scholarly journals An engineering model of the COVID-19 trajectory to predict the success of isolation initiatives

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven King ◽  
Alberto Striolo
Keyword(s):  
Social Studies ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Engineering Model ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Successful Isolation ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Much media and societal attention is today focused on how to best control the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19). Every day brings us new data, and policy makers are implementing different strategies in different countries to manage the impact of COVID-19. To respond to the first ‘wave’ of infection, several countries, including the UK, opted for isolation/lockdown initiatives, with different degrees of rigour. Data showed that these initiatives have yielded the expected results in terms of containing the rapid trajectory of the virus. When this article was first prepared (April 2020), the affected societies were wondering when the isolation/lockdown initiatives should be lifted. While detailed epidemiological, economic as well as social studies would be required to answer this question completely, here we employ a simple engineering model. Albeit simple, the model is capable of reproducing the main features of the data reported in the literature concerning the COVID-19 trajectory in different countries, including the increase in cases in countries following the initially successful isolation/lockdown initiatives. Keeping in mind the simplicity of the model, we attempt to draw some conclusions, which seem to suggest that a decrease in the number of infected individuals after the initiation of isolation/lockdown initiatives does not necessarily guarantee that the virus trajectory is under control. Within the limit of this model, it would seem that rigid isolation/lockdown initiatives for the medium term would lead to achieving the desired control over the spread of the virus. This observation seems consistent with the 2020 summer months, during which the COVID-19 trajectory seemed to be almost under control across most European countries. Consistent with the results from our simple model, winter 2020 data show that the virus trajectory was again on the rise. Because the optimal solution will achieve control over the spread of the virus while minimising negative societal impacts due to isolation/lockdown, which include but are not limited to economic and mental health aspects, the engineering model presented here is not sufficient to provide the desired answer. However, the model seems to suggest that to keep the COVID-19 trajectory under control, a series of short-to-medium term isolation measures should be put in place until one or more of the following scenarios is achieved: a cure has been developed and has become accessible to the population at large; a vaccine has been developed, tested and distributed to large portions of the population; a sufficiently large portion of the population has developed resistance to the COVID-19 virus; or the virus itself has become less aggressive. It is somewhat remarkable that an engineering model, despite all its approximations, provides suggestions consistent with advanced epidemiological models developed by several experts in the field. The model proposed here is however not expected to be able to capture the emergence of variants of the virus, which seem to be responsible for significant outbreaks, notably in India, in the spring of 2021, it cannot describe the effectiveness of vaccine strategies, as it does not differentiate among different age groups within the population, nor does it allow us to consider the duration of the immunity achieved after infection or vaccination.

scholarly journals An Engineering Model of the COVID-19 Trajectory to Predict Success of Isolation Initiatives

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven King ◽  
Alberto Striolo
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Social Studies ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Engineering Model ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Successful Isolation ◽  
Societal Impacts ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Much media and societal attention is today focused on how to best control the spread of Covid-19. Every day brings us new data, and policymakers are implementing different strategies in different countries to manage the impact of Covid-19. To respond to the first ‘wave’ of infection, several countries, including the UK, opted for isolation/lockdown initiatives, with different degrees of rigour. Data showed that these initiatives have yield the expected results in terms of containing the rapid trajectory of the virus. When this manuscript was first prepared (April 2020), the affected societies were wondering when the isolation/lockdown initiatives should be lifted. While detailed epidemiologic, economic as well as social studies would be required to answer this question completely, we employ here a simple engineering model. Albeit simple, the model is capable of reproducing the main features of the data reported in the literature concerning the Covid-19 trajectory in different countries, including the increase in cases in countries following the initially successful isolation/lockdown initiatives. Keeping in mind the simplicity of the model, we attempt to draw some conclusions, which seem to suggest that a decrease in the number of infected individuals after the initiation of isolation/lockdown initiatives does not necessarily guarantee that the virus trajectory is under control. Within the limit of this model, it would appear that rigid isolation/lockdown initiatives for the medium term would lead to achieving the desired control over the spread of the virus. This observation seems consistent with the 2020 summer months, during which the Covid-19 trajectory seemed to be almost under control across most European countries. Consistent with the results from our simple model, winter 2020 data show that the virus trajectory was again on the rise. Because the optimal solution will achieve control over the spread of the virus while minimising negative societal impacts due to isolation/lockdown, which include but are not limited to economic and mental health aspects, the engineering model presented here is not sufficient to provide the desired answer. However, the model seems to suggest that to keep the Covid-19 trajectory under control, a series of short-to-medium term isolation measures should be put in place until one or more of the following scenarios is achieved: a cure has been developed and has become accessible to the population at large; a vaccine has been developed, tested, and distributed to large portions of the population; a sufficiently large portion of the population has developed resistance to the Covid-19 virus; or the virus itself has become less aggressive. It is somewhat remarkable that an engineering model, despite all its approximations, provides suggestions consistent with advanced epidemiologic models developed by several experts in the field. The model proposed here is however not expected to be able to capture the emergence of variants of the virus, which seem to be responsible for significant outbreaks, notably in India, in the spring 2021, it cannot describe the effectiveness of vaccine strategies, as it does not differentiate among different age groups within the population, nor it allows us to consider the duration of the immunity achieved after infection or vaccination.

