya Tymchyshyn ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Information Technologies ◽  
Organizational Structures ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Deep Penetration ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Space ◽  
Business Entities ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
The Impact

The article highlights the impact of information technology on the economic security of regions and threats to economic security of the region that arise from the use of information technology. The system of economic security of the region in the context of development and application of information technologies is considered, which should include the following elements: diagnostics and identification of the existing state of economic security of the region; identification of threats to the economic security of the region from the use of information technology by business entities and from trends and problems in the development of the IT sector in the region; assessment of identified threats; development of effective mechanisms for their prevention; ensuring the increase of the level of economic security of the region with observance of the balance of national, regional and local interests; monitoring the level of economic security of the region. The main tasks of monitoring the economic security of the region in the context of development for the use of information technology are analyzed: monitoring the state of development of the IT sphere of the region and the level of ICT use in the activities of enterprises; timely detection of changes occurring in the IT sphere of the region and in the activities of economic entities of the region in the process of using information technology, and the reasons that caused them; prevention of negative trends leading to the formation and development of tensions in the IT sphere and socio-economic space of the region to prevent threats to its economic security; implementation of short-term forecasting of trends in the most important processes in the IT sphere of the region and in the functioning of economic entities from other sectors of the economy, due to the widespread use of IT in commercial, management and production activities; assessment of the effectiveness of methods, organizational structures and processes of managing the economic security of the region in terms of information development of society and the deep penetration of IT in various areas of management and economic activity at the regional level. The principles of monitoring the economic security of the region in the context of development and application of information technologies are revealed. The requirements to be met by the mechanism of economic security of the region, related to the intensification of informatization processes and the development of the IT sphere, are described. The functions that should be performed by the mechanism of economic security of the region (MESR) related to the intensification of informatization processes and the development of the IT sphere are substantiated. The main groups of computer crimes with the use of information computer technologies are identified, which have an extremely sharp impact on the economic condition of both a particular enterprise and the region as a whole.

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