An engineering model of the COVID-19 trajectory to predict the success of isolation initiatives

Much media and societal attention is today focused on how to best control the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19). Every day brings us new data, and policy makers are implementing different strategies in different countries to manage the impact of COVID-19. To respond to the first ‘wave’ of infection, several countries, including the UK, opted for isolation/lockdown initiatives, with different degrees of rigour. Data showed that these initiatives have yielded the expected results in terms of containing the rapid trajectory of the virus. When this article was first prepared (April 2020), the affected societies were wondering when the isolation/lockdown initiatives should be lifted. While detailed epidemiological, economic as well as social studies would be required to answer this question completely, here we employ a simple engineering model. Albeit simple, the model is capable of reproducing the main features of the data reported in the literature concerning the COVID-19 trajectory in different countries, including the increase in cases in countries following the initially successful isolation/lockdown initiatives. Keeping in mind the simplicity of the model, we attempt to draw some conclusions, which seem to suggest that a decrease in the number of infected individuals after the initiation of isolation/lockdown initiatives does not necessarily guarantee that the virus trajectory is under control. Within the limit of this model, it would seem that rigid isolation/lockdown initiatives for the medium term would lead to achieving the desired control over the spread of the virus. This observation seems consistent with the 2020 summer months, during which the COVID-19 trajectory seemed to be almost under control across most European countries. Consistent with the results from our simple model, winter 2020 data show that the virus trajectory was again on the rise. Because the optimal solution will achieve control over the spread of the virus while minimising negative societal impacts due to isolation/lockdown, which include but are not limited to economic and mental health aspects, the engineering model presented here is not sufficient to provide the desired answer. However, the model seems to suggest that to keep the COVID-19 trajectory under control, a series of short-to-medium term isolation measures should be put in place until one or more of the following scenarios is achieved: a cure has been developed and has become accessible to the population at large; a vaccine has been developed, tested and distributed to large portions of the population; a sufficiently large portion of the population has developed resistance to the COVID-19 virus; or the virus itself has become less aggressive. It is somewhat remarkable that an engineering model, despite all its approximations, provides suggestions consistent with advanced epidemiological models developed by several experts in the field. The model proposed here is however not expected to be able to capture the emergence of variants of the virus, which seem to be responsible for significant outbreaks, notably in India, in the spring of 2021, it cannot describe the effectiveness of vaccine strategies, as it does not differentiate among different age groups within the population, nor does it allow us to consider the duration of the immunity achieved after infection or vaccination.

Associations between the household environment and stunted child growth in rural India: a cross-sectional analysis

Stunting is a major unresolved and growing health issue for India. There is a need for a broader interdisciplinary cross-sectoral approach in which disciplines such as the environment and health have to work together to co-develop integrated socio-culturally tailored interventions. However, there remains scant evidence for the development and application of such integrated, multifactorial child health interventions across India’s most rural communities. In this paper we explore and demonstrate the linkages between environmental factors and stunting thereby highlighting the scope for interdisciplinary research. We examine the associations between household environmental characteristics and stunting in children under 5 years of age across rural Rajasthan, India. We used Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)-3 India (2005–2006) data from 1194 children living across 109,041 interviewed households. Multiple logistic regression analyses independently examined the association between (i) the primary source of drinking water, (ii) primary type of sanitation facilities, (iii) primary cooking fuel type, and (iv) agricultural land ownership and stunting adjusting for child age. The results suggest, after adjusting for child age, household access to (i) improved drinking water source was associated with 23% decreased odds [odds ratio (OR) = 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.5–1.00], (ii) improved sanitation facility was associated with 41% decreased odds (OR = 0.51, 95% CI 0.3–0.82), and (iii) agricultural land ownership was associated with 30% decreased odds of childhood stunting (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.51–0.94]. The cooking fuel source was not associated with stunting. Our findings indicate that a shift is needed from nutrition-specific to contextually appropriate interdisciplinary solutions, which incorporate environmental improvements. This will not only improve living conditions in deprived communities but also help to tackle the challenge of childhood malnutrition across India’s most vulnerable communities.