scholarly journals An Engineering Model of the COVID-19 Trajectory to Predict Success of Isolation Initiatives

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven King ◽  
Alberto Striolo
Keyword(s):  
Social Studies ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Engineering Model ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
The Past ◽  
Successful Isolation ◽  
Societal Impacts ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Past Summer

Much media and societal attention is today focused on how to best control the spread of Covid-19. Every day brings us new data, and policymakers are implementing different strategies in different countries to manage the impact of Covid-19. To respond to the first wave of infection, several countries, including the UK, opted for isolation/lockdown initiatives, with different degrees of rigour. Data showed that these initiatives have yield the expected results in terms of containing the rapid trajectory of the virus. When this manuscript was first prepared, the affected societies were wondering when the isolation/lockdown initiatives should be lifted. While detailed epidemiologic, economic as well as social studies would be required to answer this question completely, we employ here a simple engineering model. Albeit simple, the model is capable of reproducing the main features of the data reported in the literature concerning the Covid-19 trajectory in different countries, including the increase in cases in countries following the initially successful isolation/lockdown initiatives. Keeping in mind the simplicity of the model, we attempt to draw some conclusions, which seem to suggest that a decrease in the number of infected individuals after the initiation of isolation/lockdown initiatives does not necessarily guarantee that the virus trajectory is under control. Within the limit of this model, it would appear that rigid isolation/lockdown initiatives for the medium term would lead to achieving the desired control over the spread of the virus. This observation seems consistent with the past summer months, during which the Covid-19 trajectory seemed to be almost under control across most European countries. However, recent data show that the virus trajectory is again on the rise. The latter is also consistent with the simple model proposed here. Because the optimal solution will achieve control over the spread of the virus while minimising negative societal impacts due to isolation/lockdown, which include but are not limited to economic and mental health aspects, the engineering model presented here is not sufficient to provide the desired answer. However, the model seems to suggest that to keep the Covid-19 trajectory under control, a series of short-to-medium term isolation measures should be put in place until one or more of the following scenarios is achieved: a cure has been developed and has become accessible to the population at large; a vaccine has been developed, tested, and distributed to large portions of the population; a sufficiently large portion of the population has developed resistance to the Covid-19 virus; or the virus itself has become less aggressive. It is somewhat remarkable that an engineering model, despite all its approximations, provides suggestions consistent with advanced epidemiologic models developed by several experts in the field.

scholarly journals European Youth Work Policy and Young People’s Experience of Open Access Youth Work

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
JON ORD ◽  
MARC CARLETTI ◽  
DANIELE MORCIANO ◽  
LASSE SIURALA ◽  
CHRISTOPHE DANSAC ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Open Access ◽  
Young People ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Youth Work ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
European Youth

Abstract This article examines young people’s experiences of open access youth work in settings in the UK, Finland, Estonia, Italy and France. It analyses 844 individual narratives from young people, which communicate the impact of youthwork on their lives. These accounts are then analysed in the light of the European youth work policy goals. It concludes that it is encouraging that what young people identify as the positive impact of youth work are broadly consistent with many of these goals. There are however some disparities which require attention. These include the importance young people place on the social context of youth work, such as friendship, which is largely absent in EU youth work policy; as well as the importance placed on experiential learning. The paper also highlights a tension between ‘top down’ policy formulation and the ‘youth centric’ practices of youth work. It concludes with a reminder to policy makers that for youth work to remain successful the spaces and places for young people must remain meaningful to them ‘on their terms’.

