scholarly journals Using time-use diaries to track changing behavior across successive stages of COVID-19 social restrictions

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (35) ◽  
pp. e2101724118
Author(s):  
Oriel Sullivan ◽  
Jonathan Gershuny ◽  
Almudena Sevilla ◽  
Francesca Foliano ◽  
Margarita Vega-Rapun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Context ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Time Use ◽  
Work Time ◽  
High Risk Behaviors ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Daily Behavior ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels

How did people change their behavior over the different phases of the UK COVID-19 restrictions, and how did these changes affect their risk of being exposed to infection? Time-use diary surveys are unique in providing a complete chronicle of daily behavior: 24-h continuous records of the populations’ activities, their social context, and their location. We present results from four such surveys, collected in real time from representative UK samples, both before and at three points over the course of the current pandemic. Comparing across the four waves, we find evidence of substantial changes in the UK population’s behavior relating to activities, locations, and social context. We assign different levels of risk to combinations of activities, locations, and copresence to compare risk-related behavior across successive “lockdowns.” We find evidence that during the second lockdown (November 2020), there was an increase in high-risk behaviors relative to the first (starting March 2020). This increase is shown to be associated with more paid work time in the workplace. At a time when capacity is still limited both in respect of immunization and track–trace technology, governments must continue to rely on changes in people’s daily behaviors to contain the spread of COVID-19 and similar viruses. Time-use diary information of this type, collected in real time across the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, can provide policy makers with information to assess and quantify changes in daily behaviors and the impact they are likely to have on overall behavioral-associated risks.

scholarly journals Using time use diaries to track changing behavior across successive stages of COVID-19 social restrictions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Gershuny ◽  
Oriel Sullivan ◽  
Almudena Sevilla ◽  
Margarita Vega-Rapun ◽  
Francesca Foliano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Context ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Time Use ◽  
Major Change ◽  
Comprehensive Information ◽  
Gender And Age ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Uk

AbstractWe present analyses of 24-hour time use diary records of the UK population’s activities, their social context and their location, collected in real time from four successive waves of representative UK samples, both before, and during, the current COVID-19 pandemic. We show changes in behavioral response to social restrictions at three time-points during the pandemic, including across two nationwide lockdowns. Comparing samples across the four waves, we find evidence of substantial changes in the population’s activities, locations and social interactions, which may be interpreted as direct responses to changes in regulations. One of our main motivations was to compare risk-related behavior across the first and second lockdowns. We find suggestive evidence that the second lockdown (recorded late November 2020) was less strictly adhered to than the first (recorded May- June 2020). Holding constant gender, age and social grade, the population spent on average 32 more minutes per day in high risk activities in late November 2020 than in first lockdown. Disaggregating by gender and age group, the difference was found to be statistically significant for all groups, with the exception of those aged 55 and over.Significance statementWhat do people do during lockdown? This set of data is unique in providing time use diary information in real time on changing behavior in the UK in response to each major change in social restrictions. This enables us to directly compare 24-hour continuous and comprehensive information on the populations’ activities, their social context and their location, comparing risk- related behavior during different phases of social restrictions. Holding constant gender, age and social grade, we show that the UK population spent on average 32 more minutes per day in high risk activities in the second UK lockdown in November 2020 than in first lockdown (starting March 2020). This difference was statistically significant.

scholarly journals European Youth Work Policy and Young People’s Experience of Open Access Youth Work

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
JON ORD ◽  
MARC CARLETTI ◽  
DANIELE MORCIANO ◽  
LASSE SIURALA ◽  
CHRISTOPHE DANSAC ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Open Access ◽  
Young People ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Youth Work ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
European Youth

Abstract This article examines young people’s experiences of open access youth work in settings in the UK, Finland, Estonia, Italy and France. It analyses 844 individual narratives from young people, which communicate the impact of youthwork on their lives. These accounts are then analysed in the light of the European youth work policy goals. It concludes that it is encouraging that what young people identify as the positive impact of youth work are broadly consistent with many of these goals. There are however some disparities which require attention. These include the importance young people place on the social context of youth work, such as friendship, which is largely absent in EU youth work policy; as well as the importance placed on experiential learning. The paper also highlights a tension between ‘top down’ policy formulation and the ‘youth centric’ practices of youth work. It concludes with a reminder to policy makers that for youth work to remain successful the spaces and places for young people must remain meaningful to them ‘on their terms’.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of the tier system on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. e050346
Author(s):  
Daniel J Laydon ◽  
Swapnil Mishra ◽  
Wes R Hinsley ◽  
Pantelis Samartsidis ◽  
Seth Flaxman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Time Reproduction ◽  
Tier System ◽  
The Uk ◽  
National Trends ◽  
Tier 3 ◽  
The Impact