A new attribute-linked residential property price dataset for England and Wales, 2011–2019

Current research on residential house price variation in the UK is limited by the lack of an open and comprehensive house price database that contains both transaction price alongside dwelling attributes such as size. This research outlines one approach which addresses this deficiency in England and Wales through combining transaction information from the official open Land Registry Price Paid Data (LR-PPD) and property size information from the official open Domestic Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs). A four-stage data linkage is created to generate a new linked dataset, representing 79% of the full market sales in the LR-PPD. This new linked dataset offers greater flexibility for the exploration of house price (£/m2) variation in England and Wales at different scales over postcode units between 2011 and 2019. Open access linkage codes will allow for future updates beyond 2019.

The geographic, environmental and phylogenetic evolution of the Alveolinoidea from the Cretaceous to the present day

The superfamily Alveolinoidea is a member of the Order Miliolida, and comprises three main families, the Alveolinidae, the Fabulariidae and the Rhapydioninidae. They are examples of Larger benthic foraminifera (LBF), which are single-celled organisms with specific characteristic endoskeletons. Alveolinoids are found globally from the Cretaceous to the present day, and are important biostratigraphic index fossils in shallow-marine carbonates. They are often associated with hydrocarbon reservoirs, and exhibit provincialism with characteristic genera often confined to one of the American, Tethyan or Indo-Pacific provinces. Previously, the systematic study of the global interrelationship between the various alveolinoid lineages has not been possible because of the absence of biostratigraphic correlation between the geographically scattered assemblages, and the scarcity of described material from the Indo-Pacific province. Here we use the literature and new material from the Americas, the French Alps, Iran, Tibet, India and South East Asia, coupled with the use of the planktonic foraminiferal zonal (PZ) correlation scheme to propose a comprehensive, global, systematic analysis of the biostratigraphic, phylogenetic and paleogeographic evolution of the alveolinoids. The alveolinoids originated in the Cretaceous in the Tethyan province. During a global sea-level low stand, a westward migration of some alveolinoids species to the Americas occurred, a behaviour previously reported in contemporaneous orbitolinid LBF. After the Cretaceous/Palaeogene (K–P) event, which saw the extinction of all Cretaceous alveolinoids, rare new forms of alveolinoids evolved again, first in the Americas and later independently in Tethys. As was found in previous studies of rotalid LBF, sea-level low stands in the Paleocene also allowed some alveolinoid forms to migrate, but this time in an eastward direction from the Americas to Tethys, and from Tethys on to the Indo-Pacific province. Alveolinoids still exist today (BorelisandAlveolinella), the former of which is cosmopolitan, while the latter is restricted to the Indo-Pacific province. Throughout their phylogenetic history, alveolinoids characteristically exhibit convergent evolution, with the repeated re-occurrence of certain morphological features. Understanding this propensity to homoplasy is essential in understanding and constructing the phylogenetic relationships within the alveolinoid superfamily.

Assessing SDG indicator 6.4.2 ‘level of water stress’ at major basins level

This paper describes a method to disaggregate indicator 6.4.2 (level of water stress) by major river basins. The analysis was performed using the GlobWat soil water balance model and global geospatial data consistent with national statistics published in AQUASTAT, the FAO’s global information system on water and agriculture. When a river basin spans across more than one country, the water stress calculated by country can be very different from that calculated by the river basin as the counting of the renewable freshwater resources from one country to another is highly dependent on the official agreement and treaties that regulate the flow of those resources between countries. This problem is solved hydrologically once the accounting of the water resources is done on the major river basin as a whole. The disaggregation by the river basin allows the identification of hotspots where actions should be prioritised and reveals that the area affected by a high or critical water stress spans across all continents with the exception of Oceania. It also offers the possibility of an analysis of freshwater withdrawals by sector, which may become crucial for the definition of water management policies in the context of the economic development of a country.

Improved bathymetry leads to >4000 new seamount predictions in the global ocean – but beware of phantom seamounts!