Understanding Affordability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey Meen ◽  
Christine Whitehead
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Home Ownership ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Household Formation ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Developed World ◽  
The Impact

Affordability is, perhaps, the greatest housing problem facing households today, both in the UK and internationally. Even though most households are now well housed, hardship is disproportionately concentrated among low-income and younger households. Our failure to deal with their problems is what makes housing so frustrating. But, to improve outcomes, we have to understand the complex economic and political forces which underlie their continued prevalence. There are no costless solutions, but there are new policy directions that can be explored in addition to those that have dominated in recent years. The first, analytic, part of the book considers the factors that determine house prices and rents, household formation and tenure, housing construction and the roles played by housing finance and taxation. The second part turns to examine the impact of past policy and the possibilities for improvement - discussing supply and the impact of planning regulation, supply subsidies, subsidies to low-income tenants and attempts to increase home ownership. Rather than advocating a particular set of policies, the aim is to consider the balance of policies; the constraints under which housing policy operates; what can realistically be achieved; the structural changes that would need to occur; and the significant sacrifices that would have to be made by some groups if there are to be improvements for others. Our emphasis is on the UK but throughout the book we also draw on international experience and our conclusions have relevance to analysts and policy makers across the developed world.

scholarly journals Vaccinating Adolescents and Children Significantly Reduces COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality across All Ages: A Popula-Tion-Based Modeling Study Using the UK as an Example

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1180
Author(s):  
Tinevimbo Shiri ◽  
Marc Evans ◽  
Carla A. Talarico ◽  
Angharad R. Morgan ◽  
Maaz Mussad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Debate persists around the risk–benefit balance of vaccinating adolescents and children against COVID-19. Central to this debate is quantifying the contribution of adolescents and children to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and the potential impact of vaccinating these age groups. In this study, we present a novel SEIR mathematical disease transmission model that quantifies the impact of different vaccination strategies on population-level SARS-CoV-2 infections and clinical outcomes. The model employs both age- and time-dependent social mixing patterns to capture the impact of changes in restrictions. The model was used to assess the impact of vaccinating adolescents and children on the natural history of the COVID-19 pandemic across all age groups, using the UK as an example. The base case model demonstrates significant increases in COVID-19 disease burden in the UK following a relaxation of restrictions, if vaccines are limited to those ≥18 years and vulnerable adolescents (≥12 years). Including adolescents and children in the vaccination program could reduce overall COVID-related mortality by 57%, and reduce cases of long COVID by 75%. This study demonstrates that vaccinating adolescents and children has the potential to play a vital role in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections, and subsequent COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, across all ages. Our results have major global public health implications and provide valuable information to inform a potential pandemic exit strategy.

Online job quality quizzes: are they of value?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Job Quality ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
Random Probability ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Uk

Purpose The purpose of this study is to compare two methods of data collection on job quality – an online quiz and a random probability survey. Design/methodology/approach Data are from a nationally representative sample of workers in Britain aged 20–65 years. Participants in the survey are randomly selected whereas those completing the quiz are recruited using uncontrolled convenience sampling promoted through trade union websites, newsletters and advertising on social media platforms. The survey and quiz contain the same questions and data from both methods are collected within 14 months of each other. Findings The results show that the sample recruited for participation in the online quiz is skewed towards those working in the public sector, people in higher education and towards younger age groups and women whereas the random probability survey is more representative of the adult working population in the UK. Significant differences in the results obtained by the two collection methods are found which suggests that social desirability bias is having an effect on participant responses. Practical implications Therefore policy makers should consider the advantages and disadvantages when selecting methods to collect data for tracking changes in job quality. Originality/value This paper has an original approach by examining the procedures in different methods of gathering data on job quality and the effects of this on the data collected.