ObjectiveTo measure the effects of the tier system on the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns, before the emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern.DesignThis is a modelling study combining estimates of real-time reproduction number Rt (derived from UK case, death and serological survey data) with publicly available data on regional non-pharmaceutical interventions. We fit a Bayesian hierarchical model with latent factors using these quantities to account for broader national trends in addition to subnational effects from tiers.SettingThe UK at lower tier local authority (LTLA) level. 310 LTLAs were included in the analysis.Primary and secondary outcome measuresReduction in real-time reproduction number Rt.ResultsNationally, transmission increased between July and late September, regional differences notwithstanding. Immediately prior to the introduction of the tier system, Rt averaged 1.3 (0.9–1.6) across LTLAs, but declined to an average of 1.1 (0.86–1.42) 2 weeks later. Decline in transmission was not solely attributable to tiers. Tier 1 had negligible effects. Tiers 2 and 3, respectively, reduced transmission by 6% (5%–7%) and 23% (21%–25%). 288 LTLAs (93%) would have begun to suppress their epidemics if every LTLA had gone into tier 3 by the second national lockdown, whereas only 90 (29%) did so in reality.ConclusionsThe relatively small effect sizes found in this analysis demonstrate that interventions at least as stringent as tier 3 are required to suppress transmission, especially considering more transmissible variants, at least until effective vaccination is widespread or much greater population immunity has amassed.

Understanding Affordability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey Meen ◽  
Christine Whitehead
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Home Ownership ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Household Formation ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Developed World ◽  
The Impact

Affordability is, perhaps, the greatest housing problem facing households today, both in the UK and internationally. Even though most households are now well housed, hardship is disproportionately concentrated among low-income and younger households. Our failure to deal with their problems is what makes housing so frustrating. But, to improve outcomes, we have to understand the complex economic and political forces which underlie their continued prevalence. There are no costless solutions, but there are new policy directions that can be explored in addition to those that have dominated in recent years. The first, analytic, part of the book considers the factors that determine house prices and rents, household formation and tenure, housing construction and the roles played by housing finance and taxation. The second part turns to examine the impact of past policy and the possibilities for improvement - discussing supply and the impact of planning regulation, supply subsidies, subsidies to low-income tenants and attempts to increase home ownership. Rather than advocating a particular set of policies, the aim is to consider the balance of policies; the constraints under which housing policy operates; what can realistically be achieved; the structural changes that would need to occur; and the significant sacrifices that would have to be made by some groups if there are to be improvements for others. Our emphasis is on the UK but throughout the book we also draw on international experience and our conclusions have relevance to analysts and policy makers across the developed world.

scholarly journals Protocol for a Mixed-Method Investigation of the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Gambling Practices, Experiences and Marketing in the UK: The “Betting and Gaming COVID-19 Impact Study”

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (22) ◽  
pp. 8449
Author(s):  
Kate Hunt ◽  
Nathan Critchlow ◽  
Ashley Brown ◽  
Christopher Bunn ◽  
Fiona Dobbie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Mixed Method ◽  
Qualitative Interviews ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Treatment Providers ◽  
Sports Events ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented restrictions on people’s movements and interactions, as well as the cancellation of major sports events and social activities, directly altering the gambling landscape. There is urgent need to provide regulators, policy makers and treatment providers with evidence on the patterns and context of gambling during COVID-19 and its aftermath. This protocol describes a study addressing the following three questions: (1) How has COVID-19 changed gambling practices and the risk factors for, and experience of, gambling harms? (2) What is the effect of COVID-19 on gambling marketing? (3) How has COVID-19 changed high risk groups’ gambling experiences and practices? This mixed-method study focuses on two groups, namely young adults and sports bettors. In workpackage-1, we will extend an existing longitudinal survey of gambling in young adults (aged 16–24 years) (first wave conducted June–August 2019), adding COVID-19-related questions to the second wave (July–August 2020) and extending to a third wave in 2021; and undertake a survey of sports bettors in the UK (baseline n = 4000, ~July–August 2020), with follow-ups in ~October–November 2020 and ~February-March 2021. In workpackage-2, we will examine changes in expenditure on paid-for gambling advertising from January 2019 to July 2021 and undertake a mixed-method content analysis of a random sample of paid-for gambling advertising (n ~ 200) and social media marketing (n ~ 100) during the initial COVID-19 “lockdown”. Workpackage-3 will involve qualitative interviews with a purposive sample of (a) young adults (aged 18–24 years) and (b) sports bettors.

A Study on Methodologies for Research Impact Assessment: Responses of the UK Research Councils to the Warry Report

2010 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 393-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Luiz de Campos
Keyword(s):  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Research Impact ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Research Impact Assessment ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Research Councils ◽  
The Impact

The experience of the UK Research Councils in assessing the impacts of their research funding is discussed, including a report on the findings of research which reviewed the impact studies implemented by the Research Councils. The response of the Councils to the challenge of demonstrating the impacts of their funding and the main methodologies used are presented and the implications of both for the Research Councils and policy makers elsewhere are outlined.

scholarly journals Are citizen juries and assemblies on climate change driving democratic climate policymaking? An exploration of two case studies in the United Kingdom

