Conceptual modeling of the impacts of climate change on karst geomorphology in the UK and Ireland

2003 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather A. Viles
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Conceptual Modeling ◽  
Karst Geomorphology ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals The evolution of climate change guidance for fluvial flood risk management in England

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas S Reynard ◽  
Alison L Kay ◽  
Molly Anderson ◽  
Bill Donovan ◽  
Caroline Duckworth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Floods are one of the biggest natural hazards to society, and there is increasing concern about the potential impacts of climate change on flood occurrence and magnitude. Furthermore, flood risk is likely to increase in the future not just through increased flood occurrence, but also through socio-economic changes, such as increasing population. The extent to which adaptation measures can offset this increased risk will depend on the level of future climate change, but there exists an urgent need for information on the potential impacts of climate change on floods, so that these can be accounted for by flood management authorities and local planners aiming to reduce flood risk. Agencies across the UK have been pro-active in providing such guidance for many years and in refining it as the science of climate change and hydrological impacts has developed. The history of this guidance for fluvial flood risk in England is presented and discussed here, including the recent adoption of a regional risk-based approach. Such an approach could be developed and applied to flood risk management in other countries, and to other sectors affected by climate change.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on wheat anthesis and fusarium ear blight in the UK

2011 ◽  
Vol 130 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
James W. Madgwick ◽  
Jon S. West ◽  
Rodger P. White ◽  
Mikhail A. Semenov ◽  
James A. Townsend ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ear Blight ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010-2012 event

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilson Chan ◽  
Theodore Shepherd ◽  
Katie Smith ◽  
Geoff Darch ◽  
Nigel Arnell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Singular Event ◽  
Climate Change Model ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts threaten water resources availability and incur significant environmental and socio-economic consequences. Given the impacts of climate change, the UK is expected to remain vulnerable to future multi-year droughts. Existing approaches to quantify hydrological impacts of climate change are often scenario-driven and may miss out plausible outcomes with significant impacts. Event-based storyline approaches aim to quantify “storylines” of how a singular event with significant impacts could hypothetically have unfolded in alternative ways from plausible changes to its causal factors under present and future climate. This study uses the 2010-2012 UK drought, the most recent period of severe hydrological drought, as a basis, to create counterfactual storylines based on changes to 1) precondition severity, 2) temporal drought sequence and 3) climate change. Model simulations are performed using the GR4J hydrological model and drought characteristics for each counterfactual storyline is calculated using the Standardized Streamflow Index at multiple accumulation periods.</p><p>The storylines show that maximum intensity, mean deficit and duration of the 2010-2012 drought were highly conditioned by its meteorological preconditions. Recovery time from progressively drier preconditions reflect both spatial variation in drought characteristics and the influence of physical catchment characteristics, particularly hydrogeology, in the propagation of multi-year droughts. Plausible storylines of an additional dry year with dry winter conditions repeated before the observed drought or replacing the observed dramatic drought termination confirm the vulnerability of UK catchments to a “three dry winter” scenario. Application of the UKCP18 projections at four global warming levels explore the impacts of the drought in a warmer world. Drought conditions of the storylines could have matched and exceeded that experienced in past severe droughts, especially for southern catchments. The construction of storylines based on observed events can complement existing methods to stress test UK catchments against plausible unrealized droughts.</p>

The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

2014 ◽  
Vol 510 ◽  
pp. 424-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nigel W. Arnell ◽  
Matthew B. Charlton ◽  
Jason A. Lowe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
River Flows ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Potential impacts of climate change on water quality and ecology in six UK rivers

2009 ◽  
Vol 40 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 113-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. G. Whitehead ◽  
A. J. Wade ◽  
D. Butterfield
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Soluble Reactive Phosphorus ◽  
Quality Parameter ◽  
Water Quality Parameter ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

A modelling study has been undertaken to assess the likely impacts of climate change on water quality across the UK. A range of climate change scenarios have been used to generate future precipitation, evaporation and temperature time series at a range of catchments across the UK. These time series have then been used to drive the Integrated Catchment (INCA) suite of flow, water quality and ecological models to simulate flow, nitrate, ammonia, total and soluble reactive phosphorus, sediments, macrophytes and epiphytes in the Rivers Tamar, Lugg, Tame, Kennet, Tweed and Lambourn. A wide range of responses have been obtained with impacts varying depending on river character, catchment location, flow regime, type of scenario and the time into the future. Essentially upland reaches of river will respond differently to lowland reaches of river, and the responses will vary depending on the water quality parameter of interest.

scholarly journals Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010–2012 event

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilson C. H. Chan ◽  
Theodore G. Shepherd ◽  
Katie A. Smith ◽  
Geoff Darch ◽  
Nigel W. Arnell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Past ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts cause significant environmental stress. Given the impacts of climate change, the UK is expected to remain vulnerable to future multi-year droughts. Existing approaches to quantify hydrological impacts of climate change are often scenario-driven and may miss out plausible outcomes with significant impacts. Event-based storyline approaches aim to quantify storylines of how observed events could hypothetically have unfolded in alternative ways. This study uses the 2010–2012 drought, the most recent period of severe hydrological drought in the UK, as a basis, and analyses counterfactual storylines based on changes to 1) precondition severity, 2) temporal drought sequence, and 3) climate change. Evidence from multiple storylines shows that maximum intensity, mean deficit and duration of the 2010–2012 drought were highly conditioned by its meteorological preconditions, particularly for northern catchments at shorter time scales. Recovery time from progressively drier preconditions reflect both spatial variation in drought conditions and the role of physical catchment characteristics, particularly hydrogeology in the propagation of multi-year droughts. Two plausible storylines of an additional dry year with dry winter conditions repeated either before the observed drought or replacing the observed dramatic drought termination confirm the vulnerability of UK catchments to a three dry winter scenario. Applying the UKCP18 climate projections, we find that drought conditions worsen with global warming with a mitigation of drought conditions by wetter winters in northern catchments at high warming levels. Comparison of the storylines with a benchmark drought (1975–76) and a protracted multi-year drought (1989–93) shows that for each storyline, drought conditions could have matched and exceeded those experienced during the past droughts at catchments across the UK, particularly for southern catchments. The construction of storylines based on observed events can complement existing methods to stress test UK catchments against plausible unrealized droughts.

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