Seamounts are important marine habitats that are hotspots of species diversity. Relatively shallow peaks, increased productivity and offshore locations make seamounts vulnerable to human impact and difficult to protect. Present estimates of seamount numbers vary from anywhere between 10,000 to more than 60,000. Seamount locations can be estimated by extracting large, cone-like features from bathymetry grids (based on criteria of size and shape). These predicted seamounts are a useful reference for marine researchers and can help direct exploratory surveys. However, these predictions are dependent on the quality of the surveys underpinning the bathymetry. Historically, quality has been patchy, but is improving as mapping efforts step up towards the target of complete seabed coverage by 2030. This study presents an update of seamount predictions based on SRTM30 PLUS global bathymetry version 11 and examines a potential source of error in these predictions. This update was prompted by a seamount survey in the British Indian Ocean Territory in 2016, where locations of two putative seamounts were visited. These ‘seamounts’ were targeted based on previous predictions, but these features were not detected during echosounder surveys. An examination of UK hydrographic office navigational (Admiralty) charts for the area showed that the summits of these putative features had soundings reporting ‘no bottom detected at this depth’ where ‘this depth’ was similar to the seabed reported from the bathymetry grids: we suspect that these features likely resulted from an initial misreading of the charts. We show that 15 ‘phantom seamount’ features, derived from a misinterpretation of no bottom sounding data, persist in current global bathymetry grids and updated seamount predictions. Overall, we predict 37,889 seamounts, an increase of 4437 from the previous predictions derived from an older global bathymetry grid (SRTM30 PLUS v6). This increase is due to greater detail in newer bathymetry grids as acoustic mapping of the seabed expands. The new seamount predictions are available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.921688.

Synergies and trade-offs between sanitation and the sustainable development goals

To better leverage opportunities arising out of sustainable and inclusive management of sanitation services there is a need for robust and comprehensive evidence of the wide-ranging benefits that sanitation can deliver. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide a comprehensive framework for sustainable development broken down into 169 interconnected Targets which are articulated under 17 Goals. Based on a methodology developed at University College London (UCL), this study identifies linkages between sanitation and the 169 Targets corroborated by published evidence. We show that there are synergies between sanitation and all 17 Goals and 130 (77%) of the Targets, and trade-offs for 28 (17%) of the Targets. We identified 83 Targets (49%) that call for action in the sanitation sector. The results demonstrate the far-reaching benefits that can be unlocked from investment in sanitation, which extend beyond health and spread across sectors. The evidence base for the 17 Goals establishes links that can inform cross-sectoral action, collaborations and investment across governance levels for integrated sanitation solutions. The research provides different stakeholders with a framework that can be applied to context-specific cases and projects. We propose a range of recommendations to policy makers, practitioners and researchers who seek to take this study further to help achieve the SDGs.

Ticking time bomb: implications of the COVID-19 lockdown on e-waste management in developing countries

The COVID-19 pandemic has altered the course of events globally since the outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in late 2019 giving further credence to the long-standing belief that the world is indeed a global village. There have been different responses by countries to the raging pandemic including the imposition of lockdowns, quarantine and isolation. The imposition of lockdowns, whether full or partial, has not been without major consequences, which has led to information, communication and technological (ICT)-based measures to minimise the effect of the lockdown and as an alternative to physical interactions. The use of ICT devices to bridge the gaps created by the lockdown on schools, businesses and other sectors has led to the increased use of electronic devices. The challenge of electronic waste (e-waste) management in developing countries has been around for a while and the increased use of electronic devices is likely to compound the challenge during and post COVID-19. Whilst the development of ICT-based options as viable alternatives to face-to-face interactions may not be a negative development, this article argues that the existing frameworks are inadequate to manage the resultant increase in e-waste in most developing countries and that there is need now more than ever before for developing countries to exercise caution in embracing these ICT-based options without putting in place measures to ensure that there is increased capacity to manage and dispose of the e-waste created.

A simple and quick sensitivity analysis method for methane isotopologues detection with GOSAT-TANSO-FTS

Measurements of methane isotopologues can differentiate between different source types, be they biogenic (e.g. marsh lands) or abiogenic (e.g. industry). Global measurements of these isotopologues would greatly benefit the current disconnect between ‘top-down’ (knowledge from chemistry transport models and satellite measurements) and ‘bottom-up’ (in situ measurement inventories) methane measurements. However, current measurements of these isotopologues are limited to a small number of in situ studies and airborne studies. In this paper we investigate the potential for detecting the second most common isotopologue of methane (13CH4) from space using the Japanese Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite applying a quick and simple residual radiance analysis technique. The method allows for a rapid analysis of spectral regions, and can be used to teach university students or advanced school students about radiative transfer analysis. Using this method we find limited sensitivity to 13CH4, with detections limited to total column methane enhancements of >6%, assuming a desert surface albedo of >0.3.