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Wells ◽  
Candice Howarth ◽  
Lina I. Brand-Correa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
Comparative Case Study ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Elected Representatives ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In light of increasing pressure to deliver climate action targets, and the growing role of citizens in raising the importance of the issue, deliberative democratic processes (e.g. Citizen Juries and Citizen Assemblies) on climate change are increasingly being used to provide a voice to citizens in climate change decision-making. Through a comparative case study of two processes that ran in the UK in 2019 (the Leeds Climate Change Citizens’ Jury and the Oxford Citizens’ Assembly on Climate Change), this paper investigates how far Citizen Assemblies and Juries on climate change are increasing citizen engagement on climate change and creating more citizen-centred climate policy-making. Interviews were conducted with policy-makers, councillors, professional facilitators and others involved in running these processes to assess motivations for conducting these, their structure and the impact and influence they had. The findings suggest the impact of these processes is not uniform: they have an indirect impact on policymaking by creating momentum around climate action and supporting the introduction of pre-planned or pre-existing policies rather than a direct impact by being truly being citizen-centred policymaking processes or conducive to new climate policy. We conclude with reflections on how these processes give elected representatives a public mandate on climate change, that they help to identify more nuanced and in-depth public opinions in a fair and informed way, yet it can be challenging to embed citizen juries and assemblies in wider democratic processes.

scholarly journals An engineering model of the COVID-19 trajectory to predict the success of isolation initiatives

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven King ◽  
Alberto Striolo
Keyword(s):  
Social Studies ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Engineering Model ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Successful Isolation ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Much media and societal attention is today focused on how to best control the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19). Every day brings us new data, and policy makers are implementing different strategies in different countries to manage the impact of COVID-19. To respond to the first ‘wave’ of infection, several countries, including the UK, opted for isolation/lockdown initiatives, with different degrees of rigour. Data showed that these initiatives have yielded the expected results in terms of containing the rapid trajectory of the virus. When this article was first prepared (April 2020), the affected societies were wondering when the isolation/lockdown initiatives should be lifted. While detailed epidemiological, economic as well as social studies would be required to answer this question completely, here we employ a simple engineering model. Albeit simple, the model is capable of reproducing the main features of the data reported in the literature concerning the COVID-19 trajectory in different countries, including the increase in cases in countries following the initially successful isolation/lockdown initiatives. Keeping in mind the simplicity of the model, we attempt to draw some conclusions, which seem to suggest that a decrease in the number of infected individuals after the initiation of isolation/lockdown initiatives does not necessarily guarantee that the virus trajectory is under control. Within the limit of this model, it would seem that rigid isolation/lockdown initiatives for the medium term would lead to achieving the desired control over the spread of the virus. This observation seems consistent with the 2020 summer months, during which the COVID-19 trajectory seemed to be almost under control across most European countries. Consistent with the results from our simple model, winter 2020 data show that the virus trajectory was again on the rise. Because the optimal solution will achieve control over the spread of the virus while minimising negative societal impacts due to isolation/lockdown, which include but are not limited to economic and mental health aspects, the engineering model presented here is not sufficient to provide the desired answer. However, the model seems to suggest that to keep the COVID-19 trajectory under control, a series of short-to-medium term isolation measures should be put in place until one or more of the following scenarios is achieved: a cure has been developed and has become accessible to the population at large; a vaccine has been developed, tested and distributed to large portions of the population; a sufficiently large portion of the population has developed resistance to the COVID-19 virus; or the virus itself has become less aggressive. It is somewhat remarkable that an engineering model, despite all its approximations, provides suggestions consistent with advanced epidemiological models developed by several experts in the field. The model proposed here is however not expected to be able to capture the emergence of variants of the virus, which seem to be responsible for significant outbreaks, notably in India, in the spring of 2021, it cannot describe the effectiveness of vaccine strategies, as it does not differentiate among different age groups within the population, nor does it allow us to consider the duration of the immunity achieved after infection or vaccination.

scholarly journals Time-use and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic: a panel analysis of 55,204 adults followed across 11 weeks of lockdown in the UK

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feifei Bu ◽  
Andrew Steptoe ◽  
Hei Wan Mak ◽  
Daisy Fancourt
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Time Use ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Social Study ◽  
Panel Analysis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health And Wellbeing ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

There is currently major concern about the impact of the global COVID 19 outbreak on mental health. But it remains unclear how individual behaviors could exacerbate or protect against adverse changes in mental health. This study aimed to examine the associations between specific activities (or time use) and mental health and wellbeing amongst people during the COVID 19 pandemic. Data were from the UCL COVID 19 Social Study; a panel study collecting data weekly during the COVID 19 pandemic. The analytical sample consisted of 55,204 adults living in the UK who were followed up for the strict 11 week lockdown period from 21st March to 31st May 2020. Data were analyzed using fixed effects and Arellano Bond models. We found that changes in time spent on a range of activities were associated with changes in mental health and wellbeing. After controlling for bidirectionality, behaviors involving outdoor activities including gardening and exercising predicted subsequent improvements in mental health and wellbeing, while increased time spent on following news about COVID 19 predicted declines in mental health and wellbeing. These results are relevant to the formulation of guidance for people obliged to spend extended periods in isolation during health emergencies, and may help the public to maintain wellbeing during future pandemics.

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