scholarly journals Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010–2012 event

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilson C. H. Chan ◽  
Theodore G. Shepherd ◽  
Katie A. Smith ◽  
Geoff Darch ◽  
Nigel W. Arnell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Past ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts cause significant environmental stress. Given the impacts of climate change, the UK is expected to remain vulnerable to future multi-year droughts. Existing approaches to quantify hydrological impacts of climate change are often scenario-driven and may miss out plausible outcomes with significant impacts. Event-based storyline approaches aim to quantify storylines of how observed events could hypothetically have unfolded in alternative ways. This study uses the 2010–2012 drought, the most recent period of severe hydrological drought in the UK, as a basis, and analyses counterfactual storylines based on changes to 1) precondition severity, 2) temporal drought sequence, and 3) climate change. Evidence from multiple storylines shows that maximum intensity, mean deficit and duration of the 2010–2012 drought were highly conditioned by its meteorological preconditions, particularly for northern catchments at shorter time scales. Recovery time from progressively drier preconditions reflect both spatial variation in drought conditions and the role of physical catchment characteristics, particularly hydrogeology in the propagation of multi-year droughts. Two plausible storylines of an additional dry year with dry winter conditions repeated either before the observed drought or replacing the observed dramatic drought termination confirm the vulnerability of UK catchments to a three dry winter scenario. Applying the UKCP18 climate projections, we find that drought conditions worsen with global warming with a mitigation of drought conditions by wetter winters in northern catchments at high warming levels. Comparison of the storylines with a benchmark drought (1975–76) and a protracted multi-year drought (1989–93) shows that for each storyline, drought conditions could have matched and exceeded those experienced during the past droughts at catchments across the UK, particularly for southern catchments. The construction of storylines based on observed events can complement existing methods to stress test UK catchments against plausible unrealized droughts.

Storylines of UK drought based on the 2010-2012 event

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilson Chan ◽  
Theodore Shepherd ◽  
Katie Smith ◽  
Geoff Darch ◽  
Nigel Arnell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Singular Event ◽  
Climate Change Model ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Spatially extensive multi-year hydrological droughts threaten water resources availability and incur significant environmental and socio-economic consequences. Given the impacts of climate change, the UK is expected to remain vulnerable to future multi-year droughts. Existing approaches to quantify hydrological impacts of climate change are often scenario-driven and may miss out plausible outcomes with significant impacts. Event-based storyline approaches aim to quantify “storylines” of how a singular event with significant impacts could hypothetically have unfolded in alternative ways from plausible changes to its causal factors under present and future climate. This study uses the 2010-2012 UK drought, the most recent period of severe hydrological drought, as a basis, to create counterfactual storylines based on changes to 1) precondition severity, 2) temporal drought sequence and 3) climate change. Model simulations are performed using the GR4J hydrological model and drought characteristics for each counterfactual storyline is calculated using the Standardized Streamflow Index at multiple accumulation periods.</p><p>The storylines show that maximum intensity, mean deficit and duration of the 2010-2012 drought were highly conditioned by its meteorological preconditions. Recovery time from progressively drier preconditions reflect both spatial variation in drought characteristics and the influence of physical catchment characteristics, particularly hydrogeology, in the propagation of multi-year droughts. Plausible storylines of an additional dry year with dry winter conditions repeated before the observed drought or replacing the observed dramatic drought termination confirm the vulnerability of UK catchments to a “three dry winter” scenario. Application of the UKCP18 projections at four global warming levels explore the impacts of the drought in a warmer world. Drought conditions of the storylines could have matched and exceeded that experienced in past severe droughts, especially for southern catchments. The construction of storylines based on observed events can complement existing methods to stress test UK catchments against plausible unrealized droughts.</p>

The potential impacts of climate change on hydropower generation in Mid Wales

2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 495-505 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Carless ◽  
P. G. Whitehead
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River System ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Stream Flows ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Water Companies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Hydropower is a potential large source of electricity supply in Wales. The Upper River Severn in Mid Wales is a typical stream where a high head hydropower scheme could be developed and the river system at Plynlimon has some of the longest records for weather and flow in Wales. A micro-hydropower potential of 99 kW is demonstrated at Plynlimon and the potential impacts of climate change are simulated to assess the effects on flows and power outputs of such schemes under climate uncertainty. Based on UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) projections, the impacts of climate change are to significantly decrease both the stream flows and energy production during summer months but to increase flows and power production in the winter, with a net tendency to cancel out over the course of a full year. A methodology for assessing impacts of climate change on hydropower is established, which could be applied more widely to other potential hydropower sites such as lowland rivers or high base flow rivers in other parts of the UK. This will be useful for developers, water companies and environmental agencies to assess hydropower potential, economic viability and environmental impacts of micro-hydropower, under future climate change.