scholarly journals Protocol for a Mixed-Method Investigation of the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Gambling Practices, Experiences and Marketing in the UK: The “Betting and Gaming COVID-19 Impact Study”

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (22) ◽  
pp. 8449
Author(s):  
Kate Hunt ◽  
Nathan Critchlow ◽  
Ashley Brown ◽  
Christopher Bunn ◽  
Fiona Dobbie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Mixed Method ◽  
Qualitative Interviews ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Treatment Providers ◽  
Sports Events ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented restrictions on people’s movements and interactions, as well as the cancellation of major sports events and social activities, directly altering the gambling landscape. There is urgent need to provide regulators, policy makers and treatment providers with evidence on the patterns and context of gambling during COVID-19 and its aftermath. This protocol describes a study addressing the following three questions: (1) How has COVID-19 changed gambling practices and the risk factors for, and experience of, gambling harms? (2) What is the effect of COVID-19 on gambling marketing? (3) How has COVID-19 changed high risk groups’ gambling experiences and practices? This mixed-method study focuses on two groups, namely young adults and sports bettors. In workpackage-1, we will extend an existing longitudinal survey of gambling in young adults (aged 16–24 years) (first wave conducted June–August 2019), adding COVID-19-related questions to the second wave (July–August 2020) and extending to a third wave in 2021; and undertake a survey of sports bettors in the UK (baseline n = 4000, ~July–August 2020), with follow-ups in ~October–November 2020 and ~February-March 2021. In workpackage-2, we will examine changes in expenditure on paid-for gambling advertising from January 2019 to July 2021 and undertake a mixed-method content analysis of a random sample of paid-for gambling advertising (n ~ 200) and social media marketing (n ~ 100) during the initial COVID-19 “lockdown”. Workpackage-3 will involve qualitative interviews with a purposive sample of (a) young adults (aged 18–24 years) and (b) sports bettors.

scholarly journals The patient’s experience of primary ciliary dyskinesia: a systematic review

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 2265-2285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Behan ◽  
Bruna Rubbo ◽  
Jane S. Lucas ◽  
Audrey Dunn Galvin
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Health Related Quality ◽  
Related Quality ◽  
Health Related ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ciliary Dyskinesia

Abstract Background Primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD) is a rare genetic disorder characterised by progressive sinopulmonary disease, with symptoms starting soon after birth. The aim of this study is to critically review, analyse, and synthesise the literature in order to understand the experiences of patients with primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD) and the impact on health-related quality of life. Method MEDLINE, EBSCO, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), PsycINFO and EMBASE were searched according to the inclusion criteria. A qualitative analysis of 14 studies was conducted. Results Fourteen studies were included in the review, five with qualitative methodologies. Studies originated from the UK, USA, Italy, Denmark and Belgium, one study included a survey distributed internationally. Significant relationships were found between age and worsening of respiratory symptoms, physical, and mental domains of health-related quality of life, with a greater decline compared with reference populations. Variations between the UK and Italy were found for health-related quality of life and its correlation with time since diagnosis. PCD was found to have a physical impact in all age groups: patients found it difficult to keep up with others, and found energy levels were easily depleted compared to family or peers. In terms of social impact, symptoms lead to embarrassment and a sense of isolation, with patients concealing symptoms and/or their diagnosis. In turn, isolation was also linked with the lack of public and medical knowledge. In relation to emotional impact, anxiety was reported in a number of qualitative studies; patients were anxious about getting sick or when thinking about their future health. The burden of treatment and factors influencing adherence were also discussed in depth. Conclusion Health-related quality of life decreases with age in patients with PCD. For all age groups, PCD was found to greatly impact physical, emotional, social functioning, and treatment burden. More research is needed on the psychosocial impact of the illness, disease burden and its effect on quality of life.