scholarly journals Does early onset asthma increase childhood obesity risk? A pooled analysis of 16 European cohorts

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 1800504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zuelma A. Contreras ◽  
Zhanghua Chen ◽  
Theano Roumeliotaki ◽  
Isabella Annesi-Maesano ◽  
Nour Baïz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Allergic Rhinitis ◽  
Childhood Asthma ◽  
Early Onset ◽  
Pooled Analysis ◽  
Obesity Risk ◽  
Obese Children ◽  
The Past ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Uk

The parallel epidemics of childhood asthma and obesity over the past few decades have spurred research into obesity as a risk factor for asthma. However, little is known regarding the role of asthma in obesity incidence. We examined whether early-onset asthma and related phenotypes are associated with the risk of developing obesity in childhood.This study includes 21 130 children born from 1990 to 2008 in Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, The Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the UK. We followed non-obese children at 3–4 years of age for incident obesity up to 8 years of age. Physician-diagnosed asthma, wheezing and allergic rhinitis were assessed up to 3–4 years of age.Children with physician-diagnosed asthma had a higher risk for incident obesity than those without asthma (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.66, 95% CI 1.18–2.33). Children with active asthma (wheeze in the last 12 months and physician-diagnosed asthma) exhibited a higher risk for obesity (aHR 1.98, 95% CI 1.31–3.00) than those without wheeze and asthma. Persistent wheezing was associated with increased risk for incident obesity compared to never wheezers (aHR 1.51, 95% CI 1.08–2.09).Early-onset asthma and wheezing may contribute to an increased risk of developing obesity in later childhood.

scholarly journals British diplomacy of money and trade

2019 ◽  
Vol 71 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-158
Author(s):  
Ognjen Pribicevic
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Decision To Leave ◽  
The Past ◽  
Gulf Countries ◽  
British Foreign Policy ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Uk Foreign Policy ◽  
The Eu

Leaving the EU is one of the major political decisions made in the UK over the past half-century. Brexit brought about a virtual political earthquake not only in EU-UK relations but also in terms of UK future place and role on the international scene. Immediately after the decision of UK citizens to leave the EU at a referendum held on 23 June 2016, the question arose as to whether the UK will lose some of its international influence, whether Scotland will remain part of the Union, whether the UK will retain its privileged relations and special status with the USA, and what its future relations with the EU will be. The purpose of this article is to point to the basic priorities of the contemporary British foreign policy as well as to place and role of the UK on the contemporary international scene particularly in view of its decision to leave the EU. We shall first try to define the status of present-day Britain in international relations. Second, we shall address the traditional dilemma of the UK foreign policy - what should be given priority - relations with the USA, Europe or the Commonwealth? After that, we shall discuss in more detail the phases the UK foreign policy went through following the end of the cold war. In the third phase, we shall analyze the British contemporary foreign and economic policy towards Gulf countries and China. In the fourth part of the article, we shall discuss relations with the USA. It should be pointed out that the article does not seek to analyze all aspects of British foreign policy, even if we wanted to, due to a shortage of time. Of course, the topic of Brexit will be present in all chapters and especially in the last one and conclusion remarks. By its decision to leave the EU, the UK appears to have given priority to its relations with the USA, China, Gulf countries as well as Commonwealth countries instead of the EU which has been economically and politically dominant over the past few decades. This decision taken by UK citizens will no doubt have a great impact not only on their personal lives and standard of living but on the UK role in international relations. Despite its military, political, economic and cultural capacities, it is highly unlikely that the UK will manage to overcome the consequences of an exit from the single market, currently generating 18 trillion dollars on an annual basis as well as the loss of a privileged partner role with the USA within the Union. We are, therefore, more likely to believe that in the foreseeable future, the role of the UK on the international scene will continue to decline and be increasingly focused on its economic and financial interests. Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. III 47010: Drustvene transformacije u procesu evropskih integracija - multidisciplinarni pristup]

Impact and uncertainty of climate projections on Alpine catchments using high-resolution models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Sebastian Moraga ◽  
Nadav Peleg ◽  
Simone Fatichi ◽  
Peter Molnar ◽  
Paolo Burlando
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
Mountainous Catchments ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
Alpine Catchments ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Hydrological processes in mountainous catchments will be subject to climate change on all scales, and their response is expected to vary considerably in space. Typical hydrological studies, which use coarse climate data inputs obtained from General Circulation Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCM), focus mostly on statistics at the outlet of the catchments, overlooking the effects within the catchments. Furthermore, the role of uncertainty, especially originated from natural climate variability, is rarely analyzed. In this work, we quantified the impacts of climate change on hydrological components and determined the sources of uncertainties in the projections for two mostly natural Swiss alpine catchments: Kleine Emme and Thur. Using a two-dimensional weather generator, AWE-GEN-2d, and based on nine different GCM-RCM model chains, we generated high-resolution (2 km, 1 hour) ensembles of gridded climate inputs until the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. The simulated variables were subsequently used as inputs into the fully distributed hydrological model Topkapi-ETH to estimate the changes in hydrological statistics at 100-m and hourly resolutions. Increased temperatures (by 4°C, on average) and changes in precipitation (decrease over high elevations by up to 10%, and increase at the lower elevation by up to 15%) results in increased evapotranspiration rates in the order of 10%, up to a 50% snowmelt, and drier soil conditions. These changes translate into important shifts in streamflow seasonality at the outlet of the catchments, with a significant increase during the winter months (up to 40%) and a reduction during the summer (up to 30%). Analysis at the sub-catchment scale reveals elevation-dependent hydrological responses: mean annual streamflow, as well as high and low flow extremes, are projected to decrease in the uppermost sub-catchments and increase in the lower ones. Furthermore, we computed the uncertainty of the estimations and compared them to the magnitude of the change signal. Although the signal-to-noise-ratio of extreme streamflow for most sub-catchments is low (below 0.5) there is a clear elevation dependency. In every case, internal climate variability (as opposed to climate model uncertainty) explains most of the uncertainty, averaging 85% for maximum and minimum flows, and 60% for mean flows. The results highlight the importance of modelling the distributed impacts of climate change on mountainous catchments, and of taking into account the role of internal climate variability in hydrological projections.</p>

Regional impacts of climate change on agriculture and the role of adaptation.

2013 ◽  
pp. 78-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Berry ◽  
J. Ramirez-Villegas ◽  
H. Bramley ◽  
M. A. Mgonja ◽  
M Samarendu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Impacts ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Situating Continuing Professional Development in Life Long Learning in Qatar

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vishanth Weerakkody ◽  
Mohamad Osmani ◽  
Paul Waller ◽  
Nitham Hindi ◽  
Rajab Al-Esmail
Keyword(s):  
Professional Development ◽  
Continuing Professional Development ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The Past ◽  
Life Long Learning ◽  
The Us ◽  
Local Contexts ◽  
The Uk ◽  
High Level

<p>Continued professional development (CPD) has been at the centre of capacity building in most successful organisations in western countries over the past few decades. Specialised professions in fields such as Accounting, Finance and ICT, to name but a few, are continuously evolving, which is necessitating certain standards to be followed through registration and certification by a designated authority (e.g. ACCA). Whilst most developed countries such as the UK and the US have well established frameworks for CPD for these professions, several developing nations, including Qatar (the chosen context for this article) are only just beginning to adopt these frameworks into their local contexts. However, the unique socio-cultural settings in such countries require these frameworks to be appropriately modified before they are adopted within the respective national context. The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of CPD in Qatar through comparing the UK as a benchmark and drawing corresponding and contrasting observations to formulate a roadmap towards developing a high level framework.</p>

scholarly journals Aeromedical evacuation: experiences from the UK military level 2 hospital in Bentiu, South Sudan, during Op TRENTON

2020 ◽  
pp. bmjmilitary-2020-001448 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leanne Jane Eveson ◽  
W Nevin ◽  
N Cordingley ◽  
M Almond
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Febrile Illness ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Diagnostic Group ◽  
Aeromedical Evacuation ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Uk ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Level 2

IntroductionAeromedical Evacuation (AE) is a vital role of the Defence Medical Services (DMS). With a far-reaching defence global footprint, an AE capability is crucial to enable movement of patients in the fastest, safest and least stressful way that meets or exceeds the level of care an injured or ill person may expect to receive in the UK. Operation (Op) TRENTON is a UK military humanitarian operation in support of the United Nations (UN) Mission in South Sudan.MethodsA retrospective analysis was carried out of all patients who underwent AE from the UK level 2 hospital at Bentiu during Op TRENTON over a 17-month period from June 2017 to October 2018.Results14 patients underwent AE. The median age was 36 (22–64) years and all patients were male. 21% of AEs were for UK personnel and 79% were for UN personnel. 29% of AEs were due to non-battle injury with the remainder due to disease. Musculoskeletal was the largest diagnostic group (n=4) followed by respiratory (n=3), cardiovascular (n=2), undifferentiated febrile illness (n=2), neurology (n=1), renal medicine (n=1) and psychiatry (n=1).ConclusionsPatients requiring AE from the level 2 hospital at Bentiu mostly had musculoskeletal and medical pathology, a stark contrast to the trauma patient cohort from operations in the past. The majority of patients had definitive care under the medical team highlighting the requirement for DMS physicians and the AE team, to be trained in acute, general and aviation medicine. The majority of AE moves were for UN personnel and on UN airframes, highlighting the importance of a sound understanding of the nations we are working with.

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