Impact Of Age On Toxicity Associated With Chemotherapy For Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia (ALL): Results From The UK Prospective Study UKALL2003

Blood ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 122 (21) ◽  
pp. 840-840
Author(s):  
Rachael E. Hough ◽  
Clare Rowntree ◽  
Rachel Wade ◽  
Nicholas Goulden ◽  
Chris Mitchell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Conflicts Of Interest ◽  
Residual Disease ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Serious Adverse Events ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Teenagers And Young Adults ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Cure Rates ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Despite the substantial improvements made in the outcomes of paediatric ALL, with ‘cure' rates now in excess of 90%, survival in teenage and young adult (TYA) patients has remained inferior. The reasons for this are likely multifactorial, including tumour biology, toxicity, compliance, access to clinical trials and protocol (adult or paediatric) used. We report the toxicity profiles observed in children, teenagers and young adults treated on the UK intensive, minimal residual disease (MRD) directed ALL protocol, UKALL2003. Of a total of 3126 patients treated, 1520 patients were under 5 years old, 767 were aged 5-9 years, 610 aged 10-15 years and 229 aged 16-24 years, with a median overall follow-up of 4 year and 10 months. The risk of serious adverse events (SAEs) was higher in patients older than 10 years (56% in 10-15 year olds, 53% in 16-24 year olds) compared to those aged 9 or younger (30% in under 5 years and 31% in 5-9 years)(p<0.0001), with no difference in the those aged 16-24 compared to younger teenagers (p=0.5). The incidence (per number of patients in each group) and distribution of toxicities according to age group is summarised in the table.Table 1Age in years<55-910-1516-24AllTotal number of patients1520767610229 NB: 56 pts≥20 years3126Infection n (%)328 (21.6%)130 (17.0%)145 (23.8%)72 (31.4%)675 (21.6%)Asaparaginase n (%)57 (3.8%)57 (7.4%)64 (10.5%)31 (13.5%)209 (6.7%)Methotrexate n (%)100 (6.6%)74 (9.6%)123 (20.2%)33 (14.4%)330 (10.6%)Steroid n (%)54 (3.6%)37 (4.8%)141 (23.1%)52 (22.7%)284 (9.0%)Vincristine n (%)34 (2.2%)11 (1.4%)22 (3.6%)7 (3.0%)74 (2.4%)Other SAEs94 (6.2%)42 (5.5%)90 (14.8%)25 (10.9%)251 (8.0%) The incidence of certain toxicities including viral infection (5.3%), asparaginase hypersensitivity (1.9%) and vincristine neurotoxicity (2.1%) appeared equivalent across all age groups. Avacular necrosis was seen predominantly in adolescents (83% of 147 events in 10-19 year olds) and was rare in those younger than 10 years (n=18) or older than 20 years (n=7). Asparaginase thrombotic events increased in frequency with increasing age (1.5% in under 5 years, 3.3% in 5-9 years, 4.4% in 10-15 years and 8.3% in 16-24 year olds)(p<0.0001). All other toxicities were more frequently observed in over 10 year olds compared to patients aged 9 or younger, with no difference between 16-24 year olds and 10-15 year olds. The impact of age on SAEs associated with intensive ALL chemotherapy varies according to specific toxicities. In general, toxicity is higher in those over 10 years compared to younger patients, with no excess toxicity in those aged 16-24 compared to 10-15 years. However, specific toxicities may increase with increasing age (thrombosis), be restricted to adolescence (AVN) or be unrelated to age (vincristine neurotoxicity, asparaginase hypersensitivity). Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

A Study on Methodologies for Research Impact Assessment: Responses of the UK Research Councils to the Warry Report

2010 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 393-397 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Luiz de Campos
Keyword(s):  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Research Impact ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Research Impact Assessment ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Research Councils ◽  
The Impact

The experience of the UK Research Councils in assessing the impacts of their research funding is discussed, including a report on the findings of research which reviewed the impact studies implemented by the Research Councils. The response of the Councils to the challenge of demonstrating the impacts of their funding and the main methodologies used are presented and the implications of both for the Research Councils and policy makers elsewhere are outlined.

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